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[外絮] 爭冠球隊的罩門 季後賽球隊的弱點分析

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https://tinyurl.com/pu8jkvkj 2026.03.30 ESPN NBA Insiders (Zach Kram) The NBA playoffs are two weeks away, and the postseason picture is taking shape. In the East, the Detroit Pistons have already clinched a playoff berth in hopes of securing the conference's No. 1 seed. In the West, Victor Wembanyama secured his first playoff appearance with the San Antonio Spurs, while the Oklahoma City Thunder -- who are just ahead of the Spurs -- hope to repeat as NBA champions. 距離季後賽開打還有兩週，季後賽的版圖正逐漸成形。在東區，活塞已經鎖定季後賽席位 ，希望能保住分區第一種子的位置。在西區，斑馬帶領馬刺確定了他生涯首次的季後賽之 旅，而排在馬刺前面的雷霆則希望能完成二連霸。 Will the Thunder be what stands in San Antonio's way for a Finals appearance? Ultimately, it will depend on each team getting the right -- or wrong -- series matchup. And despite playoff contenders catapulting themselves over conference competition, each team possess a kryptonite that could lead to their playoff undoing. Our insiders evaluated the biggest weakness of the top 10 NBA Finals contenders -- bench production, 3-point shooting, among others -- and broke down their possible impact in a deep postseason run. ESPN analyst Zach Kram then selected the opponent best positioned to exploit it. 雷霆會成為阻擋馬刺邁向總冠軍賽的絆腳石嗎？說到底，這將取決於每支球隊在系列賽遇 到的是好打還是難纏的對戰組合。儘管這些季後賽競爭球隊在分區脫穎而出，但每支球隊 都有一個可能導致他們在季後賽翻船的罩門。 我們的內部專家評估了前10大爭冠球隊的最大弱點——包含板凳火力、三分球投射等等 ——並分析這些弱點在季後賽深水區可能造成的影響。接著由 ESPN 分析師 Zach Kram 挑出最能針對並利用這些弱點的對手。 ============================================================================== ============ 東區 Eastern Conference ============== ============================================================================== No. 1: Detroit Pistons (clinched playoff berth) Chance to make the East semifinals: 77.6% Chance to make the Finals: 30.6% 第1名：活塞（已確定進季後賽） 晉級東區準決賽機率：77.6% 晉級總冠軍賽機率：30.6% Kryptonite: 3-point shooting You can't ignore it: 3-point shooting is the great equalizer in today's NBA, and the Pistons don't have enough of it. Even with Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. spreading the floor last season, they were in the bottom third in the league from beyond the arc. Now, they're 29th in attempts and 28th in makes. They rely so much on the defense creating offense and Cade Cunningham's brilliance in the half court, it feels like an easy bugaboo to point out that the three other contenders (Knicks, Celtics and Hornets) in the East are all top 10 in makes. Can Kevin Huerter acclimate himself enough to make a difference? Will Duncan Robinson find his movements to create open looks? The Pistons have survived this season knowing their weaknesses, but May and June feel like a different season. -- Vincent Goodwill 罩門：三分球投射 你無法忽視這一點：在當今的 NBA，三分球是拉近實力差距的最佳武器，而活塞在這方面 的火力卻遠遠不夠。即使上個賽季有 Malik Beasley 和 Tim Hardaway Jr. 來幫忙拉開 空間，他們的三分線外表現依然排在聯盟後段班。現在，他們的三分球出手數排在第 29 名，命中數排在第 28 名。他們太過依賴以防守帶動進攻，以及 CC 在半場陣地戰的出色 發揮；相比之下，東區其他三支競爭球隊（尼克、綠賽和黃蜂）的三分球命中數全都排在 聯盟前 10 名，這顯然是個很容易被挑出的毛病。 Kevin Huerter 能否盡快融入並帶來改變？Duncan Robinson 能否透過無球跑位創造出空 檔？活塞雖然帶著已知的弱點撐過了這個賽季，但五月和六月的季後賽感覺會是截然不同 的戰場。 —— Vincent Goodwill Opponent to avoid: Boston Celtics and New York Knicks The Celtics and Knicks both have top-five defenses that are built around taking away the paint and letting opponents fire away from deep. They lead all playoff teams in opponents' 3-point attempt rate, with 45% of the shots they give up coming from long range. But if the Pistons' personnel means they're unable to take advantage of the shots that Boston and New York naturally give up, then a series against either Eastern Conference foe could prove a tough slog for Detroit's offense. -- Zach Kram 應避免碰上的對手：綠賽、尼克 綠賽和尼克都擁有聯盟前五的防守，他們的防守體系主要建立在封鎖禁區並放任對手在外 線開火。他們在「對手三分球出手比例」上領先所有季後賽球隊，被對手出手的球中有 45% 來自三分線外。但如果活塞的陣容讓他們無法把握住綠賽和尼克刻意放掉的外線空檔 ，那麼在對陣這兩支東區勁旅的任何一個系列賽中，活塞的進攻都會陷入一場艱苦的泥巴 戰。 —— Zach Kram ============================================================================== No. 2: Boston Celtics (clinched playoff berth) Chance to make the East semifinals: 72% Chance to make the Finals: 17.4% 第2名：綠賽（已確定進季後賽） 晉級東區準決賽機率：72% 晉級總冠軍賽機率：17.4% Kryptonite: Fast-break scoring Given the long-standing truth that the game always slows down in the playoffs, fast-break scoring is the best issue to have. The Celtics rank last in fast-break points per game (11.4), and Boston will be hoping that Jayson Tatum's return will eventually mitigate any offensive issues. So far, Tatum's play has come in fits and starts, but overall it has been encouraging to see him return less than a year after suffering an Achilles tear and immediately find ways to contribute to winning. And Boston will also be counting on its huge edge in playoff experience in the East to be a benefit. -- Tim Bontemps 罩門：快攻得分 考量到季後賽比賽節奏總是會變慢這個不爭的事實，快攻得分偏低反而是最不用擔心的一 種問題。綠賽的場均快攻得分（11.4 分）排名聯盟墊底，而綠賽將寄望JT的回歸最終能 緩解任何進攻端的問題。到目前為止，JT的表現時好時壞，但整體而言，看到他在阿基里 斯腱斷裂後不到一年就復出，並立刻找到方法為球隊贏球做出貢獻，還是相當令人振奮的 。而且綠賽也將仰賴他們在東區巨大的季後賽經驗優勢來取得有利位置。 —— Tim Bontemps Opponent to avoid: Detroit Pistons If the Celtics don't score in transition, then they'll need to maximize their opportunities in the half court. But the Pistons could make that difficult, as they boast by far the best half-court defense in the East, according to Cleaning the Glass; only the Thunder have a better half-court defense. Whether the Pistons' wings are up to the task of defending Tatum and Jaylen Brown for a full series remains to be seen -- all four matchups between the teams came before Tatum's return -- but at the very least, they'd force Boston to grind out every possession. -- Kram 應避免碰上的對手：活塞 如果綠賽無法在轉換快攻中得分，那麼他們就需要將半場陣地戰的機會最大化。但活塞可 能會讓這件事變得困難，因為根據 Cleaning the Glass 的數據，他們擁有東區斷層領先 的最佳半場防守；全聯盟只有雷霆的半場防守比他們更好。活塞的側翼球員是否有能力在 一個完整的系列賽中擔起防守JT和JB的重任還有待觀察——兩隊這賽季的四次交手都在JT 回歸之前——但至少，他們會迫使綠賽在每一波球權都陷入苦戰。 —— Zach Kram ============================================================================== No. 3: New York Knicks Chance to make the East semifinals: 75.7% Chance to make the Finals: 20.7% 第3名：尼克 晉級東區準決賽機率：75.7% 晉級總冠軍賽機率：20.7% Kryptonite: Bench scoring It's amazing when you look at the Knicks starters' minutes compared to last season: Only Jalen Brunson is close to his numbers from last season at 35 minutes a game. Still, because coach Mike Brown's team is so reliant on the starters to produce, New York's bench is averaging 31.2 PPG, which ranks 28th in the league. Mikal Bridges is in a prolonged production slump. Karl-Anthony Towns is constantly under fire. Off the bench, Landry Shamet has had moments (39% from 3), Jordan Clarkson has been spotty and Mitchell Robinson isn't a consistent scoring contributor. Miles McBride is recovering from hernia surgery and could be available in the postseason, but who can Brown truly depend on for alternate options on offense? -- Goodwill 罩門：板凳得分 當你將尼克先發球員的上場時間與上個賽季拿來做比較時，結果非常驚人：只有大頭森以 場均 35 分鐘接近他去年的數據。儘管如此，因為總教練MB的球隊非常依賴先發球員提供 火力輸出，尼克的板凳場均得分只有 31.2 分，排名聯盟第 28 名。 Mikal Bridges 正處於漫長的低潮期。軟糖持續面臨外界抨擊。在板凳席上，Landry Shamet 偶有佳作（三分球命中率 39%），Jordan Clarkson 表現起伏不定，而 Mitchell Robinson 則不是一個穩定的得分點。Miles McBride 正在從疝氣手術中康復， 可能會在季後賽中復出，但在進攻端，MB到底能真正指望誰來提供替代火力？ —— Vincent Goodwill Opponent to avoid: Miami Heat There are two reasons the Heat are best suited to take advantage of New York's lack of bench scoring. First, Miami leads all teams with a winning record in bench scoring, with 42.9 points per game, meaning the Heat -- led by Sixth Man of the Year contender Jaime Jaquez Jr. -- could overwhelm New York's bench units. And second, the Heat play at the fastest pace in the NBA, which could induce greater fatigue in the Knicks' starters and require Brown to turn more to his weaker bench than usual. -- Kram 應避免碰上的對手：熱火 有兩個原因說明為什麼熱火最適合利用尼克板凳得分不足的弱點。