[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Twins Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Minnesota Twins Preview
The Minnesota Twins have become a team that just can’t get over the hump. They
’ve won four division titles since 2002 and fell one win short of another AL
Central crown last year. In that stretch, they’ve won only one playoff series.
This year, in their final season at the Metrodome, they’re hoping for one more
magical ride, like 1987 and 1991, when they won their only two World Series
titles. It’s an exciting time for the franchise, as the Twins get ready to
move into Target Field, their new outdoor ballpark, in 2010. All their core
players are back from the team that went 88–75 last year, losing 1–0 in a
tiebreaker against the Chicago White Sox. The Twins are one of the youngest
teams in the majors, and theoretically, they should be better with an extra
year of experience. But with their budget, they need almost everything to go
right.
Rotation
The old man of the starting pitching staff is Scott Baker, who turned 27 in
September. He heads a group that helped the Twins exceed most expectations last
season, after they traded Johan Santana to the Mets. The win-loss totals weren’
t flashy, but all five of the Twins’ young starters were solid, and all of
them are back. Baker went 11–4, including 3–0 with a 2.53 ERA in September,
when every game felt like a must-win. The Twins figure Baker, Kevin Slowey,
Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins will be steady again, and they hope Francisco
Liriano blossoms into a true No. 1. Coming back from Tommy John surgery,
Liriano wasn’t as electrifying as 2006, when he made the All-Star team as a
rookie. Still, after a three-month stint at Class AAA, he went 6–1 with a 2.74
ERA, and there’s hope he’ll be even better this year.
Bullpen
After one of their shakiest relief performances in recent years, the Twins will
have to turn things around without a key setup man. Pat Neshek underwent Tommy
John surgery in November, dashing hope that he’d return to full strength this
year. The Twins bullpen never quite recovered after Neshek first injured the
elbow in May. Without him, the Twins have All-Star closer Joe Nathan and a
bunch of question marks in the bullpen. They would like to believe Jose Mijares
can fill the setup void, but they know they can’t put too much stock in 10
September appearances. He was quite the revelation after jumping from Class AA
New Britain, posting a 0.87 ERA over 10.1 innings. They need Matt Guerrier to
bounce back after getting overworked last year, and they hope Jesse Crain comes
back stronger in his second year removed from shoulder surgery.
Middle infield
Veteran manager Ron Gardenhire has a special affinity for this part of the
diamond. He places a premium on defense. Brendan Harris looked shaky turning
the double play at second base last season, so Gardenhire searched for more
athleticism. Alexi Casilla became a revelation. He was batting .219 for AAA
Rochester when the Twins promoted him, but he maintained a .300 average with
the big club until tapering off in September, while battling a thumb injury.
The Twins tried to find more offense at shortstop but decided to re-sign Nick
Punto. He’s a defensive wizard, but the Twins can’t afford to see his batting
average sink to .210, like two years ago. Punto hit a respectable .284 last
season.
Corners
Justin Morneau spent the winter kicking himself over last season’s final two
weeks. After winning AL MVP honors in 2006, Morneau had a great chance to win
the award again last season, as he carried the team for the first five-plus
months. Morneau was batting .314 with 23 home runs and 124 RBIs on Sept. 13,
but over the last 15 games, he went 10-for-59 with three extra base hits, all
doubles, and five RBIs. The Twins need the reigning Home Run Derby champ to
forget that slump altogether, and Gardenhire probably needs to give him more
rest. Last year, Morneau batted cleanup in all 163 games. The Twins had hopes
of upgrading third base, making a run at free agent Casey Blake before he
signed with the Dodgers. The alternative was to gamble on more good things from
Brian Buscher and Harris, a utility infielder. Buscher batted .316 against
right-handed pitchers, and Harris batted .300 overall after June 17.
Outfield
Denard Span came through the Twins’ system as a center fielder but took
masterfully to right field last year with Michael Cuddyer on the disabled list.
With the speedy Carlos Gomez in center, the Twins showed some impressive range.
