2010 Five questions: Los Angeles Angels

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者mosh (月古止手)時間15年前 (2010/04/04 20:50)推噓14(14推 0噓 5→)

留言19則, 16人參與討論串1/1

Five questions: Los Angeles Angels http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-los-angeles-angels4/ 1. Will Brandon Wood keep the third base job? Brandon Wood能守三壘嗎？ Brandon Wood put himself on the top prospect map five years ago, hitting 43 homers in the California League at age 20. It's been a long wait for both him and his fans to see what he can do with regular big league playing time. He's spent most of the past three years at Triple-A and has hit poorly in 236 big league plate appearances. In his defense, his playing time was very sporadic; his typical pattern was to sit for a full week, get one start, sit another week, get an at-bat at the end of the game, etc. Wood五年前就以20歲的年紀在 California League 打出43隻HR 成為當時天使的最佳新秀了，而在他獲得穩定的大聯盟先發機會之前他和他的球迷們也等待了很長的一段時間，迫不及待想知道會有什麼樣的表現過去三年他幾乎都在3A，而被短暫拉上大聯盟的236個打席中也打的不怎麼樣至於他在大聯盟的守備機會也很少，常常是坐板凳一個禮拜，然後上場一天然後再坐板凳一個禮拜，然後在球賽末段上來代打後守備，諸如此類 The big hole in his game has always been strikeouts, but he has made tremendous progress in cutting down on those: Over the past four years in the minors his strikeout rate has gone from 33 percent to 27, to 26, and finally to 21 percent of his at-bats last season. Given a full opportunity, I think he has improved to the point where he can keep his batting average above .250. The downside to a shorter swing is that his power slipped a bit last year as well, from 31 homers to 22 in about the same number of Triple-A at-bats. On defense, all reports from Angels camp are good for the former shortstop, and I arrived at a spring training game just in time to watch him record all three outs in an inning. In another organization, I could see the team telling him not to worry about the strikeouts and just try to crush the ball. In that case, his upside would be similar to Mark Reynolds in Arizona. That is not going to happen with the Angels; manager Mike Scioscia will not tolerate that many strikeouts. A better bet is a career that looks a bit like that of Joe Crede, who also put himself on the prospect map at age 20 before stalling and getting three years of Triple-A. Crede settled in as a .250/.300/.450 hitter before back problems hurt his career. With some luck and better health, Wood can establish himself at that level and develop a bit beyond that: .270/.330/.500 could be his peak ability. 過去他吃了一堆三振，現在他有了很明顯的進步：過去四年他在小聯盟的被三振率從33%→27%→26%→21% 藉由給他足夠的機會，我相信他能進步到打擊率高於.250 而劣勢在於他揮棒的動作讓他喪失小幅度的power：HR從31降到22 至於他的防守，所有從天使獲得的報告都指出將會比原本的SS好而我也剛好在某一場春訓的比賽中看到了他在同一局處理的三個出局數如果是在其他球隊，我可能會看到他們要求 Wood不要擔心被三振，只要把球幹出場就好在這種情況下的話 Wood 長的好的話就會很像響尾蛇的超大電風扇 Reynolds 不過在天使這種情況不會發生，因為 Scioscia 無法忍受打者吃一堆三振所以如果 Wood 長的好的話應該會比較像 Crede 而 Crede 剛好也是20歲成為球隊的頂級新秀，也花了三年的時間在3A練功在被背傷困擾前 Crede 是個.250/.300/.450的打者在比較幸運(不是在響尾蛇)和比較健康的情況下 Wood 應該能成為比 Crede 還要好一點的打者，.270/.330/.500可能會是他的生涯年數據 2. Who will lead off? 誰將會打第一棒? The Angels will miss Chone Figgins, his 101 walks and his 42 steals in the leadoff role. There is nobody who will be as perfect for the leadoff spot on the roster. Erick Aybar will get the first shot at the job. If Aybar can repeat his excellent .312/.353/.423 season from last year, he will be a perfectly acceptable, if not ideal, leadoff hitter. I'd love to see Aybar keep the batting average and take 100 walks too. I'd also love to win the lottery. 天使將會懷念去年第一棒 Figgins 的101次保送和42次盜壘目前天使的陣容中沒有比 Figgins 更適合打第一棒的人選，而現在表定的是 Aybar。