Top 20 Prospects: Florida Marlins (3/1/2009)
Summary
The Florida system is loaded with positional prospects and projectable arms,
likely second to only Texas in terms of depth and high-ceiling talent. The
highlight is a 1-2 OF punch of Cameron Maybin (1) and Mike Stanton (2),
though corner infielders Matt Dominguez (4) and Logan Morrison (5) may not be
too far behind. A lot of attention will be paid this year to Kyle Skipworth
(3), selected sixth overall and last year’s Rule 4 Amateur Draft. The young
backstop has the skill set to establish himself as one of the elite catching
prospects in the game if he can find his grove at the plate. On the mound,
the Marlins have several arms, including Ryan Tucker (8) and Jose Ceda (6),
that are either ready or near-ready to join the group of young pitchers
already with the big club. A score of other arms in our Top 20 are waiting in
the wings to be part of the next wave. The future is bright for the
organization, as the look poised to make a multi-season run at another World
Series starting as early as 2009 if all breaks right (though 2010 is more
likely).
===============================================================================
1. Cameron Maybin | Stats | Depot Grade: A
6-4 / 205 | Age - 21 | OF | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2005 (R1) | Asheville HS
(NC)
Floor: Below-AVG CF | Ceiling: All-star CF | Projection: Above-AVG CF
Notes: Despite five above-average tools, Maybin currently gets mixed reviews
amongst the scouting services and organizational scouts. The complaint most
often levied is a high strikeout rate, with many pointing to his swing. True,
Maybin’s bat leaves the hit zone a bit prematurely due to a hitchy finish,
but his plus-plus bat speed and advanced strikezone command should go a long
way towards mitigating this shortcoming. If he can smooth out his finish even
a little bit, he should drastically cut down on his K-rate. As he increases
his contact rate his power will play-up even more. Defensively, Maybin has a
legit chance to be an elite centerfield in time. He already gets good reads
and takes solid routes, and his footspeed gives him easy plus-range to the
gaps. He has a strong arm that’s reasonably accurate, though he could stand
to set himself up a little better (or at least more consistently) on his
throws. While some have started to slip off of the Maybin bandwagon, we are
holding onto our seats.
2. Michael Stanton | Stats | Depot Grade: A-
6-5 / 205 | Age - 19 | OF | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R2) | Sherman HS (CA)
Floor: Below-AVG RF | Ceiling: All-star CF | Projection: Above-AVG RF
Notes: Stanton gives the Marlins a second five-tool talent to one day roam
the outfield next to Cameron Maybin. There is a lot to like about Stanton’s
breakout 2008, but what impresses me the most is the balance. He had almost
identical strikeout rates and walk rates against righties and lefties, though
his slugging and on-base percentage against righties was helped by a slightly
higher BABIP. He demonstrated big raw power from pole-to-pole, and while he’
s an average hitter right now it’s easy to see him improving as his
strikezone command and pitch-ID improves. Defensively, Stanton covers the gap
with plus-speed and has more than enough arm for right field (his most likely
future position with Maybin likely entrenched in center). It’s hard to
come-up with a 1-2 positional prospect punch that can top Maybin/Stanton. The
Marlins could see the two of them at the Major League level as early as
mid-2010.
3. Kyle Skipworth | Stats | Depot Grade: A-
6-3 / 195 | Age - 18 | C | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2008 (R1) | Patriot HS (CA)
Floor: Below-AVG C | Ceiling: All-star C | Projection: Above-AVG C
Notes: One of the top high school bats in last year’s draft class, Skipworth
underwent some growing pains at the plate in his first pro season. Despite an
uninspired line of .185/.246/.305, he was squaring-up with more consistency
in August and cut his strikeout rate over his last 75 at bats while improving
his walk rate and his homerun rate and slugging. We have little doubt he’ll
keep this momentum through the start of 2009, as his approach is advanced for
a high schooler and he boasts advanced bat control and hand/eye coordination.
