美聯MVP競賽已經結束了
http://tinyurl.com/8nuwomq
Hey guys (gender inclusive)? Guys. I hate to interrupt. But listen for a
second.
Look, I know that Miguel Cabrera is an awesome baseball player, and I know he
had a huge game last night, and that he's currently two homers back of Josh
Hamilton from being in a position to win the first Triple Crown since 1967
(as I write this, he appears to be about five points up over Trout in the
batting race, and six RsBI over Hamilton). That'd be a pretty amazing
accomplishment, and I know that it's gotta be tempting to go around touting
his MVP credentials.
我知道肥卡布是很了不起的球員 即將挑戰1967年後首次三冠王 (注: 已經達成了)
這是了不起的成就
Here's the thing, though, guys: there's no AL MVP discussion this year. That
was canceled. I'm sorry, I thought you'd heard. It's Mike Trout. They made
the announcement, like, two months ago. I don't know what rumors you've heard
or whatever, but nope, that hasn't changed. It's still off.
但美聯MVP非Mike Trout莫屬
The various Wins Above Replacement measures break it down like this (through
Tuesday; they'll tick a bit in Miggy's favor when the numbers are updated
tomorrow):
WARP fWAR rWAR
Miguel Cabrera 5.2 6.3 6.1
Mike Trout 8.0 9.3 10.2
WAR(P) shouldn't be taken as gospel -- any one of them, or even, I guess, in
cases like this in which they all strongly point in one direction -- but
that's a pretty huge difference. When three very different groups of smart
people take smart approaches to trying to assign value to ballplayers and
they all come out the same way by a huge margin, if you want to argue that
the one they all agree is less valuable is actually more valuable, I think
you've got a pretty steep hill to climb.
從WAR可看的出來 Tourt壓倒性的勝利
如果你想辯解說價值低的那位其實更有價值 那恐怕很費功夫
And (as usual), if you take the numbers apart into their components, I think
they make a ton of sense. You've got hitting, which is obviously Cabrera's
strongest (some might say only) quality. After the huge night last night,
Cabrera's hitting .333/.396/.612; Trout is hitting .328/.395/.559. Slight
edge to Cabrera based on raw numbers (almost all on slugging percentage), but
it turns out that the Big A has been playing as a pitcher's park over the
past several years, Comerica as a slight hitter's park, while Trout has also
had the cavernous Safeco and
whatever-the-hell-they-call-the-Athletics-park-now to contend with.
Accordingly, Trout came into Tuesday with the lead in OPS+, 169 to 165; I
imagine they're roughly tied today, or that Cabrera moved slightly ahead.
(wRC+ probably tells this story better, but that includes other things I want
to break out separately.)
打擊上 修正球場效應後 兩人差距不多
OPS+ doesn't capture all of offense, though. It doesn't tell you, for
instance, that Cabrera has grounded into 28 double plays, leading the Majors
by five, while Trout's had just seven of those. Part of that is opportunity,
of course, Trout being a leadoff hitter and all, but it has certainly
impacted their values, and a lot of it is the vast difference in speed. That
speed has value in other ways, of course. FanGraphs calculates that Trout's
baserunning in ways independent of all the stolen bases -- advancing from
first to third, avoiding running into outs, etc. -- has been worth 6.1 runs
to his team to date, while Cabrera's has cost his team 2.9. Knowing what you
know about their abilities -- just about what they look like running the
bases -- doesn't that sound right to you, or maybe even a little
Miggy-friendly? It sure does to me.
Trout的搶壘能力幫天使多拿下6.1分 而Cabrera則倒扣2.9分
Then there are the steals. SB value is bound up in FanGraphs' wOBA
calculation, but extrapolating from the wOBA formula, it looks like Trout's
incredible 46steals at a 92% success rate has added about 9.5 runs, while
Cabrera's 4-for-5 has added a half run. Doesn't that seem about right, too,
intuitively? SBs get derided a lot (and rightly so, I think), but if you do
it a lot and are almost never caught, you're certainly creating more runs.
This suggests that for about every five steals, factoring in those four CSes,
Trout's gotten the Angels an extra run they wouldn't have had if he stayed
put. I'd buy that.
