[外絮] 湖人能否在季後賽爭奪戰趕上爵士和火箭？已回收
來源 http://ppt.cc/6Rk6 By Tom Ziller on Feb 26, 10:00a
Will the Lakers catch the Jazz or Rockets in the NBA playoff race?
湖人能否在季後賽爭奪戰中趕上爵士和火箭？
In a liberal sense, seven teams in the West are battling for four playoff
spots. More conservatively, three teams are battling for two spots. The Hook
looks at the teams' remaining schedules to suss out best guesses for where the
teams end up.
從較寬廣的角度來看，目前有七隻隊伍正在爭奪四個季後賽席次；
更保守點講，共有三隊在爭奪兩枚席次。我們檢視了這些隊伍剩下的賽程，
為這些隊伍的最終戰績找出最有可能的猜測。
The end of NBA trade season marks the beginning of Scoreboard Watch season.
Those sad fans with teams at the bottom of the standings are watching for
fellow lowly competitors in hopes of ping pong ball count boosts. Fans of the
teams are the very top are looking at potential match-ups in the first round
and beyond.
NBA交易季的結束揭示了觀看戰績表的賽季的開始。
那些墊底球隊的傷心迷迷們希望能從其他同病相憐的隊伍上獲得勝場的提升。
頂尖球隊的迷迷們則在關注著未來第一輪或次輪的可能對戰組合。
And the blessed fans in the middle? They're watching the playoff race unfold.
Wins and losses have been replaced in their lexicon by "games back in the loss
column" and "magic numbers." There are no nights off; even if your team isn't
playing, one of its co-contenders will be. For these fans, Scoreboard Watch
season is both wonderful and ulcer-inducing.
而那些中段班隊伍的幸運迷迷們呢？他們正等著季後賽揭開序幕，
輸或贏早被他們腦中的辭典轉換成勝差和魔術數字了。
這種行為是24小時不打烊的，即使你的隊伍沒有比賽，其競爭對手也會有。
對這些迷迷來說，觀看戰績表的賽季是既完美又讓人胃痛的。
The real action is in the West this year. If the East becomes a race, it'll
only be because things get either depressing -- Bucks! don't leave us! -- or
very Bynumian, in which case we'll address it when it needs to be addressed.
In
the West, there are seven teams competing for four spots. In this column, I
make the argument that two of them are toast, meaning one legit contender will
be left out.
真正的戰場在西區。如果東區也淪為戰場的話，
那也只是因為事情使人沮喪(公鹿！不要走)或者走向Bynum式的結果(這裡亂翻= =)。
當東區發生這種情況時，我們會為其寫一篇的。
在西區，總共七個隊伍競爭四個席次，
在這個專欄裡，我的論點顯示有兩隊幾乎已經快沒有希望了，
這意味著尚有一隊將被屏除在季後在之門外。
Instead of using the more reliable, more complex regression models (like the
Hollinger Power Rankings) to rank the playoff contenders in the West, I wanted
to go dead simple. I look at the teams' remaining schedule, a rough assumption
of how teams typically do against good and bad teams on the road and at home,
and the current standings. I'm using a sledgehammer and a chisel where a
scalpel might be preferred. But I think there's beauty and usefulness in
simplicity. That's the aim here.
我打算使用簡單的方式來進行西區季後賽後半班的排名，
而不是像火靈哥那樣採用更可靠更複雜的迴歸分析。
我檢視各隊所剩下的賽程，
將其大概分成在主場客場對上強隊弱隊，並且觀察各隊目前的排名。
我使用著槌子和鑿子，雖然使用手術刀比較好(應該使指其分析方法原始)，
但我認為簡單的方式也很好用，這是目標所在。
One of the rough assumptions I make is that the typical bottom-half Western
playoff team will win roughly 55 percent of its games. Some will be higher,
occasionally you'll be lower, but that's the rough estimate. From there I
broke
games into four categories: home games against good teams, home games against
bad teams, roadies against good teams, roadies against bad teams. My
definitions for good and bad are straightforward: East playoff teams
(including
the sub-.500 Bucks) are good, East lottery teams are bad. All West teams below
.500 except the Lakers are bad, the rest (including the Lakers) are good. I
boosted L.A. on account of its point differential, but I didn't feel it
necessary to drop teams like the Warriors with subpar point differentials and
excellent win-loss records.
