[閒聊] 2022 Mock Draft

看板Mariners作者JRODshow44 (Julio ##### 44 #####)時間1年前 (2022/07/15 13:07)推噓5(5推 0噓 2→)

留言7則, 5人參與討論串1/1

再三天就是今天大聯盟選秀了，拜去年還不差的成績所賜，今年選秀拿到21順位大概只能在旁邊吃瓜看戲，Drew Jones、Jackson Holiday、Termarr Johnson 誰會放掉應該都沒我們的事啦這次排名有參考一些選秀網站不同時間點的mock ranking 包括mlb pipeline, ESPN Kiley McDaniel, prospectslive Joe Doyle, CBS, JustBaseball, mymlbdraft, baseballprospectjournal, B/R, FanGraphs, BA (但是BA只有找到前reddit 上有人整理出來季初的資料) 蒐集的時間分別為 Pre-Season (PS,~二月), Season-ending (SE, 5-6月), Pre-draft (PD, 七月) 詳細資料整理於此 https://reurl.cc/LmYjKx 今年不像去年四大高中SS+vandy 雙Ace 長時間佔據talent ranking 中間排行還蠻混亂的不過看起來選秀前段(1-5)還是以高中野手為主前十中後段以大學野手為主投手的話，不論高中大學這屆都有點慘 https://imgur.com/ONk9YvH

不少投手大物都剛好在這一季開刀或是復健像是Dylan Lesko和田納西ace Blade Tidwell、BAMA的Connor Prielipp 在不同mock中第一輪可能被選到的選手共有53人，有些大概就只有一兩個mock有挑到所以這個數字越大代表這次各家預測不太一致 https://imgur.com/dyBZNzG

這邊把不同時間的排名放在一起來看藍色PD代表是離選秀最接近的時間做的分析紅色PS是大概半年前的評價所以圖上藍色比紅色靠左側代表評價一直升高 (ex. Zach Neto) 反過來藍色比紅色靠右代表評價下滑 (ex. Jackson Ferris) 把水兵#21 順位前後+/- 4位就有可能是這一屆我們的第一輪落點 Joe Doyle 之前有提到我們是很想選好的中線打者像是 Campbell 的 Neto或是兩個高中SS Cole Young 和 Jett Williams 但是很有可能會選不到，尤其是Zach Neto 從一輪尾跑到中間了很有可能跟我們擦身而過所以Joe 也有提到，好的打者可能選不到的情況，不一定要堅持只選棒子像是Cooper Hjerpe 健康的大學左手側投也是值得一選根據這個排名，先列一些資料讓大家參考一下 Zach Neto (15) Campbell 大學的主力SS 偶爾會客串 Closer XD 6' 0" / 185 lbs R/R Neto really exudes confidence and athleticism at the plate. He's an aggressive hitter who extends really well and has a knack for catching the ball out in front, tapping into a lot of his raw power. He's a good hitter with a track record of success at school and on the cape as well. It’s a rhythmic swing that relies on timing, though Neto has shown real feel for putting his body in a position to damage the baseball. Some of the quirks in his setup and swing have been compared to Javier Baez. Really good feel for tempo on the dirt with soft hands and body control. Arm might only be average, but Neto can make throws from any angle. Whether he ends up at second base, shortstop or anywhere else on the diamond, Neto has a pretty complete profile that will appeal to teams. https://www.mlb.com/video/2022-draft-zach-neto-ss https://youtu.be/4htrqLs8wRU

