Five Questions: New York Mets

看板NY-Mets作者nolander (Dent)時間15年前 (2010/04/03 15:55)推噓5(5推 0噓 2→)

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※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板] 作者: nolander (Dent) 站內: MLB 標題: Five Questions: New York Mets 時間: Sat Apr 3 15:50:10 2010 原文連結: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-new-york-mets5/ Five questions: New York Mets 五題:紐約梅子 by Jonathan Halket April 02, 2010 Some questions are questions, others are really answers. The Mets enter the 2010 season with question marks hovering ominously over virtually every player. There remains much that is unsure or even unknown about this team. But the number and nature of so many of the questions should help us answer two questions about the team's prospects and management's prospects. 有些問題誰也答不了而其他的會有答案梅子們今年背負著為數驚人且巨大的問號而那問號差不多都來自於神對每個梅子球員下的降頭也因此儘管這些問題太困難...天意不可違你也知道的但我們試圖用一些問題來探索這球隊的未來 How healthy is Jose Reyes? Will Jason Bay be a huge liability in left field? What about Jeff Francoeur at the plate? Can the new, veteran catchers, Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco, really help the pitching staff? How much will Luis Castillo regress from last season? Will the bullpen be any good? Will David Wright's power return? These are some of the questions that I don't ask—I have only five. However, I might sneakily answer some of them as I deal with some of the others. Jose Reyes還健康嗎? 接生貝是不是個能依靠的左外? 粉褲到底酷不酷? 新來的老捕手Rod Barajas跟Henry Blanco能不能幫上現在這群投手的忙? 卡司題能不能(照常理)反彈? 牛棚有沒有擋頭? D.萊特的炮瓦回得來嗎? 這些問題我不會都問當然因為只有五題要答不過我會利用答某題的機會順便提到其他幾題 (譯按:廢話= =) 1. Whither Carlos Beltran? 1. 川哥將走向何方? When the Mets signed Beltran in 2005, they were buying the services of a complete player. When healthy, he's been probably the best center fielder in the game the past several years. After undergoing some sort of knee surgery (at one point rumored to be microfracture surgery, but seemingly merely arthroscopic in nature) this past season, there are naturally some questions about how much speed he'll still have. Always an extremely savvy base-stealer, he'd seen some decline in stolen base attempts in recent years as his knee pain worsened. 05年簽下川哥梅子是為了一個完整的高手健康的川哥是近年來最棒的中外然而在膝蓋手術之後 (據說是骨頭小裂痕? 但也許只不過是膝關節鏡的問題) 上季他的速度掉了不再像以前那樣機伶的偷壘大概說明了膝傷惡化的狀況 However, the bigger reason to wonder about his speed is because of the runs he saves in the field. As spacious as Citi Field's outfield is and with Bay and Francoeur totemically manning left and right field, Beltran's leatherwork is invaluable. A lost step in either direction could see many more doubles for opposing hitters. 有關速度更重要的是守備時他能守幾分你也知道花旗球場有多難守貝爺跟粉庫這兩個立牌恐怕擋不住...川哥的頂級身手更形重要追球差一步可能會把很多一安變二安.... Angel Pagan should see the lion's share of playing time in center until Beltran returns (at the earliest in mid-May). With a UZR of 5.8 and a batting average of .306 last season, Pagan won't be a precipitous drop-off for the Mets on the field or getting on base (though Beltran is much better at drawing walks). Of course, if for some terrible reason the Mets choose to play Gary Matthews Jr., then there will be calamity in center. Angel Pagan會在川哥回來(最早是五月中)之前擋中外去年他UZR5.8 AVG.306 讓今年開季應該不會那麼慘 (雖然川哥更會選保送啦) 當然要是不幸得用上GMJ的話那就真的是慘案一件了 The Mets won't be able to replace Beltran's power from the center field spot, though. There has been some chatter in the ether forecasting a fall in Beltran's power. Even THT's own projection, Oliver, barely has him breaking 20 home runs in any season for the rest of his career. I am not so dour; I still see him staying above 25 home runs (based on a full season's number of plate appearances). The dramatic fall in his HR/FB rate in 2009 to 10.8 percent echoes the fall in 2005 from which he rebounded nicely to his more usual career levels. Even the slightest fall in power will be keenly felt, though, because of the lack of power at other spots on the field. 