[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Marlins Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Florida Marlins Preview
How much talent do the Marlins have at their disposal? They were able to
subtract five key pieces in the offseason — including their closer, No. 3
starter, setup man, first baseman and left fielder — and somehow feel at least
as well-positioned to make another playoff run. Those moves were made with a
nod toward their preferred emphasis on pitching, speed and defense, but the
payroll will again be the lowest in the majors by far. A well-oiled farm system
has kept the “zero to three” talent flowing toward South Florida and enabled
the Marlins to continue running what they like to call “a reasonable payroll”
while hanging in the playoff hunt far longer than most expect.
Rotation
Even after trading lefty Scott Olsen to the Nationals, this is a clear strength
for the Marlins. Rookie Chris Volstad justified his former first-rounder status
after a midseason call-up, and three righthanders coming off injury marred 2007
seasons made strong recoveries. Ricky Nolasco (elbow) became a 15-game winner
and the workhorse of a staff that went nearly two full seasons without a
complete game until he ended the drought. Josh Johnson roared back from Tommy
John surgery in 10 months to win seven games in the second half. Anibal Sanchez
was a bit shakier in his return from shoulder surgery, but even he averaged
nearly a strikeout per inning, showing enough reminders of the no-hit stuff he
flashed as a rookie in September 2006. The fifth spot should go to
slow-developing lefty Andrew Miller, but if his inconsistencies or problems
with patellar tendinitis return he could head back to the bullpen or the minors.
Bullpen
According to Stats, Inc., no pitcher in baseball threw harder more consistently
than Matt Lindstrom. His average fastball was a tick below 97 mph, hard enough
to entice the Marlins to give him a shot at being the next in a long line of
successful closers. It also helps that Lindstrom, who came over from the Mets
in November 2006, nailed all five save chances last September after incumbent
Kevin Gregg went down with a knee problem. Setup man Joe Nelson was
surprisingly non-tendered, but veteran reliever Scott Proctor was signed to
take his place. If Proctor struggles coming off minor elbow surgery, newly
acquired righty Leo Nunez, who came over from the Royals in the Mike Jacobs
deal, could step in. Hard-throwing Jose Ceda, who came from the Cubs in the
Gregg deal, is viewed as another future closer. From the left side, opportunity
abounds. Holdovers Renyel Pinto and Taylor Tankersley will battle imports Dan
Meyer and Zach Kroenke, the latter a Rule 5 selection from the Yankees.
Middle infield
Hanley Ramirez is a franchise player. That’s why even the ultra-careful
Marlins saw fit to hand him a six-year, $70 million extension last May. He
still must cut down his error total after averaging 24 miscues his first three
seasons, but his offensive production is staggering. Second baseman Dan Uggla
is as streaky as they come, but he’s still averaged 30 homers his first three
years. Bumped from the No. 2 slot in the order, Uggla was free to bomb away
from the middle of the lineup. His arbitration-fed salary increase could make
this his last season in South Florida unless he’s willing to sign a multiyear
deal for below market value. Long term, a move to third seems likely with young
Emilio Bonifacio pushing from below.
Corners
Jorge Cantu was subject of some low-level trade rumors this winter, but the
Marlins weren’t about to give away somebody coming off a 29-homer resurgence.
Manager Fredi Gonzalez liked to call Cantu the team’s most consistent hitter,
and his knack for clutch hitting enabled Cantu to lead a strong offensive club
with 95 RBIs. Cantu also tied Ramirez for the team lead with 22 errors, even
while splitting time between third and first. Depending on how rookie Gaby
Sanchez hits at first, Cantu could wind up bouncing back and forth across the
diamond again. If Sanchez, the reigning Southern League MVP, isn’t quite ready
to replace the traded Mike Jacobs, it would open the door for Dallas McPherson
(minors-high 42 homers last year) or the speedy Bonifacio at third.
