[閒聊] Extending Uggla would be a mistake

看板Marlins作者Iukak (阿~~)時間15年前 (2010/07/24 17:52)推噓0(0推 0噓 2→)

留言2則, 2人參與討論串1/1

其實我也是邊看邊翻譯的，所以在翻譯時也是我第一次完整看完這篇文章另外，板上似乎比較多人叫Dan Uggla阿哥，所以這篇也就從阿丹改成阿哥了:P 如有重大翻譯錯誤歡迎即時告知若只是覺得不夠嚴謹...請多包涵XD http://0rz.tw/HXfYg Extending Uggla would be a mistake Jul 23rd AUTHOR: Michael Jong | IN: Marlins As we approach the trade deadline, rumors swirl as usual about the fate of many players, including quite a few Marlins. My general opinion is that the Marlins should be dealing this season, as 2010 is more or less over in terms of playoff contention and the team has a few players heading into their third year of arbitration that might get too pricey for the limited payroll. I make the argument, among other points, in this season’s Marlin Maniac Trade Deadline Primer, which you can check out and purchase here. 當交易大限越來越接近，通常乳摸就會捲進許多球員的未來動向，當然也包括馬大魚的。我主要的觀點就是，由競爭季後賽的角度來看2010球季即將結束，而有些球員將要邁向第三次薪資仲裁，且將會變得對我們有限的預算來說太貴，在交易大限前有所動作是必須的。我從其他一些觀點來討論這項議題，想看的就自行到XXXXXXX觀看。(我不想幫他打廣告X D) Amidst the news of potential interest in Marlins players such as Cody Ross and Jorge Cantu, I was shocked to see this little ditty from ESPN’s Jayson Stark (H/T MLBTR) about Dan Uggla. 在那些像是對肉絲、墨西哥佬等馬大魚球員有點興趣的新聞乳摸之中，我最感震驚的還是下面這則ESPN的Jayson Stark談論有關阿哥的消息： "…Now it appears the Fish have decided that Uggla’s bat is such an irreplaceable commodity that they’re more focused on trying to extend his contract and commit to him as their second baseman as they move into their new ballpark in 2012." 現在馬大魚似乎覺得阿哥的棒子是無可取代的，所以馬大魚更專注在和阿哥延長合約上，以確保在2012年新球場開幕時，阿哥仍會在馬大魚擔任二壘手。 This report seems somewhat substantiated by this blog post by MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (H/T HotStove.com), claiming that the Marlins are considering options beyond 2011, though nothing has been decided. 這則報導似乎經過Frisaro的證實，他還宣稱馬大魚在考慮能在新球場打球的人選，雖然還沒有任何人是確定名單就是了。 What? Given the price tag on Uggla, I had figured he would either be traded or not tendered a contract at some point before the end of this upcoming offseason. Now there seems to be talk about extending Dan Uggla past 2011, his final arbitration season? 啥鬼?我原本認為阿哥不是會被交易就是在下個球季來臨前把它賣掉。現在竟然在他的最後一次薪資仲裁前跟他談續超過2011年的約? As much of a Dan Uggla fan as I am, I can tell that this is not a good move. 即使我大概仍算是個阿哥迷，我還是要說這並不是一個好舉動。 Who is Dan Uggla? Let’s not be subjective in our treatment of Dan Uggla, the player/Marlins asset. This season, Uggla is hitting .271/.357/.458, which is good for a .360 wOBA. Were he to finish the season with that mark, it would be his second best offensive season of his career. He is a good bet to finish this season being worth 3.5 wins on the year, and for next season he is also likely to end up at around three wins. Uggla is challenged defensively, but makes up for it enough with his bat to be an above average player. 我們先不要太主觀地來看阿哥。本季，阿哥打出.271/.357/.458，以及很不錯的.360 wOBA ，如果他真的就這樣打到季末，那這將會是他生涯進攻方面次佳的球季。往好的方向預估，他本季將可以為馬大魚多帶來3.5場勝利，而下個球季大概也是在3勝左右。而阿哥真正的挑戰是在防守方面，但是和他的進攻加起來阿哥仍是一名優於一般水準的球員。 