2009 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets

看板NY-Mets作者abc12812時間16年前 (2008/12/21 13:30)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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http://tinyurl.com/7xbf4r The Mets are a hard team to evaluate at this point in the offseason as they're one of the teams actually looking to invest in their team, which they obviously need to do while Delgado's still decent, Beltran's not aging, and Wright/Reyes are cheap (both signed through 2011 at well below market value). The Mets, more than most other teams, would be smart to overpay for an inning eater for the rotation now that the problems with the bullpen have been filled aggressively. There are still some questions that need to be answered at a few positions, most notably 2B (as already debated over in Dialed In earlier this week). The Mets will likely stand pat with the starting lineup as much as possible. Overall, the Mets should be one of the best NL teams in 2009. Choking is overrated - the team came up short due to some holes and they've been doing their best this offseason to fill them. And yes, I know Billy Wagner's injured and not going to pitch in 2009. I know I reiterate this kind of thing every time in the disclaimer, but in my experience, disclaimers are rarely read. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATCHERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG AVERAGE Ramon Castro .248 .310 .447 50 141 18 35 7 0 7 25 12 37 98 Fr FAIR Brian Schneider* .251 .336 .360 108 342 30 86 16 0 7 50 43 56 86 Av POOR Robinson Cancel .241 .289 .369 68 203 20 49 9 1 5 21 12 34 74 Av Gustavo Molina .216 .268 .317 89 278 19 60 10 0 6 26 17 51 56 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRST BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG AVERAGE Carlos Delgado* .263 .340 .480 137 521 75 137 27 1 28 94 54 114 115 Fr FAIR Fernando Tatis .262 .327 .431 117 401 50 105 21 1 15 56 36 78 100 Av Val Pascucci .240 .331 .415 125 446 54 107 21 0 19 64 56 115 97 Fr POOR Michel Abreu .270 .322 .414 109 382 42 103 19 0 12 52 28 66 94 Av Daniel Murphy* .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 97 Av Damion Easley .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 89 Av Nicholas Evans .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 89 Fr Marlon Anderson* .262 .322 .387 87 160 21 42 9 1 3 23 14 31 88 Av Robinson Cancel .241 .289 .369 68 203 20 49 9 1 5 21 12 34 74 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG AVERAGE Daniel Murphy* .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 97 Fr FAIR Luis Castillo# .279 .351 .348 117 451 69 126 16 3 3 39 50 44 87 Fr Damion Easley .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 89 Fr Marlon Anderson* .262 .322 .387 87 160 21 42 9 1 3 23 14 31 88 Fr POOR Argenis Reyes# .259 .302 .325 138 495 59 128 17 2 4 34 28 66 67 Av Ramon Martinez .248 .312 .301 60 153 15 38 5 0 1 20 14 16 64 Fr Andy Machado# .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 60 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIRD BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG EXCELLENT David Wright .309 .398 .548 157 602 111 186 41 2 33 120 87 112 149 Av AVERAGE Fernando Tatis .262 .327 .431 117 401 50 105 21 1 15 56 36 78 100 Pr FAIR Daniel Murphy* .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 97 Fr Damion Easley .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 89 Fr Nicholas Evans .