[討論] Five Questions
The Hardball Times 正在進行年度 Five Questions 季前展望，
針對每一隊提出五個關鍵問題，探討新球季可能的情勢，
這一系列是從戰績最差的球隊倒過來寫，所以還沒輪到 Twins，
不過我自己也有一些想法，寫下來分享，也當作練習英文。
1. Does the offense improve enough to catch up with the ChiSox and the Tribe?
The Twins as a whole ranked near the bottom in almost every hitting category,
scoring only 688 runs last year, dead last in the American League. So despite
of a stellar performance from the pitching staff, the Twins finished third in
the AL Central, way behind their main divisional rivals.
To revamp the offense, the Twins first traded two pitching prospects, Travis
Bowyer and Scott Tyler, to the fire-sale Marlins for speedy second baseman
Luis Castillo, who with his steady on base skill would be a major upgrade at
the top of the order.
Without much budget room to work with, the Twins were unable to make a splash
in the free agency market, such as netting a major power threat to hit in the
middle of the order. The Twins had to settle for Rondell White in the end.
It's an acceptable move, nevertheless.
However, the addition of Tony Batista and his constant on base percentage
under .300 clearly shows that the front office is clueless on what matters as
to scoring runs. Cut by the Fukuoka Hawks after the first year of his two-year
contract, Batista reported to camp at least 15 pounds overweight, barely with
any defensive range at all. Unfortunately, Batista would be the starting third
baseman at the start of the season. The more he plays, the more harm he would
do both offensively and defensively.
Moreover, the Twins named Joe Vavra their new hitting coach in place of Scott
Ullger, who is now in charge of third base coaching, but it's still up in the
air how much the change of scenario would help resurrect the team offense.
Overall, many things have to break right for the Twins to contend with their
opponents.
2. Will the M&M boys live up to the hype?
Before last season started, everyone was very high on Joe Mauer and Justin
Morneau, and the press even nicknamed them M&M boys, the name formerly
associated with the legendary duo of Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris.
But things didn't turn out very well. As productive a hitter as Mauer already
was, his power didn't develop as expected, slugging for .117 isolated power.
Morneau was faced with all kinds of health problems last year. After a hot
start in April, he hit miserably for the rest of the year, holes exposed in
his swing, although he did hit for some power.
Nonetheless, Mauer and Morneau are still two young players with a bright
future ahead of them, and it is important to have them reached the next level
this year. After all, the M&M boys have to carry the offense for the Twins to
have any chance competing with the much more potent lineup of the White Sox
and the Indians.
3. How badly injuries of all kind may strike the team?
In this year's Team Health Report on Baseball Prospectus, the Twins get 10
yellow or red lights as opposed to only 6 green ones. Youngsters and elders
alike have their own injury risks. Mauer's and Jason Kubel's surgery-repaired
knee are of great concern. Morneau had bone spurs in his elbow but the team
opted against cleanup surgery.
Things are not any easier with the veterans. Castillo has had lingering leg
problems for years, and the turf would do him no good. Outfielders Shannon
Stewart (shoulder injury) and Torii Hunter (broken ankle) both missed time
due to collision with the wall. Their injuries may carry over to this season.
Newcomer White is best known as "RonDL" White, which tells a lot about his
physical conditions.
Among the pitchers, Radke had a sore neck and shoulder, Silva had a torn
meniscus in his knee, and Rincon underwent elbow surgery in the off-season.
It's scary to imagine what if things fall apart this year.
4. How much will Kubel and Liriano contribute to the team?
Two of the most promising prospects in baseball seem bound to open the season
in AAA. After missing the entire year recovering from a severe knee damage,
Kubel could use a month or two in the minors to polish his swing and to prove
he is healthy enough to run the bases and to patrol the outfield. The real
roadblock in his way to the big league, however, is the obsessive idea for
Batista to be the starting third baseman, which pushes Mike Cuddyer to right
field, making that position a log jam.
While it's reasonable for Kubel to get more seasoning in the minors, leaving
Francisco Liriano there is simply a waste of time. The kid has got nothing
left to prove. Three years ago, the Twins kept Johan Santana, whom Liriano is
often compared to, in the bullpen until the second half. Liriano may not
follow the same path, however. General manager Terry Ryan has indicated that
his top priority would be for Liriano to keep getting regular starts, be it in
the majors or the minors.
Both players waiting in the wing are capable of making a major contribution
this year. They could be the difference maker in the division should they be
called up sooner rather than later.
5. Will Terry Ryan have the gut to pull the trigger?
It's well known that the stregnth of general manager Terry Ryan lies in
evaluating talents and uncovering diamonds in the rough, while his weakness
is his conservative attitude that has hindered him from making impact deals,
especially during midseason, to improve the team.
This season, Hunter, Radke, Stewart, and Castillo are all in the final year of
their multi-year contracts. And Kyle Lohse, who won't become eligible for free
agency until the end of 2007, is very well expendable with the emergence of
Scott Baker and Liriano. They are all possible trade baits if the Twins are
going to be selling on the market coming to July.
On the other hand, if the Twins are to do some shopping, there's also a great
wealth of pitching farmhands the system has to offer to get the deal done, in
exchange for immediate helping hands in the pennant race.
Either way, with so many chips in hand, it is worth paying attention to how
Terry Ryan fares this time. Will he be able to exploit the most benefit when
opportunity knocks?
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◆ From: 203.70.1.155
※ 編輯: tradewind 來自: 211.74.13.57 (03/30 03:28)
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