PTT體育區 / Lakers (洛杉磯 湖人)

[外電] Info - Walton

看板Lakers (洛杉磯 湖人)作者 (JoelEmbiid)時間6年前 (2019/02/27 18:14), 6年前編輯推噓124(128推 4噓 160→)
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Luke Walton, Lame Duck TAKING A GOOD LOOK AT THE FILM AND DATA TO ASSESS LUKE WALTON’S STAFF 看看一下的影片和數據來評估L.Walton以及整個團隊。 The Lakers have underperformed the expectations the team and their fans had this season. Luke Walton has been under fire as a result of that. Today, I want to take a look at the performance of Luke and his staff in the ways we should actually be assessing coaching staffs. 湖人本季的表現非常令人失望，也讓L.Walton受到嚴重的抨擊，我們今天就來檢視L.Walto n以及他的助教團。 I want to start out by saying that I haven’t been of the opinion that the Lakers should fire Luke Walton. In my eyes, their last reasonable chance to do that and have a chance to get a new staff, their principles, and their sets in was during the All-Star Break. We’re likely riding this out with Luke for the rest of the season, upon which time LA will have the chance to terminate his contract and explore other options. 我認為本季L.Walton並不會被湖人解雇，因為已經錯過時間點，我認為明星週時是最佳的 解雇時間，然後已經錯過時間，湖人將會在本季結束之後，在評估對於L.Walton的選項。 The options they can look at during the offseason will be far wider and better than the jobless options available today. LA can’t go grab an assistant like Ettore Messina from the Spurs or John Beilein and his staff from Michigan today. Any move made now will be from a smaller and worse candidate pool. I’ll save options for who should replace Luke and his staff for later on, once we have a better idea of who will be available. But I will say that I am 100.00% of the opinion that Walton and his staff are among the worst in the NBA and should be replaced this offseason. 在球季中能選擇的不多，但休賽期能選擇就多了，我認為L.Walton以及他的助教團是全NBA 最爛的，我也認為在休賽期這個團隊是百分之百會被替換的。 That aside, let’s get into it. EXCUSES / CONFOUNDING FACTORS 藉口/外在因素 First, let’s get these out of the way. 釐清以下幾件事情 ‧No, Luke didn’t hand pick this roster. ‧No, Luke didn’t injure Lonzo Ball, LeBron James, Josh Hart, etc. ‧Luke hasn’t been the one starting trade rumors for seemingly every player on the roster. Those all make his job more difficult, but certainly don’t inhibit us from assessing the performance of Luke Walton and his staff. And I don’t mean with wins and losses. 這些都會使他的工作變得困難，但不影響我們對於L.Walton的評價。 We are where we are. Luke was dealt a poor hand. But good coaches still make the most of what they’re given. A bad roster isn’t a unique issue. Injuries happen. Over the last two seasons of the Lakers actually trying to win games, they’ve had an average amount of games lost due to injuries, per InStreetClothes. The situation is what it is. So what did they do about it? L.Walton手上的牌並不好，但好的教練還是善用手上的這些牌打出應有的東西。球員名單 的壞並不是一個多大的問題。另外傷病問題，根據InStreetClothes，過去兩個賽季湖人在 爭取勝利，因為傷病左右球隊勝負的關鍵。然而情況就是這樣，但他們做了什麼？ Here are the ways I’ll be looking at Luke Walton and his coaching staff today: 1.Rotations 2.Scheme 3.Player development 4.Culture & Leadership 5.Relations with media and the front office I won’t be looking at roster construction and trades. I won’t be looking at prospect scouting. Neither of those two things relate to Luke and his staff. 我不會去看球隊陣容的交易以及建設，我也不會去看球探報告，我認為這兩件事與L.Walto n以及助教團無關。 EXPECTATIONS FOR LUKE WALTON L.Walton的期望 Our expectations for Luke Walton were unrealistic. There is a certain murky culture around coaches and accountability. We know every player and what they do, but almost none of us could rattle off every member of their favorite team ’s coaching staff and the roles and responsibilities of each member. 我們對於L.Walton的期望是不現實的，教練團之間對於劃分責任制這件事情有著模糊的界 線，我們了解每個球員以及他們能做的事情，但沒人可以抨擊他們每個成員的角色以及責 任。 The staffs are fine behind the scenes, but it makes speculation on our end as media or fans much more difficult. The lack of understanding that breeds from this cloudy profession leads to a lot of guessing. We saw that when Luke Walton was hired from the Warriors to take over for the Lakers. I directly interface with executives every day in my job. In my role I see what they do, I have a decent sense of what they’re responsible for, and I understand how to work with them to help achieve business success. I can even repeat some of the common phrases or outline at a high level our strategies. But if another firm were to hire me, I absolutely could not fulfill the roles and responsibilities of those individuals I work with. I could do my job and give you the human capital knowledge I provide today, because… ya know… that ’s what I was doing before. But I couldn’t set up a supply chain or any number of the technical things my co-workers perform on a daily basis, because my roles and responsibilities aren’t their roles and responsibilities, and our KSAs (knowledge, skills, and abilities) are far different. Hiring Luke Walton, who by all accounts was a player development coach with the Warriors, and expecting him to bring a skill set in Xs and Os that had nothing to do with his job with the Dubs. I’m sure he could recite and draw up several, but that’s a lot different from having the understanding to teach an offense and adapt it in the ways necessitated by today’s highly tactical NBA. I’d guess he could memorize and regurgitate some Xs and Os the way I could with managerial accounting. I can spit it back up, but there’s no way in hell I could teach it to people, or need to take my understanding of the concepts and morph them to changing conditions. No way. Sure, he can say ball movement is important and generally have the egalitarian strategy down, but that’s about as deep as it’s gotten. The schemes themselves are vastly different. The Warriors run the closest we have in the NBA to a motion offense, with tons of set plays sprinkled in. And the Warriors run probably the most sets and action in the NBA. They use strong and weak side actions to get their players in positions to succeed, constantly pressuring the defense and finding ways to get Steph Curry and Klay Thompson wide open, which is the exact opposite of what every single coach and team playing the Warriors want to allow. I recently heard Coach Gibson Pyper mention on a podcast that he had about 130 set plays diagrammed from the Dubs and Steve Kerr’s offense. You may know Coach Pyper as @HalfCourtHoops on Twitter, owner of the HalfCourtHoops YouTube page, and the owner of The Basketball Playbook website. On his site, he has a Kerr Warriors playbook breakdown for sale that includes: “Motion Offense Clinic (45 Minutes), Motion Offense Concepts (1 Hour 45 Minutes), Video Playbook (6 Hours), and a PDF Playbook (150 Pages).” 