Outfield
If Cameron Maybin performs anywhere close to the way he played in the final two
weeks of last season, he should be a runaway choice for Rookie of the Year. His
long-striding range in center field prompted comparisons to former Marlin and
perennial Gold Glove winner Devon White. It looks like the trade of Josh
Willingham will prompt a switch to left for Jeremy Hermida, whose work in right
remains shaky. Hermida was the subject of multiple trade rumors this winter,
but no other club seems to value him as highly as the Marlins still do. Cody
Ross is the likely starter in right. He ranked fourth on the team in slugging
last year, and his defense was solid enough in center to earn him the nod in
right.
Catching
The Marlins liked John Baker so much, they acquired him twice. After grabbing
him from Oakland on waivers — and then losing him back — they traded faded
prospect Jason Stokes for him before the 2007 season. Once Baker finally
reached the majors last July, he made up for lost time. Defensive deficiencies
that slowed his progress have gradually been eliminated through extra work with
catching coordinator Tim Cossins, and Baker’s patience at the plate earned him
17 late-season starts in the No. 2 hole. Look for Baker to receive the bulk of
the playing time even as the Marlins continue to sniff around for a solid
platoon option.
Bench
There might not be a more valuable role player in the game than Alfredo
Amezaga, whose glovework never drops off no matter where you put him. Veteran
Wes Helms, picked up from the Phillies for one dollar last season, was
re-signed to a two-year, $1.9 million deal and provides valuable insurance on
the corners. Bonifacio, often compared to ex-Marlin Luis Castillo, is a future
Gold Glover at second but spent the bulk of his time in the Dominican Winter
League in right field. He figures to get a look at third. It looks like
switch-hitting Mike Rabelo will get another shot as the backup catcher after an
injury marred ’08.
Management
Doubt these folks at your own peril. Time after time since coming to South
Florida in 2002, the Marlins front office has set the baseball establishment on
its ear. If only president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest weren’t
saddled with the game’s lowest payroll for the third time in four years. Then
again, with a farm system that annually produces vital pieces for the major
league roster, maybe finances don’t matter as much here as they do in other
places. A long-awaited new stadium in Miami’s Little Havana section appears on
the way for 2012, at which time perhaps Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria will open
up his wallet again.
Final analysis
This isn’t exactly the easiest division to steal. All the National League East
boasts is the defending World Series champs in the Phillies, a $140 million
outfit heading into a new ballpark in the Mets, a proud Braves franchise
determined to reclaim its former stranglehold and a Nationals team that has
started spending. Then again, there’s always the wild card, a path that led
the Marlins to both their World Series titles and a distinction they missed out
on by only five games a year ago. Look for the Marlins to exceed expectations
again under the upbeat leadership of third-year manager Fredi Gonzalez.
Beyond the Boxscore
Sock brigade The starting infield combined for a whopping 126 home runs, making
the Marlins infield the first quartet in history to produce 25 or more homers
apiece in the same season. Only one other team (the 2001 A’s) has had as many
as three 30-plus homer infielders at once. The Marlins could have had the mark
for themselves, but Jorge Cantu fell one homer short.
Incomplete The Marlins went a ridiculous 301 starts between complete games
before Ricky Nolasco ended the drought last August in San Francisco. That’s a
major league record and could remain one for some years to come. The Nationals
have the No. 2 spot at 261, a streak that ended last May. Until 2007, no team
had ever gone a full season without at least one complete game.
Nobody home The Marlins are usually good for one afternoon home game per year
where you could count the, uh, crowd with an abacus. Last year it was an early
September game against the Braves, for which the official attendance was
11,211. Right. Unofficially, media members counted around 600, a little higher
than the estimate by reliever Joe Nelson. He thought there were 418 souls on
hand. “I was way off,” he said.