其中一個粗糙的假設是一般那些在爭奪西區季後賽席次的隊伍其勝率大約為五成五，
當然有些會比較高有些比較低，但這只是很粗略的評估。
在此我將比賽區分成四種類型：
在客場迎戰強隊、在主場迎戰強隊、在主場迎戰弱隊、在客場迎戰弱隊。
我對於強隊和弱隊的定義是很直觀的：
東區季後賽隊伍(包含五成勝率以下的公鹿)，東區準備樂透的隊伍是弱隊。
而在西區除了湖人隊，五成勝率以下的隊伍都是弱隊，其他的是強隊。
特別把湖人列為強隊的原因在於其得失分差，
但我覺得沒有必要因為得失分差是負的而把像是勇士對這類的隊伍歸為弱隊。
At this point, I make another informed assumption: that teams of this quality
(bottom half of West playoff bracket) can, will or should win all of their
home
games against bad teams, lose all of their road games against good teams and
win 60 percent of home games against good teams and roadies against bad teams.
A team that did this would end the season 45-37, which is right in our zone.
Of
course, in practice teams will win some games they shouldn't and lose others
they shouldn't. But as a rule of thumb for this level of team, this holds some
general truth.
這個時候，我再做另一個假設：
這七支隊伍在主場迎戰弱隊時能夠完全取得勝利、但在客場迎戰強隊時則是全敗；
在主場迎戰強隊時及在客場迎戰弱隊時勝率為六成。
最終戰績能達到45勝37敗的隊伍即能進入季後賽。
當然，實際的情況有些隊伍會贏得一些不被看好的比賽或 輸掉一些不該輸的比賽。
但大致上對於這個等級隊伍來說，這分析掌握著普遍的真實性。
And now, our seven teams ...
現在，來看看我們的七支隊伍……
THE NUGGETS 金塊隊
Denver is currently 36-22, and many would count them as a lock to make the
postseason. They are a full eight games ahead of the No. 9 seed after Monday's
action. But they aren't too far ahead of the Warriors, and the Warriors aren't
too far ahead of the Jazz, and... you get the picture. We had to cut it off
somewhere.
金塊目前戰績36勝22敗，許多人會將其視為季後賽之門的鎖。
在經過周一的比賽後，其領先西區第九有8場勝差。
然而其目前領先勇士隊並不多，而勇士亦沒領先爵士多少，而爵士……
你知道的，我們必須找個地方中斷它。
Here's the Nuggets' remaining schedule according to our categories.
我們將金塊隊的剩餘賽程分類如下：
主 客
┌──┬──┐
│ │ │
強 │ 8 │ 5 │
├──┼──┤
│ │ │
弱 │ 6 │ 5 │
└──┴──┘
Our rough estimates have the Nuggets going 14-10 the rest of the way. (That's
6-0 against bad teams at home, 0-5 against good teams on the road, 5-3 against
good teams at home and 3-2 against bad teams on the road.) That'd be good for
a
50-32 record and a sure playoff spot.
我們初估金塊接下來能拿下14勝10敗
(在主場對爛隊取得6勝0敗，在客場對強隊0勝5敗，
在主場對強隊取得5勝3敗，在客場對爛隊取得3勝2敗)。
能夠取得50勝32敗的戰績和季後賽席次挺不錯的。
THE WARRIORS 勇士隊
Golden State is 33-23 and has ended that horrid losing streak. They have the
good fortune of a home-heavy schedule over the next seven weeks, but it's a wee
bit top-heavy.