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 89 Pr POOR Ramon Martinez .248 .312 .301 60 153 15 38 5 0 1 20 14 16 64 Fr Andy Machado# .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 60 Av Gustavo Molina .216 .268 .317 89 278 19 60 10 0 6 26 17 51 56 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHORTSTOPS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG EXCELLENT Jose Reyes# .297 .361 .473 157 674 120 200 36 16 17 71 67 78 120 Av AVERAGE Damion Easley .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 89 Pr POOR Argenis Reyes# .259 .302 .325 138 495 59 128 17 2 4 34 28 66 67 Av Ramon Martinez .248 .312 .301 60 153 15 38 5 0 1 20 14 16 64 Pr Andy Machado# .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 60 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORNER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG VERY GOOD Ryan Church* .270 .352 .473 119 385 55 104 25 1 17 64 45 96 117 Av Av FAIR Fernando Tatis .262 .327 .431 117 401 50 105 21 1 15 56 36 78 100 Fr Fr John Rodriguez* .261 .344 .408 97 238 35 62 12 1 7 25 26 56 99 Fr Fr Val Pascucci .240 .331 .415 125 446 54 107 21 0 19 64 56 115 97 Fr Fr Daniel Murphy* .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 97 Av Av Chris Aguila .260 .320 .418 103 335 42 87 15 1 12 40 28 74 94 Av Fr POOR Damion Easley .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 89 Av Nicholas Evans .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 89 Fr Marlon Anderson* .262 .322 .387 87 160 21 42 9 1 3 23 14 31 88 Av Jeremy Reed* .267 .316 .382 118 419 53 112 21 3 7 48 29 52 86 Vg Angel Pagan# .253 .309 .371 87 237 31 60 12 2 4 19 20 42 80 Av Jesus Feliciano* .273 .318 .335 97 319 36 87 12 1 2 30 19 33 74 Av Robinson Cancel .241 .289 .369 68 203 20 49 9 1 5 21 12 34 74 Fr Andy Machado# .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 60 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CENTERFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG EXCELLENT Carlos Beltran# .279 .370 .515 146 551 106 154 36 2 30 105 80 102 133 Ex VERY GOOD Ryan Church* .270 .352 .473 119 385 55 104 25 1 17 64 45 96 117 Pr FAIR Chris Aguila .260 .320 .418 103 335 42 87 15 1 12 40 28 74 94 Fr Jeremy Reed* .267 .316 .382 118 419 53 112 21 3 7 48 29 52 86 Av POOR Angel Pagan# .253 .309 .371 87 237 31 60 12 2 4 19 20 42 80 Av Fernando Martinez .248 .292 .370 79 327 37 81 15 2 7 30 19 61 75 Fr Jesus Feliciano* .273 .318 .335 97 319 36 87 12 1 2 30 19 33 74 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ TOP THIRD Johan Santana* 30 3.23 16 8 32 32 220.0 190 79 29 53 232 133 MIDDLE THIRD John Maine 28 4.15 11 9 27 27 154.0 141 71 20 65 140 103 Mike Pelfrey 25 4.24 8 8 24 24 140.0 147 66 11 53 82 101 Pedro Martinez 37 4.50 5 5 15 15 86.0 83 43 14 27 82 95 Oliver Perez* 27 4.83 9 10 29 29 164.0 159 88 26 87 159 89 Jonathan Niese* 22 4.85 9 11 31 31 165.0 182 89 21 57 101 88 BOTTOM THIRD Tony Armas Jr. 31 4.93 5 6 16 15 84.0 92 46 12 26 53 87 Claudio Vargas 31 4.97 7 10 25 21 125.0 136 69 20 42 94 86 Bobby Parnell 24 5.38 7 11 29 28 144.0 159 86 21 72 81 80 Nelson Figueroa 35 5.75 5 9 26 18 122.0 141 78 24 47 75 74 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ TOP THIRD Francisco Rodriguez 2.34 5 1 73 0 73.0 51 19 4 35 101 183 J.J. Putz 2.59 6 2 58 0 59.0 44 17 4 19 71 162 Billy Wagner* 2.84 2 1 56 0 57.0 47 18 6 17 69 151 MIDDLE THIRD Pedro Feliciano* 3.66 4 2 76 0 59.0 54 24 6 25 55 117 Matt Wise 4.11 3 2 34 0 35.0 36 16 4 11 24 104 Sean Green 4.15 5 4 65 0 78.0 74 36 2 37 51 