[外電] 2013 Preview
2013 Preview: Minnesota Twins
硬球時報的分析
The Big Question: Did the Twins do enough to improve their AL-worst rotation?
After a decade-long run as a consistent winner in the AL Central the Twins
fell apart in 2011, losing 99 games and firing general manager Bill Smith
while replacing him with the man he replaced, Terry Ryan. Things were
supposed to be better last season and I suppose technically they were, but
the Twins lost 96 games despite a far healthier team and some strong
individual performances because they simply couldn’t pitch.
Twins starting pitchers had the worst ERA in baseball among teams that don’t
call Coors Field home and the pitching staff as a whole recorded the fewest
strikeouts in baseball for the second straight season. At the beginning of
the offseason Ryan spoke of big plans for addressing the terrible rotation,
but when the dust settled the only moves were trading for Vance Worley and
signing Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey as free agents.
Worley was a sound pickup who should be a solid mid-rotation starter long
term and Pelfrey is a reasonable enough reclamation project with mid-rotation
potential as he comes back from Tommy John elbow surgery, but giving a
two-year, $10 million deal to Correia made little sense when similar or
better pitchers were agreeing to one-year deals all winter. Of the 91
pitchers to throw at least 400 innings as starters since 2010 he ranked 88th
in ERA, 81st in strikeout rate, and 80th in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
And that was it. That was the full extent of the Twins addressing their awful
rotation.
Would-be Opening Day starter Scott Diamond will begin the season on the
disabled list following a setback with what the team called minor elbow
surgery in December and former first-round pick Kyle Gibson isn’t ready for
the majors after Tommy John surgery in late 2011, so the Twins will likely
turn to Samuel Deduno and/or Cole DeVries to fill out the rotation. It’s not
a good sign when the same career minor leaguers who joined the rotation as
emergency options during a miserable season are already back in the mix
before Opening Day.
What else is going on?
‧ As dark as things look for the Twins now the future is extremely bright.
Thanks to the combination of shrewd international signings, high draft picks,
and veteran-for-prospect trades the Twins have built one of the best farm
systems in baseball. They placed six prospects on Baseball America‘s top-100
list, including Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton in the top 10, and will add the
No. 4 overall pick in the draft to the farm system in June. I’ve been
writing about the Twins on my personal blog for 11 years and this is the
best, deepest farm system they’ve had in that time.
‧ Sano and Buxton are still teenagers and years away from the majors, but
the Twins look likely to get an immediate impact from the farm system by
naming Aaron Hicks their Opening Day center fielder. Hicks has yet to play
above Double-A, but the former first-round pick is a standout defender with
an elite arm and improved significantly at the plate last season by adding
power to his already strong patience. Delaying the start of his service time
clock by sending him to Triple-A for a month or so would seemingly make
sense, but all signs point to the Twins handing Hicks the job now.
‧ Ron Gardenhire enters his 13th season as Twins manager without a contract
beyond this year and most of his coaching staff was fired or reassigned
during the offseason, leading to speculation that another 90-loss season
would lead to his exit. He’s the second-longest tenured manager in MLB
behind Mike Scioscia.
‧ If the Twins get off to another bad start it’ll be interesting to see if
they begin shopping veterans. In the past they’ve largely shied away from
that, choosing to let guys like Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel leave via
free agency, but Justin Morneau will be a free agent after the season and
Josh Willingham isn’t exactly part of the long-term plans at age 34.
‧ Joe Mauer took an incredible amount of heat locally for an injury wrecked
2011 season, which tends to happen when you miss half the year after signing
a $184 million contract. He bounced back in a huge way last season, setting
career-highs in games and plate appearances while hitting .319 with the
highest on-base percentage in the league. Mauer was paid $23 million last
season and Fan Graphs calculated his on-field value at … $23 million. Joe
Mauer ain’t the problem.
‧ Target Field is an amazing place to watch a game and easily one of MLB’s
best ballparks, but as the Twins enter Year 4 there they’ve already
squandered much of the new ballpark excitement by putting out a terrible
product. Only the Astros had a bigger attendance drop last year as Minnesota
fell into the middle of the pack, and 20 percent of season ticket holders did
not renew. And that becomes a chicken-or-egg situation, because the Twins
have sliced payroll from $115 million in 2010 to $80 million this year in
part due to decreased revenue, but the lack of spending has also helped turn
the team into something no one wants to watch.
Prediction: Fifth place, American League Central
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