如果他能複製他去年的.312/.353/.423成績，那將是令人滿意-但並非最理想的-第一棒我很樂於見到他保持同樣的打擊率並拿到100個保送，同樣的，我也很享受中樂透的感覺 [Aybar 生涯四個球季累積了54個保送] I worry about Aybar trying to be Figgins and messing up his game. He's an aggressive hitter, and needs to stay with the approach that got him to the level of a starting major league shortstop. I know small sample size warnings and the meaninglessness of spring training stats, but Aybar so far has taken six walks (against 34 at-bats) and is hitting only .235. I hope he doesn't mess himself up trying to be something he's not. If Aybar can't handle the leadoff role, the best candidate on the team would be Maicer Izturis, who is very similar to Figgins except he'd steal only a half or a third as many bases. Izturis probably will get a lot of playing time against right handers in any case, with Howie Kendrick and Wood alternating days off. In the No. 2 spot the Angels have an excellent on-base man in Bobby Abreu, so even if leadoff proves problematic, the middle of the order will not starve for RBI opportunities. 我很擔心 Aybar 為了能有和 Figgins 一樣的表現而搞砸他自己的表現他是個具有侵略性的打者，而且必須持續進步到大聯盟游擊手的平均水準我知道那些春訓的小樣本、無意義的數據：34個打席中拿了6個保送，打擊率僅.235 我希望他不要因為嘗試扮演一個不屬於他的角色而搞砸他自己的表現如果 Aybar 無法扮演好第一棒的角色，那取代的人選將會是 Izturis 除了盜壘數較少(一半左右)以外，Izturis 和 Figgins 是很類似的球員在 Kendrick 和 Wood 輪休的時候，他可能會在面對右投的時候打第一棒因為第二棒是具有上壘能力的 Abreu，即使第一棒存在著不少問題之後的棒次並不會缺乏打點的機會 3. Will the pitching be good enough to win another division championship? 投手群有好到能再次拿下分組冠軍嗎？ The Angels could have a top starting rotation if Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir put arm trouble behind them and regain their 2008 forms. Santana struck out 214 against only 47 walks that year, and Kazmir struck out more than a batter per inning each year from 2006 to 2008. Joel Pineiro doesn't strike out anybody, but his groundball tendency will meet 2009's best infield when it came to turning double plays. The Angels just have to hope he doesn't turn into Carlos Silva (whose 2007 season with the Twins looks a lot like the low strikeout/low walk/ground-balling season Pineiro just completed). Jered Weaver's stuff has never suggested dominance, but he strikes out three for every walk and has proven he can handle a major league starter's workload. As such, he projects as one of the 30 best starters in the game. Joe Saunders has not pitched as well as his 48-22 career record suggests but is a solid, dependable pitcher who can keep you in the game. 如果 Santana 和 Kazmir 手臂沒問題而且能重回到2008的表現的話天使將會擁有頂級的先發輪值 [今天 Kazmir 剛被放進15-DL] Santana 在08年丟了214個三振並只保送了47次而 Kazmir 從06~08年每年平均每局三振超過1人 Pineiro 沒丟多少三振，不過屬於滾地球投手的他可以製造一堆雙殺但天使得祈求 Pineiro 別變成下一個 Silva (2007在雙城是低三振低保送的滾地球投手) 即使 Weaver 稱不上能宰制打者，但他每保送1人就能三振3人而且他也證明了他能當一個稱職的大聯盟先發 (他被評估為前30的好投手之一) 雖然 Saunders 的投球內容並非像帳面上48W22L的生涯成績那麼好但他能讓你的隊伍在比賽中保持競爭力，是個可以依賴的投手 The upside is two aces, a 15-game winner in Weaver, and two guys at the back of the rotation around .500. But I can't predict pitcher health. Serious injuries could mean subpar performance (like Santana last year up to August) and more starts from Matt Palmer and youngsters Trevor Bell and Sean O'Sullivan. A healthy staff should win the division, an injured one could make 2010 a rebuilding year. 輪值優勢在於有兩個Ace、15W的 Weaver、以及兩個勝率將近5成的投手但我沒辦法預測他們是否能保持健康，傷勢嚴重將嚴重影響球隊表現就像去年八月才回來的 Santana，期間由 Palmer、Bell、O'Sullivan 頂替如果有健康的先發輪值將很有可能贏得分組冠軍，但如果是痛痛輪值的話2010很可能會變成重建期[有這麼嚴重？] 4. Do the Angels have enough depth to survive injuries? 出現傷兵的話，板凳夠深嗎？ They have some depth, but not as much as in years past. Last year, after the starting infield they had Izturis as a super sub, and if more than one replacement was needed Wood and Sean Rodriguez were crushing the ball in Triple-A. This year they can stand one infield injury or major slump without losing too much production, but once Maicer is in the starting lineup, the safety net is not there. Freddy Sandoval might be the next utility infielder; he's a 27-year-old who makes decent contact and plays mostly first and third, with a few games per year as an emergency second baseman. 