川哥是沒人可以取代的 ether forecasting有人說他的炮瓦已經不行了 THT的預測也...不是很友善地認為從今以後20發是極限但我沒那麼悲觀打滿全季25+應該是可以期待儘管去年的HR/FB驟降到10.8 但今年應該會像05年一樣適當的反彈不過不幸的是即使他的炮瓦只掉一點也很容易被注意到你也知道這支球隊的打線洞有多深... 2. Does it really matter who's on first? 2. 誰在一壘重要嗎? The biggest power difference between the Mets and the rest of the league will come at first base. As any fantasy player knows, first base is stuffed with power throughout the league. While the Mets had Carlos Delgado in the lineup, the team was no different. No longer—neither likely starter Daniel Murphy nor potential backups Mike Jacobs, Chris Carter and Fernando Tatis—is going to bring league average power (for a first baseman) to the plate. (Just in case you were wondering, Jacobs had a slugging percentage of only .401 last year, which is off the map for a first baseman.) 以前梅子各位置炮瓦贏人最多的就在一壘有玩FB的都知道一壘手是各隊最大支的位置當屌嘎多還在的時候梅子一壘至少有30cm 然而現在Daniel Murphy或備胎們: Mike Jacobs, Chris Carter跟Fernando Tatis 最多只有15...平均大小 (對了去年Jacobs的SLG.401 說他10公分都太抬舉他了) The Mets' hopes rest instead on either Murphy becoming a sort of Keith Hernandez-esque line drive machine or on minor leaguer Ike Davis stepping-in and winning the role and fans' hearts. Murphy does show great contact percentage, which makes up for his low walk rates, and he does hit a lot of doubles. But his groundball rate, at 40 percent, is a little uncomfortably high. 梅子只能期待Murphy跟Keith Hernandez一樣變成平飛球魔人 (譯按:20幾年前的一壘) 或是Ike Davis忽然長大飛進大聯盟一壘至少Murphy現在擊球率很好相對彌補了他保送率低的狀況他也很會打二安只可惜太常打出滾地大概四成吧 Meanwhile, Davis had a nice spring training before being sent back down to the minors for more seasoning. However, he doesn't project to be a huge power threat—the consensus seems to be an upside best of around 25 home runs in a full season at peak age. Maybe, maybe he'll out-project and hit more one day, but probably not, and almost certainly not this season. 被送回2A前 Davis在春訓中表現良好可惜的是他不太可能是個大支佬一般認為他頂多長到25+ 不過也許也許他的炮瓦會忽然長出來雖然本季不太可能... All this means that if the middle of the order batters are on base, the bottom of order is going to struggle driving them in. With three from among Castillo, Murphy, Francoeur and Barajas/Blanco at the bottom of the batting order, there won't be many repercussions from walking the fifth spot. And that's when the full lineup is healthy. With Murhpy now injured, the opening day lineup could look like: Pagan, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Francoeur, Jacobs, Cora and Barajas. 總合以上今年的中心打線上壘時後段棒次會讓球迷不太舒服 Castillo, Murphy, Francoeur 跟 Barajas/Blanco四取三的後段棒次應該是打不出什麼東西而上述打線還得要全員健康才行現在Murphy受傷開幕戰大概長這樣:Pagan, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Francoeur, Jacobs, Cora and Barajas...像話嗎? 3. Will the starting pitching drive Mets fans to the bottle? 3. 先發們會不會讓球迷想砸東西? Johan Santana's coming back from elbow surgery but should be fine. Pray that he is because the other starters can give ulcers. Everybody's wondering if Mike Pelfrey is going to fulfill the potential that he kind of flashed in 2008. He's a riddle but he's now the team's No. 2. 勇漢快要從肘傷回來了祈禱他恢復良好因為其他人會讓你胃潰瘍大家都在想Mike Pelfrey能不能長到大家的期待如同他08年曾表現的那樣他是個謎他是我們的二號.... Behind him are John Maine and Oliver Perez, both youngish guys who've actually pitched better seasons than Pelfrey. But right now, they're even bigger enigmas. 