首先，在勝率過半的球 隊中，熱火的板凳場均得分高居第一（42.9 分），這意味著由年度最佳第六人熱門人選 JJJ領軍的熱火可以輾壓尼克的替補陣容。其次，熱火打著全聯盟最快的比賽節奏，這可 能會加劇尼克先發球員的疲勞，並迫使MB必須比平時更依賴他較弱的板凳陣容。 —— Zach Kram ============================================================================== No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers Chance to make the East semifinals: 77.8% Chance to make the Finals: 20.8% 第4名：騎士 晉級東區準決賽機率：77.8% 晉級總冠軍賽機率：20.8% Kryptonite: 3-point defense Cleveland has had its opponents shoot 40.9% on corner 3s, the third-worst among all NBA teams. When the Cavs lost to the Pacers in last season's conference semifinals, Indiana shot 42.6% from 3 in the series, so letting an opponent get too comfortable shooting 3s has been a part of Cleveland's undoing in the past. With a defense built around two rim protectors, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavs are all-in on protecting the paint and know they're going to give up 3s as a result. But they also recognized the rate at which they were getting lit up from beyond the arc wasn't going to cut it during the playoffs. The Cavs will be counting on their deadline acquisitions to make a difference. James Harden got all the headlines, but Cleveland also added Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroder off the bench, replacing a few of their weaker perimeter defenders from earlier in the season. So far, it has made the Cavs 3-point defense more respectable: opponents are shooting 36% since Feb. 5, which ranks 16th. -- Jamal Collier 罩門：三分球防守 騎士讓對手投出了高達 40.9% 的底角三分球命中率，在全聯盟排名倒數第三。當騎士上 賽季在分區準決賽輸給溜馬時，溜馬在該系列賽投出了 42.6% 的三分球命中率，因此讓 對手在外線投得太舒服一直是騎士過去被淘汰的原因之一。由於防守體系建立在 Evan Mobley 和 Jarrett Allen 兩位護框長人身上，騎士傾注全力固守禁區，他們也深知這必 然會漏掉對手的三分球。但他們也意識到，像這樣被對手在外線狂轟猛炸的頻率在季後賽 是絕對行不通的。 騎士將寄望他們在交易大限前的補強能帶來改變。鬍子搶走了所有的版面焦點，但騎士 的替補陣容還加入了 Keon Ellis 和 Dennis Schroder，取代了季初幾個防守較弱的外圍 球員。到目前為止，這讓騎士的三分球防守變得比較體面了：自 2 月 5 日以來，對手的 三分命中率降至 36%，排在聯盟第 16 名。 —— Jamal Collier Opponent to avoid: Charlotte Hornets Cleveland has mostly handled Charlotte just fine this season, going 3-1, with the only loss coming in overtime in a game Mobley sat out. But Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel leads the league in 3-point makes, and as a team, the Hornets lead the league in 3-pointers (16.2 per game) and rank third in 3-point accuracy (38%); since Jan. 1, they're first in both stats. Their long-range readiness could stretch Cleveland's defense to the breaking point. -- Kram 應避免碰上的對手：黃蜂 騎士本賽季大部分時間在對付黃蜂時都游刃有餘，取得了 3 勝 1 敗的成績，唯一的一場 敗仗是在 Mobley 缺陣的情況下於延長賽中輸球。不過，黃蜂新秀 KK 的三分球命中數領 先全聯盟，就球隊整體而言，黃蜂也是全聯盟三分球命中數最多（場均 16.2 顆）的隊伍 ，三分球命中率（38%）則排名第三；自 1 月 1 日以來，他們在這兩項數據上都高居第 一。他們蓄勢待發的長程砲火可能會將騎士的防線拉扯到崩潰邊緣。 —— Zach Kram ============================================================================== ============ 西區 Western Conference ============== ============================================================================== No. 1: Oklahoma City Thunder (clinched playoff berth) Chance to make the West semifinals: 91.8% Chance to make the Finals: 55.3% 第1名：雷霆（已確定進季後賽） 晉級西區準決賽機率：91.8% 晉級總冠軍賽機率：55.3% Kryptonite: Corner 3s Even the league's best defense has to give up something in the modern NBA, when offenses are scoring more efficiently than ever. The Thunder prioritize making their opponents play in crowds, which is a major factor in Oklahoma City forcing so many turnovers, ranking second in that category (16.9 per game) after leading the league last season. That sacrifice the Thunder make for swarming the ball is living with foes getting up a lot of 3s. Opponents hit 14.3 3-pointers per game against OKC; only the Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks give up more. A healthy percentage of those are the most efficient jump shots in the game: The Thunder give up a league-worst 4.6 made corner 3s per game. -- Tim MacMahon 罩門：底角三分 在進攻效率空前高漲的現代 NBA 中，即便是全聯盟最頂尖的防守，也必須做出一些取捨 。