深度還算有，但不像去年那麼好去年的內野板凳是很不錯的 Izturis，而如果需要第二個人備用天使還有 Wood 和 Rodriguez 正在3A屠殺今年如果有一個人受傷或是低潮，天使還有人可以頂替使整體表現不會差太多但是一旦 Maicer 上場，就代表天使能看的板凳全上了 27歲、便宜的 Sandoval 可能是下一個內野工具人(主要守1B、3B，緊急時可以頂2B) In the outfield, Reggie Willits brings speed and hustle to the park, but has absolutely no power in his bat. Terry Evans might make the team as a fifth outfielder. He's now 28, has shown some speed and power in Triple-A but has no idea of the strike zone. The Angels don't want either one playing significant time in the outfield, but with the ages of Abreu (36), Torii Hunter (34) and Hideki Matsui (36) they probably will be forced to. Peter Bourjos could represent the best backup option in the outfield. The 23-year-old is unproven with the bat but has great speed and instincts as a center fielder. If Bourjos develops quickly, he could change the whole makeup of the team, hurting a bit at the plate but greatly improving the outfield defense. I expect Bourjos to battle for a starting big league job in 2011, possibly taking over a corner with Matsui leaving and Abreu sliding into the DH role. (I don't expect him to move Hunter out of center even if he proves to have more range.) Replacing Abreu's glove with that of Bourjos would save the team about 30 runs, and I don't think that is an exaggeration at all. 外野(板凳)部分 Willits 是個有速度但是毫無power的腿姬 28歲的 Evans 將會是第五號外野手，在3A有速度、有power，但是不知道好球帶在哪天使一點也不想讓這兩名其中一名常常出現在外野但是有著一群老外野手Abreu(36), Hunter(34), 松井(36)可能讓他們不得不這麼做即使尚未證明他的打擊能力，有著CF要求的速度和落點判斷直覺 23歲的 Bourjos 可能是天使外野手最好的替代人選如果 Bourjos 長的夠快，即使他會小幅傷害打線，但他將大幅提升天使外野防守的實力我認為 Bourjos 會在2011年取代松井離開的缺上MLB，而 Abreu 會去打DH 即便他的防守範圍較大，我還是不認為他能取代守CF的 Hunter 用 Bourjos 去取代 Abreu 的手套可以多守下約30分－這一點也不誇張 5. The Angels have beaten preseason projections regularly. Why is that? 天使為什麼總能顛覆所有季前的戰積預測？ They have done a few things right recently, and one is to score more runs than you'd expect given their number of hits, walks and extra base hits. The main reason is because they have hit so well with runners in scoring position. I don't expect that to continue to such a degree, because I don't understand why any player would become a better hitter just because of the situation. If you have the ability to hit .320 when it really counts, why hit only .280 when nobody is on base? You should be hitting your best all the time so the guy behind you can hit with runners in scoring position. 天使達成了不少事，而其中一件是靠著安打、保送、和長打得到比你預期還多的分數最主要的原因在於他們得點圈有人的打擊非常棒不過我不認為同樣的表現他們能持續下去因為我無法理解為何只在得點圈有人的情況下才打的特別好？如果你有能力打.320，為何你要選擇在壘上沒有人的時候打.280？每個打席你都應該盡你所能，這樣你的下一個打者才會有得點圈打擊的機會 Another reason they score a few more runs is aggressive base-running—the Angels were far in the lead when it comes to going first to third or second to home. I don't know if we can expect that to continue, looking at the players. The Angels' best baserunner of the last half decade is now in Seattle. Right now, the Angels have these players on the bases: * Speedy: Erick Aybar * Slightly above average: Kendrick, Izturis * Old guys who are smart baserunners and can pick their spots: Abreu, Hunter * Average speed: Wood * Run well (for a catcher): Jeff Mathis, Mike Napoli * God-awful slow and they know it: Matsui, Kendry Morales * God-awful slow and runs into way too many outs: Juan Rivera 另一個理由是他們積極的跑壘讓他們搶下更多的分數：一支安打能讓壘上跑者從1B上3B、或是2B回來得分的這部份天使遙遙領先全MLB 我不確定我們是否能期待今年有同樣的情況發生畢竟原本這五年裡最好的跑者(Figgins)現在在水手隊下面是目前天使的跑者群： * 快腿：Aybar * 有著很不錯的速度：Kendrick, Izturis * 經驗老到的：Abreu, Hunter * 速度普普的：Wood * (以捕手來說)速度算不錯的：Mathis, Napoli * 大家都知道跑很慢的：松井, Morales * 跑很慢又會自殺的：Rivera With that crew, I have a hard time seeing anything more than a slightly above average base-running team. The 2010 Angels do have good power, all the way down to Napoli, Kendrick and Wood in the last three spots, and