Re: [農場] Twins 2008 Minor League Numbers: Hit …

看板MIN-Twins作者shancko (雅典等等我)時間17年前 (2008/11/07 16:12)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

留言1則, 1人參與討論串1/1

Of course, Revere wasn't bad himself. He came up short of the .400 mark by hitting "only" .379, but after accounting for the pitcher-friendly Midwest League his adjusted batting average jumps to .397. Morales and Revere were the only hitters in the system to post an adjusted OPS above 1.000 and Hicks ranked fourth at .985, which is amazing from a trio of center fielders selected out of high school in the past two drafts. Here are the top adjusted Isolated Power and Isolated Discipline marks: 無疑地，Revere已經很好了，他的BA短暫地站上.400，最後雖"僅"以 .379作收，但考慮到Midwest這個pitcher-friendly的聯盟，調整後的BA會變成 .397。Morales和Revere是 OPS超過1的唯二球員，若再加上打出 .985的Hicks，TWINS漂亮地在中外野這個位置，以過去兩年所選的高中球員，演出了一場漂亮的三重奏。下面我們看看調整過後的IsoP和IsoD。 IsoP IsoD Angel Morales .367 Chris Parmelee .148 Evan Bigley .329 Dominic de la Osa .121 Chris Parmelee .306 Allan De San Miguel .119 Jonathan Waltenbury .259 Angel Morales .112 Aaron Hicks .242 Whit Robbins .112 Luke Hughes .233 Johnny Woodard .102 Randy Ruiz .231 James Beresford .099 Matt Macri .220 Daniel Berg .092 Danny Valencia .219 Michael Harrington .089 Michael Harrington .218 Daniel Lehmann .088 Garrett Jones .218 Brian Buscher .084 David Winfree .213 Drew Butera .084 Brian Buscher .209 Tommy Watkins .082 Daniel Ortiz .204 Toby Gardenhire .080 Ramon Santana .201 Aaron Hicks .079 Erik Lis .200 Brian Dinkelman .079 Based solely on his .239 batting average you'd conclude that 2006 first-round pick Chris Parmelee had a horrible season, but that's far from the case. Parmelee hitting just .239 this season and .246 for his minor-league career certainly isn't a good thing and raises big questions about his long-term potential, but focusing strictly on that overlooks great power and plate discipline. Only Morales and Evan Bigley displayed more raw power than Parmelee, and no one in the Twins' system had more patience. 2006年第一輪選進的Chris Parmelee，帳面上.239的BA成績很難看，而且低迷的BA已經持續兩年了，這當然會使得對他的未來性打折扣，但仔細檢視，他是TWINS系統中最有耐心的(IsoD最高)，且只有Morales和Evan Bigley在IsoP這項贏過他 Despite batting just .239, Parmelee posted an adjusted .250/.398/.556 line that ranks as the sixth-best production from any hitter in the Twins' system. To put Parmelee's power in perspective, consider that he played alongside Revere at Beloit and they posted slugging percentages within one point of each other (.497 versus .496) despite a 140-point gap in the batting average (.379 versus .239). Unlike most guys in the system Parmelee has the secondary skills to make a big impact without a big average. 總之，Parmelee是TWINS系統中比較特殊的例子，他不具有高的BA，但卻有驚人的power (Adam dunn type?)。 (我個人無法判定他不錯的上壘率是真的具有選球眼，又或者是power-induced　BB 如果在加強了contact之後，應該是個可怕的打者。) 