雷霆優先將防守重心放在迫使對手陷入重兵看管的人群中打球，這是雷霆能製造大量失 誤的關鍵因素，他們在這項數據（場均逼迫對手發生 16.9 次失誤）位居第二，僅次於他 們自己上賽季領跑聯盟的表現。為了對持球者進行壓迫包夾，雷霆所做的犧牲就是必須忍 受對手大量投射三分球。對手在對陣雷霆時場均能投進 14.3 顆三分球；全聯盟只有爵士 和公鹿讓對手投進更多。其中很大一部分是比賽中效率最高的跳投：雷霆場均讓對手投 進 4.6 顆底角三分球，為全聯盟最差。 —— Tim MacMahon Opponent to avoid: San Antonio Spurs As if the Spurs didn't already look like the biggest threat to Oklahoma City's chance to repeat -- winning four of five regular-season games against the Thunder -- San Antonio is also perfectly suited to expose this Thunder weakness. The Spurs attempt a league-leading 12.4 corner 3s per game, making 39% of them. Among individual players, Harrison Barnes ranks second in total corner 3 attempts, Julian Champagnie ranks fourth, and Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson each rank in the top 25. If anything, the Spurs got unlucky against Oklahoma City in their five matchups: They took 13.2 corner 3s per game but made only 31.8%. They should expect to sink more of those tries in a potential conference finals matchup. -- Kram 應避免碰上的對手：馬刺 即便馬刺對雷霆的二連霸之路看起來還不夠威脅性——而他們在例行賽對戰雷霆的五場比 賽中贏了四場——馬刺在球風上也完美契合，能徹底暴露雷霆的這項弱點。馬刺場均出手 領先全聯盟的 12.4 顆底角三分球，命中率高達 39%。在個人球員方面，小雞的底角三分 球總出手數排名第二，香檳排名第四，而 DV 和 KJ 也都排進了前 25 名。 真要說起來，馬刺在對陣雷霆的五次交手中運氣還有點差：他們場均出手 13.2 次底角三 分球，但命中率只有 31.8%。如果在潛在的分區冠軍賽碰頭，他們應該有把握能投進更多 這種球。 —— Zach Kram ============================================================================== No. 2: San Antonio Spurs (clinched playoff berth) Chance to make the West semifinals: 82.9% Chance to make the Finals: 26.4% 第2名：馬刺（已確定進季後賽） 晉級西區準決賽機率：82.9% 晉級總冠軍賽機率：26.4% Kryptonite: Not putting away teams San Antonio routinely jumps out of the gate firing, having led by 15 points or more in 59% of its outings, which translates to a record of 38-4 in that scenario. But it's worth noting the Spurs have lost 13 games in which they've led by 10 points or more, tying the Nuggets for the fourth-most losses in the NBA, which points to an issue finishing games. That's to be expected from a young team short on playoff experience embarking on its first postseason since 2019. Spurs coach Mitch Johnson has talked repeatedly about the importance of his team keeping its "poise and composure" while avoiding the "hesitancy" that sometimes keeps San Antonio from knocking out opponents when they're on the ropes. -- Michael C. Wright 罩門：無法提早終結對手（關門能力） 馬刺經常一開局就火力全開，在 59% 的比賽中曾取得 15 分或以上的領先優勢，在這種 情況下的戰績為 38 勝 4 敗。但值得注意的是，馬刺在領先 10 分或以上的情況下遭到 逆轉輸掉了 13 場比賽，與金塊並列 NBA 第四多，這點出了他們在終結比賽時的問題。 對於一支缺乏季後賽經驗、且即將迎來 2019 年以來首次季後賽之旅的年輕球隊來說，這 也是意料之中的事。馬刺總教練米奇曾一再強調球隊保持「鎮定與沉著」的重要性，同時 要避免那種有時會讓馬刺無法對命懸一線的對手給出致命一擊的「猶豫不決」。 —— Michael C. Wright Opponent to avoid: Los Angeles Lakers If the Spurs struggle to put away teams, then it stands to reason that they'd want to avoid facing the NBA's best clutch team. The Lakers' 22-7 clutch record might not be predictive -- clutch performance is often fluky and subject to small-sample randomness -- but with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and LeBron James, the Lakers have the isolation scorers and offensive firepower to repeatedly pull out close games. If the Spurs end up facing the Lakers in the second round, they'll need to keep building their lead throughout each game, rather than taking their foot off the gas and letting Doncic and the others have a chance in the final minutes. -- Kram 應避免碰上的對手：湖人 如果馬刺難以徹底擊垮對手，那麼按理說他們會想避開全聯盟最擅長打關鍵時刻的球隊。 湖人 22 勝 7 敗的關鍵時刻戰績或許不具預測性——關鍵時刻的表現往往帶有運氣成分 ，且受限於小樣本的隨機性——但擁有 77、AR 和 LBJ 的湖人，具備了強大的單打得分 手和進攻火力，能夠屢屢在比分拉鋸的比賽中脫穎而出。如果馬刺最終在第二輪遭遇湖人 ，他們必須在整場比賽中持續擴大領先優勢，而不是鬆開油門，讓 77 和其他人在最後幾 分鐘有逆轉的機會。 —— Zach Kram ============================================================================== No. 3: Los Angeles Lakers Chance to make the West semifinals: 58.2% Chance to make the Finals: 4.1% 第3名：湖人 晉級西區準決賽機率：58.2% 晉級總冠軍賽機率：4.1% Kryptonite: Rim protection Opposing scouting reports know that nobody on the Lakers' roster averages even one blocked shot per game this season, so there's little fear when teams attack the rim against L.A. The Lakers see opponents shoot 61.3% in the paint -- 29th in the league, according to GeniusIQ. The two who shoulder the most responsibility for N.E.B. (no easy buckets) are centers Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes. Austin Reaves called Ayton, the No. 1 pick in 2018, the Lakers' X factor and Hayes -- a 7-footer who was in the dunk contest during All-Star weekend -- certainly has the physical tools to get it done. But the problem is not just with the Lakers' backline. It is incumbent on the Lakers' perimeter players -- be it Marcus Smart and Reaves or LeBron James and Luka Doncic -- to provide an initial barrier at the point of attack. When an offensive player blows by the defense, allowing him to accelerate as he advances toward the paint, it can neutralize even the best shot blockers. -- Dave McMenamin 罩門：護框能力 對手的球探報告都很清楚，湖人陣容中本賽季沒有任何一位球員場均阻攻數達到一次，因 此各隊在對戰湖人時攻擊禁區可說是有恃無恐。根據 GeniusIQ 的數據，湖人讓對手在禁 區投出高達 61.3% 的命中率——排在聯盟第 29 名。 肩負起最多 N.E.B.（不讓對手輕鬆得分，no easy buckets）責任的兩人是中鋒艾頓和海 爺。AR 稱 2018 年選秀狀元艾頓為湖人的 X 因子，而海爺 ——這位曾在全明星週末參 加灌籃大賽的 7 呎長人——絕對具備完成這項任務的身體條件。但問題不僅出在湖人的 最後防線上。湖人的外圍球員——無論是聰明哥和 AR，還是 LBJ 和 77 ——都責無旁貸 地必須在進攻發起點提供第一道防守屏障。當進攻球員一步過掉防守者，讓他在朝著禁區 推進時加速，這足以讓最頂尖的阻攻好手也無能為力。 —— Dave McMenamin Opponent to avoid: Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs The league-leading offense in terms of field goal percentage in the paint is actually the Lakers, and they can't play themselves. But they can play the Timberwolves, who rank second by making 60.5% of their shots in the paint, and they can also play the Spurs, who rank third with a 60.4% mark. The Timberwolves dominated the Lakers in the playoffs last year, and they could try to repeat that feat this spring with all the pressure they put on the basket. Meanwhile, the Spurs and Victor Wembanyama could be a huge problem down low if the Lakers face San Antonio in the second round. -- Kram 應避免碰上的對手：灰狼、馬刺 全聯盟禁區命中率最高的第一名進攻大軍其實正是湖人自己，而他們總不能自己打自己。 但他們可能會碰上以 60.5% 禁區命中率排名第二的灰狼，也可能會對上以 60.4% 命中率 排名第三的馬刺。灰狼在去年的季後賽中徹底宰制了湖人，今年春天他們大可嘗試用不斷 對籃框施壓的方式來重演這項壯舉。同時，如果湖人在第二輪遭遇馬刺，斑馬在低位將會 帶來巨大的麻煩。 —— Zach Kram ============================================================================== No. 4: Houston Rockets Chance to make the West semifinals: 34.5% Chance to make the Finals: 1.3% 第4名：火箭 晉級西區準決賽機率：34.5% 晉級總冠軍賽機率：1.3% Kryptonite: Turnovers Houston seemed resigned earlier in the season to accept that turnovers might just be a consequence of not having a true point guard because of a season-ending injury to Fred VanVleet. It has been on a pair of high-usage players, Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, to facilitate the offense. Sengun and Durant rank eighth and 10th in the NBA in turnovers per game (3.3 and 3.2, respectively). As a team, the Rockets average 15.7 turnovers, tied for fourth worst in the NBA. Opponents have feasted on those giveaways, scoring 19.1 points per game off turnovers, which ranks sixth most in the league. Houston has dropped six games in a row this season in overtime for a 1-7 record in OT, with turnovers almost always serving as a deciding factor. -- Wright 罩門：失誤 季初的火箭已無奈接受一個事實：因為 FVV 整季報銷，導致球隊缺乏正統控衛，失誤會 是不可避免的代價。組織進攻的重任落在了兩名高球權使用率的球員身上：KD 和神棍。 他們的場均失誤（分別為 3.2 次和 3.3 次）高居聯盟第八和第十。就團隊而言，火箭場 均發生 15.7 次失誤，並列聯盟第四糟。對手毫不客氣笑納這些大禮，這些失誤的場均失 分高達 19.1 分，排名聯盟第六多。火箭本賽季在延長賽中苦吞六連敗，延長賽戰績為 1 勝 7 敗，而失誤幾乎是決定勝負的關鍵因素。 —— Michael C. Wright Opponent to avoid: Oklahoma City Thunder With a horde of perimeter ball hawks, the Thunder rank second in the NBA in opponent turnover percentage (behind only Detroit), and they lead the league by scoring 22.3 points per game off turnovers. That's a dangerous proposition against a team that doesn't really play a true point guard. The Rockets succeed because their offensive rebounding prowess allows them to win the possession battle, but too many turnovers would swing that advantage to Oklahoma City. -- Kram 應避免碰上的對手：雷霆 擁有一票外圍防守大鎖的雷霆在迫使對手失誤率上排名聯盟第二（僅次於活塞），他們利 用失誤得到場均 22.3 分更是領先全聯盟。