勇士戰績為33勝23敗，並且已中止了可怕的連敗。
他們運氣不錯，接下來的七個禮拜的比賽主場佔了很大的比例，但還是有一點點繁重。
主 客
┌──┬──┐
│ │ │
強 │ 8 │ 6 │
├──┼──┤
│ │ │
弱 │ 8 │ 4 │
└──┴──┘
Our system projects a 15-11 record for the Warriors on their way out, which
would land them at 48-34. That should be enough for a playoff spot, though
likely the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. (That No. 7 seed comes with a likely date with
the Thunder. AVOID.)
我們的系統預估勇士能拿下15勝11敗，使其戰績來到48勝34敗。
足以使其在季後賽取得一席之地，
大約是第六或第七種子的席次(第七種子將可能遇上雷霆隊，盡量避免。)
THE JAZZ 爵士隊
Many would start this conversation with 31-26 Utah, who at No. 7 in the West
sits just 3.5 games ahead of No. 9. And I must say, the schedule is not a
friend of the Jazz right now. Of the 12 road games remaining, eight come
against teams currently in a playoff seed or the Lakers.
關於西區季後賽競逐的對話，人們往往從這裡開始。
31勝26敗的爵士隊，目前排名第七，領先第九有3.5個勝差。
然而我必須說，接些來的賽程對於爵士並不友善，
剩下12場的客場中，有8場是對上季後賽隊伍或是湖人隊。
主 客
┌──┬──┐
│ │ │
強 │ 6 │ 8 │
├──┼──┤
│ │ │
弱 │ 7 │ 4 │
└──┴──┘
Our system has Utah going 13-12. That would give the Jazz a 44-38 record for
the season. Hmmm ...
我們的系統顯示爵士能取得13勝12敗，本季戰績為44勝38敗。嗯……
THE ROCKETS 火箭隊
Houston is currently 31-27, a half-game behind the Jazz and three games clear
of the No. 9 seed in the loss column. And the remaining schedule?
火箭目前是31勝27敗，距離爵士僅半場勝差，並且敗場數比第九名少三場。
其接下來的賽程如何？
主 客
┌──┬──┐
│ │ │
強 │ 7 │ 4 │
├──┼──┤
│ │ │
弱 │ 7 │ 6 │
└──┴──┘
Holy Distinct Lack of Tough Road Games! Our system has the Rockets closing 15-9
for an overall record of 46-36. And if Houston plays well, that might be an
understatement: those four roadies against good teams we're counting as losses
are against the Grizzlies, Warriors, Nuggets and Lakers. Not a single road game
remaining against a top-3 West team.
非常明顯地缺乏艱困的客場戰！我們的系統評估火箭能取得將近15勝9敗的戰績，
本季戰績為46勝36敗。倘若火箭隊能打得不錯，這個結果或許還是低估：
在我們預估中。其9敗中包含了在客場對上像是灰熊、勇士、金塊和湖人這樣的強隊。
火箭已沒有須至西區三強家作客的比賽了。
AH YES, THE LAKERS 湖人隊
With a Monday loss to the Nuggets, L.A. failed to reach .500. The Lakers have
been below .500 for all of 2013. :-(
周一的比賽輸給了金塊，使得湖人錯失重返勝率五成的機會。
今年湖人隊的勝率一直在五成以下徘徊:-(。
At 28-30, how does the rest of the season's schedule look?
目前戰績是28勝30敗的湖人隊，接下來的賽程是如何呢？
主 客
┌──┬──┐
│ │ │
強 │ 6 │ 6 │
├──┼──┤
│ │ │
弱 │ 6 │ 6 │
└──┴──┘
Remarkably balanced! Our system projects L.A. to go 13-11 the rest of the way
for a ... 41-41 record. Grand success! The Lakers shall reach .500 in 2013
after all!
顯然非常平均！我們的系統估計湖人接下來能取得13勝11敗，
最終戰績……41勝41敗。這真是一項巨大的勝利！至少湖人本季能達到五成勝率！
And now, the two teams that by virtue of the standings remain technically in
the hunt but in reality are so, so toasted.