But one thing they lacked with Cuddyer injured was right-handed power, as
Delmon Young had a slow adjustment in his first season after getting traded
from Tampa Bay. The Twins need a right-handed bopper to help protect
left-handed hitters Joe Mauer, Morneau and Jason Kubel. Getting Cuddyer back to
full strength should help. But with three other outfielders established as
starters — in Gomez, Span and Young — the Twins have some options in the
outfield. Span will likely shift over to left, with Cuddyer back in right and
Gomez in center. If they don’t make a move before Opening Day, Gardenhire
could have some tough lineup decisions.
Catching
The Twins love backup catcher Mike Redmond, but a big key is keeping Mauer on
the field. Leg injuries limited Mauer to 109 games in 2007, but he came back
healthy last season, winning his second AL batting title and first Gold Glove
Award. Mauer actually caught 1,203 innings, the fourth-most for any catcher in
the majors behind Jason Kendall (1,328), Russell Martin (1,238) and Kurt Suzuki
(1,215).
DH/Bench
Kubel, 26, has shown steady improvement in recent years, and the Twins look for
him to be a force at DH in 2009. Kubel finished second to Morneau with 20 home
runs last year and notched a career-high 78 RBIs. The tight-fisted Twins
normally aren’t blessed with top-flight bench options, but one strength has
been their ability to produce role players from the minors. This could be the
year Jason Pridie emerges as a reserve outfielder with Matt Tolbert in a
utility role. That would give the Twins two speedy reserves. Pridie stole 25
bases in Class AAA
Management
No matter how much roster turnover they face, continuity is a hallmark of Twins
management. Under owner Carl Pohlad, they’ve had two team presidents, three
general managers and two field managers since 1986. The Twins gave Gardenhire a
two-year extension in November, which will keep him under contract at least
through 2011. Gardenhire is 622–512 and has won four division titles in seven
years as manager. The only managers with more regular-season victories since
2002 are Joe Torre (675), Mike Scioscia (646), Tony La Russa (634) and Bobby
Cox (623). But Gardenhire is a 6–15 in the postseason. The Twins would love to
see that change.
Final analysis
The Twins won’t sneak up on teams the way they did last year, when few
expected them to contend. On paper, it’s hard to say they have improved
themselves, but this team has a knack for squeezing out a few extra wins every
season. In Mauer, Morneau and Nathan, the Twins have three of the top players
in the AL, and they are loaded with young, inexpensive talent. But their
offseason shortcomings left them little margin for error again, and it will
take another 1987- or 1991-like storybook season for them to keep the Metrodome
rocking for one last October.
Beyond the Boxscore
Throwbacks The Twins will wear throwback uniforms for each Saturday home game
this year. The uniforms are modified versions of the ones they wore in 1982,
the first year they moved into the Metrodome. The red hats are back, but the
sansabelt pants and pullover tops are not, as these uniforms have real belts
and button-down jerseys.
Who’s on first? Twins fans will be asked to vote on an All-Metrodome team,
comparing the team’s players since 1982. The toughest call: Morneau or Kent
Hrbek at first base. Morneau won the AL MVP in ’06 and finished second last
year. Hrbek won two World Series and smacked 293 homers in 14 seasons with the
team.
The Hall will call Want proof that Joe Mauer’s career is on a Hall of Fame
path? Consider the stat OPS+ (on-base-plus-slugging percentage, adjusted for
league and park averages). Mauer’s career OPS+ is 127. That total ranks first
among all AL catchers with at least 1,500 plate appearances by age 25. The
others on that list are Yogi Berra (123 OPS+), Bill Dickey (119), Mickey
Cochrane (115) and Thurman Munson (114).
Strong finish Delmon Young didn’t hit his first home run last year until June
7. The trade that sent Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay’s World
Series team might not have looked so bad if Young had hit better for the season
’s first two months. After May 31, he batted .305 with 10 homers and 54 RBIs.