我最近從G.Pyper在廣播節目上說到，勇士整的進攻戰術大約有130個Set Play，他從一些 網站上可以看到把這些東西弄成一個Kerr Warriors Playbook拆成幾個細節在販售。 The Lakers’ offense is almost the antithesis of that, with probably less than 30 sets that could be drawn up if you locked scheme fans in a room and forced them to watch Laker film. It was so bad Walton’s first season that when I was diagramming plays for 2K, I watched dozens of games and just could not get to the number of sets they wanted from the Lakers, so I had to fit in a handful of sets from my own playbook. And the magic number they were looking for was 40 plays, not 130. 而湖人在進攻端戰術可能少於30個Set Play，在L.Walton第一個賽季時，在2K遊戲需要制 定球隊戰術時，湖人隊的戰術我看不到有多少戰術，剩下的必須靠自己腦補在想出戰術， 最後總共有40個Set Play戰術，不是130個。 Coach Pyper doesn’t have a Walton playbook up for sale, and I don’t expect that’ll change. I recently surveyed a handful of scheme experts to see if what I’ve been seeing is what they see, and the Lakers routinely came up as one of the worst teams schematically on offense. I’ll go into the Lakers’ offensive scheme in more detail later, but I wanted to set the stage and say that what Luke has brought to LA from Golden State stops at the high level talking points and general philosophies. 最近有針對湖人的進攻戰術策畫進行研究，稍後會有詳細的介紹。 I’ve heard that Luke Walton’s brief stint as acting head coach of the Warriors was the proof needed to say that he would be a great head coaching option. There’s a lot wrong with that. And it doesn’t come down to wins and losses (none of this does). What were his roles and responsibilities, and how would they compare to his duties in LA? If they didn’t align, you’re not learning much from what people would like to consider a Realistic Job Preview (RJP) in HR talk. 我聽說L.Walton在勇士短暫的擔任代理總教練，給他證明自己的時候，但這有非常多的錯 誤，在這段期間中，L.Walton責任是什麼？對於他現在湖人的職責相比呢？那麼高層在對 於人力資源的應用就是個錯誤。 ‧In that stint, Luke didn’t need to design an offense. One was in place. He had to call out sets, but that’s far different from taking a roster and designing 50+ set plays that align with their strengths and mitigate their weaknesses. So the design component wasn’t there. The teaching component wasn ’t either. Just because someone can draw up some good Xs and Os doesn’t mean they can teach the concepts and get players to understand, which is vital for execution and adjusting as defensive coverages change. Luke wasn’t challenged in that way. 在這段時間裡，Walton並不需要設計進攻戰術，他需要負責叫戰術，並且球隊陣容和其他 球隊有一定的落差，所以戰術設計、教導都不是L.Walton，所以L.Walton並沒有遭受挑戰 。 ‧Rotations are another area he technically had charge of, but we didn’t see much change. He didn’t need to put together that staff, which is an essential part of head coaching. 輪替陣容則是他負責的區域，但我們並沒有看到什麼改變，而輪替陣容的安排就是總教練 的職責。 ‧His in-game decision making was fine, but that is something that’s almost never noticed unless it’s horrific. And looking back at those games, his decision making wasn’t anything special. So while not a negative, not burning games down isn’t the thing you point to for justification on hiring a guy. 回顧L.Walton比賽中的決策並沒有太大的問題，但沒有burning games down。 ‧Luke’s competencies relating to the media or front office, albeit a smaller part of the job, wasn’t tested. 與媒體的應對只佔工作極小的部分，但沒有遇過什麼考驗。 ‧Getting buy-in from players not just to work on the drill you’re having them do, but buy into you and your philosophies when times get tough wasn’t something Luke has to experience and test himself with either. 要受到球員信任，不能只靠平時訓練，特別是Luke不曾在如此艱困的狀況下試圖讓球員信 服他和他的帶隊哲學。 (感謝StephenChou指正) So going into hiring Luke, we had a RJP that didn’t give us much, knowing he did player development, and a career for the Lakers to go off of. That doesn’ t mean he wouldn’t be a good head coach, but it certainly wasn’t enough from the outside to say he’d be a good one. You’d want to carefully vet him as an option and compare with others, which they didn’t do. Luke was the only candidate considered and interviewed. That’s poor HR. 從L.Walton擔任代理總教練來斷定他是否成為一個優秀教練是不夠的，但也不意味著他不 會成為一個優秀的教練，湖人隊在僱用時，沒有仔細審查並與他人比較，L.Walton成為唯 一的總教練僱用人選的候選人，這個人力資源的使用是不好的。 Ideally, you gauge how strong he is with specific areas of coaching (like the ones mentioned above). If you do hire him, you do all you can to put assistants around him that fill his gaps. This isn’t John Beilein or any of the hundreds of current head coaches who have staffs they have histories of working with that they’d bring with them. This was taking one piece of a puzzle and hoping it’d give you the same pretty picture that the full set did in Golden State. 理想情況下，如果你雇用他，但你必須盡可能利用好的助教團，去填補他的弱項。 Luke’s assistants are an absolutely paramount part of his hire, as they would be for any assistant who didn’t already have that group together. And with all the influence and money the Lakers do have, and with there being no coaching salary cap, they still compiled a group of assistants with minimal experience. Hell, one of the hires they made came from being a youth volleyball coach to being a Lakers assistant. That was a key miss, and we’ve felt the negative consequences of having people like Jesse Mermuys in positions they aren’t succeeding in. 助教團是絕對重要的一環，憑藉著湖人的影響力以及資金，但湖人卻沒有善用，反而雇用 一群在NBA經驗極少的助教團，還包括一位原本是排球青年隊的教練J.Mermuys，這就是一 個關鍵的失敗。 To summarize, Luke’s position wasn’t competed among a pool of candidates in a way you’d want, the expectations for what he’d bring to the table were off-base, and his assistant staff was put together in a way that is nothing like what you’d expect for the second most valuable NBA franchise (at $3.7B), and we’ve gotten out of the staff what was put into it. With all of that in mind, most have been very patient with Walton and his staff. It doesn’t hurt that the first season he was on board was one where the Lakers were more incentivized to lose than to win, or the idea that he’s been leading a roster devoid of established talent. The environment was such that real evaluation of Walton’s staff was difficult for most and had tons of excuses readily available. But almost three full seasons into their tenure, it’s time to look at what his staff actually does, not wins and losses, to grade them out. 