Catch it On the first day of spring training last February, Marlins manager
Fredi Gonzalez set a public goal of slicing the team’s error total into double
digits. After leading the majors with 137 miscues in 2007, the Marlins did cut
their errors somewhat. But they still botched 117 plays to rank ahead of only
the Rangers and Nationals. Over the past two seasons, the Marlins have made 254
errors, a total exceeded only by the Rangers at 256. Dealing the iron glove of
first baseman Mike Jacobs should help, but the other three infield starters
figure to remain the same.
Start me up Hanley Ramirez padded his franchise record with nine more leadoff
homers in 2008. That broke his previous club mark of eight, set in 2007, which
smashed the record of seven he attained as a rookie in 2006.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — Taken sixth overall out of Patriot High School in
Riverside, Calif., Kyle Skipworth was only the second catcher taken by the
Marlins in the first round. (Charles Johnson was the other in 1992.) Over the
past 13 drafts, only two prep catchers have been taken in the top 10 picks.
Twins All-Star Joe Mauer, with whom Skipworth is often compared, was the other.
A strong two-way prospect, Skipworth signed quickly for $2.3 million. He
quickly adapted to the Gulf Coast League and the rigors of the low minors. The
Marlins won’t rush him, but with his maturity and work ethic he should arrive
in the majors by 2012.
2007 Top Pick — Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth (Calif.) High School
Slick fielder hit .296 with 18 HRs last year at low-A Greensboro.
2006 Top Pick — Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Missouri State
Nagging injuries have slowed his progress. Nasty slider would be a big weapon
in a setup role.
2005 Top Pick — Chris Volstad, RHP, Palm Beach Gardens (Fla.) High School
Sinkerballer reached majors in July. Should be in rotation for years to come.
2004 Top Pick — Taylor Tankersley, LHP, Alabama
Gritty reliever was in the majors by June 2006 but has fallen back due to
injuries and ineffectiveness.
2003 Top Pick — Jeff Allison, RHP, Veterans Memorial (Mass.) High School
Nearly died due to drug addiction but made Florida State League All-Star team
last year at Class A Jupiter.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
RF Mike Stanton (19)
Physical specimen lit up the South Atlantic League with 39 homers last year.
LHP Sean West (22)
At 6'8" he wowed scouts in the Arizona Fall League with his power slider and
mid-90s fastball.
1B Logan Morrison (21)
Tore up the Florida State League, earning league MVP honors, in breakout 2008
season.
2B Chris Coghlan (23)
Scrapper makes contact and shows excellent plate discipline. Has drawn
comparisons to Bill Mueller.
LHP Brad Hand (19)
Second-rounder in 2008 draft was Minnesota Gatorade Player of the Year and has
fastball clocked in low-to-mid 90s.
Statistician
369 >> Runs scored by Hanley Ramirez since the start of 2006, most in the
majors.
28.8 >> Marlins’ average rank in major league attendance (out of 30 teams)
over the past eight seasons.
19.7 >> Percentage gap between Marlins’ attendance in 2008 and that of the
next-lowest club (the Royals, who drew an average of 3,298 more
per game).
9 >> Blown saves by former Marlins closer Kevin Gregg, most in the majors
last season.
40–31 >> Marlins’ intradivision record last year, including 10–8 against the
World Series champion Phillies.
90 >> Home runs through his first three seasons for second baseman Dan
Uggla, most to start a career by any player at that position.
92 >> Walks for Hanley Ramirez last year after averaging 54 his first two
seasons.
23 >> Quality starts by Ricky Nolasco, six more than his next-best
teammate. Scott Olsen, since traded to the Nationals, had 17.
Difference Maker
In a span of 12 days at the end of last season, center fielder Cameron Maybin
showed Marlins fans what the fuss was about. The organization’s top prospect
hit .500 in 32 at-bats during that September audition, flashing his dazzling
speed in the field and on the bases. In the process, Maybin staked his claim to
the starting job and hinted at a real chance to justify the decision to deal
Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers for Maybin, Andrew Miller and
four others after the 2007 season.
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