後面的John Maine跟Oliver Perez都曾投的比Pelfrey好不過現在他們比Pelfrey更謎.... Perez's Jekyll and Hyde routine is well known and he's shown no sign of righting himself this spring. Maine is a more recent member of the asylum. Last year, even when healthy, he was hugely inconsistent. In no start did he go more than seven innings. Out of his 15 starts, he gave up at least five runs five times, but also gave up fewer than two runs in seven starts. Both on the mound and off, he rarely seems to be happy with the way he pitches. 大家都知道Perez的 "Jekyll and Hyde routine"(譯按:不好意思只查到那是個音樂劇) 而看來今年春天這玩意沒有讓他特別進入狀況 Maine則是個龍發堂堂主他大起大落的表現:沒一次先發撐超過七局 15次先發中有5次掉超過五分但也有7次只掉2分以下而已但Maine不管在場上場下看起來都不喜歡自己投球的樣子... All this means that Jonathon Niese, who just a week ago was still battling for a spot on the major league roster, is now being fitted for the third spot in the rotation (not that the order of the rotation is all that important). Niese might actually be able to deliver on that spot, though he might also struggle, much as Pelfrey did (and still does). Maine and, especially, Perez, have the talent to be middle of the rotation pitchers. So, as an upside, the team might have an above average rotation behind Santana. More likely, though, is that team gets subpar contributions from at least one, probably two or three and possibly all four pitchers. 上述代表著Jonathon Niese 一個上星期還在為進入輪值努力的咖可能會成為三號... (這不代表輪值順序有多重要) 他大概能表現還行但也可能很掙扎就跟Pelfrey一樣 Maine跟Perez都有不錯的天份是中段輪值的等級所以從好的一面來說山大王之後梅子擁有全中段等級的後段輪值但不好的那面則是山大王以外恐怕無法都真正投出像樣的成績 4. "Should I buy my playoff tickets yet?" 4. 我該先預購季後賽門票嗎? (譯按:幽默) Um, no. If this were the NHL or NBA, where eight teams from each league get into the postseason, then maybe. 呃還是別吧我們又不像NHL或NBA那樣一半的球隊都能進季後....(譯按:中肯) The management and even some members of the media would have us focus on what MIGHT happen. Certainly, the Mets might make the playoffs; odder things have happened. They have a quartet of players, who, if healthy, offer a more than solid foundation to build a playoff or even championship team. Adding Bay into that mix does not hurt. 球隊管理階層跟媒體希望我們懷抱希望當然梅子是有希望啦奇蹟總是有可能發生至少梅子有四五個球員健康的時候有季後賽甚至是冠軍隊等級再加一個貝總是更有機會 But the Mets aren't likely to make the playoffs. I can think of at least as many scenarios that would have them finish below .500 as above it: Beltran doesn't make it back as or when expected. Same for Reyes. Wright's power doesn't return to normal. All would be mortal blows to the season. These are just the things that went wrong last season that have to revert to normal; it doesn't count the things that could go wrong this year that were normal last year—like, say, if Francisco Rodriguez gets injured. 但梅子不太可能進的我可以想像很多梅子破不了五成的狀態: 川哥或Reyes回不來 Wright炮瓦一去不返這些都會讓梅子爆炸這些不過是去年的降頭而已要是今年再被釘草人.....K-Rod受傷之類的.... And that's just to make it above 81 wins. To get into the playoffs, the Mets'll probably need 14-15 wins from at least one of their non-Santana pitchers and at least 10-11 from still two more. They'll need one and more likely two among Castillo, Francoeur and Murphy to be positive offensively. And the rest of the bullpen will need to be helpful as well. Basic probability tells us that it is very unlikely that enough of these come true for the Mets to put champagne on ice. 而即使都沒人受傷也不過代表破五成而已要進季後賽代表除了山大王以外有個先發要拿14~15勝而另兩個要拿10~11勝梅子需要打線的暴走支援比如卡司題粉庫或是 Murphy 同時牛棚也不能出太多包基本的機率計算告訴我們上述很難同時為真開香檳實在只是個夢.... 5. When will Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel get their first unemployment checks? 5. Omar Minaya跟Jerry Manuel什麼時候會拿到失業給付? Of course, it'll all depend on the team's performance. But chances are they are fired when it becomes clear that the team isn't playoff bound, and deservedly so. Manuel seems to have no vision for the team, no theory on baseball to be held and hold himself accountable to. He's a dabbler who repeats his past mistakes and abandons experiments whimsically. 