從第一個賽季到現在，或許L.Walton在領導一個沒有固定的陣容，因這樣的環境，讓大家 對於評估整個教練團是困難的，有著太多可用的藉口，但任職三年多的來說，現在可以去 看看這些教練團實際上做了什麼？ ROTATIONS 輪替陣容 You would find unhappy people for all 30 teams if you were to ask fans and analysts about how their coaches handle rotations. It’s not a problem unique to the Lakers. 你問所有的球隊，沒有人對於輪替陣容是滿意的，這不是湖人才有的問題。 What is a bit different is the degree to which Luke Walton infuriates and confuses those watching the games. Hockey-style lineups, playing Rajon Rondo (who has been horrible for several weeks) for a 17 minute continuous stint vs New Orleans, the lineups put on the court with none of Ingram/LeBron/Kuzma that literally everyone but Luke Walton knows will give up a run. It’s bad, and it’s happening very often. 例如在面對鵜鶘的比賽，已經放棄比賽，而放著R.Rondo連續打17分鐘，而場上並沒有已經 Ingram、LeBron、Kuzma，這是非常不好的，但經常發生。 To get a better sense of the frequency, I asked Laker fans on Twitter just how often they’re left upset and confused about Walton’s rotations. The results weren’t promising… 我就在Twitter上問，對於L.Walton的輪替陣容感到沮喪或者困惑的情況。 https://twitter.com/T1m_NBA/status/1099469745919873024 That’s 1,005 responses, with over 75% of respondents saying that they’re left feeling that way about rotations for at least 60% of games they’ve watched. 45% said at least 80% of games. Feel free to check out Laker Twitter *checks notes* literally any game to see this expanded upon more. Or look at what Laker Twitter looked like for the past several years. The lack of growth in this area and pervasiveness of the issue is immensely aggravating. I won’t spend much time on it here, but it’ s very clearly an issue and one that we’re constantly seeing, and have consistently seen, for almost three full seasons. SCHEME 比賽計畫 To evaluate the team’s coaching staff, you’ll need to know who they are and what they do. Here is some pertinent information in that regard: Scheme Offensive Coordinator: Jesse Mermuys 進攻策畫者：J.Mermuys Defensive Coordinator: Brian Keefe 防守策畫者：B.Keefe Optimization Data* Offensive Optimization: Dead last among non-rookie active staffs Defensive Optimization: Dead last among non-rookie active staffs 進攻跟防守的Optimization Data在全聯盟都是排名倒數最後一名。 *Optimization data compares roster talent with roster performance to attempt to gauge how well players are deployed and utilized by the coaching staff. It attempts to look at how much coaches are getting out of the talent they’re given. Optimization data是用來評估聯盟間每位教練的數據。 If you’d like to see optimization data for every coach since the 2013-14 season, check out our $5/month Data & Tools premium package. 如果要看從2013-14年的Optimization data需要付費。 OFFENSE – 13TH PERCENTILE OPTIMIZATION / F GRADE F等級 I want to first dispel the narrative that the Lakers can’t run plays because they have LeBron James on their team. LeBron has played 15 full seasons in the NBA in four different stints with teams. For the first seven seasons with Cleveland, he ran plays. For the next four seasons with Miami, he ran plays. That’s 73% of LeBron’s tenure in the NBA going into this season. It’s the four most recent Cleveland seasons that have bred the idea that LeBron can’t, or won’t, run set plays. Cleveland did, but did have a high percentage of their offense that was primarily based around forcing a switch and then attacking those mismatches with Kyrie, LeBron, or Love, with shooters all around. It was a very legitimate strategy, and one that is very similar to how the Rockets play (and they also mix sets in). They had the personnel to do that. These Lakers do not. I also want to note that the scheme issues I’ll share today aren’t new this season or suddenly popped up when LeBron was added to the team. These have been consistent every year under Jesse Mermuys. Only a handful of plays at the start of the season, giving LA little chance to be strong offensively. Then a slow morph into an incredibly rudimentary offense that high school and college coaches all over the country would shake their heads at. Every year. 我今天要講的問題，先撇除L.James加入球隊後說發生的事情，而是在J.Mermuys每年都會 發生的事情，而他的基本進攻戰術，都會讓所有的高中、大學教練搖頭。 In general, running sets is important because, if actually designed and executed well, they create advantages for the offense through screening actions that get open shots or get players a step on their defender going downhill. You can do this with motion offense as well. It’s the use of “ actions,” the screening and purposeful movement of players, that generates the advantage. 一般來說，如果再跑陣地戰時，你能有一個好的設計以及執行，將會創造出不錯的進攻優 勢。 What we’ll often see with the Lakers are sets that use one action. One pin down. One flare screen. One AI cut. But the often stop there. 79.1% of the possessions I logged for a handful of games had no more than one action. That ’s bad. That’s really really bad. If you only try one attack before devolving into isolation, you’re giving yourself less opportunities to cause a mistake or compromise of the defense. 你常會看到湖人使用一個pin down、一個flare screen、一個AI cut，但就此打住球隊戰 術運轉，在一百回合的進攻中大約會發生79.1%，這是非常非常糟糕的，就會演變成只能 由Isolation來嘗試進攻，那麼你就會造成自己失誤的機率大增。 The following charter further details the percentage of plays with different volumes of action (BLOB/SLOB plays not counted): Actions Frequency 0 8.0% 1 71.1% 2 16.4% 3 3.2% 4 1.0% 5 0.3% Very infrequently will the Lakers get easy buckets from set plays. They do a good job with the couple lob sets they’ll run after timeouts, but there’s not much else in this regard. 湖人在半場進攻很少得到easy buckets，但他們暫停過後的兩人小組配合做得不錯，但沒 有執行得太多。 To get a better sense for the types of attacks the Lakers run, here’s a breakdown from the 5 games I logged: 為了更好理解湖人的進攻戰術，以下紀錄五場比賽： https://i.imgur.com/i4qFyTP.jpg
