2010 Five questions: Houston Astros

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者MonkeyFly (修理修理內尬內尬)時間15年前 (2010/04/02 15:33)推噓3(3推 0噓 3→)

留言6則, 5人參與討論串1/1

The 2009 Houston Astros performed down to expectations, finishing with a 74-88 record. Drayton McLane, the owner, had ordered the general manager, Ed Wade, to "work with" Tal Smith, the president of baseball operations, to keep the team "competitive" without signing free agents to more than one-year contracts. To keep a long story short, Ed Wade's cheap free agents—Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz and Jason Michaels— didn't help the team win. Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman both suffered from injuries and decreased effectiveness. Carlos Lee posted a 118 OPS+, which was his lowest since 2003. Miguel Tejada's 109 OPS+ was negatively balanced by his poor defensive play. 2009年.太空人有個失望的球季.74勝88敗終極警探麥克連爺爺要GM Wade與球隊總裁Tal Smith"合作"讓球隊在沒有簽超過一年約FA 的情況下保持競爭力.但Wade的便宜軍團I-Rod,老漢,Russ Ortiz,Jason Michaels沒幫到球隊什麼. 王牌跟白肥又都因為受傷多多少少影響到.黑肥的118 OPS+是他03年以來最低的.Tejada 的109 OPS+勉強可以跟他糟糕的防守抵銷 On the bright side, Michael Bourn improved greatly, playing a dazzling center field, stealing an NL-high 61 bases and improving his OPS+ to 96 from 54; Wandy Rodriguez continued his excellent pitching, posting a 139 ERA+ over a career-high 205 innings; Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins were solid as closer and setup man; Ed Wade's proclivity for picking very good relievers off waiver wires and team discards proved itself with the emergence of Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias and Tim Byrdak. The manager and pitching coach were heartily disliked by the players and the team had all the cohesion of particles in Brownian motion by the end of the year. The lackadaisical play had them losing 20 out of their last 26 games; the owner specifically instructed the manager to not play any of the young players who had been called up; the fans were bored and disappointed. 在好的方面.Bourn快速的進步:中外野令人驚艷的守備.國聯最多的61次盜壘還有OPS+ 從 54成長到96.Wandy Rodriguez持續高檔.投出139 ERA+以及生涯新高的205局.肥弟跟 LaTroy Hawkins讓後防相當舒服 Wade喜愛在waiver wires撿一些別隊不要但不差的後援投手.並且給他們有機會證明自己. 像Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias and Tim Byrdak. 總教練跟投教都非常不喜歡季末時球員跟球隊間的瀰漫著一股詭異的氣氛.這些無精打采的演出造季末最後26場裡輸了快20場.老闆特別指出教練不敢用被升上來的新秀.球迷都很無聊跟失望 The owner did what he did two years ago when the team had a similar losing record—fired the incompetent manager. This time, he hired a man to manage who had been associated with the Red Sox instead of merely obeying Bud Selig's "suggestion" for manager. He also hired Brad Arnsberg, an experienced pitching coach with a stellar reputation, and fired every other coach with the exception of the hitting coach and replaced them with men from outside the rganization (except for third base coach Dave Clark, also very well liked by the players) instead of merely promoting from within, as usual. So far this spring, the players appear to have very positively responded to both the new manager and pitching coach. While it is quite true that one can't make chicken soup out of chicken, uh, excrement, a positive attitude, enthusiasm and confidence from the players is a change for the better. So, what is in store for the 2010 Astros, given that few people outside of hopeful Astros fans expect to team to improve on last year's record? 當球隊跟兩年前爛的戰績.老闆不免俗的也火掉無能的教練.這次.他選了一個跟紅襪有關的而非按照Bud Selig的建議.他也僱用了有經驗名望的投教Brad Arnsberg.並且除了打教其他的教練都火掉.照例從外面找人來替代他們(除了三壘教練Dave Clark.他也相當受到球員喜愛)而非從內部尋找. 到目前春訓看來.球員都積極地回應新教頭跟投教.然而.再好的教練也是需要配合球員本身.一個積極的態度.熱情以及自信對球員都是變更好的一種轉變. 所以2010年對於太空人來說.能給球迷比去年更好的成績嗎? Will the Astros again insist on using, um, recycled Veteran Presences or give young players a chance? New manager Brad Mills, unlike his predecessor, is actually willing and eager to try young players, but unfortunately for him, Ed Wade is not. Although there is ostensibly a tryout for outfielders Yordany Ramirez, Alex Romero and Brian Bogusevic, Wade has already told reporters and prediction services that 30-year-old lefty Cory Sullivan and his 81 OPS+ will be the fifth-outfielder replacement for Darin Erstad and his grittiness. Cory is almost a duplicate of Erstad—slim, blond, left-handed, seldom walks, strikes out in 20 percent of his at-bats, has very little power, runs fast in center—a born Astro. There was never any doubt about ex-Phillie Jason Michaels and his weak glove and 98 OPS+ taking the fourth-outfielder spot. 