而現在，還有兩支隊伍憑著名次，技術上來說也在競逐的行列，但實際上可能快完蛋了。
THE BLAZERS拓荒者隊
Portland is 26-30, one game behind the Lakers for No. 9 and all even in the
loss column. But good gravy, look at this schedule!
阿拓目前是26勝30敗，距離西區第九的湖人隊有一場勝差並且敗場數一樣，
但天啊！看看他們的賽程表。
主 客
┌──┬──┐
│ │ │
強 │ 10 │ 10 │
├──┼──┤
│ │ │
弱 │ 4 │ 2 │
└──┴──┘
A full 20 of 26 remaining games come against teams in the playoff bracket or
the Lakers. Heavens to Batum that's ugly. My rough figuring has Portland going
11-15 the rest of the way for a 37-45 record. Sorry, Blazers.
剩下的26場比賽中阿拓將有20場是對上季後賽隊伍或湖人隊，天佑Batum！
粗略預估阿拓接下來僅能拿下11勝15敗，以37勝45敗的戰績結束本季。
抱歉了，拓荒者。
THE MAVERICKS 小牛隊
Dallas is currently 25-30, 1.5 games behind No. 9 and all even in the loss
column. And ... my Raef, what is going on with these fringe playoff contenders
and their schedules?!
小牛隊目前戰績25勝30敗，和西區第九的敗場數一樣，
距離其有1.5個勝差。但我的Raef啊！
這些處在季後賽邊緣的隊伍及他們的賽程到底是怎麼回事啊？
主 客
┌──┬──┐
│ │ │
強 │ 11 │ 8 │
├──┼──┤
│ │ │
弱 │ 3 │ 5 │
└──┴──┘
It's as if the Basketball Gods want us to fully expunge the Blazers and
Mavericks from our concern. Dallas has 14 home games remaining... and 11 come
against playoff teams or the Lakers. We project the Mavericks to go 13-14 on
the way out for a 38-44 record.
彷彿籃球之神打算將小牛和阿拓從我們的考量名單中抹去一樣，
小牛雖還有14場主場，但其中11場是對上季後賽隊伍或湖人隊。
我們預估小牛將拿下13勝14敗，本季38勝44敗。
Now let's put it all together with some projected standings based only on a
rough estimation of how these teams will do with their remaining schedules.
現在讓我們依據先前對這些隊伍剩餘賽程表現的粗略評估，將這些隊伍的戰績作重新排名
。
5. Nuggets (50-32) 金塊 50勝32敗
6. Warriors (48-34) 勇士 48勝34敗
7. Rockets (46-36) 火箭 46勝36敗
8. Jazz (44-38) 爵士 44勝38敗
_________________________________
9. Lakers (41-41) 湖人 41勝41敗
10. Mavericks (38-44) 小牛 38勝44敗
11. Blazers (37-45) 阿拓 37勝45敗
So basically, the schedule tells us that the Rockets and Jazz will switch
place
and the Lakers will get to .500. This was sure a fun exercise! Of course,
things could go very differently. And we'll be watching intently, preferably
with fewer ulcers than fans of the above teams.
所以基本上，賽程告訴我們火箭和爵士將會互調位子，而湖人的勝率將能爬上五成。
這真是個有趣的練習，當然，結果可能會大不相同。
我們會持續關注，希望所有隊伍的酸酸能比迷迷少(最後一句亂翻)。
第一次嘗試翻譯，請版友鞭小力點(感恩
--
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02/27 20:16, , 71F
02/27 20:16, 71F
→
02/27 20:17, , 72F
02/27 20:17, 72F
推
02/27 20:20, , 73F
02/27 20:20, 73F
→
02/27 20:42, , 74F
02/27 20:42, 74F
推
02/27 21:43, , 75F
02/27 21:43, 75F
推
02/27 22:48, , 76F
02/27 22:48, 76F
→
02/27 22:49, , 77F
02/27 22:49, 77F
噓
02/27 23:25, , 78F
02/27 23:25, 78F
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