I logged 32 specific actions the Lakers ran, but grouped them together into these six “action families.” The execution rate shows the percentage of the time LA actually screened and ran off the screens properly. The success rate shows the percentage of the time the action run yielded an advantage over the defense. This also counts creating mismatches, or actions that set up an ensuing action. And on the far right, I listed some specific actions that fall within those families. 我記錄32種進攻戰術，但分為六大類，計算出每場比賽的使用率以及執行的成功率。在最 右邊列出那些進攻戰術分為哪一類。 I find a couple things interesting about that data. Almost every type of action has a higher execution rate than success rate. Due to poor spacing and lack of other attacking on the defense, it’s a lot easier to stop a Laker pin down or handoff than it might be against other teams through your help defense. We see this a ton with LA’s back screens, where the spacing and location of the passer in relation to the potential lob receiver are so messed up that there’s no chance for the action to actually yield points. Jesse Mermuys’ offensive scheme has low action volume. It’s the lowest of the 7 teams I’ve tracked, and I’d guess it’s among the lowest in the league. So the design is clearly not strong. Even if executed at normal levels, the poor design leaves the Lakers with a low ceiling for easy offense. Players are left to “make stuff happen,” which is never optimal. It ’s fine late clock, but shouldn’t be the go-to offense with 15 seconds left on the clock. J.Mermuys的進攻規劃非常的少，從我有關注的七支球隊中是最少的，我猜大概也是全聯盟 墊底。顯然缺乏設計，且糟糕的設計也讓湖人的上限降低，讓球員只能等待make stuff ha ppen，也讓球隊在進攻時間部屬上有問題。 Let’s compare some Laker plays with what we see from other teams. Here’s a simple horns set that gets a SG looking to attack downhill or a 3-point attempt (depending on how the defense plays the handoff), with options to hit a rolling 5-man, hit 4 slipping, or hit 3 coming off the staggered screens for a 3-point look. That stagger removes the chance you’ll see any help defense, making the dribble handoff much more effective. Simple yet solid. 接下來，利用湖人隊的進攻部屬來跟其他球隊進行比較。 Denver Nuggets - Horns DHO Stagger featured in our latest Plays of the Week. https://twitter.com/FastModel/status/1096227665110020096 Here’s a set from the Trail Blazers. No rocket science, but multiple scoring options that work together to help what are already good players look even better with easy shots. This very simple play is also from the horns alignment, and uses a weak side flare screen to look to either remove help on the primary action ball screen, or give you an open 3-pointer if the help defense does come. https://twitter.com/FastModel/status/1094317540694728705 And here’s a 76ers set that again gives the offense multiple opportunities to score. The ball screen that low on the court (a “logo” ball screen) prevents any help on the roll man, which LA could murder teams with by finding McGee lobs. https://twitter.com/FastModel/status/1094612154769117186 Now here’s what a Laker play might look like. A single action (a pin down in this case), with nothing setting it up and nothing following it. 接下來是湖人隊的進攻部屬情況 https://i.imgur.com/J3aTXJy.jpg
Also, as seen in the chart above, the actions work less than half the time, and are executed 56% of the time. Jesse Mermuys and Luke Walton struggle to get their players to set fundamental screens and run the correct ways off of screens. Such a large part of offense is execution, which is about focus and understanding rather than talent. The reads, especially in a rudimentary offense like what LA runs, are fairly easy. Go watch some Virginia, Michigan State, Michigan, Davidson, Tennessee, Purdue, Wisconsin, or Virginia Tech tape if you want to see some of the reads executed well from shooters fading/curling/coming off screens straight. It’s more about the teaching of concepts and drills to get players to understand how to see what the defense it taking away and react to it in a way that makes their own life easier and make themselves much more likely to get and score on an open shot. The Lakers leave much to be desired when it comes to offensive execution, and the fact that those errors have persisted for three different rosters and for vets and young players alike makes it clear it’s more on the unqualified coaching staff than the players. 關於這些戰術的教導、觀念、技巧，讓球員知道面臨什麼防守時，該如何去應對出一個進 攻戰術，讓球隊可以得到open shot的機會。在進攻的執行面，湖人有太多不足的地方，這 些錯誤，也顯示出這些不合格的教練團們的問題。 But the offensive scheme isn’t all doom and gloom. There are a couple concepts they do use well, such as their step up ball screens in their secondary break, which either get a ball handler going downhill or get a mismatch early in the shot clock. LA executed on those 79% of the time they tried them, so there’s one of the few designed and executed actions the Lakers add value to their offense through. I’d certainly love to see more in terms of secondary breaks, since it’s a great way to attack before the defense is set and there are certain actions that are even more effective in those scenarios, but it’s a start. Things also tend to go well on the rare occasions that Ingram is used off of handoffs, cross screens, and back screens. I’d love to see more of those types of actions to get him going downhill off of the catch, rather than off of a live dribble (where he’s still less refined). We have seen some new positive developments post-All-Star Break that aren’t reflected in that data. The Lakers have discovered pin-in screens, and have done a better job finding shooters off these types of flares for shots. They’ ve also been much better about making off-ball screeners threats to score if the defense switches, through sealing their man and making themselves a dump-off target. Moving forward, I don’t expect the Lakers to suddenly make great strides with their offensive scheme, barring some consultants being brought in. They’ ve run similar stuff for three years, and the quality of that offense has stayed fairly consistent throughout. 對於未來我不認為，湖人在對於進攻戰術的部屬計畫中有多大的進步，除非能有一些顧問 能加入他們。畢竟這些東西他們已經用了三年，且進攻的質量保持一致。 The lowest hanging fruit for improvement, however, would be to implement some freelance motion on post ups and pick and roll plays. Right now everything is stagnant in those scenarios. With some simple principles, players will know where their options are and the team would be creating more pressure with action rather than standing around or using one cut against a set defense. Split cuts on post ups and weak side flare screens on pick and rolls should be very doable, and would make a huge difference in creating extra scoring opportunities that simultaneously remove the help defense dampening the effectiveness of those primary actions LA runs. 