103 BOTTOM THIRD Ricardo Rincon* 4.50 0 0 6 0 4.0 4 2 0 2 4 95 Connor Robertson 4.50 5 5 50 0 72.0 72 36 7 32 57 95 Brandon Knight 4.58 4 4 31 4 57.0 55 29 9 24 54 94 Duaner Sanchez 4.60 2 2 45 0 43.0 43 22 7 17 34 93 Eddie Kunz 4.62 2 2 38 0 39.0 39 20 3 23 22 93 Luis Ayala 4.77 4 5 70 0 66.0 70 35 8 23 43 90 Rocky Cherry 4.91 2 3 52 0 66.0 68 36 9 31 49 87 Ambiorix Burgos 4.94 1 2 27 0 31.0 30 17 6 16 34 87 Carlos Muniz 4.95 3 4 52 0 60.0 63 33 9 24 39 87 Brian Stokes 4.97 7 8 45 16 125.0 139 69 15 49 73 86 Ruddy Lugo 5.03 5 7 43 9 93.0 97 52 11 47 58 85 Willie Collazo* 5.16 5 8 39 13 122.0 142 70 19 34 52 83 Jose Santiago 6.19 2 6 31 6 80.0 100 55 15 28 33 69 * - Throws Left ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Nick Evans (LF) AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Projection .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 89 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Luis Melendez, Ray Sadler ODDIBE Offense % STAR 5 AVG 17 REP LV 56 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0 >140 0 >.375 2 >5 16 >150 0 >130 1 >.350 7 >120 5 >.325 22 2B % >110 13 >.300 56 >45 0 >100 28 >30 6 >90 48 >80 68 >60 94 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 0 >.500 4 >40 0 >50 0 >.300 4 >.450 25 >30 0 >30 0 >.275 17 >.400 60 >20 13 >10 11 >.250 50 >.350 89 >10 81 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Daniel Murphy (LF) AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Projection .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 97 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ed Kranepool, Brett Roneberg ODDIBE Offense % STAR 10 AVG 27 REP LV 70 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0 >140 2 >.375 3 >5 7 >150 20 >130 5 >.350 16 >120 11 >.325 48 2B % >110 21 >.300 83 >45 2 >100 38 >30 40 >90 60 >80 80 >60 97 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 3 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 2 >.500 8 >40 0 >50 0 >.300 11 >.450 24 >30 3 >30 0 >.275 40 >.400 60 >20 19 >10 53 >.250 77 >.350 91 >10 88 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - John Maine ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 4.15 11 9 27 27 154 141 71 20 65 140 103 Top Near-Age Comps: Roger Pavlik, Pete Harnish ODDIBE ERA % Top 1/3 50 Mid 1/3 30 Bot 1/3 20 ERA+ % BB % >150 7 <26 0 >140 12 <34 2 >130 19 <43 8 >120 28 <51 26 >110 41 <60 39 >100 57 <68 65 >90 73 >80 88 HR % >70 96 <12 16 <17 39 K % <22 64 >154 14 <27 79 >137 41 >120 72 >103 98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Mike Pelfrey ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 4.24 8 8 24 24 140 147 66 11 53 82 101 Top Near-Age Comps: Storm Davis, Mel Stottleymyre ODDIBE ERA % Top 1/3 41 Mid 1/3 39 Bot 1/3 20 ERA+ % BB % >150 2 <23 0 >140 3 <31 2 >130 8 <39 19 >120 17 <47 31 >110 31 <54 61 >100 50 <62 76 >90 73 >80 90 HR % >70 99 <11 47 <16 75 K % <20 95 >140 0 <25 99 >124 0 >109 6 >93 19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) OPS+ >140 Wright 71 Beltran 36 Church 15 OBP >.400 Wright 49 Beltran 18 Castillo 9 SLG >.550 Wright 46 Beltran 27 Delgado 13 BA >.325 Wright 17 Reyes 9 Castillo 7 2B >45 Wright 23 Reyes 10 Beltran 7 3B >10 Reyes 87 Beltran 2 HR >30 Wright 67 Beltran 53 Delgado 32 SB >50 Reyes 65 A. Reyes 2 ERA+ >140 Rodriguez 78 Putz 74 Wagner 61 K/9 >9 Rodriguez 93 Putz 88 Wagner 80 BB/9 <1.5 Santana 15 Wagner 10 Collazzo 4 HR/9 <0.7 Green 97 Rodriguez 69 Putz 61 All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3