對於一支沒有真正控衛的球隊來說，遇上他們 將是個極度危險的挑戰。火箭的成功建立在強大的進攻籃板能力讓他們能贏得球權優勢， 但過多的失誤會將這個優勢轉手奉送給雷霆。 —— Zach Kram ============================================================================== No. 5: Denver Nuggets Chance to make the West semifinals: 69.3% Chance to make the Finals: 8.9% 第5名：金塊 晉級西區準決賽機率：69.3% 晉級總冠軍賽機率：8.9% Kryptonite: Forced turnovers Denver has a lot of defensive problems, but a lack of playmaking on that end stands out. The Nuggets rank last in turnovers forced per game (11.8) and 29th in blocked shots (3.9). Peyton Watson's presence was missed in these areas during his extended absence because of a hamstring strain, finally returning on March 22. He leads the Nuggets in blocked shots (1.1 per game), helping mask three-time MVP Nikola Jokic's most glaring weakness, and ranks second in steals (1.0). Aaron Gordon, who has sat out significant stretches because of his own hamstring issues, doesn't get a lot of blocks or steals, but is the duct tape that holds the Denver defense together. -- MacMahon 罩門：製造對手失誤 金塊有許多防守端的問題，但在防守端缺乏破壞力這點尤為突出。金塊在場均迫使對手失 誤（11.8 次）排名墊底，在阻攻（3.9 次）則排名第 29。花生先前因為大腿後肌拉傷缺 陣了很長一段時間，讓球隊在這些環節極度想念他，直到 3 月 22 日他才終於回歸。他 的阻攻（場均 1.1 次）領先全隊，幫助掩護了三屆 MVP 阿肥最明顯的弱點，抄截（1.0 次）則排名第二。AG 同樣因為大腿後肌的問題缺席了大半時間，雖然他沒有大量的阻攻 或抄截，但他卻是將金塊防守體系黏合在一起的萬能膠帶。 —— Tim MacMahon Opponent to avoid: Houston Rockets It might seem counterintuitive to suggest the turnover-happy Rockets offense could be a problem for the turnover-averse Nuggets defense. But if Houston's main issue is too many turnovers, then it might find smoother sailing against a Nuggets offense that won't take away the ball very often. Combine a relative lack of turnovers with all of Houston's offensive rebounds, and the Rockets could win the possession battle decisively against Denver. -- Kram 應避免碰上的對手：火箭 說失誤連連的火箭進攻會給不常製造失誤的金塊防守帶來麻煩，聽起來似乎有些違背直覺 。但如果火箭最大的問題就是失誤過多，那麼在面對一支不常將球抄走的金塊防守時，他 們可能會打得更加順手。如果將相對較少的失誤，與火箭大把大把的進攻籃板結合在一起 ，火箭可能會在面對金塊時，取得決定性的球權爭奪優勢。 —— Zach Kram ============================================================================== No. 6: Minnesota Timberwolves Chance to make the West semifinals: 37.8% Chance to make the Finals: 1.9% 第6名：灰狼 晉級西區準決賽機率：37.8% 晉級總冠軍賽機率：1.9% Kryptonite: Bench production The Timberwolves rank 23rd in the league with only 33.5 bench points per game, sorely missing the offensive punch that Nickeil Alexander-Walker provided before leaving for a free agency payday from Atlanta. But Minnesota has made major progress in this area recently. The trade-deadline acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu gave the Wolves' bench a major boost. He has averaged 13.2 points with an effective field goal percentage of 59.9%, serving as a reserve before filling in as a starter as Anthony Edwards deals with right knee soreness. Bones Hyland also has been balling, averaging 17.6 points on .484/.417/.929 shooting splits in the past five games, helping the Wolves go 4-1 in Edwards' absence. -- MacMahon 罩門：板凳火力 灰狼的板凳場均只有 33.5 分，排在聯盟第 23 名，他們極度想念 NAW 在以自由球員身 分前往老鷹尋求大合約前所提供的進攻火力。不過，灰狼最近在這個領域取得了重大進展 。交易截止日換來的 Ayo Dosunmu 帶給灰狼板凳巨大的助力。在代班因右膝痠痛缺陣的 AE 擔任先發之前，他以替補身分繳出了 59.9% 真實命中率、場均 13.2 分的成績。 Bones Hyland 近期也表現極佳，在過去五場比賽中繳出投籃三圍 .484/.417/.929、場 均 17.6 分的亮眼數據，幫助灰狼在 AE 缺陣的情況下取得 4 勝 1 敗的佳績。 —— Tim MacMahon Opponent to avoid: Oklahoma City Thunder The Thunder could swamp the Timberwolves' bench units, as they have the NBA's deepest team, with up to 13 players worthy of appearing in their playoff rotation if everyone is healthy this spring. That gives Oklahoma City plenty of backup plans if something goes wrong in any particular game, whereas Minnesota's relatively short rotation translates to a lack of flexibility. -- Kram 應避免碰上的對手：雷霆 雷霆絕對能淹沒灰狼的替補陣容，因為他們擁有全聯盟最深的陣容；如果今年春天全員健 康，他們有多達 13 名球員有實力進入季後賽輪替名單。