然而目前最好改善的是，再進行Post Up以及P&R的執行中，做的細膩一些，讓球員透過簡 單的原則，球員知道他們的能傳球的點在哪，而不是小組配合的人在打比賽，其他人站在 一旁看，讓強邊再進行擋拆時弱邊的球員進行flare Screen，創造出得分機會。 In addition, it would behoove the team to have a more organized late-clock offense. Once the shot clock gets to 8 seconds, if someone isn’t currently attacking, get into a go-to action. If LeBron is on the court, maybe it’s a Bron perimeter or mid-post iso. If he’s not, perhaps it’s a pick and roll or a pin down. Something to get the ball in the hands of the right players late in the clock so we don’t need to see Rondo or McGee late-clock iso offense anymore. 此外在讀秒階段，如果LBJ在場上，當然是把球給LBJ進行Isolation，如果LBJ不在，那麼 或許使用P&R或者Pin Down，讓球轉移到正確的球員手上去執行進攻，就不用在讀秒階段看 到Rondo或McGee在最後時刻在Isolation。 Until the Lakers pick it up here, they’ll have a ton of stress on individual players to create plays. An off-day or injury from just one key guy can cause greater issues in that kind of offense. But that failure to put players in positions to succeed and Ingram being put in pick and rolls with stagnant players off-ball or in a plethora of iso situations will instead be viewed as Brandon Ingram just not being good. 如果未能把球員放在正確的位置，就會導致像B.Ingram陷入停滯不前的窘境。 Please, Jesse Mermuys. Please. Side note: It’s fair to wonder what these promising young players would look like if they weren’t operating in what our data considers to be the worst environment for them to shine. We might see what appears to be a large jump in development next season purely from a coaching change and average or better scheme. Our player talent grades, which attempt to remove the impact scheme and environment has, have the comparison between Celtics and Lakers young players much closer than most realize. DEFENSE – 17TH PERCENTILE OPTIMIZATION / F GRADE F等級 Brian Keefe runs the Laker defense. I wouldn’t say the scheme has been anywhere near as poor as the offense, but it’s been pretty vanilla. I’ll routinely see opposing teams use creative tactics to stymie Laker plays (3-man switches, pre-rotating in anticipation of actions, etc.). The Lakers don’t do that. The one creative tactic I’ve noticed LA using under Walton has been when they put a player like Josh Hart on someone like Tarik Black or Draymond Green defensively who can’t usually punish you in that mismatch. That’s great, but you need to have more than that in your bag of tricks in today’s NBA. B.Keefe是負責湖人防守計畫，但我不會說防守計畫跟進攻計畫一樣差，但防守計畫很vani lla。我很常看到對手利用有創意的防守來阻礙湖人隊的進攻play (三人換防、預先輪轉等 方法），但湖人沒這種東西。湖人有創意的防守我只有看到一個，是Walton拿Josh Hart這 類型的球員去防守像是T.Black或Draymond Green，即使對他們是錯位，但他們也討不到便 宜。這個很棒，但你需要有更多這樣的東西才足以應付現在的NBA。 (感謝alankira與rex7152指正) When I say LA’s defensive scheme is vanilla, it’s that lack of creativity along with a standard game plan that results in making it quite cookie cutter. The Lakers seemingly go into many of these matchups the way many of us do in 2K, where our defensive coverages are whatever the defauts are and we don’t change them based on who we play (I do, but nobody likes that guy taking 10 minutes to switch things around when you want to play with friends). This isn’t to say they always do this, but they apply the same game plan a lot more than I’m used to, compared to what my high school and AAU teams did, what the teams do at those levels I’ve consulted with, what the college teams do I watch consistently, and from what I see other NBA teams do. I don’ t have any numbers for this, but LA definitely seems to be on the low end of customization in this regard. Many times it works okay, sometimes it’s horrific, and sometimes it’s the perfect strategy. Praising the staff for an amazing game plan when the round peg finally meets the round hole isn’t the approach I’d take. LA has players with certain limitations, but they do little to work around that and mix up coverages defensively, opponent by opponent. Even in-game, they adjust very slow to opposing teams burning their same screen coverages the same ways over and over again. You can’t win in the playoffs like that. Luke and Brian need to figure this out, or LA will struggle in the postseason defensively more than they have so far during the regular season. And in 2019, there’s virtually nothing teams can do that hasn’t been done before, so it’s just a matter of having the right people on staff with the knowledge and research to understand that rock beats scissors and scissors beats paper. Overall, I’d say LA is probably a C- strategically and a D tactically on defense. Then comes in execution. Many of LA’s defensive issues come down to veterans not executing and lots of either blown help coverage or over helping. Very fundamental issues, and ones that have seemed to get worse as the year has gone on for the Rondos and McGees of the team. Part of coaching is getting guys to go out there and play hard. And playing hard isn’t just diving on the floor and boxing out (which LA doesn’t do well at all), but focusing on defensive execution and doing the little things. This is particularly the case on defense. When it comes down to it, there’s little that separates NBA defenses from what we see in college or high school. Icing screens is still not mainstream at those levels, but most of the concepts are the same. At any level, it’s more about executing fundamentals defensively than it is trying to mastermind sets the way it can be on offense. This staff hasn’t been able to get that buy-in from capable players to do those little things, and it hurts them on a daily basis. (防守這段一起翻譯) 湖人隊現在既定的防守計畫是非常非常基本的，湖人在面對各球隊時並沒有非常明確且應 對的防守計畫，也讓人看起來湖人的防守計畫非常的呆板沒有對策。教練的職責除了讓球 員努力打球之外，對於場上的防守細節做的非常非常的差，當教練無法給予球員正確的防 守觀念以及計畫，這樣只是在每天每天的傷害球員。 PLAYER DEVELOPMENT 球員發展 One area I’ve heard listed as a pro for Luke Walton and his staff has been player development. In his first year or two, when the team realistically had no chance to be a contender, this was the focus. So how well has he done in this regard? 我聽說L.Walton和他的助教團是有列出球員的發展方向，但球隊在第一年跟第二年是在沒 有競爭力的情況下，那這部分就顯得非常重要，而他做得如何？ We’ve recently developed Player Development ratings for coaching staffs at BBall Index. These ratings look at players who played under a coach for year A and year B, then measure the growth in a particular talent area from A -> B against the expected growth in that skill set, which is calculated from our database of player growth from the 2013-14 season until today, and factors in advanced position (Guard/Wing/Big) and age to calculate the expectation. 