高抬腿打擊將來應該會被修掉吧 Batting .514/.769/1.283 with 15 HRs, 23 doubles, 50 RBIs and 19 SB Pitching 5-0, 3.25 ERA 27 K, 27.2 ip 但應該是無緣啦，看看有沒有神力巧合囉 Daniel Susac C Arizona Col 6' 4" / 218 lbs R R 大學捕手，是覺得我們選得機會應該不是那麼大啦今年大學成績 .366/.430/.582/1.012 12HR A big, tall, power-hitting catcher, Susac looks the part. In fact, he previously switch-hit, but ditched his lefty swing for the 2022 campaign. Susac has a very good arm behind the plate, and has really improved his pitch-framing in 2022. Susac has more explosiveness and lateral mobility than most catchers his size do. But this guy will make his money with the bat. A potential plus hitter with plus power, Susac projects a middle-of-the-order impact bat, a run producer and an impact defender up the middle of the field. Susac's batted-ball data surpasses that of Henry Davis from 2021. The kid can bang. 雖然說是power型的打者，但是今年大學打最多的打到30支，susac好像一半還不到XD 高中SS組 Cole Young (18.29) SS North Allegheny (PA) HS 6' 0" / 180 lbs L R hit 60 power 40 擊球感覺很不錯，很少被K，今年只有被K5次(破百PA) 模板像是 frazier @@ 和Stephen Drew 防守上應該是可以長久留在SS不用換守位偶像是Jeter XD One of the top middle infielders in the 2022 class. Pretty complete profile. Strong defensively up the middle with good footwork and an accurate arm with the innate feel for tempo and timing. Tends to peppers ball into gaps both pull-side and opposite field, but Young has a well-leveraged body with strong exit velos. He can ambush fastballs and lift when he wants. All that said, he'll likely never be more than a below average power hitter, checking in with double digit homers now and again during his pro career. Young checks a lot of boxes scouts want to see. A low chase rate, a low whiff rate, and tempered swinging strike rate. It's a very polished profile that projects to stick at shortstop and hit for average and defend well. Some Adam Frazier in this profile. https://www.mlb.com/news/cole-young-guide https://youtu.be/LU0bQm5OsY0

https://youtu.be/8gdTREZxdGE

Jett Williams (18.86) SS Rockwall-Heath (TX) HS 5' 8" / 178 lbs R R 另外一個高中SS 跟Cole young 比較不同的地方是Jett 在季初沒有什麼人關注季末就出現在各家mock 第一輪的名單中 Williams does everything on the baseball field with intent. At the plate, there's quick wrists and an attacking path to the ball. The swing is extremely short and he does a very good job taking his hands to the ball. Some believe he projects a plus hitter with average power. On the dirt, Williams is a bouncy middle infielder with rangy actions and fluidity around the bag when making his throws. Smallish frame projects into an impact, top-of-the-lineup spark plug type of performer. Williams will likely be forced off shortstop as a pro, but it’s every bit that of an impact player at second base or third base as he continues to get stronger. Williams gets high marks for his makeup and love for the game, and has a ton of suitors in the Top 20 picks. https://youtu.be/WtsxPuBuDUc

https://youtu.be/Kk34og5tqqA

https://youtu.be/XfD_b1aQ_QI

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 以上兩個高中SS如果出現，我們應該是不會放掉吧大學投手 Connor Prielipp (20.14) 2022 成績 --------------------- --------------------- 對空白 After dazzling in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Prielipp entered 2021 as a must-watch arm for the 2022 class. Unfortunately, Prielipp was forced to undergo Tommy John Surgery in May 2021. He had added 25 pounds of muscle during quarantine, which led to his fastball velocity sitting at 93-96, topping out at 97 before the injury. His slider is firm and sat 88-90 MPH with late break and there's a developing change-up in the mid-80's that has promise. Prielipp gets especially high marks for his command of the baseball as well. Scouts won't be afraid to take a chance on this elite-level lefty in July. It's the same narrative as Jaden Hill from 2021, though Prielipp comes at hitters from the left side with better command and more intriguing pitch metrics. It's not out of the question for the lanky Alabama product to be the first college lefty off the board. 比較有趣的是他跟Dylan Lesko一樣，雖然是開刀復健中，評價倒是沒有什麼變動代表大家對他們的資質沒有懷疑，但是我們應該是不會去選吧 Gabriel Hughes RHP Gonzaga Col 6' 4" / 220 lbs R R 榜上少數今年健康的大學投手 (去年手斷掉@@) 直球大概95-97 今年8-3 98IP 3.21 ERA 76 H 138 K 37BB K9不錯 Hughes, a Team USA member, suffered a broken hand in 2021 for Gonzaga, keeping him off the mound for about half of his freshman campaign, but when he was on the mound, it was awfully impressive. Big fastball can get up to 97, coupled with a sharp mid-to-high 80s slider and feel for a changeup. Hughes has two breaking balls, whether by design or accident, that melt together. Most believe it is one slider, though his release can be inconsistent. Sometimes Hughes gets more sweep than depth, sometimes vis-versa. Either way, Hughes has scouts in the Pacific Northwest drooling. First round arm talent. Requires some polish around the edges in terms of commanding the fastball and refining the entire arsenal, but the athleticism is unique. 另外打擊也不差 (Gonzaga 學長表示:) https://youtu.be/S8as1Yaq4kM