Defensively, Skipworth is athletic and moves very well behind the plate. He’
s already a borderline above-average receiver with solid catch-and-throw
skills. He has a strong and accurate arm that plays-up due to a good transfer
and fine footwork for his level, helping him to gun down over 35% of
attempted base stealers in his first season. The skill set is there for
Skipworth to develop into one of the better catchers in the game with a top
five bat at the position. We think he’s a bit underrated amongst various
national scouting services and expect a nice step forward in 2009.
4. Matt Dominguez | Stats | Depot Grade: B+
6-2 / 180 | Age - 19 | 3B | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R1) | Chatsworth HS
(CA)
Floor: Below-AVG 3B | Ceiling: All-star 3B | Projection: Above-AVG 3B
Notes: While Dominguez’s bat has the chance to be above-average, its his
glove that earned him our attention. His hands are soft and he shows
plus-range to both sides (particularly to the hole). His arm is strong and
accurate and he does an excellent job of quickly setting himself up with a
solid base. At the plate, he has an advanced approach for his age, showing a
solid understanding of the strikezone. He has good bat speed and keeps a
short path to the ball. Dominguez’s best offensive asset may be his solid
hand/eye coordination, which helps him to square-up regularly -- his swing
producing good backspin and loft. Just 19-years old, Dominguez is progressing
well and has the makings of a complete package at the hot corner. Next up is
likely the challenging Florida State League in 2009.
5. Logan Morrison | Stats | Depot Grade: B+
6-2 / 215 | Age - 21 | 1B | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2005 (R22) | Maple Woods CC
(MO)
Floor: Below-AVG 1B | Ceiling: Above-AVG 1B | Projection: AVG 1B
Notes: Morrison spent 2008 wearing-out the gaps with the HiA Jupiter squad,
knocking out 38 doubles (in addition to 13 homeruns) in just under 500 at
bats. The lefty shows an advanced approach at the plate, relying on good
hands and bat control to spray linedrives to all fields. While his bat speed
helps to produce above-average power, his swing doesn’t have much natural
loft, as evidenced by his impressive doubles total this past year.
Defensively, Morrison is nothing special, but his hands are adequate and he
has improved his range in his range over the past two seasons. Not a
prototypical thumper, Morrison’s approach, contact skills and linedrive
swing profile well to the #2 spot in a Major League lineup. He’ll move to AA
Carolina in 2009.
6. Jose Ceda | Stats | Depot Grade: B+
6-4 / 275 | Age - 21 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2004 | Dominican Republic
Floor: Late-inning Relief | Ceiling: Closer | Projection: Closer
Notes: Ceda came over to the Florida system in exchange for ML reliever Kevin
Gregg. To call him big-bodied is an understatement -- standing at 6‘4”, 270
lbs. The fireballer is a true power pitcher, utilizing an upper-90s fastball
and a hard power slider as his primary offerings. Both pitches are Major
League caliber right now, and his career 11.18 SO/9 IP is proof. Three big
question marks exist with Ceda: 1) his walk rate (4.70 W/9 between two levels
in 2008), 2) his flyball tendencies (45.6% last year and 46% for his MiL
career) and his body-type/conditioning. All the tools are there for Ceda to
be an elite late-inning reliever, but he’ll need to show that each of these
three potential pitfalls will not be an issue. The Marlins will likely
challenge the 22-year old with AAA to start the season. If he fairs well, he
could log innings in Miami at some point in 2009.
7. Sean West | Stats | Depot Grade: B
6-8 / 200 | Age - 22 | LHP | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2005 (R1s) | Shreveport HS
(LA)
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Front-end Starter | Projection: #3 Starter
Notes: The tall, projectable lefty throws on a hard downward plane helping to
prevent Florida State League batters from elevating the ball (allowing just
three homeruns in over 100 IP). His fastball already sits in the low-90s,
touching the 94-95 range, and there’s room to add some more velocity as he
finishes filling out his frame. West’s slider is effective both in and out
of the zone and is particularly nasty as a backdoor offering to righties.
West still walks too many batters, but he has simplified his motion a bit and
is improving its repeatability While West is reasonably athletic, he’s so
lanky that repeatability will likely always be an issue to a certain degree.
He’ll tackle a talented Southern League as a 22-year old in 2009.
