[情報] Sporting News 2009 Marlins preview
Florida Marlins preview
It wasn't exactly an offseason fire sale, but Florida lost some talent,
including starting pitcher Scott Olsen (201 2/3 innings), first baseman Mike
Jacobs (32 homers), outfielder Josh Willingham (15 homers), closer Kevin Gregg
(29 saves) and reliever Joe Nelson (2.00 ERA in 59 games). Along with some new
faces comes a new philosophy: fewer strikeouts, fewer errors (113 last season)
and better pitching.
THREE QUESTIONS
1. Who hits leadoff?
The Marlins will drop shortstop Hanley Ramirez from the top spot to the No. 3
hole. Ramirez spent the offseason bulking up to strengthen his troublesome
shoulder and prepare for his new role. The lineup adjustment makes sense for
Florida -- Ramirez led the team with 33 homers in 2008 -- as long as someone
can pick up Ramirez's slack. The front-runner to lead off is center fielder
Cameron Maybin, acquired in the deal that sent Dontrelle Willis and Miguel
Cabrera to Detroit in the 2007 offseason. During his September call-up last
season, Maybin went 16-for-32 with nine runs scored and four stolen bases. That
came on the heels of a solid season at Class AAA (.375 on-base percentage).
Maybin's strikeout total (124 Ks in 108 minor league games in 2008) is a
concern.
2. Who's at the corners?
Because Mike Jacobs was traded to the Royals (for reliever Leo Nunez) this
offseason, there's a void at first base. Jorge Cantu, who appeared in 66 games
at the position in 2008, is a candidate to take over. But moving Cantu to first
base would require the team to make other plans at third base, where Cantu
played in 129 games last season. Florida hopes Gaby Sanchez will prove he is
ready to play first base on the major league level, but he has just eight
at-bats in big leagues and spent the 2008 season at Class AA (17 homers, 92
RBIs). If Gonzalez doesn't emerge, Cantu likely will play first base, with
Dallas McPherson, Emilio Bonifacio and Wes Helms competing at third. McPherson,
the oft-injured former Angels prospect, hit 42 homers at Class AAA last season.
3. How good is this rotation?
It's a talented group, but a young, injury-prone collection of arms. Ricky
Nolasco, a 15-game winner last season, is the elder statesman at age 26. Elbow
injuries limited him to five appearances in 2007. Josh Johnson, who has
ace-type stuff, went 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA after returning from Tommy John
surgery in mid-July. Anibal Sanchez, he of the 2006 no-hitter and 2007 shoulder
surgery, managed only a 5.57 ERA after returning in late July. And then there
are 23-year-old Andrew Miller and 22-year-old Chris Volstad. Miller faded badly
in 2008 and spent September in the bullpen, while Volstad flashed signs of
greatness, posting a 2.88 ERA in 15 games (14 starts). If an injury strikes,
the club has Ryan Tucker, another highly touted youngster, waiting for his
chance.
PROJECTED LINEUP
1. CF Cameron Maybin.
Power, speed potential (13 HRs, 21 SBs at Class AAA)
2. C John Baker.
Late bloomer had .392 OBP in 61 games last season.
3. SS Hanley Ramirez.
Leads majors in runs scored since 2006.
4. 3B Jorge Cantu.
Bounce-back season (29 HRs, 95 RBIs) after disappearing from 2006-07.
5. 2B Dan Uggla.
All of nothing (33 HRs, 171 Ks).
6. RF Cody Ross.
One of five Marlins who had 20-plus HRs, 100-plus Ks.
7. LF Jeremy Hermidia.
Still waiting for that breakout season.
8. 1B Gaby Sanchez.
Southern League MVP is budding run producer.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1. RHP Ricky Nolasco.
Blew away career highs in wins, ERA, innings, Ks.
2. RHP Josh Johnson.
Displayed best control (2.78 BB/9) of his career in 2008.
3. RHP Chris Volstad.
Allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of 14 starts.
4. LHP Andrew Miller.
Had 2.43 ERA in May; 7.18 ERA in other five months.
5. RHP Anibal Sanchez.
Only a 5.29 ERA in 16 starts since 2007.
PROJECTED CLOSER
RHP Matt Lindstrom.
Flame thrower went 5-for-5 in September save chances.
GRADES
Offense: C. Florida finished third in the majors with 208 homers last season,
but also finished first with 1,371 strikeouts (84 more than the next-closest
team). The goal is to put the ball in play, flash some speed and create runs.
It remains to be seen whether "small ball" will produce better results.
Pitching: C. The team is cautiously optimistic about its rotation and bullpen.
Gregg is gone, but his late-season struggles/knee injury allowed the team to
get a look at Lindstrom. Though Nunez should handle the setup duties, the
Marlins desperately need a rebound season from Taylor Tankersley.
Bench: B. Alfredo Amezaga can play infield and outfield, and has a decent bat.
The speedy Bonifacio is versatile and highly touted, but has been dealt twice
since July and hasn't hit well in the majors. Helms can play first or third and
is a nice veteran bat. If McPherson doesn't win the third base job, he'll
supply power off the bench. Catching depth remains an issue.
Manager: B. Fredi Gonzalez was voted Sporting News' N.L. Manager of the Year by
his peers after guiding Florida to 84 wins (same total as the N.L. West
champion Dodgers). Unfortunately, roster continuity is a luxury not afforded to
Florida skippers, so Gonzalez has his work cut out for him. But his performance
last season should quiet some concerns.
Sporting News prediction: The Marlins won it all in 1997 and 2003, so their
six-year cycle is due. However, this team is destined to battle the Braves for
third place -- not battle the Phillies and Mets for first.
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