問題1:太空人是否會堅持用老將還是給新秀機會呢? 新教練Brad Mills跟前任教頭不同.實際上他願意並傾向給年輕人機會.可惜對他來說. Wade是相反的雖然現在表面看起來在試用外野手Yordany Ramirez,Alex Romero and Brian Bogusevic .但是Wade已經告訴記者並預言30歲的左撇Sullivan跟他的81 OPS+成績將代替Erstad成為第5號外野手 Sullivan幾乎跟Erstad類似.單薄.白人.左撇.很少保送.打數裡有20%被三振.力量低.跑很快---天生的太空人咦.那你應該不會懷疑第4號外野手是Jason Michaels這個爛守備跟98 OPS+取得 Edwin Maysonet.28歲.卻無法取代Keppinger.儘管他比較有才能.特別是防守投手呢?沒有年輕投手有機會被叫上去.除了Felipe Paulino等幾隻少數投手有機會從小聯盟一路走上去.給了他超乎想像的機會.所以.老妖橫行.除非老頭受傷加上你是重點人物或突然成為焦點就會開啟大門不要期待有更好戰績.因為新老人並不會都比老老人好多少 Will Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon effectively replace LaTroy Hawkins and Jose Valverde at setup and closer? Valverde over the past two years was an extremely effective closer who accumulated 69 saves, 11 blown saves and one additional loss. He threw only 54 innings last year because he was injured when a batted ball struck his shin. He recovered fully without incident; he posted an ERA+ of 180. LaTroy Hawkins, picked up off the waiver wire in 2008, threw 84 innings of 1.77 ERA ball over 89 games, compiling 32 holds, 12 saves, four blown saves, three wins and four losses over that year and a half. Neither Matt Lindstrom nor Brandon Lyon has been a particularly effective closer in the past. Lindstrom started 2009 as the Marlins' closer, and by the time he lost his job in June, he had a 6.53 ERA, 20 walks and 26 strikeouts over 31 innings pitched; in spite of his throwing hard, he has had a BB/9 rate over 4 over the past two years and his K/9 rate is 7.1, low for a power-pitching closer. Brandon Lyon was a setup man for the Tigers in 2009, pitching 78.2 innings over 65 games with a 161 ERA+ and losing five games, with an additional blown save, and posting a K/9 rate of 6.5 and a BB/9 of 3.5, a career-high figure. He had a 4.76 ERA, four losses and five blown saves at the end of August 2008, when he lost his closer's job to Chad Qualls. In 2007, he was an extremely effective setup man for Jose Valverde. The probability is not good that either man will duplicate Valverde's success; however, Lyon has proved to be an effective setup man and may serve as a very expensive replacement for Hawkins. The real question is how long will Ed Wade allow each man to continue pitching his assigned inning if he proves ineffective before either replacing him with one of the Astros' young pitchers or, more likely, trading Astros minor leaguers for an expensive Proven Middle Reliever? 問題2:林暴風+獅頭能有效的取代去年的Hawkins+肥弟嗎? 肥弟兩年來是出色的守護神.累積69SV.11BS.以及一次救援敗.他去年被球打到脛受傷只投了54局.他充分的恢復並繳出ERA+ 180的成績 LaTroy Hawkins是2008年撿來的.這一年半他出賽了89場投了近84局並繳出Era 1.77還有 32個中繼點.12個SV.3勝4敗的成績林暴風跟獅頭都不足以承擔守護神的位置.2009年開季林暴風是馬林魚的守護神.但是6月就丟了這個位置他的ERA高達6.53並在超過31局的投球有20個BB跟26K.儘管他投得很賣力 .但是他的BB/9值超過4也比他過去兩年高.而K/9值7.1則比其它威力型守護神低獅頭09年在老虎隊裡當佈局投手.出賽65場78.2局.成績是161 ERA+輸掉了5場比賽以及一次的BS --K/9值6.5以及BB/9值3.5.一個生涯高峰的數字 08年ERA 4.76.4次敗投和5個BS是他在Chad Qualls 8月接手守護神前的成績.但07年它可是在肥弟上場前最出色的佈局投手.要複製出肥弟的成績是不可能的.獅頭可能會繳出不錯的佈局投手成績.但那只是非常貴的Hawkins @@ 真正的問題是如果牛棚開始爆爆樂Wade會讓這些牛稱到什麼時候換新秀上來試試呢?事實上.太空人會用年輕人交易來有經驗的中繼投手的機率比較大 Will the much-hyped (by the Astros organization) Jason Castro be given the starting catching position to start the year? Ed Wade has told reporters on the record that Humberto Quintero WILL be the backup catcher; his 58 OPS+ combined with his virtual refusal to walk and propensity to strike out make him the ideal backup catcher, except for his mediocre defensive skills. Castro had a .747 OPS over 239 at-bats at Double-A Corpus Christi in 2009, and he has never faced Triple-A pitching. His opponent for the starting position is 26-year-old J.R. Towles, who failed when given the job of starting catcher in 2008. However, he has an .842 OPS at Triple-A over 356 at-bats and is hitting the ball well in spring training: 11-for-20. If he continues to hit this well, he will probably be given the starting job again, and the Astros will hold Castro back until the Super Two deadline has passed. If Castro is hitting well at Triple-A and if Towles is not hitting well, Castro may be promoted even earlier. The Astros apparently think that Castro is the next Johnny Bench. 