[情報] Swing Overhaul: The Adjustments of Chris Coghlan
響應版主的外電情報活動 XD
不過我最近很忙，暫時沒辦法翻譯
所以就先只貼原文，可能過個幾週之後再翻
或是哪位ㄉㄉ方便的話也可以認領
http://tinyurl.com/6fe23o
Friday, 11 April 2008
By Alex Eisenberg
When the Florida Marlins drafted Chris Coghlan with the 36th pick in the 2006
draft, everybody knew his plate discipline was already excellent, but the
question was just how well would his bat translate into professional ball?
How much power would Coghlan, already 21 years old, be able to hit for?
Here is a look at Coghlan's swing Ole Miss University:
Thoughts about his draft swing - upright stance with a lower body action that
is not condusive to power; a knee twist (frame 7) that is meant to open his
hips, though the hips open up too soon and he doesn't do a good job shifting
his weight forward into foot plant. His swing is short, but he makes contact
a little too far out in front. In frame 14, you can see how much "extension"
he gets out in front, which is a trait that won't generate much power. Also
take note of his swing plane, which is pretty linear without much loft.
Compare to his swing from last year in the Sally League All-Star Game:
Thoughts about his 2007 swing - the angle is obviously different, but there are
still noticeable differences...he has a little more bend in the knees and a
slightly more open stance. Gone is his knee twist, and a more traditional and
aggressive foot plant and hip turn is in place...unfortunately, we can't see
how he shifts his momentum forward, but we can see how much more aggressive his
hip turn is.
Coghlan's swing plane also changed last year as he now has more loft, which
will lead to more fly balls and homeruns. This change (as well as his others),
show up in the numbers as explained below:
In college, Coghlan hit for a high average with fringy power (.163 ISO-power
his final year using aluminum bats) and this showed up in his first year as a
professional (.074 ISO). Skip one year ahead and Coghlan sees his ISO-power
jump to .209. He also saw his GB% drop to 38%, while maintaining a line drive
percentage of 19%.Even with these improvements, Coghlan's best skill is his
plate discipline and strike zone judgement. Due to his short stroke, he has a
high contact rate while maintaining an excellent batting eye:
2006(A-) - 8.1 K%, 11.7 BB%
2007 (A) - 11.8 K%, 14 BB%
2007 (A+) - 12.8 K%, 10.1 BB%
Why Isn't Coghlan Rated Higher?
Coghlan struggled mightily in A+ Jupiter. I wasn’t able to get a read on what
went wrong from a physical stand point because I have no visuals to work with,
but the numbers were a concern.
Overall, Coghlan saw a steep drop in batting average (.200) and a moderate drop
in power (.131 ISO). However, the positive to draw from this is Coghlan's
plate discipline was still strong and his contact rate was still high.
However, his BABIP was extremely low, which could be a sign of simple bad luck.
Looking deeper into Coghlan's batted ball data, Coghlan hit 42 fly balls in
Jupiter. Of those fly balls, just three became hits. Why could this be? Well
, Jupiter is an extremely unfavorable park to hitters, among the most extreme
pitcher's parks in minor league baseball. So does that explain it? Partly,
yes. But then you look at Coghlan's splits, his ROAD line was
.149/.263/.164/.427. That makes for an ISO power of .015, while his ISO power
at home was .254. Go figure.
It’s anybody's guess into exactly what went wrong if you haven't actually seen
him in Jupiter. I think it’s likely the sample size was too small to draw
conclusions on.
Final Thoughts
Coghlan reminds me of another scrappy second baseman: Brian Roberts. He has
the Roberts build and skill set (great eye, high contact) and he can afford to
lengthen his swing/load to add more power into his swing due to his already
high contact rate. He must improve his defense, but he made great strides last
year.
You can scour the minor leagues and come to the conclusion that
offensive-minded second baseman with the potential to be at least solid
defensively don't come along too often. If he can replicate at least some of
his low-A success to the higher levels of competition he will be facing this
year, then we should expect Coghlan to experience a sharp rise in the prospect
rankings by the end of the year.
--
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