Pitcher’s paradise Remember when the Metrodome was known as a hitter’s
paradise? Not anymore. According to Baseball-Reference.com, which uses a stat
called park factors to compare each major league park, the Metrodome ranked as
the toughest hitter’s park in the AL last season. Good news for pitchers: That
also made it the best place in the AL to lower your ERA.
Defensive woes The Twins committed 108 errors last year, their highest total
since 2001, soiling their reputation as one of the game’s most sound defensive
teams.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — The Twins grabbed Aaron Hicks out of Long Beach (Calif.)
Wilson High School with the 14th overall pick in last June’s draft, and he
drew quick comparisons to Eric Davis. A switch-hitting center fielder, Hicks
batted .318 with a .409 on-base percentage and .491 slugging percentage in the
rookie-level Gulf Coast League after signing a $1.78 million signing bonus. He
had 18 extra-base hits and stole 12 bases in 45 games. Other teams wanted Hicks
to pitch, since his fastball has been clocked at 94-97 mph, but the Twins are
happy to keep him in the outfield. He’ll likely head to low-Class A Beloit
this season and could be ready for the majors by 2011.
2007 Top Pick — Ben Revere, OF, Lexington (Ky.) Catholic High School
Flirted with .400 into August last season. Speedy outfielder could hit his way
to majors by late 2010.
2006 Top Pick — Chris Parmelee, OF, Chino Hills (Calif.) High School
Broken wrist cut short ’08 season. Has power potential but is still a few
years away.
2005 Top Pick — Matt Garza, RHP, Fresno State
Twins traded last year’s ALCS MVP to Rays for Delmon Young.
2004 Top Pick — Trevor Plouffe, SS, Crespi Carmelite (Calif.) High School
Steady climb landed him in Class AAA last year, but he might need another
season of polish.
2003 Top Pick — Matt Moses, 3B, Mills Goodwin (Va.) High School
A first-round bust; moved to the outfield and batted .230 last year at Class AA.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
C Wilson Ramos (21)
Slick defensively and hits for power; headed to AA.
RHP Anthony Swarzak (23)
Went 5–0 with 1.80 ERA at AAA. A potential bullpen option this year for the
Twins.
RHP Kevin Mulvey (23)
Part of the Mets’ package for Johan Santana, he could help the Twins this
year, too.
3B Danny Valencia (24)
Could reach AAA this year and has talent to become everyday third baseman in
the bigs.
LHP Brian Duensing (26)
Struggled at AAA but thrived as a reliever in the Olympics. Could reach majors
this year.
Statistician
18 >> Different teams that have played in the World Series since the Twins
last went — defeating the Atlanta Braves in seven games back in 1991.
829 >> Runs scored by the Twins last year, the third-most in club history.
.549 >> Twins winning percentage since 2002, tied for fourth-best in baseball.
53 >> Home victories last year by the Twins, the third time this decade the
team has had 50 or more.
370 >> RBIs for Justin Morneau since 2006, third-most in the majors.
.399 >> Career on-base percentage for Joe Mauer.
8 >> Consecutive years the Twins have had at least one Gold Glove Award
winner.
.539 >> Twins’ all-time winning percentage at the Metrodome (1,165–995).
2.5 >> Walks per game issued by Twins pitchers last year, fewest in the majors.
.347 >> Postseason batting average of Michael Cuddyer, the best in franchise
history.
1 >> Losing seasons as a big league manager by Ron Gardenhire. The 2007
Twins went 79–83; his other six Twins teams all have had winning
records.
Difference Maker
Michael Cuddyer had a career year in 2006, when he batted .284 with 24 homers
and 109 RBIs. Hand injuries lowered his production in 2007, but the Twins
showed their faith, giving him a three-year, $24 million deal. Last year,
Cuddyer ran into a string of bad injury luck and batted .249 with three homers
and 36 RBIs. He played only 71 games, including just 58 in the outfield, and
the Twins missed his right-handed presence in their lineup. They’re counting
on him to bounce back this year, at age 30.
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