根據BBall Index對於教練制定球員發展的評級，考察A年與B年在同一個教練下，球員發展 的情況。 Here is how Luke Walton’s staff has graded out in each area, with grades listed being a conversion of percentiles against the other coaching staffs since 2013-14. 以下是L.Walton以及助教團在從2013-14年來對於球員發展的評級。 Talent Category Grade Perimeter Defense A Interior Defense A- Post Play B+ Off-Ball Movement B Finishing C One on One D+ Roll Gravity D+ Perimeter Shooting F Playmaking F Offensive Rebounding F Defensive Rebounding F Overall, Walton’s staff grades out as a D- Offensively, an A Defensively, and an A- Overall. The staffs rating out ahead of Luke’s are led by Rick Carlisle, Brad Stevens, Alvin Gentry, and Fred Hoiberg. Right behind Luke’s staff are those led by Gregg Popovich, J.B. Bickerstaff, and Steve Kerr. 整體來說Walton以及助教團得到的評價是D級進攻、A級防守，整體評價A。 (防守評價A讓我有點疑問) While player development coach turned head coach Luke Walton didn’t bring the scheme we were hoping he would from the Warriors, his staff has developed players fairly well overall, and especially defensively. His staff doesn’t utilize his guys well to optimize that talent, but the talent is certainly growing from year to year. If you’d like to see player development data for every coach since the 2013-14 season in every category, check out our $5/month Data & Tools premium package. CULTURE & LEADERSHIP 球隊文化&領導 We’ve now moved to the off-court portion of the analysis. The other area it was expected that Luke would positively impact the Lakers was with his Warriors-like approach to culture. Guys would be having fun, they’d have an egalitarian method of play and playing time rewarded, and the team would play hard behind their player coach of a leader. Some of that has materialized. Some not as much. The players seem to have fun. Or did earlier in the season. That’s definitely gone down recently, but the locker room does generally seem to fit with what Walton wants. LA comes to play hard on most days, but they do struggle with playing focused and executing the basics. This piece of it, and particularly the defensive buy-in to basic concepts that just require some focus and a little work, isn’ t constantly there. Luke’s rotations and their relation to play also don’t seem aligned, with players like Julius Randle being seemingly nitpicked and benched while others, like Lance and Rondo this season, consistently not executing and not facing any negative consequences from it. Game to game or in-game, the execution by Luke of the egalitarian component doesn’t quite seem right. Where Luke has done a decent job, especially under the circumstances, is how little we hear about a fractured locker room. With as many 1-year guys and trade rumors as we’ve had in his three years, it’s impressive how little we hear about times like the voiced displeasure from some of the Laker veterans a couple weeks back. RELATIONS WITH MEDIA AND THE FRONT OFFICE 與媒體及高層的關係 The last piece if this breakdown is how Luke relates to the media and front office. I’d say he’s been fine in both areas. He’s by no means become an enemy of the media or created any hostility, and does a good job giving positive answers and deflecting. Lots of coach speak and little substance, for sure. But that’s the norm, not a criticism. We don’t have much to go off of when it comes to Luke’s relationship with the front office. A big part of that his how 99% of it is behind the scenes. Part of it is that the front office isn’t one that we can assume is acting logically. 我會說L.Walton在這兩個關係應對的非常好，他不會成為媒體的敵人或製造敵意，能夠在 應答上做的好。而與球隊高層的關係，我們沒啥好說的，我們得到的資訊有99都是場邊的 花絮，我也不是高層的人，不是我們可以假設的地方。 LA’S PERFORMANCE AND PLAYOFF CHANCES 湖人隊的表現以及晉級季後賽的機會 While the Lakers haven’t seen the current roster all healthy at the same time, we did see the pre-trade roster healthy at the start of the season. And that performance may have set expectations higher than they should have. The Lakers had a 20-14 record before LeBron went down, good for a 48 win pace. In reality, the team was playing much worse. Based on the luck-adjusted data, which will attempt to suss out the variance and randomness that will natural appear in the data (especially at a smaller sample like that), the Lakers with LeBron for that stretch were performing to the level of a team that’d be expected to be 16.9-17.1, on pace for 40.7 wins. The difference between 48 wins and 41 wins last season would have been the difference between a tie for the 4 seed in the West and the 11 seed. So while LeBron James is undeniably a monster on the court, it’s very possible the Lakers were already a bad team that were just being held together by perhaps the greatest player to ever play the game. Since that time, the Lakers have played like a 30-52 full-season team according to the luck-adjusted data. They’re going to need to flip a hell of a switch to make it to the playoffs. In the small sample since the All-Star Break, they’ve played like a 43-39 full-season team. Based on BBall Reference playoff odds, it looks like 45 wins makes the playoffs as the eighth seed. That would require them to be winning at a 57-25 full-season pace for the rest of the season, which is what the Warriors’ actual full season record is projected to be on their site. The odds aren’t good at all, and will require a completely different kind of performance from LA we haven’ t seen this season. 上賽季48勝與41勝的差距就是西區排名第4跟第11的差距，而目前看起來45勝成為西區第8 晉級季後賽的話，以現在湖人的戰績來說，需要在接下來的比賽中取得全勝。 