That's Debatable: Who is the NL Cy Young?

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者YGJHSU (杰)時間17年前 (2008/09/04 00:10)推噓8(8推 0噓 1→)

留言9則, 8人參與討論串1/1

前文恕刪我來簡單翻譯一下這篇文章好了因為個人對NL Cy最後究竟獎落誰家也蠻好奇的原文： That's Debatable: Who is the NL Cy Young? Who should be the NL Cy Young award winner? [Brandon] Webb? [Tim] Lincecum? or CC [Sabathia]? Can a pitcher who wasn't even in the National League two months ago (Sabathia) win the Cy Young? Can a pitcher who was 19-4 until a week ago (Webb) not win the Cy Young? Can voters finally learn to ignore win totals and give proper consideration to maybe the best candidate of all (Lincecum)? That's what we're here to debate, friends -- an NL Cy Young race that gets more fascinating, and confusing, all the time. So let's sort this out as best we can. The case for Webb Despite two shockingly messy losses in the last week, Brandon Webb is still having a fabulous season. He's just about a lock to lead the league in wins. He could still wind up leading the league in innings pitched. He has a better strikeout-to-walk ratio than Lincecum (3.14 to 3.00). And we have to be realistic about how voters have historically voted on this award. 儘管最近兩場輸的難看，但蛇王整季的表現仍非常精彩。他在勝投及局數這兩項取得領先同時有著比Lincecum更佳的K/BB。不可忽視的是，投票者對於這個獎項一貫的態度。 If we don't count years in which relief pitchers won, there have only been three years under the current voting system (implemented in 1970) that a pitcher lost a Cy Young in a season in which he had at least four more wins than the award-winner. 除去拿到Cy的RP不看，1970年後只有3次，勝投數領先該年Cy winner四場以上的投手沒拿到Cy。 One was 1999, when Randy Johnson (17-9, 2.48) beat Mike Hampton (22-4, 2.90) in a season in which the Unit (364 K's) made a run at Nolan Ryan's modern strikeout record. Another was 1984, the Rick Sutcliffe year, which I'll get to later. And the third was 1973, when Ron Bryant went 24-12 for the Giants but was considered so un-ace-like that he only finished third. (The winner, Tom Seaver, had 108 more strikeouts than Bryant and an ERA a run and a half lower.) So history tells us that as long as Webb straightens himself out, he's still likely to win this award. 第一次是99年Randy Johnson (該年他擊敗兩位20勝級投手)，但是飆出了接近Nolan Ryan 現代棒球單季三振的紀錄。第二次是84年Rick Sutcliffe。第三次是73年Ron Bryant。歷史告訴我們，只要Webb繼續照他的進度走下去，他很有可能拿下Cy。 The case for Lincecum Tim Lincecum has been getting way too little play in this debate for way too long, anyway. But Webb's mini-funk has helped bring Lincecum back into the conversation. And it's about time. True, Lincecum has four fewer wins (19 to 15). But how much of that is his fault? He's 15-3, with five blown saves and six CUS (?Criminally Unsupported Starts -- games in which he pitched at least six innings and his team scored one run or none while he was in the game). Webb has one blown save and only two CUS. So that accounts for your gap in wins, gang. 目前Lincecum勝投落後Webb 4場，但他成績是15勝3敗。有5場勝投被搞砸，有6場他投滿 6局以上，隊友卻幫他得不到2分。Webb只有1場勝投被搞砸、2場投滿6局以上，隊友打的分數不到2分的狀況。所以這就造成了4場勝場的差距。艮。 Toss wins out of the discussion, and Lincecum looks as if he has clearly outpitched Webb by most standards. Lincecum leads in ERA by more than three-quarters of a run (2.43 to 3.19), leads in strikeouts by 50 (210 to 160) and tops the league in both categories. Lincecum also leads the NL in OPS allowed (.609), quality-start percentage (22 of 27, 81 percent) and strikeout ratio (10.2 per 9 IP). And unlike Sabathia, you may have noticed that he has been in the same league, on the same team, all season. 不看勝投的話，Lincecum在大部分標準衡量都比Webb出色：ERA比較低(2:60:3.19) 三振比較多(216:160)，同時在這兩項都是聯盟第一。Lincecum另外領先國聯的數據是，OPS 最低(.609) QS比率最高(81%) 以及K/9 (10.2)。不像C.C.，Lincecum整年都待在巨人隊真是有夠悲慘。 The case for Sabathia If we had a Cy Young Since July 8 Award, CC Sabathia definitely would win that one. Since he first took the mound in Bud Selig's favorite metropolis, Sabathia leads the league in wins (9-0), ERA (1.43), innings pitched (88) and shutouts (three). He has also been a jolt of electricity for his franchise, and one of the great pennant-race acquisitions of all time. 如果Cy可以從7/8之後開始算，C.C一定可以拿下。他從那之後繳出了9勝 1.43ERA 3場完封的鬼神演出。帶給酒鬼無限的希望。 What he hasn't been, unfortunately, is a National Leaguer (or a Brewer) all year. 可惜他不是整季的國聯、或者說是酒鬼隊投手。 So he can only win this award if the Rick Sutcliffe Principal applies. Sutcliffe is the only pitcher ever to change leagues in midseason and win a Cy Young. But in 1984, the year he won, he was traded on June 13 -- nearly a month earlier than Sabathia -- and had time to go 16-1. That gave him 20 wins for the full season, equal to the total of the winningest NL pitcher, Joaquin Andujar (20-14). Then again, if Sabathia goes 5-0 in September, that would make him 14-0 as a Brewer, 20-8 for the full season. The question is: Would that be enough? 回頭看看84年的Sutcliffe。他是史上唯一一位換聯盟還拿到Cy的投手。但在1984，他被交易那年，他是6/13被交易的，比C.C早一個月左右。因此他可以把他後半季的成績延伸到16勝1敗。如果C.C九月5戰全勝，就可以把國聯成績推進到14勝0敗，整季20勝8敗。這樣夠嗎? The verdict Like everyone else who has watched Sabathia pitch, I'd love to figure out a way to give him some kind of award. But this is the "National League Cy Young," not the "Multi-League Cy Young" or the "Final 2 3/4-Months of the Year Cy Young." So I think this award should go to the pitcher who has outperformed all his National League competition for the entire season, not just the portion of the season in which Sabathia has been in his league. And if you look seriously at the big picture -- not just win totals or the last two months -- I believe that pitcher is Tim Lincecum. 結論:C.C應該沒有機會了，儘管他下半季表現讓人印象超深刻。如果你不要把眼光單單放在勝投，或是最近兩個月的表現上的話，我的選擇會是Tim Lincecum。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.134.179.129 ※ 編輯: YGJHSU 來自: 220.134.179.129 (09/04 00:12) ※ 編輯: YGJHSU 來自: 220.134.179.129 (09/04 00:25)