Prospectus Perspective-The New Jack Zoo Review
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15002
Last week, the Seattle Mariners announced a multi-year contract extension for
general manager Jack Zduriencik, putting to rest the speculation that a
second-consecutive losing season would put his job in jeopardy. Keeping
Zduriencik in charge of the rebuilding effort for at least two more years
seems like a wise decision on the surface, but how much has he really
accomplished in his time with the Mariners?
Zduriencik came to Seattle after a disastrous 2008 season that saw the
Mariners finish last in the American League West, and second-to-last in all
of baseball, with a 61-101 record. His appointment signaled a fresh start for
an organization that had endured four losing seasons out of the previous five
and a general manager in Bill Bavasi whose poor decisions had driven his
popularity rating among Seattleites down into Howard Schultz and Courtney
Love territory.
Zduriencik had been given much of the credit for the Milwaukee Brewers’
transformation from National League Central also-rans to consistent division
contenders, mostly due to his drafting of Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and
Ryan Braun in the top seven picks of the amateur draft between 2002-2005. The
success of those three players earned Zduriencik a reputation as an evaluator
with a keen eye for developing bats, but outside of the first round his
discernment was less conspicuous. Only centerfielder Corey Hart (11th round,
2000) and shortstop J.J. Hardy (second round, 2001) have compiled career WARP
totals above 2.4.
Things were even worse on the mound for Zduriencik in Milwaukee. Despite
utilizing three top-16 picks on pitchers from 2001-2006, the Brewers have
only managed to produce one above-average pitcher, Yovani Gallardo (second
round, 2004), whose 15.4 career WARP is more than quadruple that of Milwaukee
’s second most productive pitcher, Dane Eveland (3.7 career WARP).
After being appointed Seattle’s general manager, Zduriencik’s first
significant move was shipping out All-Star closer J.J. Putz, reliever Sean
Green, and outfielder Jeremy Reed in a three-team trade that netted the
Mariners Aaron Heilman, Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez, and Mike Carp from the
Mets and outfielder Franklin Gutierrez from Cleveland. Five weeks later,
Zduriencik turned minor league pitcher Fabian Williamson into reliever David
Aardsma, who had been designated for assignment by Boston. At the end of
January, Zduriencik flipped Heilman to the Cubs for shortstop Ronny Cedeno.
The Mariners started hot in 2009, sitting atop the AL West on May 1, and
staying in the division race through mid-July. This surprising success
deluded fans and Zduriencik into thinking that the Mariners were closer to
contention than they actually were, leading to series of moves the following
offseason that set the organization back to the same place they were when
Zduriencik began in 2008.
In November 2009, the Mariners resigned franchise icon Ken Griffey Jr. to be
its primary designated hitter the following year. In 2009, Griffey managed to
play in 117 games, his highest total since 2007, but he struggled through one
of the worst offensive seasons of his career, managing just a .214/.324/.411
line in 454 at bats.
Next, Seattle signed third baseman Chone Figgins to a four-year, $36 million
contract after he posted a .298/.395/.394 line with 42 steals for the Angels.
Figgins was expected to provide on-base ability and speed at the top of the
lineup. Shortly thereafter, Zduriencik traded right-handers Phillippe Aumont
, the Mariners’ first round draft pick in 2007, and J.C. Ramirez along with
outfielder Tyson Gillies to the Philadelphia Phillies for 2008 AL Cy Young
Award winner Cliff Lee. The following day, Zduriencik and Cubs GM Jim Hendry
consummated the ideal “your problem for my problem” trade, sending Carlos
Silva and $9 million to Chicago in exchange for volatile outfielder Milton
Bradley. On December 23, Zduriencik sent another former first-round pick,
righthander Brandon Morrow, to Toronto for righty reliever Brandon League and
minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez.
Zduriencik saved what would prove to be his best decision of the winter for
after the new year, signing right-hander Felix Hernandez to a five-year, $78
million contract extension that secured the star pitcher’s services in
Seattle through his age-28 season.
Cliff Lee began the 2010 season on the disabled list with a lower abdominal
strain, but the Mariners were still within half a game of first place when he
returned on April 30. By May 30, they’d fallen seven games behind
division-leading Oakland.
In early June, Ken Griffey Jr. abruptly announced his retirement from
baseball. His struggles at the plate (.184/.250/.204) had carried over from
2009 and there was mounting media scrutiny over a report that earlier in the
season he had fallen asleep in the clubhouse during a game.
By the end of June, the Mariners were staring at a 14-game deficit. On July
9, with his club 16 games out of first place, Zduriencik shipped Cliff Lee
and right-handed reliever Mark Lowe to the division-leading Texas Rangers in
exchange for top first base prospect Justin Smoak, second baseman Matt
Lawson, and right-handers Blake Beavan and Josh Lueke.
It could be argued that the Mariners actually came out ahead, prospects-wise,
in the two Lee trades. Phillippe Aumont, while possessing an electric arm,
has struggled with injuries and is now a reliever for the Phillies. Gillies
has missed most of the year with an injury, and J.C. Ramirez just finished
his second season at Double-A Reading, posting a 4.50 ERA with 89 strikeouts
in 144 innings as a 22-year old.
Smoak was the centerpiece of the bounty the Mariners acquired for Lee, but
the Seattle media soon became more interested in the felonious past of the
hard-throwing Lueke. In November 2009, Lueke pleaded no contest to a lesser
charge in a felony case in which he was accused of raping and sodomizing a
young woman who had attended a Bakersfield Blaze game with friends. Seattle
officials insisted they knew nothing of Lueke’s criminal history, but
Rangers GM Jon Daniels contended that he did inform the Mariners of the
charges against Lueke. When Zduriencik also claimed there was nothing he
could do to return Lueke to the Rangers, Daniels again came out and said he
would be willing to reacquire Lueke in a separate transaction. The Mariners
held on to Lueke and he’s now working out of the major league club’s
bullpen after spending most of the season in at Triple-A Tacoma.
