[外電] The numbers behind Miami's new direction
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamiheat/post/_/id/15068
The numbers behind Miami's new direction
熱火新方向背後的數字
By Tom Haberstroh
ESPN.com
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Erick Dampier, Mickell Gladness, Joel Anthony,
Jamaal Magloire, Juwan Howard and Eddy Curry.
During the past two seasons, Heat president Pat Riley has scoured the
free-agency pile and brought in a long line of so-so centers to fill an
apparent hole in his team's lineup.
以上是兩個球季以來，熱火總管Riley替他球隊內線大洞，補進長長的的中鋒名單，結果盡
皆表現平平。
But none of those hires has worked nearly as well at center as Chris Bosh.
他們甚至於比Chris Bosh扛中鋒打出的效率還低。
And that's why the Heat are fine with not introducing a big-name center
Wednesday.
而這也是熱火到目前沒簽到中鋒大物還如此淡定的理由。
During the Heat's championship run, the Heat finally found a solution to
their center problem: don't play a center at all. With Bosh starting at the
5, the Heat plowed through the Thunder en route to a title, as the
unconventional lineups created mismatches on both ends of the floor.
今年熱火奪冠的歷程中，熱火最終找到了解決中鋒荒的好方法：不派中鋒上陣。Bosh先
發的5場比賽中，熱火勇闖雷霆奪冠的關鍵，就是用非正規的隊形，在場上製造出無數
mismatch來突圍取勝。
This is an important backstory to the Heat's free-agent foray this summer. On
Wednesday, the Heat officially introduced Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis at
AmericanAirlines Arena, and you'll notice that neither of them plays center.
Or point guard. They're primarily shooters with little ability to do much
else offensively.
這作為熱火今夏進軍自由市場的一個背景故事，星期三，熱火在美航中心正式簽下 Ray
Allen 和 Rashard Lewis，你會發現這兩位既非中鋒也非控衛，皆為三分射手，而除了外
線進攻外也沒其他優勢。
The Heat confirmed something in the Finals that they had already assumed but
couldn't fully embrace: They don't need a conventional point guard or center
to win a title. They already have those pieces in their superstar trio.
因為今年的總冠軍，讓熱火終於確認了一件他們假設已久但一直未證實的事：
在三王強力掩護之下，他們可以無需依靠傳統控衛或中鋒的贏得冠軍。
So they loaded up elsewhere.
正因如此，球隊才放心先補強其他位置。
Don't be surprised if you see Allen and Lewis play together on the court next
season, along with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Bosh. Playing those two
shooters next to the Big Three might not seem like a bankable plan, because
that doesn't look like a lineup basketball fans are used to seeing. Who
defends the opposing point guard? Who protects the paint?
如果妳下一季看到 Allen、 Lewis 與 LeBron James、Dwyane Wade、Bosh並肩上場時，
別太訝異。兩名射手搭擋三王，聽起來不是一般球迷常見而熟悉的隊形，也許有人會強烈
質疑其成效：誰去貼身跟防對方控衛？又由誰來鎮守禁區？
But here's why those concerns don't hold much water.
但其實這些都過慮了，真相並沒那麼嚴重。
In the past two seasons, when the Big Three played with two non-point guard
shooters, the Heat outscored the opponent 239 to 150 in about 86 minutes on
the court.
過去兩季以來，三王搭配兩名非控衛射手的情況，總共86分鐘的時間裡，勝分取得
239-150大幅領先的優勢。
That translates to a 50-point win margin every 48 minutes.
意味每一場比賽48分鐘，可以贏對手將近50分。
Here are the numbers, courtesy of NBA.com's awesome stats tool, in case you
were wondering.
如果你覺得奇怪，別懷疑，數據可都在NBA官網的統計資料庫中。
Who should play next to the Big Three?
到底三王應該和什麼類型的球員合作最有利? 請參考以下表格：
陣容類型 上場時間 己方得分 對手得分 ORtg DRtg Diff
─────────────────────────────────
PG + C 2,908 6,079 5,526 107.8 98.0 +9.8
PG + Wing 494 1,214 983 118.7 96.1 +22.6
C + Wing 482 1,036 920 112.4 99.8 +12.6
2 Wings 86 239 150 127.4 79.9 +47.4
Total 3,967 8,568 7,579 110.2 97.5 +12.7
─────────────────────────────────
Source: NBA.com data.
註：
ORtg：該球員在場上時，每一百次進中中，球隊可得的分數
DRtg：該球員在場上時，每一百次進攻中，球隊所失的分數
PG ：控衛
C ：中鋒
Wing：側翼，也翻成搖擺人
When we convert those numbers to a per-100 possessions basis, we find that
the Heat have a 127.4 offensive rating with that alignment next to the Big
Three. All other lineups next to the Big Three? 109.8. The average team?
About 103.0.
三王搭配 2 Wings(雙側翼)這樣隊形，當我們換算每100次持球進攻得到的平均分數，發
現熱火有127.4分得分，球隊其他隊形的平均得分率：109.8分，聯盟平均約103.0分。
So I know what you're thinking: What about defense? Funny thing, they've
performed even better on that side of the ball. How many points do the Heat
allow per 100 possessions when they play two wings instead of a center and a
point guard?