8. Ryan Tucker | Stats | Depot Grade: B
6-2 / 190 | Age - 22 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2005 (R1s) | Temple City
HS (CA)
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: Late-inning
Relief
Notes: Tucker made his Major League debut in 2008 at the age of 22. While he
got knocked around, (particularly by lefties) he also flashed pure power
stuff that screams late-inning relief. His fastball sits comfortably in the
mid-90s with solid late life. When on, his slider is a true swing-and-miss
pitch, though he struggles at times to get consistent shape. The strength of
his changeup is a solid velo-differential with his fastball, but the fade is
inconsistent and his command of the pitch is fringy. In order to better
handle lefties, Tucker will need to improve his change. If he can find more
consistency with his secondary offerings, he could reach his ceiling as a
mid-rotation arm. Depending on his spring, Florida could start Tucker back in
AAA for a few weeks of seasoning as a starter, or he could crack the 25-man
in the pen.
9. Chris Coghlan | Stats | Depot Grade: B
6-1 / 195 | Age - 23 | 2B | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2006 (R1s) | University of
Mississippi
Floor: UTL | Ceiling: AVG SS | Projection: Below-AVG SS
Notes: Coghlan’s calling card is his plus-strikezone command and advanced
on-base skills (142 BB / 137 SO and MiL career OBP of .386). While he has
limited raw power, Coghlan comes with a solid gap-to-gap approach and excels
at working the count to find pitches to square on. His ceiling is limited by
his defense, which is merely adequate. His arm and footwork around the bag
(and on pivots) are both solid, but his range is fringy to each side and his
hands could stand some softening. He profiles as a top-of-the-order bat where
he’s skill set plays best. In addition to getting on base, Coghlan shows
solid instincts on the basepaths, posting a career stolen base success rate
of 79% (63/80) over three Minor League seasons.
10. Gabby Sanchez | Stats | Depot Grade: B
6-2 / 225 | Age - 25 | 1B/3B | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2005 (R4) | University
of Miami (FL)
Floor: Below-AVG 1B | Ceiling: Above-AVG 1B | Projection: AVG 1B
Notes: Sanchez parlayed a big season at AA Carolina into a handful of at bats
with the big club in September. The former Hurricane has an incredible
command, walking more often than he strikesout. He pairs advanced discipline
with an ability to drive the ball to all fields, making him an effective
gap-to-gap slugger with some homerun pop. In 2008 he was absolutely
devastating against left-handed pitching, though he faired fine against
righties as well. In the field, Sanchez moves well side-to-side and has soft
hands. His homerun pop is a bit light for the position, but he more than
makes up for it with his on-base abilities and gap-to-gap stroke. He could
entrench himself at first base in Miami as early as this season.
11. Scott Cousins | Stats | Depot Grade: B
6-2 / 190 | Age - 23 | OF | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2006 (R3) | University of
San Francisco
Floor: Below-AVG RF | Ceiling: Above-AVG CF | Projection: AVG CF
Notes: Cousins has the makings of a solid centerfielder with some on-base
skills. He has a solid command of the strikezone but struggles identifying
the spin on breaking balls from time-to-time. A second hurdle is his swing
itself, with doesn’t spend a ton of time in the zone and is geared more
towards loft than contact. So long as he continues to show some plate
discipline and the ability to square-up on fastballs, he should hold his own.
Defensively, Cousins has a skill set that could be molded to both center and
right. He tracks well and takes solid routes, with enough footspeed to cover
the gaps. His arm is strong enough to play in right field. Unfortunately,
Maybin and Stanton will be his likely competition for either position.
12. P.J. Dean | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-3 / 175 | Age - 19 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R7) | New Caney HS
(TX)
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #4 Starter
Notes: The Washington Nationals 2007 seventh-rounder put together an
impressive ten starts with Short-season Vermont in the NY/Penn League. Dean’
s strength was his ability to prevent opposing hitters from squaring-up,
mixing three pitches effectively. His fastball sits primarily in the low-90s
with some late life. His curveball is a big breaker that can change the hitter
’s eye-level and his change shows both depth and fade. His command is
adequate for his age, but there is plenty of room for improvement (especially
with his fastball). Dean needs to improve his command in the zone and would
be better served pitching down in the zone with more frequency. There’s room
in his frame to add size and velocity, and adding some strength would help
assuage some durability concerns (Dean faded a bit in August last year). He
should get a shot at LoA Greensboro in 2009.