TYING IT ALL TOGETHER So where does that leave us? Walton seems to do okay to above average with the lesser valued off-the court components. He’s done well with player development, but offensively is lacking quite a bit. And the rotations and scheme are major liabilities. With the Lakers looking to compete, and do it through adding talent in free agency, the focus should be on strengths in Walton’s staff’s two weakest areas, rotations and scheme. Those are the problems, but what are the solutions? LA had a window of time this year where they could have moved on from Walton and given a new staff some time to get their feet under them. That time has passed. But that time will come again this offseason, and that’s when I predict the Lakers will make a move. They have all the information they need on Walton and his staff to reasonably predict future performance. Hiding behind the roster not being fully healthy to say they can’t assess the staff would be a gross misunderstanding of how to conduct performance management. There was also a time this season to make assistant coach changes, and that window may still be open. Coincidentally, the areas the Lakers need the most growth are ones that can be improved by getting new assistants. That would allow the consistency of having the same head coach to hopefully keep the locker room together. That’s my pipe dream for the rest of this season, but it’s also likely just a dream now that we’ve passed the All-Star Break, which would have afforded LA a chance to install new offense. I’ll break down coaching options in more detail at a later date, but the candidates like Mark Jackson, Jason Kidd, and Ty Lue don’t look all that appealing once their scheme film and optimization and development data is broken down. The names that will ultimately end up being top contenders are likely ones the Lakers can’t hire today. There’s a reason those candidates don’t have coaching jobs today. But gun to my head, I’d say the best options available today that would be worth a deeper look are Stan Van Gundy, Jeff Van Gundy (I’m skeptical), and Kevin McHale. Not great compared to the names I’m about to rattle off. Among the college ranks, John Beilein, Mark Few, Bob McKillop, Bill Self, Tony Bennett, Tom Izzo, Greg Gard, or Jay Wright would all be viable (if interested). If they were to get fired for some reason Alvin Gentry or Brett Brown are both very good coaches with great data to back up their schemes and leadership. Even with just adding assistants to the current staff, defensive guru Luke Yaklich or Brad Soderberg would be good options from college and likely attainable if LA were to throw money at them. NBA assistants like Ettore Messina would be worth a look as well. With any assistants, you’d want to do a lot of extra vetting to understand who is responsible for what and what their talent levels are in the core competencies of the job. The odds are, someone among those 11 head coach options not currently available will have interest during this offseason. I’d take any of them and their staffs over Walton’s staff in a heartbeat, and it has nothing to do with their wins and losses or coach speak in interviews. It’s about what the key components of being a head basketball coach are, and how good each of those candidates is at each of those competencies. 簡單說就是在季中更換教練的時間或者補強助教團的時間已過，然而接下來只剩在休賽期 看湖人怎麼處理總教練這個位置，或者是利用助教團去彌補起L.Walton的弱項。而提到總 教練人選有Mark Jason、Jason Kidd、Ty Lue，甚至是Stan Van Gundy、Jeff Van Gundy 、Kevin McHale。在NCAA中如果這些教練感興趣的話有，John Beilein(Michigan)、Mark Few(Gonzaga)、Bob McKillop(Davidson)、Bill Self(Kansas)、Tony Bennett(Virginia) 、Tom Izzo(Michigan State)，Greg Gard(Wisconsin)或Jay Wright(Villanova)。或者防 守大師Luke Yaklich、Brad Soderberg，或現在NBA其他球隊的助理教練例如Ettore Messi na，湖人隊對於教練人選要有更大量的觀察以及評估，了解他們各自的工作核心已經能力 。 來源：http://www.bball-index.com/luke-walton-lame-duck/ --- 文章有點長，針對戰術規劃走位的細節沒有加以翻譯，主要針對大方向的問題進行翻譯， 如果有好的翻譯說法請指正。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 110.26.166.55 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Lakers/M.1551262493.A.71D.html
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02/27 18:19, 6年前 , 1F
推~ 這篇真的超~長
02/27 18:19, 1F
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02/27 18:19, 6年前 , 2F
推～這篇真的值得一看～
02/27 18:19, 2F
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02/27 18:19, 6年前 , 3F
推好文
02/27 18:19, 3F
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02/27 18:21, 6年前 , 4F
先推
02/27 18:21, 4F
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02/27 18:21, 6年前 , 5F
亞利桑那親友團 不需要投籃教練 讚
02/27 18:21, 5F
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02/27 18:23, 6年前 , 6F
推，教練團真的慘到不行XD
02/27 18:23, 6F
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02/27 18:25, 6年前 , 7F
抽抽抽抽狀元…
02/27 18:25, 7F
噓
02/27 18:27, 6年前 , 8F
青年排球教練
02/27 18:27, 8F
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02/27 18:28, 6年前 , 9F
看完明白自己對luke一部分火的原因的詳情了
02/27 18:28, 9F
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02/27 18:29, 6年前 , 10F
他真的沒甚麼戰術
02/27 18:29, 10F
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02/27 18:30, 6年前 , 11F
其他部份先不說，但這篇個部份寫錯了，排球教練是 Jud
02/27 18:30, 11F
噓
02/27 18:30, 6年前 , 12F
幹 2k戰術都比湖人多XD
02/27 18:30, 12F
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02/27 18:31, 6年前 , 13F
Buechler 去年離職了。Mermuys 之前在暴龍做球員發展的。
02/27 18:31, 13F
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02/27 18:32, 6年前 , 14F
本身是籃球影片剪接出身，當初評價算頗好的～
02/27 18:32, 14F
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02/27 18:32, 6年前 , 15F
血統正確媒體才這麼挺他
02/27 18:32, 15F
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02/27 18:33, 6年前 , 16F
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02/27 18:33, 16F
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02/27 18:33, 6年前 , 17F
Mermuys是從Casey那挖來的，不過現在看來暴龍當初進攻
02/27 18:33, 17F
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02/27 18:33, 6年前 , 18F
戰術多半是Nurse的功勞
02/27 18:33, 18F
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02/27 18:34, 6年前 , 19F
爛教練快滾吧 叫老詹扛禁區就是沒料的證明
02/27 18:34, 19F
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02/27 18:34, 6年前 , 20F
那段我會解釋成 要受到球員信任，不能只靠平時訓練
02/27 18:34, 20F
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02/27 18:34, 6年前 , 21F
看完覺得IG&kuz 能在這麼惡劣的環境成長 真厲害
02/27 18:34, 21F
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02/27 18:34, 6年前 , 22F
特別是Luke不曾在如此艱困的狀況下試圖讓球員信服他
02/27 18:34, 22F
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02/27 18:35, 6年前 , 23F
和他的帶隊哲學
02/27 18:35, 23F
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02/27 18:36, 6年前 , 24F
難怪我覺得球隊進攻都變成個人單打秀 得分很難一樣
02/27 18:36, 24F
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02/27 18:37, 6年前 , 25F
Luke沒有參與到一個體系的建造過程吧 沒有經驗建立體系
02/27 18:37, 25F
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02/27 18:44, 6年前 , 26F
疼總還是從基層練起比較好
02/27 18:44, 26F
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02/27 18:45, 6年前 , 27F
球員發展整體評價A是怎麼來的....
