[外絮] 關鍵的空檔 (kobe不如小馬丁原文已回收
The unguarded
關鍵的空檔
The venerable Justin Kubatko, founder of Basketball-Reference and
a lion of the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown (although, it must be
said, a cowardly one -- he won the thing twice and has refused to
compete since) wrote (Insider) about teams that under and
overachieved last year.
令人尊敬的Justin Kubatko是BBR的創始者，也是TrueHoop（譯按：ESPN的
專欄網站）數據怪胎論戰中的雄獅。（雖然我必須說，是隻膽小的雄獅。他
贏了兩次後就不敢再比了。）他寫篇文章關於去年令人失望和令人驚艷的球
隊。
He noted something interesting, specifically that the Thunder were
just 3-6 in close games last season, while a year earlier they had
been much better. Kubatko writes:
他具體的點出一件有趣的事。雷霆隊去年在分數膠著的比賽中只有三勝六敗
的表現，然而再一年前他們表現卻更好。Kubatko文中寫到：
Some might want to blame that performance on the loss of James
Harden, one of the league's most efficient fourth-quarter scorers
in 2011-12. But Harden's replacement, Kevin Martin, led the NBA
with an effective field goal percentage of .793 on shots taken in
the fourth quarter or overtime with a scoring margin of three or
fewer points.
「有些人可能會把結果怪罪於James Harden的離隊，因為他是2011-12年聯盟
中第四節得分效率最高的球員之一。但補上Harden空缺的Kevin Martin在第四
節或延長賽比賽分差三分內時出手有效命中率（eFG%）高達.793，在這個數據
他領銜全聯盟。」
This piece of news is, for me personally, surprising, delightful and
problematic all at once.
這個消息對我個人而言是既充滿驚喜、愉悅又狐疑的。
First: Raise your hand if you were once a devoted listener to Ryen
Russillo's NBA Today podcast.
第一：若你是Ryan Russillo的NBA today網路廣播的忠實聽眾請取手。
The story goes like this: In early 2011 I wrote a bunch of stuff
about how Kobe Bryant -- despite his reputation -- was no king of
crunch time because he misses a hell of a lot. People's thinking
about Hero Ball has evolved some in the interim. But back then Kobe
won every crunch time poll, whether from players, GMs or fans. That
he might not be the best counted as earth-shattering. My friend
Russillo was among those to say, essentially, what the hell.
故事是這樣的：在2011年初時我寫了一堆關於Kobe Bryant不是關鍵時刻之王
，儘管他有這個美譽，因為他關鍵時刻打了很多鐵。在這之間，人們對於關
鍵英雄的討論漸漸產生。但在過往，Kobe贏得每個關於關鍵時刻能力的民調
，無論球員、GM、或是球迷都投他。若他不被選為最好的則會被視為驚天動
地之事。我朋友Russillo就是那些對於不選他會說出「殺小？！」的人。
Russillo asked me, on his podcast, something like: If the stats
showed that some other player, like, say, the famously efficient
Kevin Martin, had much better crunch time stats than Bryant, would
I give the ball to Martin over Bryant?
在他的節目中，Russillo問我一些像是：「若數據顯示其他球員，像是有名
的高效率球員Kevin Martin有著比Bryant更好的關鍵時刻數據，我會把球給
Martin還是Bryant？」
I said that if the stats showed somebody was way better than Bryant
at making late shots, I would pick that guy to take that late shot.
我回答「若數據顯示其他人的最後一擊數據比起Bryant來的好的話，我會選擇
那個人來投最後一擊」。
And in a small, Internetty kind of way, all hell broke loose. In the
retelling, the fun little story among Russillo's listeners has become
that I'm the nut who said I'd take Kevin Martin over Kobe Bryant, HA
HA HA. It still comes up now and again. Even though I never said
that. Such is life.
故事接下來，用個網路用語來說，天要塌下來了。在重講這個Russillo聽眾間
的有趣小故事時，內容就變成我是個選擇Kevin Martin而非Kobe Bryant的瘋子
，哈哈哈。甚至到現在還會被提到，即使我從未這樣說過。人生啊～
Now I know better. Now I know that's the wrong question, for two
reasons. First, because crunch time shooting percentages, based on
tiny sample sizes, bounce around like crazy from year to year and
nobody is consistently near the top. Maybe nobody is truly "clutch."
過了兩季後，我懂更多了，我懂那是個錯誤的問題。首先，關鍵時刻的命中率
是基於小樣本，所以每年的變動幅度很大，而且沒有人一直立於頂端。或者可
以說沒有人是真正的「關鍵殺手」。
But more importantly, picking any guy to take the last shot, no
matter what the defense does, is dumb. Teams with go-to scorers who
don't pass much are a cinch to defend and struggle to score, because
all five defenders know who'll take the shot, which means that guy
never has an open shot.
但更重要的是，不管選擇「誰」，無視防守情形的來執行最後一擊都是愚蠢的
。當球隊的最後一擊執行者不會傳球的話，防守既簡單也能讓他不容易得分，
因為五位防守者都知道誰會投最後一球，也就是說這個人不可能有機會有空檔
出手。
Covered shots are very hard for any player to make, and that's
exactly why the super-talented Bryant misses nearly 75 percent of
the time late in close games.
被守住的投籃無論對誰都是難以投進的，而這也是為什麼超級進攻好手Bryant
會投丟75%的關鍵一擊。
And it's also why, now, this story has taken a twist and, for a
season at least, Martin is among the best anywhere at hitting in
crunch time: Last season he played with two spectacular late-game
ballhogs in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
同時也是為什麼這個故事來個急轉彎，至少有理由解釋為什麼Martin是關鍵
時刻的最佳得分手之一：上一季他和兩個拉鋸戰的超級球霸，Kevin Durant和
Russell Westbrook一起打球。
Which meant, by and large, Martin did not get the ball in crunch
time. Simple as that.