will probably play more station-to-station ball than Angels fans are used to seeing. There is the matter of arranging their runs in such a way that they win more games than you expect from runs scored and runs allowed. Some say that a team with a well-leveraged bullpen can pull that off. That describes the 2008 Angels, who lost some real lopsided games, getting terrible mop-up relief. But when the game was close, they could hand the ball to Francisco Rodriguez: He set the single-season save record. Last season, the Angels beat their Pythagorean record from the start of the season to the end, despite having an absolutely horrible bullpen the first two months. 有著這群跑者，我很難想像他們還會屬於速度略優於平均的隊伍 2010的天使的打擊火力更強大，7~9棒將會是Napoli, Kendrick 和 Wood 而且天使迷將會看到熟悉的蠶食分數的棒球 [不是很確定] 這就是天使如何搶分的方式藉由得到比預測更多分、失分比預測更少的方式，贏得比預測來的更多場的勝利有人說破爛的牛棚不會讓天使贏得更多場比賽，這點在2008年可以得證：當年他們的火牛陣讓他們在一些大比分差的比賽被慘電不過當比數接近的時候，他們把球交給後來創下單季最多救援數紀錄的K-Rod [當時就算領先6、7分，負責做球的火牛們總是有辦法讓K-Rod上來賺救援點] 因為前兩個月的火牛陣，讓去年天使打破了開低走高的紀錄 I don't expect some of these trends of the last few seasons to continue. To win the division in 2010, the Angels will need to score about 100 runs more than they allow. Chris Jaffe's recent book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers, measures managers by five categories: individual hitters (do the hitters play better or worse than their projections?), individual pitchers (same, but for pitchers), Pythagenpat difference (winning more games than expected from runs scored and allowed), team offense (getting more runs than expected from a combination of walks, hits, homers, steals, etc.) and team defense (allowing fewer based on those inputs). Believe it or not, Scioscia was about dead average in Pythagenpat (the book used only data through 2006. Scioscia's best rating was individual pitchers, +214 runs or about 30 per season. 我不認為這些過去幾季的現象會都持續下去天使得得更多的分數，至少要比他們掉分多100分以上才有機會贏得2010美西冠軍在 Chris Jaffe 的 "Evaluating Baseball's Managers" 一書中，將管理分成五大類：打者個人表現：打者們打的比預期好還是差？投手個人表現：投手們投的比預期好還是差？ Pythagenpat差異：由得更多分、失更少分以贏得比預期來的更多的勝利？團隊打擊表現：團隊整體是否藉由保送、安打、全壘打、盜壘等方式得到更多分？團隊投手表現：能讓對手更少上壘？信不信由你，Scioscia 最差的部分就是 Pythagenpat[這字實在不會翻冏]。該書的數據記載到2006，而 Scioscia 最好的部分是投手個人表現 [+214 runs or about 30 per season這部份不曉得是什麼數據] I don't know if that trend will continue, but it makes sense. Scioscia may be better than most at getting a pitcher out before he runs out of gas, even if it makes him unpopular (think of John Lackey's final walk from an Angels mound in the ALCS). He never overworks his pitchers, rarely allowing any to throw 120 pitches, and, according to Jaffe, has never had a starting pitcher throw 225 innings. As a defensive-minded catcher himself, Scioscia is very tough on his catchers, and if they fall into bad habits with their game-calling or receiving he does not hesitate to pull a .500 slugging bat from the lineup and insert a career .200 hitter. I don't know how much of an effect catcher game-calling can have, but I'm willing to consider that Scioscia does. 我不確定這種趨勢是否會持續下去，不過這很合理即使這會讓他不受歡迎，Scioscia 或許在判斷投手是否快沒力的方面是很厲害的想想去年 Lackey 去年ALCS下丘的情況 [當時 Lackey 在說瞎要換投的時候說了兩次this (game) is mine後一臉臭臉被換下去] 他不操他的投手，極少讓投手投超過120球，且從不讓投手整季投超過225局曾經身為以防守為主的捕手，Scioscia 對捕手們非常嚴格如果他們出現了壞習慣[game-calling or receiving 不知道是哪種習慣] Scioscia會毫不猶豫的把.500的大棒子換下去，然後把生涯.200的爛棒子換上來我不曉得這種習慣會造成多大的影響，不過我相信 Scioscia 這部份的作為 References: Baseball-reference.com, Evaluating Baseball's Managers 首次翻譯，有錯請指教:p -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 110.33.57.12

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kimifort

04/04 20:51, , 1^F

04/04 20:51, 1^F

感謝提醒:p

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jdtrue

04/04 20:54, , 2^F

04/04 20:54, 2^F

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ninini

04/04 21:19, , 3^F