Cooper Hjerpe LHP Oregon State Col 6' 2" / 189 lbs L L 這個投手的名字大概是跟水兵連在一起最多的吧，Hjerpe 應該是要發音成 /jerpy/ 投球姿勢很有特色，左手側投有點sale + R什麼J大叔也真的很會K，今年破了學校單場17K紀錄，但是輸球(先適應??) https://youtu.be/93_ldqtP8Xs

https://youtu.be/rL63-QnIQlk

https://youtu.be/KqCZ9Xq7cqo

今年成績 103.1 IP 11-2 2.53 ERA 23 BB 161 SO K9 14.0 真的很猛，直球大概落在89-93之前最高可以到95 搭配不錯的breaking ball 和變速球跟奇特的姿勢讓打者不好掌握 You can't talk about Hjerpe without first discussing just how unique he is. It's a sub-5-foot release height that he somehow manages to stay and ride the fastball. It's legitimately a Josh Hader delivery. Hjerpe is polished with a low-90s heater, touching 95. He employs a hellacious sweeping slider and a solid-to-above average changeup. He limits walks and gets a ton of swing-and-miss on all three pitches. He's been a mainstay in the OSU rotation since arriving to campus and represents one of the more consistent forces in the class. There's loads of deception here and it's an incredibly unique profile -- some might go as far as to call it unicorn stuff. Model teams will love what he brings to the table. Definitive first round upside here. 如果沒有喜歡的打者，我覺得選Hjerpe看起來是蠻不錯的選擇 Kumar Rocker 去年Rocker 沒有順利簽約，今年又剛好是投手小年，缺投手的球隊可能還是會想衝衝看今年在獨立聯盟復出，球速條件看起來還是蠻不錯的，雖然是在我們的射程範圍，但是我們應該是不會去碰吧大學外野組，剛好接下來都是大學外野打者 Chase DeLauter OF James Madison Col 6' 4" / 235 lbs L L 今年成績是有點變態的 .437/.576/.828/1.404 BB/K 28/21 但是很多人認為主要是他學校分區太弱才會有如此變態的成績(大王: 怪我囉) 然後季中手斷掉，提早結束球季，讓評價從top 10 跌到 21左右 Lookout landing 前幾天也有發文 https://reurl.cc/Wrj38Z 從揮棒機制來看，也不是很看好，雖然BA給他的球探報告分數很高 hitting, fielding 55 power, run, arm 60 https://youtu.be/OcGgXeYIcbM