The public relations nightmare surrounding the Lueke acquisition would have
cost many other general managers working in more high-pressure media cities
their jobs. In Seattle, it only cost a scouting director. Carmen Fusco, hired
shortly after Zduriencik came to Seattle in 2008 and a veteran of 35 years in
baseball, did not have his contract renewed after the 2010 seasons, largely
due to the fracas caused by the Lueke acquisition.
Things hadn’t gone well on the field in 2010, either, as the Mariners
slumped to another 101-loss season and last place in the AL West. Figgins, in
the first year of his four-year deal with the Mariners, slumped to
.259/.340/.308. As a whole, the team finished dead last in the AL in nearly
every offensive category, including batting average (.236), on-base
percentage (.298), slugging average (.339), runs (513), hits (1,274), doubles
(227), triples (16), home runs (101), and total bases (1,836).
After the mirage of contention in 2009, the reality that the Mariners roster
was devoid of the requisite talent to compete became obvious in 2010. That
winter, there were no Cliff Lee acquisitions. There were no big free agency
splashes. The biggest bat Zduriencik acquired was Jack Cust, who agreed to a
one-year, $2.5 million contract in December. The organization recommitted to
building a consistent contender from within, through scouting and player
development.
As in 2009, the 2011 Mariners got off to a strong start, and in early July
found themselves within three games of first place. The woebegone offense was
threatening to approach historic records for futility, but strong pitching
performances from Felix Hernandez and a precocious Michael Pineda kept the
club in contention. Erik Bedard continued to prove the axiom that he is still
a more than capable pitcher when he’s healthy, and Brandon League solidified
the back of the bullpen with David Aardsma on the disabled list.
Though everyone knew that the plan was to trade away veterans, most notably
Bedard, over the summer, how could a team in contention sell rebuilding to a
fan base when a playoff berth was within reach? It isn’t very often an
organization can be thankful for a 17-game losing streak, but without the one
the Mariners endured from July 6-26, the decision to be sellers at the trade
deadline could have been more difficult.
On July 31, the Mariners made a pair of trades, sending Erik Bedard to Boston
in a three-team trade that brought outfielder Trayvon Robinson to Seattle and
acquiring lefthander Charlie Furbush, righthander Chance Ruffin, outfielder
Casper Wells, and third baseman Fernando Martinez from Detroit in exchange
for pitchers Doug Fister and David Pauley. Robinson and Wells soon became
regulars in the Mariners lineup while Furbush took Fister’s vacated turn in
the rotation.
The offense has started to pick things up, mustering a .273/.327/.409 slash
line in August after three consecutive months no higher than ..228/.289/.354.
Second baseman Dustin Ackley and his former North Carolina teammate, third
baseman Kyle Seager, along with first baseman Mike Carp, led the offensive
resurgence, batting a combined .310 with eight home runs in August.
Ackley, Pineda, and Seager are evidence that the farm system has started to
produce useable talent for the major league club, but there is still a long
way to go before the organization can call itself sustainable. Zduriencik has
emphasized a desire to build through the draft and player development, but
the three drafts he has overseen as Mariners GM haven’t produced a lot of
top talent.
In 2009, the club selected Ackley with the second overall pick and found
success again with Seager (third round, 82nd overall). Shortstop Nick
Franklin spent started the year as a 20-year old in the California League,
where he hit .271/.353/.407 before a late-season promotion to Double-A
Jackson. Catcher Steve Baron, taken in the supplemental first round, hit just
.196/.263/.318 this year, playing most of the season in the Midwest League.
The Mariners’ second-round selection, Georgia first baseman Rich Poythress,
played all year at Jackson, but only managed an unimpressive .264/.346/.407.
Beyond those early round selections, the organization found some useful
organizational filler and possible major league role players, but very little
impact talent.
The Mariners hit on Taijuan Walker (supplemental first round, 43rd overall)
and James Paxton (fourth round, 132nd overall) in the 2010 draft, but, as
with the previous year’s draft haul, the rest of the class looks
underwhelming. This year, the Mariners again held the second overall pick and
were projected by many to have their eye on an impact bat such as Rice third
baseman Anthony Rendon or Kansas high school outfielder Bubba Starling.
Instead, they went with Virginia lefthander Danny Hultzen, viewed by scouts
as one of the safest bets in the draft but also possessing a limited ceiling.
Hultzen projects as a mid-rotation starter in the majors, a nice piece to
have but not the kind of talent you target at the top of the draft,
especially when you own the second pick in one of the deepest draft classes
in recent memory. Because of their home ballpark, it isn’t especially
difficult for the Mariners to produce average starting pitchers (a la Doug
Fister and Jason Vargas) to fill out the back of their rotation. It is
difficult, however, to produce impact bats, and Seattle blew an opportunity
to land one of the best bats to come out of the college ranks in Rendon by
playing it safe and going with mid-rotation starting pitcher.
It is difficult for any organization to completely recover from a disaster of
the magnitude of the Bill Bavas-era Mariners in the span of three years, but
the Zduriencik-led M's have taken some steps in the right direction. The
contract extension for Zduriencik made sense because it served as a signal to
fans that ownership believes in the progress Zduriencik has made. However,
the next two seasons are critical to the long-term health of the franchise.
Zduriencik must be aggressive in his pursuit to add quality talent to all
levels of the organization if the Mariners are going to have any chance at a
postseason berth before the expiration of Felix Hernandez’s contract after
the 2014 season.
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