However, Dan Uggla is also likely to make at least $10M, and more likely around $11-12M, in 2011 from his final season of arbitration. During that season, Uggla will 31 years old, which means he should be on his way to his decline. His three-win projected performance in 2011 is likely to be worth about $1M more in the open market than what he would be paid that season. 無論如何，阿哥在經歷他最後一次薪資仲裁後，下一季的薪水可能至少有$10M，且甚至可能達到$11M~$12M。而在下個球季，阿哥將會是31歲，這也代表他將快要邁入衰退期。他在 2011年被預期多帶來的三場勝利使他在市場的價值會比下季付給他的薪水還要在多大約$1M 。 The Age Factor Uggla was old for his rookie season, starting at age 26. As a result, there remains a feeling that he is still “young,” because his career started so late. However, that is clearly not the case. What we witnessed the past two seasons and will likely witness for one to two more years at most are his peak seasons. Uggla will never get any better than his stretch from 2008-2012, and he likely will get worse later on. Factor in that Uggla’s offensive game is predicated upon so-called “old player skills” (walks, power, and low contact) and the fact that he is already a defensive liability, and decline may be closer for Uggla than the average player (though no one can really tell). 我們感覺阿哥好像還很年輕，主要是因為阿哥的大聯盟生涯太晚展開，實際上阿哥在開啟他的新人球季時已經是有點老的26歲。而我們過去看到的兩年和最多接下來看到的兩年就已經會是阿哥的全盛期了，而阿哥在08~12年過後將不會在更好，而且可能還會越來越糟。原因就在於阿哥的進攻是屬於所謂老球員用的技巧(多保送、高Power、低Contact)，另一個因素則是阿哥的守備已經無法為球隊帶來勝利了，而衰退將讓阿哥變得更接近只有平均水準(雖然沒有人能真的說清楚未來是怎樣就是了)。 Why are the Marlins intrigued about handing out an extension to a player like Uggla? At 30 years of age and just an above average player, he cannot be considered a cornerstone of a franchise in the same lines that Hanley Ramirez or Josh Johnson are. With his decline phase coming soon, he cannot be more than a piece for a team, yet the Marlins are considering locking him up for multiple seasons. I once wrote that Uggla is exactly the type of player a team should go through arbitration with: an older player still in his prime who will approach a decline phase as soon as he hits free agency. With these types of players, you typically end up paying below market value through arbitration for their prime seasons and end up letting them go to free agency just before their decline. Unless the Marlins plan on cutting ties in 2012 or so, any long-term deal is going to end up looking bad for the Fish. If the team is indeed looking at a multi-year deal, they had better not go past three years; anything beyond that is bound to be tying up decline years for Uggla at high prices. 為什麼馬大魚會被迷住而要給像阿哥這種球員延長合約呢?一個30歲而且僅是一個優於平均水準的球員，是無法被認可能成為像小Hanley或JJ那樣的頂尖球員和球隊基石。隨著他的衰退期越來越近，他是時候應該要離開球隊了，但馬大魚竟然還考慮綁住他複數個球季?! 我曾經寫過說阿哥就是那種球隊應該要和他持續三年薪資仲裁的球員--這種還在高峰期的老人打法球員一但到了FA之後就會開始進入衰退期。而這種類型的球員通常在他們的高峰期，經由仲裁只要付出比市價還低的價碼，而最後在他們準備要衰退時放他們進FA。除非馬大魚是計劃在2012年以前先用阿哥替代，否則任何的長期計劃最後對馬大魚來說都會是失敗的。如果馬大魚真的要和阿哥簽複數年合約，那他們最好是不要超過三年，超過了的話，結果必然是用高薪綁住一個持續衰退的球員。個人感想:翻完之後才發現這篇根本是徹底的嘴砲 (#‵皿′)f〒﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌叭叭叭我覺得他其實根本就很討厭阿哥吧<(＃￣▽￣)╮☆(__ __||) TTO有什麼不好◢▆▅▄▃崩╰(〒皿〒)╯潰▃▄▅▇◣ 雖然我很喜歡Dan Uggla 但是我也不期待馬大魚會留他超過3年就是了(￣▽￣＃ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.39.61.181 ※ 編輯: Iukak 來自: 114.39.61.181 (07/24 22:02)