可能會有人會擔心，防守要怎麼辦？有趣的是，反而他們打的防守也更好。我們來看在三
王+雙側翼，在缺少中鋒+控衛的情況，熱火每百次持球進攻失多少分？
That's 79.9 points. The league average, again, is about 103 points.
只有79.9分失分，而聯盟平均失分，一樣是103分
That sound you hear? Yeah, that's the collective gasp of 29 other NBA teams.
你想的沒錯，聯盟其他29支球隊平均分數是103分。
This is powerful stuff, and there's no doubt the statistically inclined Heat
organization is aware of the fireworks that those lineups ignite. (For
those wondering, the wings are Shane Battier, Mike Miller, James Jones and
Eddie House.)
數據會說話，令人很難反駁這強有力的論點，熱火本身也開始意識到這種隊形的威力。
(這兩年側翼球員是Shane Battier、Mike Miller、James Jones和Eddie House)
It's here that we must mention the sample size isn't gigantic -- it all
amounts to about two full games of basketball. And a lot of those lineups may
have been used because the opponent took its dominant big man off the floor
(but how many of those are left in the league?).
我們必須附註說明一點，這樣本數量並不大，累加僅僅只有約兩場比賽的時間，而這隊形
派出通常在對手最有統治力的大個子下場的時候。(不過聯盟又有幾個這樣的大個子球員?)
Still, an efficiency differential of plus-47.4 is bordering on mercy rule
levels, even if it isn't an enormous sample size. If nothing else, it should
tell the Heat to try running those lineups out there until the efficiency
comes back down to earth. If it ever does.
況且，即使避談樣本不大的問題，勝分差值+47.4也可能是蹂躪低程度的對手所洗出來的。
沒太多的目的，它或只能提醒熱火可多嘗試運作這些隊形上場，直到數值有足夠樣本降回
到常態的統計。如果它回得來的話。
The main takeaway here is that the Heat shouldn't handcuff themselves to
convention. Playing a traditional point guard and center might make the
lineup card look less funky, but it probably limits their potential.
這數據能點到的附加論述，則是熱火不應把自身被傳統觀念給綁住。擺出具傳統控球後衛
和中鋒的隊形固然讓人心安，但也有可能壓抑球隊的潛能。
Why?
怎麼說？
The Heat's big men just haven't been very good. Anthony may be the best
option they've had the past two seasons, simply because he can snuff out a
pick-and-roll and recover better than almost any big man in the league. He
hustles, too, but that doesn't fully compensate for his lack of offensive
skill.
首先，熱火沒有一個夠出色的內線球員，JA也許是他們過去兩季最好的選擇，全因為他的
靈活度能破壞對手的檔切戰術。另外，他擁有比聯盟其他大個球員有更好的體能恢復力。
他拚搶意識也積極破表，但這些都還不足以彌補他進攻技巧的貧乏。
Secondly, James and Wade can take turns bringing the ball up the floor. Once
that's taken care of, the Heat's offense starts as usual. Sure, Mario
Chalmers can guard opposing point guards better than Allen, but one of the
longstanding truths of basketball is that guarding a guy such as Russell
Westbrook, Derrick Rose or Chris Paul is a five-man operation, not an
individual battle. The 79.9 defensive rating hints at that theory.
再說，James和 Wade可輪流控球，只要他們其中一個還在場上，熱火的團隊攻勢仍會一如
往常。當然，Chalmers防守對方控衛或許比 Allen更好，但對籃球長久以來的真理而言，
防守如 Russell Westbrook、Derrick Rose或 Chris Paul如此高水準的球員，一直是場上
五人團隊的共同任務，而非個人的戰鬥。僅僅79.9分的平均失分暗示了這個道理。
The Heat peppered their news conferences Wednesday with assurances that
they're planning to play a different brand of basketball than the traditional
one. They've taken a gamble by signing two players who will be a combined 70
years old at the start of next season, but it's hard to imagine the Heat
getting young talent at a discount like they did with Allen and Lewis. Also,
the Heat could probably use another backup center (Ronny Turiaf?) to keep
James and Bosh from burning out in their new roles. But they're clearly
headed in the direction of a versatile attack without a traditional center.
熱火周三密集發佈這些簽約新聞，等於是開出了預計打與傳統相左的籃球招牌的保證。將
於下賽季登場的這兩名簽約球員，加起來也近70歲了，雖是不小的賭注，不過也很難想像
熱火搶得到擁有 Allen和 Lewis的才能又便宜好用的年輕潛力股。此外，熱火還是可能買
個備胎中鋒（Ronny Turiaf?）頂著，以維持 James和 Bosh在他們的新定位燃燒的能量。
話雖如此，他們還是正引領著無傳統中鋒的多方位攻擊的隊形潮流。
If these numbers are any indication, that direction is probably the right one.
如果說這些數據有任何指引，或許是對目前球隊而言，提出了正確的方向。
--
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