Analysis of Twins Rookie Nick Blackburn (by John Sickels)
http://tinyurl.com/5me9y2 原文出處
小弟英文很弱，就不翻了XD
文中有提到 Sickels覺得他今年的成績有點運氣的成分在裡頭 = =
Nick Blackburn was drafted by the Twins in the 29th round in the 2001 class,
out of Seminole State Junior College in Oklahoma. He signed in the spring of
2002, then struggled at rookie level Elizabethton, with a 5.00 ERA. He did
post a decent 62/21 K/BB ratio, but didn't really stand out as a prospect. I
didn't put him in my book for 2002, and indeed I didn't put him in ANY books
until 2008.
Blackburn pitched for Quad Cities in the Midwest League in 2003, going 2-9,
4.86 with a 40/18 K/BB in 76 innings, showing good control but little else.
He returned to Quad Cities in 2004 and pitched well, with a 2.77 mark and a
66/23 K/BB in 84 innings. Promoted to Fort Myers, he struggled and gaveup 51
hits in 37 innings, resulting in a 6.27 ERA. At this point he was a Grade C
prospect at best, a guy with an OK arm and good control but with little
consistent success against pro hitters.
He split 2005 at three levels: 3.36 ERA with 55/16 K/BB in 93 innings for
Fort Myers, 2-4, 1.84 with a 27/10 K/BB in 49 innings for Double-A New
Britain, and a 5.14 ERA wiht a 7/3 K/BB and 20 hits allowed in 14 innings for
Triple-A Rochester. He started to get a bit of attention as a prospect at
this point, though he'd still rate as jus ta Grade C due to his low strikeout
rate.
Blackburn had a mediocre season in Double-A in 2006, going 7-8, 4.42 with a
81/37 K/BB and 141 hits allowed in 132 innings. At thsi point there was
nothing going on to make me think he would be anything more than a
Double-A/Triple-A strike thrower.
That changed in 2007. He started off at New Britain again, going 3-1, 3.08
with an 18/7 K/BB in 38 innings with 36 hits allowed. Moved up when Rochester
needed a pitcher, he went on a tear and threw 41.1 scoreless innings. He
finished with a 2.11 ERA and a 57/12 K/BB in 110 innings for Rochester, 91
hits allowed. He was very hittable during a brief trial in Minnesota, giving
up 19 hits and 12 runs in 11 innings. But he had clearly emerged as a
prospect to watch.
Blackburn's emergence last year was a result of better conditioning, which
gave him more physical strrength and added some oomph to his fastball,
previously a mid-80s pitch but now in the 88-92 range, sometimes even higher.
More velocity with the heater made his other pitches (cutter, curveball,
slider, and changeup) more effective. I wrote up Blackburn in the 2008
Baseball Prospect Book as an inning-eating strike thrower, a Grade C+ and
possible fifth starter or long reliever.
Baseball America went so far as to rate him the Top Prospect in the Twins
system entering 2008, a ranking that I strongly disagreed with, thinking they
were overestimating him. It turned out that I was underestimating him.
Blackburn has ended up being the anchor of the Twins rotation, making 30
starts and 181 innings pitched, going 10-9, 3.89 with a 91/31 K/BB and 206
hits allowed. How sustainable is this? His strikeout rate is still rather
low. His component marks indicate his ERA "should" be around 4.20 or 4.30,
not 3.89, so he's had some luck on his side and good support from his
teammates. Even so, a 4.25 ERA and the ability to eat innings with good
command is quite valuable.
The low strikeout rate still concerns me, and in the long run I think Kevin
Slowey, Scott Baker, and Francisco Liriano are better bets for sustained
success. Blackburn kind of reminds me more of a Joe Mays or Allan Anderson
type than a Kevin Tapani or Brad Radke, although I don't want to dismiss his
chances. But sabermetrically, Slowey and Baker are better bets in the long
run than Blackburn.
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10/21 20:52, , 1F
10/21 20:52, 1F
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