這讓雷霆在任何特定比賽中出狀 況時都有充足的備案選項；相較之下，灰狼較短的輪替陣容則意味著缺乏調度的彈性。 —— Zach Kram ================================= 懶人包 ===================================== 活塞 閃 綠賽、尼克 綠賽 閃 活塞 尼克 閃 熱火 騎士 閃 黃蜂 雷霆 閃 馬刺 馬刺 閃 湖人 湖人 閃 灰狼、馬刺 火箭 閃 雷霆 金塊 閃 火箭 灰狼 閃 雷霆 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 42.72.66.108 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1775008943.A.D13.html ※ 編輯: YesBros (42.72.66.108 臺灣), 04/01/2026 10:03:23 ※ 編輯: YesBros (42.72.66.108 臺灣), 04/01/2026 10:06:13
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04/01 10:05, 9小時前 , 1F
大聲喊出那五個字！
04/01 10:05, 1F
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04/01 10:07, 9小時前 , 2F
我要怎麼理解馬刺閃湖人 湖人閃馬刺
04/01 10:07, 2F
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04/01 10:07, 9小時前 , 3F
互閃到底是啥鬼
04/01 10:07, 3F
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04/01 10:08, 9小時前 , 4F
很正常啊 第一名也是會想躲第二名
04/01 10:08, 4F
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04/01 10:08, 9小時前 , 5F
主要是每隊都有軟肋點
04/01 10:08, 5F
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04/01 10:08, 9小時前 , 6F
等等裡面怎麼混入火箭 火箭每一隊都想抓吧
04/01 10:08, 6F
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04/01 10:09, 9小時前 , 7F
湖人閃馬刺 馬刺閃湖人 彼此是彼此的罩門嗎？
04/01 10:09, 7F
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04/01 10:09, 9小時前 , 8F
寫啥鬼，湖人閃馬刺閃湖人
04/01 10:09, 8F
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04/01 10:10, 9小時前 , 9F
彼此的罩門 這篇文章講的重點
04/01 10:10, 9F
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04/01 10:10, 9小時前 , 10F
我怕你你怕我
04/01 10:10, 10F
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04/01 10:10, 9小時前 , 11F
火箭也沒那麼弱吧
04/01 10:10, 11F
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04/01 10:10, 9小時前 , 12F
這機率還是別寫了吧... 超莫名
04/01 10:10, 12F
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04/01 10:10, 9小時前 , 13F
馬刺避免遇糊糊 糊糊避免遇馬刺 我建議用喬的
04/01 10:10, 13F
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04/01 10:10, 9小時前 , 14F
呃 教我一下怎麼閃 PASS嗎?
04/01 10:10, 14F
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04/01 10:11, 9小時前 , 15F
火箭正常來說 是被過高失誤率打斷球隊節奏
04/01 10:11, 15F
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04/01 10:11, 9小時前 , 16F
活塞要避免綠塞 綠塞要避免活塞 笑死
04/01 10:11, 16F
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04/01 10:12, 9小時前 , 17F
賽綠的罩門感覺是想不到其他硬湊的
04/01 10:12, 17F
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04/01 10:12, 9小時前 , 18F
太不看好湖人了吧 有沒有考慮到裁判問題
04/01 10:12, 18F
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04/01 10:13, 9小時前 , 19F
東部第一第二名根本互相矛盾嗎？這還看個
04/01 10:13, 19F
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04/01 10:13, 9小時前 , 20F
該不會是AI寫的吧
04/01 10:13, 20F
就算是AI寫的 每段後面都有壓 ESPN insider 的名字唷~ 壓名字是要負責任滴~
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04/01 10:13, 9小時前 , 21F
馬刺對快艇或太陽都很抖 先過第一輪吧
04/01 10:13, 21F
※ 編輯: YesBros (42.72.66.108 臺灣), 04/01/2026 10:15:10
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04/01 10:14, 9小時前 , 22F
湖人抓馬刺，穩了
04/01 10:14, 22F
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04/01 10:17, 9小時前 , 23F
不覺得雷霆今年進總決賽的機率有55%
04/01 10:17, 23F
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04/01 10:18, 9小時前 , 24F
JDUB感覺還沒完全恢復
04/01 10:18, 24F
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04/01 10:18, 9小時前 , 25F
互閃是什麼鬼啦XDD
04/01 10:18, 25F
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04/01 10:19, 9小時前 , 26F
別鬧了 金塊一定很希望碰上火箭 沒三分球的金塊最
04/01 10:19, 26F
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04/01 10:19, 9小時前 , 27F
喜歡打
04/01 10:19, 27F
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04/01 10:19, 9小時前 , 28F
湖人怕馬刺 馬刺怕湖人 薛丁格的分析
04/01 10:19, 28F
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04/01 10:20, 9小時前 , 29F
金塊現在打誰都很涼，超級破的防守效率.....