13. Brett Sinkbeil | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-3 / 190 | Age - 24 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R1) | Missouri State
University
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: Late-inning
Relief
Notes: Sinkbeil got knocked around in his first taste of AA ball. In large
part this was due to his lack of a consistent change-of-pace pitch. His
fastball is a boring low-90s offering that is most effective down in the
zone. A mid- to upper-80s slider is his second best pitch, coming with a
hard, late bite. The breaking ball can be effective in the zone or as a chase
pitch, but his command over the offering is still inconsistent. When his
slider isn’t on, hitters can sit fastball. Also, because the velocity
differential between the two isn’t overwhelming, the lack of a consistent
offspeed pitch is all the more troublesome. Sinkbeil’s two-pitch mix could
be very effective in relief, but his stuff is good enough that the Marlins
will likely work to keep him in a rotation. He could start 2009 back in AA to
continue to refine his secondary offerings and his command. If he were to
shift to the pen, he could quickly work his way up to the Majors.
14. Brad Hand | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-2 / 185 | Age - 18 | LHP | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2008 (R2) | Chaska HS (MN)
Floor: Non-prospect | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: Late-inning
Relief
Notes: Hand was Florida’s second round pick in the 2008 Rule 4 Amateur Draft
and represents a solid base skill set with projectability in his stuff. His
fastball generally sits in the 88-91 mph range with plus-life. A second
potential plus-pitch, his curveball comes with hard bite and can be a nasty
offering both in and out of the zone. His changeup is still raw, but he shows
a good feel for it considering his age/experience level. Hand flashes solid
command, but has some trouble repeating his mechanics, causing him to lose
his release point (particularly with his secondary offerings). He also throws
with lots of effort and a pretty severe head jerk, making relief work
potentially a better fit. Hand was effective in the Gulf Coast before tiring
a bit with the Marlins Short-season squad. He could get a shot at LoA in his
first taste of full-season ball.
15. Isaac Galloway | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-2 / 190 | Age - 19 | OF | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R8) | Los Osos HS (CA)
Floor: Non-prospect | Ceiling: Above-AVG CF | Projection: AVG CF
Notes: Galloway is still raw but packs a load of talent into his athletic
frame. At the plate, he has more of a gap-to-gap approach, though his
above-average bat speed may produce average power down the line. Like most
young prospects, Galloway needs to improve his strikezone command and his
plate discipline (he hits enough bad pitches that he’s leaving some power on
the table by not squaring-up as often as he could). His bat speed should
allow him to let the ball travel deeper into his stance, helping him with
pitch-ID as he progresses. In the field, Galloway ranges well to the gaps and
showed solid tracking through his first pro season. He profiles as a
plus-defender up the middle. With a load of talent ahead of him in the
outfield the Marlins will allow Galloway to progress at his own rate, meaning
2009 will likely include time at LoA and perhaps extended spring training to
work on his approach at the plate.
16. Chris Leroux | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-6 / 210 | Age - 24 | RHP | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2005 (R7) | Winthrop
University
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Closer | Projection: Late-inning Relief
Notes: In his second pro season pitching out of the pen, Leroux enjoyed a
productive 2008 in the pitcher-friendly HiA Florida State League. The
large-framed righty brings a low- to mid-90s fastball on a solid downward
angle. His second best offering is a power slider that sits in the mid- to
upper-80s. While his slider has some tight late break, there isn’t a great
deal of depth. While this means it isn’t as true a swing-and-miss pitch as
it could be, it still prevented hitters from squaring-up regularly.
Ultimately, Leroux’s success at the upper-levels will be dictated by his
command. He needs to spot his fastball more effectively to the corners and
because of the inconsistent depth on his slider he must be wary of catching
too much of the plate. He’ll likely head to AA Carolina this summer.
