[外電] 30Q：國王能成為進攻籃板的強者嗎？

看板Kings (沙加緬度國王)作者kingpredrag (I love Man Utd!!!!!!!!!)時間15年前 (2010/08/25 20:24)推噓7(7推 0噓 0→)

留言7則, 7人參與討論串1/1

30Q: Can the Kings Be Elite Offensive Rebounders? 30Q：國王能成為進攻籃板的強者嗎？ http://0rz.tw/nIBu7 We're asking 30 questions about the Kings' 2010-11 season. Last season, the Kings finished sixth in the league in offensive rebounding. That performance was the best it had been in years. This was with Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Sean May, Andres Nocioni, Jon Brockman and, for half a season, Carl Landry manning the frontcourt. Things have changed up front. Samuel Dalembert, one of the best rebounders in the league, has replaced Hawes. Hassan Whiteside has replaced Brockman (a world-beating offensive rebounder) and May at the back of the rotation. DeMarcus Cousins has been added. There will no more small forward-masquerading-as-power forward nonsense. This is a longer, stronger, more athletic frontcourt. How will that affect the offensive rebounding? After the jump, I break it down based on the different frontcourt combinations' rebounding expectations. 又到了30問的時間。上季國王的進攻籃板排在聯盟第六，這是近年來最佳的成績，這項成績由阿屁、小湯、阿妹、Noci、洛克人和只打半季的藍錐組成的前場聯合貢獻。暑假我們的前場陣容有了大轉變，聯盟的籃板好手Sammy取代了阿屁，白邊取代了洛克人﹝進攻籃板怪物﹞和阿妹在板凳席的位置，另外我們還增加了表弟，終於不用再看到小前鋒代打大前鋒的戲碼，我們的前場現在又長、又粗、又有活力。這將會給我們的進攻籃板帶來何種影響？我將分別預估不同的前場組合所貢獻的籃板成績。 For veterans, I used last season's rebounding performance as the data here. For the two rookies, I took about 15 percent off their college performance. It's a rough approximation -- good enough for our purposes and in line with what each did at Vegas Summer League. For the backcourt, we'll use the default Tyreke Evans-Beno Udrih pairing. This will make our projections somewhat conservative -- Francisco Garcia is a better rebounder than Udrih -- but it's the default heading into the season, so there you have it. For the small forward position, I'm spliting the difference between Omri Casspi and Donte Greene, who should see similar minutes no matter who starts. Here are the most likely combinations. 我以上季的籃板成績作為數據基準，至於兩位新秀，則是取樣他們大學成績的85%，這是個粗估值，但已足夠做為我們預測的基準，同時也符合他們夏季聯盟的表現。後場採用reke和烏錐的組合，這將會讓我們的預估變的比較保守，因為老賈抓籃板的能力比烏錐好，但這是上季的主要後場組合，也是我們採取這個組合的原因，小前鋒部分我把卡卡和小綠的差異性抽離，因為不論誰先發，他們的上場時間應該都差不多。以下是數據圖 http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/423649/OffReb-tz-1011.jpg

The combos I expect most frequently are on the left, moving down to the least common. "Lan" is Carl Landry, "Dal" is Samuel Dalembert, "DMC" is DeMarcus Cousins, "JT" is Jason Thompson and "WS" is Hassan Whiteside. Seven of the nine combos would be projected to beat the league average for offensive rebounding. Six of the combos -- including expected pairings Landry-Cousins, Thompson-Dalembert and Thompson-Cousins -- would rate comparably with the league's best offensive rebounding team last season, the Grizzlies. Cousins-Dalembert would break the scales. The only expected unit projected worse than league average includes Landry-Thompson ... but that unit is basically at league average. Assuming everyone rebounds on offense as they have (in the NBA or college), we can expect the Kings to get plenty of offensive rebounds game after game, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they finished in the top three in the league in the category. Including either Cousins or Dalembert in any line-up projects the unit to rebound offensively better than league average, and in the other non-Whiteside case -- Landry-Thompson -- the difference is negligible. The big upgrades since last season have certainly bolstered the team's offensive rebounding. 我預估會最常出現的組合排在左側，由左至右依次遞減，Lan是藍錐、Dal是Sammy、DMC是表弟、JT是小湯、WS是白邊。九組配對中的七組被預期會高於聯盟的平均進攻籃板數，其中的藍錐表弟配、小湯Sammy配和小湯表弟配的數據幾乎就是上季最佳進攻籃板隊伍的成績，而表弟Sammy配則直接超越了上季最佳的成績，唯一一組會常出現但低於聯盟平均成績的是小湯藍錐配，但他們也逼近於聯盟平均。如果大家的籃板成績能如往常一樣，我們可以期待國王在每一場比賽中抓下大量的進攻籃板，而且球隊進攻籃板的成績如果排進聯盟前三也不會讓人訝異。不論任何先發組合，只要是和表弟Sammy配在一起，進攻籃板的預估值就一定高於聯盟平均值，至於在其他無白邊的組合中，即便是居於劣勢的小湯藍錐配，差距也不明顯，上季到本季球隊最大的進步將會從進攻籃板上顯現出來。 Why didn't I do this for defensive rebounding? With offensive rebounding, there is really no such thing as diminishing returns. Having two awesome offensive rebounders on the floor doesn't usually result in the pair taking offensive rebounds away from each other -- they take rebounds away from the opponents. That's not the case on defense, where there are substantial diminishing returns. Adding good defensive rebounders will help, but it's not simple addition. In other words: no, Cousins-Dalembert won't hold opponents to one offensive rebound in every 10 opportunities. (That's what a projection similar to the offensive rebounding one says. It's not right.) On defense, let's surmise we'll be improved. To what degree is more a guess than an estimate. 為何我不討論防守籃板？因為進攻籃板並不會擠壓到隊友的表現，有兩個進攻籃板好手在場上，並不代表他們會壓縮到彼此進攻籃板的成績，他們只會壓縮到對手的防守籃板成績。以上的論點不代表防守籃板，因為防守籃板會有邊際效應遞減的作用，防守籃板好手的加盟當然會有幫助，但它不會直接顯示在數據上。換句話說，表弟Sammy配不會讓對手每十次籃板機會就抓走一個進攻籃板，防守上我們只能大略地說我們會進步，至於進步到何種程度，用猜的部分大於用估算的部份。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.167.191.245