https://youtu.be/ednWvxLhZx0

https://youtu.be/Ui1DB0E_bKM

DeLauter is a physical specimen. At 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, the product of Martinsburg, West Virginia can really bang at the plate. He burst onto the scene in 2021, slashing .386/.508/.723 with six homers and seven stolen bases in just 26 games. He worked 25 walks and punched out just 14 times. DeLauter has showcased his talents in the Cape Cod League as well, surging confidence in his abilities with big league scouts. Believers see an above average hitter with easy plus, potentially plus-plus raw power. Detractors believe the swing is too unconventional (a back foot sliding mechanism) to find consistent success at the pro level. He has a disciplined eye at the plate that should translate to pro ball well. In the field, it’s a plus-plus arm in a corner with rangy speed and sound fundamentals. DeLauter clocked a 6.4-second 60 at James Madison's pro day, indicative of a plus runner. James Madison has not produced a first round pick since 2007. All signs point toward that changing in 2022. Jordan Beck Tennessee Col 6' 3" / 225 lbs R R 2022 .298/.391/.595/.986 18HR 37BB 62SO Jordan 季初關注程度不算太高，但是隨著田納西戰績飛天越來越多人看到球隊主砲的表現今年他們Ace 大多數的時間都在養傷，牛棚大將 Ben Joyce 丟出105.5 mph吸引了不少媒體目光 Jordan自己季初的時候也上過版面，不過那個時候是因為使用不合規定的球棒打全壘打被檢舉 https://twitter.com/11point7/status/1510031831231574021?s=20&t=O30sz6Fe3PV6R61830bnZA https://youtu.be/uzml1RgF_MY

https://youtu.be/OVXa5cBaAw0

https://youtu.be/upDyRf-kGLs

他的模板大概是 Hunter Renfroe Beck is a big, strong, physical corner outfielder with immense raw power in his bat. He really surged toward the end of the 2021 campaign and some scouts saw him as a sleeper this class. That didn’t last long as he came out of the gates hot as hell in February and March. Swing and miss has ticked down and barrels have really begun appearing with more frequency. Beck is an above average runner, especially for his size, and he has a good arm in right field. The whole package isn’t entirely different than a Hunter Renfroe type of thumper. You don't find this kind of athleticism easily in a corner profile. He projects an average defender so long as his body and health stay fit. Drew Gilbert Tennessee Col 5' 9" / 185 lbs L L 2022 .362/.455/.673 11HR 33BB 32SO 身材嬌小的外野手，但是對於球棒的控制能力相當好短小精幹型的選手，選球能力也很棒今年比較有名的畫面是被趕出場時誇張表情XDDDDD https://youtu.be/GIVzasC7jqU

https://youtu.be/jxDKgVSRYdg

https://youtu.be/l91TTm-oBAM

Gilbert is the ultimate spark plug at the top of the lineup. He's a good, slappy hitter who isn't afraid to turn and burn on a fastball when he's ahead, tapping into his solid average raw power. His homers have become highlight reel shots. Gilbert plays a solid centerfield and has a plus arm to keep baserunners honest. His best trait is without question his sublime approach and discipline at the plate. He draws a decent amount of walks, but really keeps his strikeouts down and never surrenders an at-bat. Gilbert is a big personality and a gritty player who will be well-liked in dugouts. Dylan Beavers OF California Col 6' 4" / 206 lbs L R 2022 .291/.427/.634/1.060 17HR 51BB 54SO Hit: 50. Power: 60. Run: 55. Field: 50. Arm: 55. Overall: 50 https://youtu.be/ImEgshRKnsE

https://youtu.be/T3xksgLHq9M

mlb combine 問他哪家漢堡店好吃?? https://youtu.be/KARp1PPIMjo

(場內HR) Beavers was one of the best players in the PAC in 2021. A tall, rangy outfielder, Beavers gets high marks for his hit tool and raw power. There's some loft in his swings, as evidenced by his 18 homers last season. Beavers can expand the zone at times as he's an aggressive hitter who looks to do damage and drive in runs. There's some speed to his game too, and natural instincts on the base paths, though he’s likely only an average “athlete” which limits his ability to make the highlight reel play. He best projects into a corner where his above average arm, length and wheels can best be optimized. Some have compared the entire package to a Christian Yelich type of profile. High praise, indeed. 以上這些選手應該是我們射程範圍內有機會的後面幾個大學外野手應該是能打的，以前我們應該會只考慮大學生，去年Ford 和 Arroyo成功的案例或許HS中線SS也會選來練練投手的話Hjerpe應該是最符合我們需求的吧 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.112.121.108 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Mariners/M.1657861671.A.AC5.html ※ 編輯: JRODshow44 (140.112.121.108 臺灣), 07/15/2022 13:11:25

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