[Sickels] Francisco Liriano Scouting Report

看板MIN-Twins作者tradewind (來自南方的貿易風)時間20年前 (2005/07/28 11:15)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

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噓，偷偷把電子信的內容貼出來： SCOUTING REPORT: Francisco Liriano Francisco Liriano, LHP, Minnesota Twins Bats: L Throws: L HT: 6-2 WT: 180 DOB: October 26, 1983 Year Team League G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV ERA 2003 San Jose A 1 1 0.2 5 4 4 0 2 0 0 1 0 54.00 AZL Giants R 4 4 8.1 5 4 4 1 6 9 0 1 0 4.32 2004 Fort Myers A 21 21 117.0 118 56 52 6 43 125 6 7 0 4.00 New Britain AA 7 7 39.2 45 14 14 4 17 49 3 2 0 3.18 2005 New Britain AA 13 13 76.2 70 36 31 6 26 92 3 5 0 3.64 Rochester AAA 7 7 46.0 26 17 11 2 14 50 4 1 0 2.15 5 Minor League Seasons 84 83 437.2 388 207 177 30 164 489 24 27 0 3.64 BACKGROUND: Francisco Liriano was signed by the San Francisco Giants out of the Dominican Republic in the year 2000. Originally an outfielder, he was quickly moved to the mound due to the strength of his left arm. He made his North American debut in '01, posting a 3.63 ERA and fanning 67 men in 62 innings in the Arizona Rookie League, already showing an above-average fastball/curveball combination. In '02, he posted a 3.49 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 80 innings for Class A Hagerstown, but was limited to 16 starts by arm trouble. More arm woes hampered him in '03, limiting him to just 9 innings of work. Although the Giants respected his natural talent, by this point they were understandably skeptical about his ability to stay healthy. He was shipped to Minnesota as part of the A.J. Pierzynski trade that fall. Liriano had an effective season at two levels in '04, and has emerged as one of the top southpaw prospects in the game in '05. SCOUTING REPORT: Liriano has one of the best lefty fastballs in the minor leagues, working consistently at 92-94 MPH, hitting 95-96 MPH at times. His fastball has both velocity and movement. His curveball is erratic, but is an out-pitch when he throws it correctly, which has been more and more often. He's also added an above-average changeup, giving him a strong 3-pitch arsenal. A slider rounds out the repertoire, but it is less effective than his other pitches. Liriano has made major strides with his command and control, and is now a reasonably reliable strike-thrower. Although he has the arsenal of a power pitcher, he changes speeds well and understands the intellectual side of pitching. He's had problems doing some of the more subtle things big league pitchers need to do on the mound (holding runners, etc), but he is athletic and intelligent, and this issue has improved with experience. Overall, Liriano has few real weaknesses, and the ones he has are typical for his age. PERFORMANCE RECORD: Liriano has actually improved at each level, always a good sign. His strikeout rate, consistently more than one per inning, is quite strong, and his stuff is also reflected in good H/IP ratios and low home run rates. His walk rate is quite good for a young power pitcher: note his pleasant career K/BB ratio of 489/164. The best news is that his numbers show skill growth against harder competition. Given his ability to dominate advanced minor league hitters at the age of 21, he certainly projects as an above-average Major League starter. Some people have compared him to a young Johan Santana, and Liriano does have Santana-like potential. He is at a comparable stage of development to Santana at the same age. Of course, that's no guarantee of a Santana-like result; far from it. But it does show what kind of potential this kid has. HEALTH RECORD: This is the big issue, and the main reason that Liriano didn't move into the elite ranks for me until this year. His '02 and '03 seasons were cut short by recurrent shoulder soreness. Surgery was avoided, and he's been healthy for more than a year now. But shoulder stuff is always a big red flag, more so than elbow problems in my mind. Will it recur? Liriano has athleticism in his favor, and he is more pitch-efficient than many young power pitchers. That helps. The Twins are one of the better organizations when it comes to keeping young pitchers healthy. But there are no guarantees. OUTLOOK: The only thing I don't like in Liriano's profile is the history of shoulder soreness. It is possible I'm making more of it than I should, and aside from that Liriano has everything you want: a power arm, decent (and improving) command, a feel for pitching, intelligence, athleticism, good statistics, and a positive organizational context. I gave him a Grade C+ in my book this year, which was at least a notch too low. He definitely rates as a Grade B+ at this point, and could be an A- and in the top 20 by the end of the season. As a Twins fan, I'm looking forward to a September call-up. As a fantasy prospect analyst, I strongly recommend him. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.231.159.146