註: 球團請不要讓他演變成Ortiz第二，好嗎? All of the above numbers have been adjusted for run-scoring environments, but further adjustments for ages and defensive positions are also important. For example, Garrett Jones' adjusted .280/.339/.498 line looks pretty good and ranked as the 15th-best among the system's hitters, but his .837 adjusted OPS ceases looking so great given that he was a 27-year-old first baseman playing his fourth straight season at Triple-A. In fact, for a 27-year-old first baseman at Triple-A that's far from impressive. Meanwhile, Ramos and Jones essentially had identical adjusted hitting lines, but an .830 OPS from a 20-year-old catcher facing older competition at high Single-A is vastly more impressive than an .837 OPS from a 27-year-old first baseman facing younger competition during his fourth crack at Triple-A. Ramos' season suggests that he has the potential to develop into a good-hitting everyday catcher in the majors. Jones' season suggests that he has the potential to spend another few years at Triple-A. 再來看看年齡這項，Garrett Jones雖然打的不錯 (躺著也中槍!!)，但已經是個在3A打滾第四個年頭的27歲老一壘手了，這就大大減損了我們對他的期待性。反之，跟他打出幾乎一樣OPS的Ramos就不同了，他只是個20歲年輕人，甚至還是個捕手。Ramos這樣成功的一季暗示著，他有機會變成一個打擊不錯的先發捕手，而Jones今年的成績只說明他還得在 3A待一下。 Attempting to compare players like Ramos to players like Jones shows the importance of the next step, which is making further adjustments for age and defensive position. In other words, how does each player's offense compare to other players at his position, and how old was each player relative to the level he was at and prospects he was playing against. If you take the normalized numbers above and apply further adjustments based on age and position, you get the following: 仔細地說，還須去比較某一個球員跟同守位的其它球員間的數據差別，還有其所處階層 (level)之球員的平均年齡，然後我們可以得到下面這表 (詳情我也不懂)： AGE LEVEL POS OPS% Angel Morales 18 RK+ CF 1.60 Ben Revere 20 A- CF 1.41 Aaron Hicks 18 RK- CF 1.38 Wilson Ramos 20 A+ C 1.27 Chris Parmelee 20 A- 1B 1.23 Luke Hughes 23 AA/AAA 3B 1.21 Evan Bigley 21 RK+ LF 1.19 Jonathan Waltenbury 20 RK+ 1B 1.19 Steven Tolleson 24 AA SS 1.15 Danny Valencia 23 A+/AA 3B 1.14 Steve Singleton 22 A-/A+ 2B 1.11 Daniel Ortiz 18 RK- RF 1.09 Trevor Plouffe 22 AA/AAA SS 1.09 Brian Buscher 27 AAA 3B 1.08 Joe Benson 20 A- CF 1.07 Nicholas Romero 20 RK+ 3B 1.06 Alejando Machado 26 AAA 2B 1.06 Jose Morales 25 AAA C 1.06 Allan De San Miguel 20 A-/A+ C 1.06 Ramon Santana 22 A- SS 1.04 Matt Macri 26 AAA SS 1.04 Edward Ovalle 23 A+ CF 1.04 Dustin Martin 24 AA CF 1.03 David Winfree 22 AA RF 1.03 Jason Pridie 24 AAA CF 1.00 After factoring in leagues, run-scoring environments, defensive positions, and age, the Twins' system had 25 players who were above-average offensively in 2008. Morales led the way at 60 percent above average, followed by Revere at 41 percent and Hicks at 38 percent. Ramos led the non-center fielders at 27 percent above par (whereas Jones doesn't even crack the list) and Parmelee's mostly overlooked season rounds out the top five at 23 percent better than average. 根據以上一大堆的調整後，TWINS系統中有25人在2008的表現是above-average，前三名是 Morales、Revere和Hicks，Ramos是上列三個CF以外的第一人，Parmelee甚至也不錯。 Among players who've advanced past Single-A, Luke Hughes led the way at 21 percent above average, followed by Steven Tolleson at 15 percent and Danny Valencia at 14 percent. That trio represents the closest thing the Twins have to good, MLB-ready hitting prospects and they were joined in the top 10 by rookie-ball standouts Bigley and Jonathan Waltenbury at 19 percent above average. Incidentally, with enough plate appearances to qualify Denard Span would have ranked fifth at 24 percent above par. Luke Hughes、Steven Tolleson和Danny Valencia，是TWINS系統中最接近MLB的新秀了。給個參考，Denard Span的成績丟進來將會排在第五名(1.24)，讓我們繼續觀察這些小將吧。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.57.234