[情報] Are Mets Prospects Overhyped?

看板NY-Mets作者wilmerflores (YankeeSuck)時間16年前 (2008/11/21 00:47)推噓2(2推 0噓 0→)

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Are Mets Prospects Overhyped? 大都會的新秀有被高估(過度宣傳)嗎? Scribbled by: Mike Newman @ 2:15 am | Filed under: Articles, Mets Minors Let’s start by taking Mets fans off of the defensive by acknowledging Mets prospects are certainly not the most overhyped in major league baseball. However, the hype machine does seem to work overtime for the Mets, often making it difficult for die-hard Mets fans to recognize where their prospects fit into the big picture. 讓我們先透過確認,大都會的新秀很明顯的並不是大聯盟中最被過度宣傳的開始, 來讓大都會的球迷們放下戒心. (他XD..連巷口賣麵的都知道有個牛奶弟和大弟,老子和F-Mart兄勒..還有Murphy...) 儘管如此, 宣傳的機器確實是有替大都會過度工作的跡象, 讓那些死忠的大都會球迷們很困難的去認識到底他們的新秀們在球隊藍圖中的適當位置. In my time writing for MetsGeek, I’ve seen a number of posters throw out trades like Bobby Parnell and Eddie Kunz for Jake Peavy while labeling prospects like Jon Niese and Daniel Murphy untouchable. While I appreciate the fervor in which Mets fans support their team, I sometimes wonder how certain prospects become so overvalued in the eyes of their fans. 在我替MetsGeek寫作的時間裡, 我曾看過不少類似用Bobby Parnell和Eddie Kunz去換 Jake Peavy(...你當人家的Fair Trade壞了),同時確保Jon Niese和Daniel Murphy之類的新秀是不可動的文.當然我非常的感激這些大都會球迷如此的熱情的支持著這支球隊, 我也時時在想到是怎麼樣才會讓某幾位的新秀在球迷的眼中盡然是如此的被高估. When assessing the potential for players being overhyped, one often needs to look no further than the size of the media market. A sub category of this is how many teams are in a particular city and where each ranks in popularity. Additionally, organizational success breeds fan support and is another contributing factor. Based on this, my top five organizations in terms of potential for hype are: 1. New York Yankees 2. Los Angeles Dodgers 3. Boston Red Sox 4. New York Mets 5. Chicago Cubs 當評估球員被高估的潛在機會時,一個時常被參考不外乎的就媒體市場的大小, 而其下的分類則是有多少個球隊在一個特定的城市中還有他們受歡迎程度的排名. 除此之外,球團成功的培植球迷支持也是另外一個有所貢獻的因素. 基於以上的,我心目中前五名過度高估球員的排名是: 1.紐約洋基隊(毫無疑問...XD) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(這在我心目中是很大的一段距離... 不是排個名解決的了的) 2.洛杉磯道奇隊(恩....老實說也都打得不錯呀..) 3.波士頓紅襪(Lester...Pedoria..Lowrie..Pelpobon..Ellsubury..Masterson.. 拜託他們上大聯盟而且打得不錯的可多了...) 4.New York Mets(...拜託老子是真貨..I'll Show You) 5.Chicago Cubs(...恩....) These organizations have the largest fan bases and therefore garner the most significant media attention. For those of you who read prospect chats, the following should be all too familiar: 這些球團有著最大的球迷基礎也因此獲得了最多的媒體關注. 對那些會去看關於新秀們的閒談的人,以下的對話應該滿熟悉的: Host: Welcome to the chat. Fire away! NYFan1: Who is the top prospect in the Mets organization? Host: Fernando Martinez or Wilmer Flores SoxFan: Is Michael Almanzar better than Wilmer Flores? Host: No. DodgerBlue: Is Kershaw the top young pitcher in baseball? Host: Yes. Better than Price! YanksH8R: F-Mart or Austin Jackson? Host: F-Mart MetsKing: Is Jon Niese going to be in the Mets ro? Host: Maybe, if they don’t sign anybody. GoYanks: Is Ian Kennedy going to be in the Yanks ro? Host: Aceves has jumped him on the depth chart. Lonely Royal: What is Mike Montgomery’s ceiling? Host: Solid #2. Stock has risen. 主持人:歡迎來聊聊. 開火啦! NYFan1:誰是大都會農場中的最佳新秀? 主持人:Fernando Martinez 或著是 Wilmer Flores(明年就只剩我一個了) SoxFan: Michael Almanzar 有比 Wilmer Flores好嗎(..拜託這種問題用xx想都知道) 主持人:當然沒有!(廢話!算你識相) DodgerBlue:Kershaw是最棒的年輕投手嗎? Host:是的. 比Price更好!(看...不管Price..你把Lincecum放哪了) YanksH8R:那F-Mart和Austin Jackson?(拜託你的膝蓋是幹嘛用的) Host:F-Mart(恩.....) MetsKing:Jon Niese明年會出現在大都會的先發輪值內嗎 Host:有可能.如果他們誰都沒簽的話.(你想有可能嗎...) GoYanks:Ian Kennedy會出現在洋基明年的先發輪值嗎? Host:Aceves在球員深度表上都在跳到他上面啦 Lonely Royal:Montgomery的極限大概在哪呀(這ID用有夠機掰到...孤獨的皇家) Host:一個不錯的2號,他的價值提升了. With the sheer number of fans from the big market franchises, they tend to dominate the conversation with a number of very similar questions asked different ways. Hosts even make comments about how often the same question is asked in the hope fans will get the point. With the conversation driven in ways similar to the chat above, it’s only natural for prospects from major media markets to rise in name recognition. That name recognition leads to hype when the players output does not equal the buzz surrounding them. 那些大市場球團的球迷擁有著大部分的數量,他們幾乎掌控了整個談話過程, 用著不同的方式,詢問著極其相似的問題.