總的來說，代表Martin關鍵時刻根本碰不到球。就這麼簡單。
He'd go dozens of minutes without launching a shot, as commentators
said things like "this has got to be Durant's time." And so it was.
On NBA.com/stats I just noodled around with the stats and found in
the last five minutes of a game within five, the Thunder's two stars
combined to take 176 shots ... to Martin's 12. Their shooting was
crummy -- both below 40 percent -- but Martin barely missed.
當球評說「這是Durant接管的時間了」時，他在第四節的時間裡無法投出任
何一球。而事實也是如此。在NBA.com的數據中，我翻來翻去後發現最後五分
鐘、五分差內的比賽，雷霆隊的兩大球星總共投176球……比對Martin的12球
。他們的出手都是濫投－兩個人命中率都低於40%－但Martin幾乎不會打鐵。
My suspicion, in seeing Martin's killer numbers was: That's because
Martin didn't get the ball unless he was wide open.
我看到Martin的神級數據後猜想：因為Martin沒有空檔是拿不到球的。
And sure enough, I looked up the video, and that's precisely what
it shows. Here's Martin nailing a 3 in overtime against Dallas.
There he is breaking the hearts of Nuggets fans on the road, putting
the visitors up one with 1:25 left. There he is in Memphis, doubling
a three-point lead with a 3. In a season's worth of crunch time 3s,
the defense was consistently distorted to Durant and never got close
to Martin.
在看過影片後，我發現就是這麼一回事。Martin在對達拉斯的延長賽時砍近
一個三分球。他又在客場比賽中傷透金塊球迷的心，讓雷霆隊在比賽剩一分
二十五秒時領先一分。在曼菲斯時也是一樣，用一顆三分球將三分領先擴大
到六分。在面對價值一個球季的關鍵三分時，防守方一直影響Durant而毫不
理會Martin。
The defense was betting Martin simply would not get the ball -- and
it was usually correct.
防守方賭Martin不會拿到球，而這樣賭通常是正確的。
On the odd nights he did get a crunch time shot, he usually made
it, because he has always been an excellent shooter, and in other
seasons was his team's go-to offensive weapon. These are warm-up
shots for him. Martin played 98 minutes with the game within five
in the closing five minutes, and over all that time he took six
3-pointers without missing a single one. He was wide open every
single time. He attacked with his dribble six times, and scored
twice. The rest of the time he didn't shoot.
在些少見晚上，他真的有機會投關鍵一擊，而他通常能投進，因為他一直以
來都是個優質射手，而且在其他幾季也是他所屬球隊的關鍵進攻武器。對他
來說就像投籃練習。在所有五分鐘內小於五分差的比賽，總共98分鐘裡他六
顆三分球全部命中。每次出手他都是空檔。其餘六次的進攻是運球後出手，
而這六次中命中兩次。其他的時間他都在打醬油。
Now, I don't know how much this does, if anything, to help Martin's
reputation in the minds of fans and Russillo listeners. Martin is
making shots lots of players can make, which doesn't make him more
talented than Kobe ... there may be no way to rank them or anyone
else. Any good scorer can score well in crunch time if the
opportunities are there, and crunch time is rare enough that it
might never be possible to prove anyone is, long-term, superior.
現在我不知道這些內容有沒有幫助到Martin在球迷及Russillo的聽眾的心中
的名聲，如果能有幫助的話啦。Martin投進多數球員能投進的球，這不代表
他比Kobe更有天份……這兩人本來就不可能放一起比。任何好的得分手能在
關鍵時刻給予機會時順利得分，而關鍵時刻是少見到可能無法證明誰是永遠
的關鍵殺手。
What's inferior, though, is running the "archangel" offense that
the Bulls used for a time with Michael Jordan. If Durant and
Westbrook had passed just a little more, the team would have scored
more points. Advanced analysis has long shown the Thunder offense is
better when the two stars do a little less. The same goes for Bryant,
and all the NBA's "closers." Move it to the open man. The team gets
better looks, and scores more, 'cause that wide open guy has it easy.
Get him the ball, not because of who he is, but because of how alone
he is.
較差的進攻是像公牛隊以前設計給Michael Jordan的戰術－「球給23號」。
如果Durant和Westbrook能多傳點球的話，球隊便能多得點分。進階數據分析
一直以來都顯示雷霆隊進攻在兩大球星少做點事時更佳。這對Bryant和其他
的NBA「終結者」都是一樣的。傳給空檔的人，球隊能有更佳的進攻選擇、能
得更多分，因為空檔出手更為簡單。把球給他，不是因為他是特定的誰，而是
他有多大空檔。
原文網址－
http://tinyurl.com/lulcpcv
心得：
這個作者其實沒有在戰kobe或貶低kobe
甚至解釋一些數據的謬誤
整篇文章重點其實在雷霆雙煞和關鍵時刻的戰術
提到Kobe的部分我想是因為他這兩年內因之前的言論被戰了不少
多少想提一下吧
整篇文章關於關鍵時刻的解讀自己覺得滿中肯的
而且也沒有覺得他把Kobe當噱頭
道歉什麼的我也不知道為什麼
他之前跟球迷們有什麼過節可能就要知情人來解釋了
(有任何翻譯錯誤請不吝嗇指出喔，感謝)
--
新手NBA外電翻譯+數據分析部落格
http://mola79321.pixnet.net/blog
歡迎來討論!!!
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
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