[評論] Free Carlos Gomez! (from AG.com)

看板MIN-Twins作者shancko (雅典等等我)時間15年前 (2009/05/12 02:33)推噓24(24推 0噓 81→)

留言105則, 9人參與討論串1/1

今天看到這一篇評論於我心有戚戚焉所以跟大家分享一下 Carlos Gomez was in the lineup yesterday for just the fourth time in 17 games, as Ron Gardenhire has decided that Delmon Young in left field, Denard Span in center field, and Michael Cuddyer in right field is his preferred outfield alignment. Gardenhire has shown that he figures to start Span and Cuddyer nearly every game, so he's basically chosen Young over Gomez as the "other" starting outfielder. There are two problems with his decision, one of which is short term and one of which is long term. Gardenhire很明顯地將讓Span跟Cuddyer每天先發他選擇了Young當第三個外野手不過這樣的決定在短期跟長期來說都很值得討論 For most fans and far too many media members, benching Gomez for Young looks like an easy move. After all, Gomez is batting .218 and Young is batting .288. Easy call, right? Actually, no. Young's batting average is incredibly empty, as 21 of his 23 hits have been singles and he's drawn four walks in 87 plate appearances. Yes, the fact that he's "hitting" .288 looks good at first glance, but his .333 on-base percentage and .338 slugging percentage are an awful combination for a corner outfielder. 對大部分的人來說,選擇Young而讓Gomez坐板凳是再容易不過的選擇了但.288的BA其實一點用都沒有,因為23支安打中有21支是single 而且Young選到的BB非常的少因此,他的OBP跟SLG在corner outfielder來說,是非常差勁的 Gomez has been even worse offensively, hitting just .218/.259/.327 in 58 plate appearances, but unlike Young his value goes far beyond his production at the plate. Gomez is one of the elite defensive center fielders in baseball, saving the Twins a tremendous number of runs with his glove. His presence in center field also means that Span slides over to left field, where he's also one of the elite defenders in the game. 在攻擊上,Gomez當然是爛的多但他跟Young不一樣,他在防守上的價值,遠遠超過打擊 Young is a better hitter than Gomez right now, but the gap isn't anywhere close to as big as their batting averages suggest and pales in comparison to the gap defensively. Last year Young hit .290/.336/.405 and Gomez hit .258/.296/.360. This season Young is at .288/.333/.338 and Gomez is at .218/.259/.327. In both cases the difference is about 80 points of OPS and even that figure is inflated by not accounting for Young's propensity to ground into double plays or Gomez's superior speed on the bases. Young現在的確是個比較好的打者,但他跟Gomez的差距並沒有想像中的大綜合這兩年的表現,兩人OPS的差距大概是.080左右但這並不包含Young打出的雙殺打,還有Gomez優異的速度所造成的影響 Based strictly on their production offensively as members of the Twins, Young has been about 15 runs better than Gomez per 600 plate appearances. In some circumstances a 15-run gap offensively would be a lot, but not here. According to Ultimate Zone Rating as a duo Gomez in center field and Span in left field (or right field) has been 30-35 runs above average per 150 games. Meanwhile, as a duo Span in center field and Young in left field has been 45-50 runs below average per 150 games. 以600個PA為準,Young在打擊上的RC,會高於Gomez15分但如果考慮到Span-LF,Gomez-CF,在150場中會創造高於平均30-35RS 而Young-LF,Span-CF,則是低於平均45-50RS The latter total is inflated by Span's unsustainably horrible numbers in limited action as a center fielder, but even if you ignore them to give him credit for being exactly average in center field--which at this point is far from a safe assumption--the Young-Span alignment is 40-50 runs worse than the Span-Gomez alignment. In other words, by benching Gomez for Young the Twins are gaining 15 runs offensively and losing 40-50 runs defensively. All of which is why focusing on their batting averages is silly. 就算保守點估計,Young-Span比Span-Gomez的組合最少也會差到40-50分所以只關心BA的差距是很無腦的 In the short term benching Gomez for Young is costing the Twins a significant number of runs, but the move could have even costlier ramifications long term. Gomez is six months from his 24th birthday and has great athletic ability, world-class speed, and little idea what he's doing at the plate. While with the Mets he was rushed through the minor leagues, playing at Double-A as a 20-year-old and debuting in the majors as a 21-year-old after all of 36 games at Triple-A. 短期來說,讓Gomez坐板凳已經會在防守上失去更多分但更嚴重的是如此會造成長期的影響 Gomez was rushed through the normal development process for a prospect, getting promoted to the majors far sooner than his minor-league performance warranted and then sticking in the big leagues at least in part because he was the centerpiece of a franchise-altering trade. Certainly none of that has helped him mature as a player, but compounding those mistakes by now relegating him to the bench makes even less sense. Gomez被rush的很大,20歲就上2A,21歲就在3A出賽36場以後被拉上major 比起之前Mets這錯誤的策略, 現在把他長期放在板凳則更是愚蠢 Young was born just a few months before Gomez in 1985 and also would benefit from regular playing time, which certainly makes juggling outfielders difficult for Gardenhire. However, even before planting Gomez on the bench Gardenhire found playing time for Young by starting him against all left-handers and some right-handers. Young started nine of the first 15 games, totaling 35 plate appearances. On the other hand, Gomez has four starts and 18 total plate appearances during the past 17 games. Young獲得比Gomez多非常多的PA For all his faults Gomez is a significantly more valuable all-around player than Young right now, but by focusing on batting averages and paying zero attention to advanced defensive metrics the Twins have a difficult time wrapping their heads around that. However, even if you're convinced that Young is the superior player right now and benching Gomez doesn't hurt the team in the short term, why in the world would you want your incredibly raw 23-year-old center fielder getting one or two starts per week? 只把眼睛放在BA上的話,當然不會發現其實Gomez比Young更有價值而就算Young真的比Gomez優異很多讓一個如此具有潛力但未成熟的CF每週只先發一或兩次是在搞什麼? If the Twins aren't going to play Gomez, they ought to at least let him continue to develop at Triple-A. By benching him for Young and keeping him in the majors to make a start every 4-5 games, they're hurting the team in both the short and long term. With his great defense Gomez would become an incredibly valuable all-around player simply by developing into a mediocre, slightly below-average hitter. With his horrible defense Young would need to develop into a great hitter just to have the same type of value. 如果不打算讓Gomez先發,就放他去3A吧!!! 他需要持續的出賽磨練打擊,只要打擊成長到slightly below-average就足夠了讓他當Young的替補,真是他媽的腦殘!!! It's certainly clear which scenario I'd bet on, but more importantly there's no reason for the Twins to take an either-or approach yet. Given their fly ball-heavy pitching staff using a Span-Gomez-Cuddyer outfield with Jason Kubel or Young at designated hitter depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher remains the best alignment on most days, but if the Twins can't or won't recognize that then at least let Gomez play regularly at Rochester without wasting his development and service time. 此外,Twins大部分的投手是飛球投手所以用Span-Gomez-Cuddyer絕對比較好,讓Kubel跟Young打DH 再重複一次讓Gomez先發吧,不然就放他去3A!!! -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.167.164.35

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