主持人甚至替一個相同的問題被反覆的問了多少次,去做了註解,希望球迷能抓住重點.但那些和上述相似的對話被反覆的帶入. 這非常自然的,那些來自主要媒體市場的新秀,他們的知名度提高.這份知名度帶來的是高估和球員所表現出的無法和那些圍繞在他身旁得期待相等. Bobby Parnell is a perfect example of this. I’ve seen his name on many Mets fans top five prospect lists and his name comes up frequently on prospect chats. Meanwhile, his 4.62 ERA, middling strikeout totals and more than a hit per inning allowed are the epitome of average. Bobby Parnell是個完美的例子.我曾經看過許多大都會的球迷將它擺在最佳新秀的前五名,然後他的名字常常在閒聊中被提及.同時,他卻有著4.62的ERA,和中等的三振數, 和每局被打超過一支的安打,正是平均的縮影呀. The media also plays a huge role in they hype machine. A poster on MetsGeek was correct in bashing the media for their impatience with Mets prospects. The question I ask is where does the impatience come from? My answer would be from prospects being mentioned so many times starting at a young age that they are expected to produce MVP or Cy Young type numbers from day one. This is especially dangerous since I doubt reporters covering the Mets have the prospect knowledge of many well read Mets bloggers and fans. When time to research prospects is limited due to commitments to writing about the big club, writers tend to focus too much on raw numbers which can create a warped view of the prospects’ true value (see Mike Carp). 媒體在過度宣傳的機械上球員上扮演著巨大的角色.一份MetsGeek上的文在斥責媒體對於大都會新秀們的缺乏耐心上是正確的.但我的問題是那些人的不耐是出自何處? 我的答案是它們期待那些它們每每提及的年輕新秀們,要從第一天開始就產出MVP或 Cy Young等級的表現.這是非常的危險,特別是我打賭那些負責報導大都會的記者們有著那些認真閱讀報導的大都會部落客和球迷對於新秀的相關知識.當談到研究新秀時, 被侷限在只受到委託去寫關於大球團的新秀們.作家們變得太專注於那些會造成一個扭曲新秀真正價值的原始數據.(看看Mike Carp................) I’m confident Lastings Milledge will be an All-Star-caliber player before all is said and done. In all honestly, 2008 should have been his rookie season. Had it been, he would have finished in the top-five in rookie of the year balloting and would be entering 2009 as the new toast of New York and the best home-grown African-American player since Straw and Doc. Instead, he’ ll be a cornerstone in the Nationals’ rise to respectability after being dealt for a song as a fall guy for the Mets 2007 collapse. 我很有信心Lasting Milledge會變成一個有著全明星級實力的選手,在這一切發生之前 (冏...........................) 老實說,2008才該是他的新人球季.假如是這樣的話,它會結束在ROY的投票前五名,然後會以紐約的新火紅人物的身分進入2009,同時也是自從Straw和Doc後最棒的土生土長非裔球員.被當成在2007年時在大都會季末崩盤的失敗者的他,反而將會成為國民的基石, 獲得尊敬. As an aspiring writer and blogger, I find myself a guilty party in making the hype machine worse, not better. On Baseball Handyman, 25 of 86 posts are about the Mets and Yankees. An additional 11 feature the Braves, another franchise whose prospects sometimes receive undue hype (think Kyle Davies). Meanwhile, I have made just one mention of the Nationals, Indians, and Mariners. 生為一個有抱負的作家和部落客. 我是有罪的,讓宣傳的機器更差,而不是更好. 在BaseBall Handyman上, 86個中的25個文是有關於大都會和洋基的.另外在加上11個勇士的.其他的球團的新秀時常受到不適當的宣傳.(想想Kyle Davies). 同時,我只有一次提到關於國民,印地安人和水手. With that said, I guess prospect hype is cyclical. Writers want readers so they write about franchises who have the most fans. Fans obviously want to discuss their own players so they ask questions about their teams prospects. The teams with the most fans has the most questions asked and the cycle repeats. 因為這樣,我猜新秀的宣傳是有週期性的的.作家需要讀者,所以他們寫那些有著最多球迷的球團的新秀們.球迷們明顯的希望討論那些它們所支持的球隊的新秀,所以他們問關於他們的問題,有著最多球迷的球隊有著最多的問題,然後一直反覆著這個循環. What Mets fans can do is look at their own prospects with the understanding their opinion of a player is likely 10-20% more generous than a non-fan’s would be. This will help temper expectations and keep perceived trade values in the realm of realistic. It will also help many a Mets fan keep from sounding silly the next time the temptation to offer up Bobby Parnell/Mike Carp/Josh Thole for B.J. Upton around the water cooler gets them laughed out of the building. 大都會球迷們可以做的是,看著他們自家的新秀.然後理解對於這些球員的評價,和一個非大都會球迷的人比起來,有著10%~20%的友善.這有助於調整期待和保持自己在現實世界裡面去理解球員的交易價值. (電動打太多或收集公仔成性可不是不只是國內的通病) 這也同時會幫助許多大都會的球迷不再次的去提及試著用 Bobby Parnell/Mike Carp/Josh Thole去換B.J.Upton時叫他閉嘴,然後笑到他無地自容. (...這成了我以後改拜Omar Minaya...) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 好險這個問題目前在台灣好像還不嚴重...只有隔壁的兄弟有這困擾... 我想人氣平均是5人以下的板通常沒這困擾...XD 我在連考三科必修後極度缺乏睡眠的情況下翻的... 有錯請多多見諒 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.168.36.156 ※ 編輯: wilmerflores 來自: 118.168.36.156 (11/21 00:48) ※ 編輯: wilmerflores 來自: 118.168.36.156 (11/21 00:52)