Trout的盜壘多拿下9.5分 Cabrera 0.5分
Then of course there's defense. Cabrera has been less of a disaster than I
thought he'd be at third base, but he's been bad. The metrics disagree on how
bad -- BP says -3.4 runs, Baseball Reference -4, FanGraphs -9.4. They
similarly agree that Trout has been phenomenal in the outfield, and disagree
wildly on how much: BP +4.6, B-Ref +25(!), FG +13. Cabrera then gets a run
and a half back, somewhat surprisingly, because CF and 3B are viewed as of
equal importance, and Trout has spent more time at the less important LF than
Cabrera has at the much less important DH and 1B. Taking the averages of the
fielding metrics, because why not, Cabrera has cost his team 5.6 runs, Trout
has given his 14.2. Even with the positional adjustment, that's an 18.3-run
advantage for Trout.
Trout防守完爆Cabrera 修正守位後兩人的手套差距有18.3分
If you think Cabrera deserves the MVP, and think you can argue that the
systems and I are way off on any one of those factors (not just that we can't
be 100% certain about the exact numbers, but that it's seriously off for some
reason), please do. Otherwise, that's what we've got: they've been
essentially equal with bats in their hands, and Trout has been much, much
better in every other aspect. The baserunning, basestealing and defense alone
adds up to about a 36-run advantage for Trout; I think the GIDPs could add
another ten or more, but I'm frankly undecided about how to handle that, so I
won't (I don't think it's necessary). 36 runs is a huge number; WAR says, for
example, that Prince Fielder, who has been really, really good, has been
worth about that much over the course of the entire season vis-a-vis a random
replacement-level player. So, basically: Mike Trout has been one whole Prince
Fielder better than Miguel Cabrera.
Trout比Cabrera好上36分 (還沒加上雙殺打的差距)
36分有多少? 大概就是一個Prince Fielder那麼大
簡單來說 Trout = Cabrera+Fielder
Well, almost. Of course, Cabrera has played all but one of his team's games,
while Trout (thanks mostly to his late call-up) has missed 22 of the Angels'.
That certainly has value...but not even close to 36 runs of value, which
would be 1.7 runs for each extra game played. Nobody's ever done that, ever
(the all-time single season runs created leader is Barry Bonds, whose 230 in
2001 came out to 1.5 per game played). Cabrera clearly gets a slight
advantage with the bat, based almost entirely on playing time (as evidenced
by the fact that B-Ref's and FanGraphs' batting runs for the two players are
roughly even, despite including stolen bases). But they certainly don't think
Cabrera's playing time has pushed him that far ahead. You can disagree, but
you've got a lot of arguing and proving stuff to do. It's very hard for me to
see an argument that puts Cabrera ahead of Trout, or even particularly close.
怎麼看Trout都完勝Cabrera 連接近都說不上
So then what else is there? Winning the Triple Crown would be awesome, but it
can't be used to somehow increase Cabrera's value. I assume for these
purposes that most people reading this understand why the batting average and
RBI themselves don't actually add value, but worth noting: (a) per Baseball
Reference (see here and here) the park-adjusted league batting average is
.247 for Trout and .259 for Cabrera; and (b) the RBI, as usual, are mostly a
function of opportunity -- per this, while Cabrera's having driven in 20.3%
of the runners on base for him is good for 3rd in the AL, Trout's 18.3% is
14th (and very close to 10th). Most of the difference is that Cabrera has
batted with 136 more runners on base than Trout has, including 71 more in
scoring position. Also worth noting, if you're caring about those stats, is
that Trout has scored 18 more runs in those 21 fewer games.
三冠王是很了不起的成就 但這頭銜並不能增加Cabrera的價值
And that's about it. If you care about whether or not the MVP comes from a
contending team (which you shouldn't at all, but now is really not the time),
that's a push (Coolstandings gives both teams between a 21% and 23% chance of
making the postseason; BPro gives the Tigers 21% and the Angels 29%). I can't
think of anything else (if you want to argue leadership or something like
that, knock yourself out, you're on your own). It all comes down to Cabrera
having really pretty, and potentially historically interesting, raw batting
numbers, and Tigers fans being very vocal and protective of their guys.
That's all there is. Trout's still running away with this thing.
兩隊季後賽機會也差不多
So, again, sorry guys. I know we're used to having these discussions at this
time of year. And we've still got a lot of great talk out there for you to
enjoy -- the NL MVP is pretty wide open, for instance, and both Cy Youngs,
and we're still technically open for the NL ROY (it's totally Harper's, but
we'll hear you out). The AL MVP and ROY are closed up for the season, though.
Nothing to see here. Hey, try again next year!
國聯MVP還有的戰 兩個賽揚獎也是 國聯ROY也可以討論
但美聯MVP和ROY競爭已經結束了 大家明年見
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