17. Bryan Petersen | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-0 / 200 | Age - 22 | OF | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2007 (R4) | University of
California - Irvine
Floor: 4th OF | Ceiling: AVG CF | Projection: Below-AVG CF
Notes: Petersen enjoyed the hitter-friendly confines of LoA Greensboro,
showing homerun pop to all fields with 7 of his 18 homeruns coming to center
and left. After 37 solid at bats in AA Carolina, the young right fielder
struggled a bit in HiA Jupiter where he finished the season. Petersen’s
approach is still a bit raw and he struggles with pitch-ID and strikezone
command. Ideally, his offensive game is a gap-to-gap approach with occasional
homerun power -- profiling best as a #6 hitter. In the field, Petersen has
the footspeed to occasionally hold down centerfield, but his best fit is in
right where his solid arm plays. With Stanton bumping to AA in 2009, Petersen
could be forced to shift over to left.
18. Aaron Thompson | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-3 / 195 | Age - 21 | LHP | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2005 (R1) | Houston HS (TX)
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Back-end Starter | Projection: Middle-relief
Notes: Thompson was hit hard in his first taste of AA, though he appears to
be have been somewhat unlucky, as well (.372 BABIP and 19.7 LD%). Thompson’s
stuff is only average, his fastball sitting comfortably in the upper-80s and
his curveball showing just average depth. He’s still inconsistent in his arm
action between his pitches and, accordingly, release point. Prior to 2009,
Thompson showed the build and makeup to be a workhorse in the back-end of a
rotation. He’s only 22, so repeating AA should not be a huge setback for the
lefty. If he can’t find enough consistency with his secondary stuff he could
profile as a lefty arm out of the pen, though he’ll need to get his walk
rate back to his 2006/07 levels.
19. John Raynor | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-2 / 185 | Age - 24 | OF | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R9) | UNC - Wilmington
Floor: 4th OF | Ceiling: AVG CF | Projection: Below-AVG LF
Notes: Raynor shows solid on-base skills but still struggles to make enough
contact for it to play as plus. He’s proficient at going with the pitch and
using the opposite field and can work a walk. Once on the bases, Raynor is
always a threat, posting an impressive 85% success rate over his three Minor
League seasons (123 SB, 21 CS). Defensively, he ranges well to the gaps but
could be limited to left field due to a sub-par arm. To his credit, he does
an adequate job setting himself up and is reasonably accurate. With a number
of talented outfielders spread through the various organizational levels,
Raynor could be looking at a future 4th outfield role with his baserunning
skills put to use off of the bench.
20. Edgar Olmos | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-5 / 180 | Age - 18 | LHP | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2008 (R3) | Birmingham HS
(CA)
Floor: Non-prospect | Ceiling: Front-end Starter | Projection: #4 Starter
Notes: Though Olmos was limited to just 1.2 innings pitched with the Gulf
Coast Rookie team, he made the most of them with strikeouts accounting for
all five recorded outs. Olmos’s fastball sits in the upper-80s, but there is
lots of room in his frame to add size and velocity. His curveball is
inconsistent at this point, but there is good depth and he flashes two-plane
action. His change is a fine third offering, with some depth and fade, but
like his curve it is still inconsistent. He tends to throw his three pitches
out of different arm slots, so he’ll need to make that more uniform as he
progresses. Olmos was a nice, projectable pickup in the third round in last
year’s amateur draft -- he could see some time in extended spring training
followed by Short-season ball in 2009.
===============================================================================
10 More Prospects to Watch
Curtis Peterson
Jesus Delgado
Graham Johnson
Pete Andrelczyk
Jake Smolinski
Tim Wood
Hector Correa
Todd Doolittle
Eulogio de la Cruz
Tom Koehler
Organizational Leaders:
Hitting – Logan Morrison
Power – Michael Stanton
Defense – Matt Dominguez
RHSP – P.J. Dean
LHSP – Sean West
Future RP – Jose Ceda
2009 Breakout Candidates:
Pitcher – Pete Andrelczyk
Hitter – Jake Smolinski
Bounce-back Candidate:
Hector Correa
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