02/27 18:45, 27F
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02/27 18:45, 6年前 , 28F
結論：你疼跟他的團隊就是渣
02/27 18:45, 28F
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02/27 18:45, 6年前 , 29F
華粉快點滑出來護航呀
02/27 18:45, 29F
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02/27 18:47, 6年前 , 30F
去年騎士陣容也很爛也沒玩到那麼慘
02/27 18:47, 30F
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02/27 18:48, 6年前 , 31F
罰球跟三分連兩年都那麼爛還不找投籃教練
02/27 18:48, 31F
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02/27 18:49, 6年前 , 32F
在東區當然不會慘
02/27 18:49, 32F
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02/27 18:50, 6年前 , 33F
沒體系有部分的原因也是因為一堆打工仔吧
02/27 18:50, 33F
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02/27 18:51, 6年前 , 34F
看起來助教團問題很大
02/27 18:51, 34F
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02/27 18:51, 6年前 , 35F
在哪區根本沒關係？進攻防守都最低評價
02/27 18:51, 35F
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02/27 18:52, 6年前 , 36F
罰球跟三分還比不上去年騎士的一根毛吧
02/27 18:52, 36F
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02/27 18:53, 6年前 , 37F
該留的不留 隨便亂丟 當然一堆打工仔
02/27 18:53, 37F
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02/27 18:54, 6年前 , 38F
說打工仔 打工仔一開始還很認真勒
02/27 18:54, 38F
噓
02/27 18:54, 6年前 , 39F
你疼不滾湖人不會好^^
02/27 18:54, 39F
還有 213 則推文
還有 1 段內文
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02/28 09:38, 6年前 , 253F
沒有進攻體系真的是大問題！！
02/28 09:38, 253F
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02/28 10:07, 6年前 , 254F
我其實不是很懂Bez那個時候怪聲是為什麼，頂多上場時間不
02/28 10:07, 254F
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02/28 10:08, 6年前 , 255F
穩定，但他家裡有事磨合也沒多少，不放他我覺得可以理解
02/28 10:08, 255F
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02/28 10:08, 6年前 , 256F
搞不好怪聲他只是被波及 交易掉單純是沒辦法保證上場時間?
02/28 10:08, 256F
推
02/28 10:14, 6年前 , 257F
早說他跟白痴一樣一堆人不信
02/28 10:14, 257F
推
02/28 10:16, 6年前 , 258F
Bez有一場對Luke提出質疑而已 luke嫌他不夠無私
02/28 10:16, 258F
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02/28 10:17, 6年前 , 259F
但我記得同時質疑教練得還有mcgee，Bez 自幹2球就被罵
02/28 10:17, 259F
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02/28 10:18, 6年前 , 260F
那場我記得bez 7分鐘 fg 2-4吧，我覺得質疑教練沒問題..
02/28 10:18, 260F
推
02/28 10:22, 6年前 , 261F
#1SLfeI15 板友寫的文章 可以看那天bez發生什麼事
02/28 10:22, 261F
推
02/28 10:28, 6年前 , 262F
其實我覺得beasley不管有沒有怪聲也是絕對能換其他人
02/28 10:28, 262F
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02/28 10:28, 6年前 , 263F
試試的，問題是搭上了Zu而已
02/28 10:28, 263F
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02/28 10:32, 6年前 , 264F
逼死你上去就是不要幹分用的？不是很懂這個邏輯是什麼。
02/28 10:32, 264F
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02/28 10:32, 6年前 , 265F
不就是要。
02/28 10:32, 265F
推
02/28 10:33, 6年前 , 266F
我是一直覺得我疼不喜歡ZU...
02/28 10:33, 266F
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02/28 10:33, 6年前 , 267F
主打無私籃球，看起來比較像無頭蒼蠅。
02/28 10:33, 267F
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02/28 10:34, 6年前 , 268F
記得有場ZU表現很好 我疼：我在訓練場看到他一直在練習
02/28 10:34, 268F
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02/28 10:34, 6年前 , 269F
這真的不知是三小回答...
02/28 10:34, 269F
推
02/28 10:37, 6年前 , 270F
意思是讚美Zu一直都有準備好吧。
02/28 10:37, 270F
推
02/28 10:43, 6年前 , 271F
這根本沒話找話吧 XD
02/28 10:43, 271F
推
02/28 10:54, 6年前 , 272F
KD鐵起來KT也能補上 羨慕
02/28 10:54, 272F
推
02/28 10:55, 6年前 , 273F
B-easy出怪聲還好 且很正常 那段Kuz受傷硬上 打得不穩
02/28 10:55, 273F
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02/28 10:55, 6年前 , 274F
結果B-easy時間也沒多 多打個兩球被靠夭自私
02/28 10:55, 274F
推
02/28 10:57, 6年前 , 275F
我疼對喜歡的跟不喜歡的差很多
02/28 10:57, 275F
推
02/28 10:58, 6年前 , 276F
湖人教練團其實最大問題就是對球員定位搞很爛
02/28 10:58, 276F
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02/28 10:58, 6年前 , 277F
然後經驗不足~
02/28 10:58, 277F
推
02/28 10:59, 6年前 , 278F
好像沒有點幹話屬性就沒辦法當湖人總仔一樣，我們下
02/28 10:59, 278F
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02/28 10:59, 6年前 , 279F
個教練大概也是幹話滿天飛
02/28 10:59, 279F
推
02/28 11:03, 6年前 , 280F
結果今天先發好像改了 Mcgee被拔了?
02/28 11:03, 280F
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02/28 11:04, 6年前 , 281F
據球爹微博 五小先發XD
02/28 11:04, 281F
推
02/28 11:05, 6年前 , 282F
開場就五小 姆斯還是褲子扛C？？
02/28 11:05, 282F
推
02/28 11:05, 6年前 , 283F
政治正確才可以帶我湖的這種文化，根本是毒瘤
02/28 11:05, 283F
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02/28 11:06, 6年前 , 284F
Mike Trudell twitter也證實了
02/28 11:06, 284F
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02/28 11:06, 6年前 , 285F
Rondo IG LBJ Kuz Bullock XDDD
02/28 11:06, 285F
推
02/28 11:13, 6年前 , 286F
怎麼媒體有點戳姆斯的味？說他因爲去工作室而缺席對勇士？
02/28 11:13, 286F
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02/28 11:28, 6年前 , 287F
Wagner咧？Muscala咧？不然上Williams啊
02/28 11:28, 287F
推
02/28 15:02, 6年前 , 288F
有人知道為什麼要顧一個排球教練嗎? 好奇....
02/28 15:02, 288F
推
02/28 15:21, 6年前 , 289F
那排球教練以前是NBA球員啊，只是去當女兒球隊教練吧
02/28 15:21, 289F
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02/28 15:23, 6年前 , 290F
jud buechler是喬丹三連霸時期的隊友
02/28 15:23, 290F
推
03/01 13:43, 6年前 , 291F
沒講到最大毒瘤「魔術」
03/01 13:43, 291F
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03/01 13:43, 6年前 , 292F
有他在，對於未來選人感到不樂觀
03/01 13:43, 292F
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