[轉錄][外電] Using Math To Determine the Ballhogs

看板LeBronJames (雷霸龍·詹姆士 - 詹姆斯)作者d88647511 (Ricky Rubio)時間14年前 (2011/03/20 23:13)推噓1(1推 0噓 7→)

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※ [本文轉錄自 Thunder 看板 #1DXUq8jl ] 作者: poning (今天總算有太陽) 看板: Thunder 標題: [外電] Using Math To Determine the Ballhogs 時間: Sun Mar 20 20:03:17 2011 數學或統計我都不會…內容自然以英文為準，翻譯有錯的話請指正！ === http://tinyurl.com/46t5ec6 Using Math To Determine the Ballhogs Even the casual fan knows the NBA is full of chuckers—those frustrating players who hoist up fade-away jumpers in the face of a double-team. But with the help of advanced math, we can finally pinpoint the greatest offenders. 即使是普通的運動迷都知道NBA有很多濫投王---這些令人沮喪的球員，面對包夾，依舊會來個後仰跳投。但是透過進階數學的幫忙，我們終於可以找出誰是最濫投的球員了。 Matt Goldman, a graduate student at the University of California, San Diego, and Justin Rao, a research scientist at Yahoo Labs, have identified the three biggest "overshooters" in the NBA: the Thunder's Russell Westbrook, the Bobcats' Tyrus Thomas and the Lakers' Lamar Odom. Conversely, they named the Hornets' Chris Paul the biggest "undershooter." Matt Goldman是一名加州大學聖地牙哥分校的研究生， Justin Rao則是Yahoo Labs的研究員，他們兩位已經列出三名NBA最嚴重的濫投王是誰了---Russell Westbrook、Tyrus Thomas與Lamar Odom。同時他們也認為Chris Paul是NBA最該多投一點的謙虛型球員。 To compile the lists, the researchers tracked 400,000 possessions over the past four full seasons and noted the time on the shot clock when the first shot went up (they excluded fast-breaks). Then they used a statistical procedure known as a "Maximum Likelihood Estimation" to find each player's "marginal shot"—the most difficult shot each player is consistently willing to take. Using this information, the researchers were able to analyze when in the shot clock each player takes these low-percentage shots and how efficient he is at making them. Finally, they ran a statistical test to see how a player's shot selection compares to how his team would have fared otherwise. The results showed which players would help their team by taking more difficult shots and which should be more bashful. 為了完成這個名單，他們追蹤了過去4個球季約400,000次的進攻次數，並紀錄24秒進攻時間內，第一次出手的時間（他們扣除快攻）。他們使用最大近似值(Maximum Likelihood Estimation)這個統計方法來找出每個球員的「貧乏的投籃」---意指在他們所有投籃之中最困難的、對手球員樂於看見的投籃。利用這些資訊，研究者得以分析每個球員在進攻時間內命中率最低的投籃是發生在何時與每個投籃的效率值為何。最後，他們進行顯著性檢驗 (statistical test)來觀察球員的投籃選擇與球隊得到利益或否。統計結果表示出哪個球員最應該多嘗試投籃，哪個球員應該要謹慎一點。 Goldman said overshooters are generally players who try to create shots too early in the shot clock. In Westbrook's case, the Thunder would be better off if he passed more. Undershooters, meanwhile, are often stars who choose not to shoot as much as they probably should—LeBron James should have actually shot more during his time with Cleveland. Goldman說濫投王一般來說是那種進攻時間剩很多的時候就投籃的人。對雷霆的Westbrooks 來說，如果他多傳球，會對球隊比較好。相反的，謙虛型的球員，就算是該他投的球，很多時候也會選擇不要投。話說LBJ在騎士時確實應該多投一點。 —Jared Diamond =============================================================================== Who Shoots Too Much? 誰投太多球？ Over the past four full seasons, here are the NBA's biggest "overshooters" and "undershooters," based on a formula that estimates when a player should shoot and when he'd be better off passing. 以下是根據過去四個完整球季的資料，以上面提到的統計方法，統計出來的該多傳球的濫投王與該自私點的謙虛型球員。 OVERSHOOTERS (Rating*) UNDERSHOOTERS (Rating) 濫投王太謙虛啦！ Russell Westbrook (-2.98) Chris Paul (+5.34) Tyrus Thomas (-1.98) Brandon Roy (+5.13) Lamar Odom (-1.94) LeBron James (+4.93) Monta Ellis (-1.91) Al Jefferson (+4.62) *Zero is an optimal rating *0是理想中最佳值 -- 哲學的義務，是去除因誤解而生的幻想。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.132.168.231 ※ poning:轉錄至看板 NBA 03/20 20:03

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