問題3:令人興奮的Jason Castro有機會在今年看到他先發蹲捕嗎? Wade告訴記者Quintero會是備用捕手.58 OPS+還有不願意等保送又很容易被K.除了二流的守備.是個典型的替補 Castro 09年在2A超過239個打數繳出.747 OPS .但他還沒上過3A 他的競爭對手是26歲的毛巾小弟.08年在大聯盟有一段相當失敗的開季但是.他在3A超過356個打數繳出.842 OPS並且春訓也打得很好:11-for-20 他如果持續這樣的表現.有可能再度開季先發.然後就能下放Castro並延後他的仲裁資格但如果Castro在3A適應良好.毛巾小弟又打不起來.可能Castro會更早被推上前線太空人認為他是下一個Johnny Bench Will the monster that is Lance Berkman in even years return for an encore in 2010? Lance Berkman had a down year (for him) last year, posting a .274/.396/.509/.907 line. He slumped badly to begin the year, posting only a .743 OPS after four weeks of play, and insisted he was not hurt. He then recovered his stroke after sitting out three days, and increased his OPS to .943 by July 22, then missed 25 games because of an injury to his right calf. He did finish with a 139 OPS+ over 136 games, not exactly a poor showing, but many point to his even years' OPS+ since 2002 of 150, 159, 163, 159 and compare them to his odd years since 2003 of 138, 143, 130, 139 and declare that this can't be normal variation, which, of course, it is. This is also his walk year on his five-year contract, and if Berkman has recovered from his minor knee arthroscopy, I would expect him to post at least the same slash line that he did last year over 160 games. 問題4:白肥會在2010年再度變成偶數年怪物嗎? 去年對白肥來說是打得很差的一年.打擊四圍是.274/.396/.509/.907 開季就開始烙賽.1個月後才繳出.743 OPS.並且宣稱:我沒有受傷但是.他休息了3天後卻開始人來瘋.在6月22日時OPS增加到 .943 然後因為他的右小腿受傷錯過25場比賽在136場比賽裡繳出了139 OPS+.雖然不算太差但比對他2002年以來偶數年的OPS+ 150, 159, 163, 159 比較他2003年來基數年的 138, 143, 130, 139 這些數據當然不能說是正常的變化. 今年也是他走到合約的第5年.如果手術後恢復良好我可以期待他出賽超過160場然後繳出一份好的成績單 Will Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and/or Roy Oswalt be traded for prospects? It is not that Ed Wade refuses to try to rebuild, but that all three of those players have COMPLETE no-trade clauses. Carlos Lee has said, on the record, at least three times, that he will refuse any trade; in fact, he has so far refused three trades. Lance Berkman is in the last year of his contract and has been adamant about refusing to be traded to any team except the Rangers, who don't need a first baseman. However, if the Astros make it clear to him that they will not pick up his $15 million option for 2011, it is possible that he might agree to a trade at the deadline. Even if he has to leave Texas. Roy Oswalt has one more year on his five-year deal, and if he posts good numbers in the first half, and if the Astros are doing very poorly, and if Roy demands a trade, he may be traded at the deadline, although it is doubtful because his top two teams are the Braves and the Cardinals. Had Drayton McLane not replaced the pitching coach in the offseason, chances are excellent that Oswalt would himself have demanded a trade. However, the probability is that neither will be traded because the owner wants them both to spend their entire career in an Astros uniform, as Bagwell and Biggio did. And Drayton McLane is the most interfering owner in the majors, now that The Boss has essentially retired. 問題5:為了遠景是否該把黑白雙肥交易出去.甚至是Oswalt 不是Wade不想要重建.而是因為陣中有3位球員擁有NTC 根據報導.黑肥說他至少3次拒絕被交易.事實確實是3次交易失敗白肥是最後一年合約.他堅決只能被交易到條子.剛好條子不缺一壘手然而.只要球團不執行他的2011年選擇權.想必白肥也只能同意被交易出去.即使因此離開德州王牌離他的5年約還有一年多.如果他上半季投的不錯.然後太空人持續低迷.而且王牌想被交易.那麼他有機會在截止日前被交易.雖然是很困難的.因為他最喜歡的2個選擇是斧頭幫或紅雀麥克連爺爺有可能在季後換一個投教嗎?只要王牌要求被交易.機會是可能的因為.麥克連爺爺並不想交易他們2個.而是希望他們終身都穿著太空人的球衣.就像老巴跟BGO 麥克連爺爺曾經是聯盟中干預最多的老闆.但現在已經交給年輕人了 Bonus question: Will Ed Wade obtain more middle relievers before Opening Day? Does the sun rise in the east? Is the Pope Catholic? Are the Astros thanking their lucky stars that the Pirates exist so that they won't finish last in the NL Central? 附帶問題:Wade是否會在開季前獲得多點牛太陽是從東邊升起吧?教宗是信仰天主教吧?太空人是否會想:超爽德.有海盜在國聯中區幫忙墊底.答案是肯定的第一次翻.感謝賜教@@ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.122.38.218