當然這得看球隊的表現但只要確定不會進季後賽他們就得開始找第二春了當然這是他們應得的 Manuel一點遠見也沒有半瓶水又不停幽默地重蹈覆轍 Minaya seems to have marginally more focus. Of course, the contracts he's given to Castillo and Perez are disasters that have handcuffed the team. He's shown himself capable of signing other, more productive talent as long as he pays top dollar. His trade for Santana has worked out well. Minaya則勉強知道重點當然他給卡司題跟Perez的合約很幽默但至少他能簽下一些像樣的合約之前的山塔那交易還不賴啦 It is usual PR shtick to focus on possibilities, instead of probabilities when talking with the media—like how Francoeur might maintain the production he gave the team for half a season last year. The problem is that Minaya might be drinking his own Kool-Aid; he buys into the upside too much. And his little head-scratchers start to add up. Why did he trade for J.J. Putz without giving him a physical? Why did he chase Heath Bell out of town? Why sign Alex Cora to (effectively) a two-year, $2 million per year contract? Why sign Cora, or any backup shortstop, that you're uncomfortable playing if Reyes starts the season on the DL, especially when Reyes spent much of last season on the DL? Why give up anything for Matthews? 販子用點花招碰碰運氣是正常的但對媒體放話碰運氣--像期待粉庫能很有建設性那樣... Minaya是喝多了還是怎樣? 他總是抱持太好的期待又相信小惡魔的呢喃怎麼能換來丁丁撲雌卻不體檢? 怎麼能趕走Heath Bell? 幹什麼秒簽Cora 還兩年二M!? 明知道Reyes一定會進DL 幹什麼簽一個你不願意放上場的備用游擊?(就是說Cora!) 幹什麼換一個GMJ? 給他兩袋球都嫌多勒!!! Minaya seems to value intangible, unquantifiable traits. The nice thing about them from an executive's perspective is that it is hard to be held accountable for misreading them. Perhaps there are some intangibles that are genuinely valuable, but if so, Minaya's hoarding of them hasn't been reflected in the team's performance (has any team been less "clutch" in the past three or four years?). Minaya選人似乎在選無形無法量化的特質對經理來說至少沒人能怪他看錯這些部分也許這些東西在某個角度來說很重要但要是那真的很重要幹什麼這些人賣不掉又打不出個鳥來? (還有哪隊三四年來比梅子更打不出關鍵一擊的??) If there were any justice for the fans, the owners—the Wilpons—would be fired as well. I doubt that Minaya would've done better unfettered, but it is pretty clear that Jeff Wilpon was not helpful either—tales of how he was caught up in the Rasputin-like influence of the assistant GM, Tony Bernazard, seem telling. The Mets owners seem to remove problems only when the fans start to blame the ownership for them; they're never out in front of the problem. 如果有天理的話老闆們-Wilpon家族也該被砍掉雖然我不覺得Minaya沒了老闆會更好但很明顯Jeff Wilpon什麼都沒做-從他們的助理GM Tony Bernazard那副太監樣可見一斑梅子老闆只在球迷暴走時出來一下但他們根本沒有解決問題 If/when Minaya and Manuel are fired, the essential thing for the team is that the Wilpons (particularly Jeff Wilpon if he's calling the shots now) ask themselves some tough questions: "Do I (Jeff) have enough knowledge of business to help run operations at all? Do I have enough knowledge of baseball to give input on personnel decisions?" 要是Minaya跟Manuel被火之後梅子的重點在Wilpon家族(特別是主導的Jeff Wilpon) 能不能意識到幾個大問題:我到底懂不懂經營?懂不懂棒球?我到底憑什麼介入球隊運作? The team, despite its Bernie Madoff woes, will have more resources than most other teams. With any luck, the Wilpons will hire a management team that understands management and baseball, a team that uses its experiences to learn from its mistakes, uses statistics and scouting properly to inform decisions and doesn't reverse-engineer rationals for actions. Then maybe the Wilpons can start thinking of putting some champagne on ice. 這支球隊假使除去他像是詐騙集團一樣的大問題(譯按:我不知道怎麼翻這個典故) 擁有比大部分球隊更多的資源假使奇蹟似的 Wilpon家族雇了個像樣的管理團隊讓梅子從過去的錯誤中學習適當運用數據跟球探報告下決定不要讓爽感引導理性那麼也許Wilpon家族可以開始冰香檳了 Jonathan Halket is an economist in New York. 作者是紐約的經濟學家 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 70.179.13.240 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 70.179.13.240