04/01 10:20, 29F
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04/01 10:21, 9小時前 , 30F
但他提到的內容蠻中肯的
04/01 10:21, 30F
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04/01 10:23, 9小時前 , 31F
塞怕賽 賽也怕塞...人家都怕一支球隊 東1居然怕2支
04/01 10:23, 31F
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04/01 10:23, 9小時前 , 32F
要互閃都有各自的論點 還行吧？
04/01 10:23, 32F
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04/01 10:24, 9小時前 , 33F
論點上都蠻清晰的 至少我看完馬刺的時候想的是上次
04/01 10:24, 33F
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04/01 10:24, 9小時前 , 34F
被東77一個人打爛的畫面
04/01 10:24, 34F
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04/01 10:24, 9小時前 , 35F
湖人應該避免的對手應該是每一隊
04/01 10:24, 35F
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04/01 10:25, 9小時前 , 36F
馬刺怕湖人 我真的會笑死 馬刺後場切湖人跟切豆腐
04/01 10:25, 36F
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04/01 10:25, 9小時前 , 37F
一樣簡單
04/01 10:25, 37F
還有 33 則推文
還有 1 段內文
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04/01 11:16, 8小時前 , 71F
淨罰球第一和第二是湖刺 整天雷霆的都不看數據嗎
04/01 11:16, 71F
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04/01 11:17, 8小時前 , 72F
看裁判照誰 End
04/01 11:17, 72F
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04/01 11:21, 8小時前 , 73F
馬刺湖人如果按照這個輪次下去 準決要正面對決了
04/01 11:21, 73F
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04/01 11:22, 8小時前 , 74F
快攻首先你要很會造失誤
04/01 11:22, 74F
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04/01 11:22, 8小時前 , 75F
東區每一隊進東冠決賽都7X%，哪個時空的數學？
04/01 11:22, 75F
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04/01 11:22, 8小時前 , 76F
關鍵能力(裁判)
04/01 11:22, 76F
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04/01 11:27, 8小時前 , 77F
馬刺想閃湖人，湖人也想閃馬刺，那你們兩個就先打吧
04/01 11:27, 77F
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04/01 11:32, 8小時前 , 78F
我覺得馬刺 打誰都不准 打湖人 應該很輕鬆
04/01 11:32, 78F
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04/01 11:33, 8小時前 , 79F
這篇是魚人節笑話嗎
04/01 11:33, 79F
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04/01 11:43, 7小時前 , 80F
把裁判因素算進去 湖人肯定是第二
04/01 11:43, 80F
噓
04/01 11:44, 7小時前 , 81F
金塊今年打火箭3-1，然後說不要對到火箭?
04/01 11:44, 81F
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04/01 11:46, 7小時前 , 82F
小乞丐阿 數據跟實際比賽好好去看一下吧 地板涼快嗎
04/01 11:46, 82F
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04/01 11:53, 7小時前 , 83F
互閃是三小
04/01 11:53, 83F
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04/01 11:55, 7小時前 , 84F
人人抓馬刺，馬刺瑟瑟發抖
04/01 11:55, 84F
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04/01 11:58, 7小時前 , 85F
互相閃對方不就光闇互剋
04/01 11:58, 85F
噓
04/01 12:02, 7小時前 , 86F
互閃有夠白痴
04/01 12:02, 86F
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04/01 12:07, 7小時前 , 87F
湖人先想辦法過第一輪吧 很可能又打灰狼
04/01 12:07, 87F
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04/01 12:19, 7小時前 , 88F
湖人怕馬刺 馬刺也怕湖人 啥鬼啊
04/01 12:19, 88F
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04/01 12:31, 7小時前 , 89F
怎麼沒有勇士的分析
04/01 12:31, 89F
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04/01 12:38, 6小時前 , 90F
互閃有點難理解
04/01 12:38, 90F
推
04/01 12:58, 6小時前 , 91F
雷霆進總冠機率55%...也太高
04/01 12:58, 91F
推
04/01 13:08, 6小時前 , 92F
同一個人寫戶閃是左右腦互博嗎
04/01 13:08, 92F
推
04/01 13:16, 6小時前 , 93F
地板涼快啊 總比攤手好 說人沒看球的笑死 三分投一
04/01 13:16, 93F
→
04/01 13:16, 6小時前 , 94F
堆還一堆罰球
04/01 13:16, 94F
→
04/01 13:17, 6小時前 , 95F
場均十顆三分出手 罰球全聯盟第一 笑死
04/01 13:17, 95F
→
04/01 13:18, 6小時前 , 96F
數據不就湖人罰球斷超多檔領先
04/01 13:18, 96F
推
04/01 13:24, 6小時前 , 97F
沒有統一性的東西會互相矛盾很正常吧
04/01 13:24, 97F
→
04/01 14:00, 5小時前 , 98F
看到互閃就覺得這篇是笨色==
04/01 14:00, 98F
推
04/01 14:07, 5小時前 , 99F
馬刺問題在經驗吧 球員 教練都菜到不行 不知道pop
04/01 14:07, 99F
→
04/01 14:07, 5小時前 , 100F
能不能幫忙
04/01 14:07, 100F
→
04/01 14:09, 5小時前 , 101F
湖人超怕馬刺的 三衛切爽的
04/01 14:09, 101F
→
04/01 14:10, 5小時前 , 102F
包夾輕鬆分給底角 馬刺底角又很準 湖人撲防又慢
04/01 14:10, 102F
推
04/01 14:18, 5小時前 , 103F
活塞最怕：綠賽、尼克，綠賽最怕：活塞，到底誰怕
04/01 14:18, 103F
→
04/01 14:18, 5小時前 , 104F
誰？你弄得我好亂啊
04/01 14:18, 104F
推
04/01 15:11, 4小時前 , 105F
給後面球隊自己選應該沒人想遇到東西區前二吧
04/01 15:11, 105F
噓
04/01 15:13, 4小時前 , 106F
西區前六 金塊肯定最想遇到火箭
04/01 15:13, 106F
→
04/01 15:57, 3小時前 , 107F
板上都說馬刺怕三分大隊 結果球評分析馬刺怕湖人?
04/01 15:57, 107F
推
04/01 16:10, 3小時前 , 108F
看起來超像AI文
04/01 16:10, 108F
推
04/01 17:30, 2小時前 , 109F
笑死 結果西區大家都想抓馬刺???
04/01 17:30, 109F
推
04/01 19:15, 19分鐘前 , 110F
馬刺怕金塊、金塊怕雷霆、雷霆沒在怕裁判，結案
04/01 19:15, 110F
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