[情報] NewYork Mets Top 20 Prospects for 2012
New York Mets Top 20 Prospects for 2012 http://ppt.cc/_cmd
1) Matt Harvey, RHP, Grade B+: He can be a number two starter and someone to
build around. Some evaluators see him more as a closer if his changeup remains
erratic, but I'm cutting him some slack on that issue and am optimistic.
2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B+: This is actually more like Harvey -A and
Wheeler 1-B. They are very close but Harvey is closer to being ready. Like
Harvey, I see Wheeler as a future number two starter and staff anchor. He made
big strides with his control last year. Like Harvey his changeup needs more
work, but I'm optimistic about him given the improvements he's already made.
3) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B: Control still needs work, but took a major
step forward towards harnessing his stuff. Could be a number three starter,
perhaps more with additional changeup refinement. Could also end up as a fine
closer.
4) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B: Borderline B-. One of my favorite players from
the 2011 draft. Strong tools, skills are more refined than you think given his
Wyoming background. There's some risk here but lots of upside too.
5) Cesar Puello, OF, Grade B-: Tough to grade and I'm not really comfortable
with this guy. Tools are very impressive and he started tapping into his power.
However his strike zone judgment slipped badly, with a dramatic reduction in
his walk rate and increase in strikeouts. Power improvement was cancelled out
by loss of OBP, and Double-A pitchers will easily exploit his
over-aggressiveness. However, many scouts really like him and think he's going
to break through, plus he was just 20 last year. Upside is very high but risk
of failure is quite high as well.
6) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Grade B-: Positives here are solid tools, high walk
rate, moderate power (secondary average skills). Weaknesses include high
strikeout rate and inability to hit left-handed pitching. I've seen him
compared to Brett Jackson but Jackson is a better athlete and younger. Kirk
looks like a very solid platoon player/fourth outfielder to me. Doesn't have
Puello's ceiling but a much higher floor. I've gone back and forth about 10
times between Kirk and Cesar in the 5/6 spots.
7) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B-: Waiting on Tommy John recovery at this point.
I've liked him for awhile but he was handled badly by previous administration
and it is still unclear if he's a starter or reliever going forward.
8) Reese Havens, 2B, Grade B-: Borderline C+. I like his power/patience
combination and ability to handle second base, but his health care expenses
have helped bankrupt the organization. If he manages to avoid injuries he can
be a .260 hitter with 15 homers and a fine OBP.
9) Wilmer Flores, 3B-SS, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Still very young at age 20.
Switch over to third base increases pressure on his bat. Will he develop
sufficient power for that position? He keeps his strikeout rate low but power
hasn't blossomed as Mets hoped, granted he was promoted aggressively. Stock is
starting to sag but it isn't too late yet.
10) Cory Mazzoni, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-: North Carolina State product
has sound combination of solid stuff and command. I don't think he got as much
attention as he deserved in pitching-rich 2011 draft class and I expect good
things from him.
11) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Grade C+: Live-armed Oklahoma high school kid, upside
of a number two or three starter, but rather raw. Ceiling higher than Mazzoni
but risk of failure is higher as well.
12) Jordan Valdespin, 2B-SS, Grade C+: Will probably rank higher on other
lists. Tools and athleticism stand out, developed more power this year, but
high-maintenance mercurial personality and sloppy strike zone judgment make me
wary that he'll fulfill his potential.
13) Phillip Evans, 2B-SS, Grade C+: Overslot $650,000 bonus for 15th round pick
could end up being a bargain if Evans develops as I expect...above-average
hitter with some pop and solid glovework at second. Excellent makeup. Need more
data, could be much higher next year.
14) Cory Vaughn, OF, Grade C+: Slump in High-A could be related to painful heel
injury. I like his tools and he's flashed the skills to make them meaningful.
Stock could be considerably higher next year. . .or considerably lower.
15) Darin Gorski, LHP, Grade C+: Excellent statistics in High-A Florida State
League (2.08 ERA, 140/29 K/BB) generated by superior command of average
fastball and off-speed stuff, refined changeup. Needs to duplicate this in
Double-A.
16) Collin McHugh, RHP, Grade C+: McHugh broke out with impressive Double-A
season. Average velocity for right-hander but works lower part of the strike
zone well, nice assortment of secondary pitches, makeup well-regarded. Could be
a fifth starter or long reliever.
17) Domingo Tapia, RHP, Grade C+: Earned some headlines with 99 MPH fastball
but struck out just 30 in 50 innings in Appalachian League. High ceiling but
needs a lot of work on his secondary pitches.
18) Akeel Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Teammate of Tapia at Kingsport, doesn't throw
quite as hard, "just" in the low-to-mid-90s, but secondary stuff is in better
shape. Fanned 61 in 51 innings and gave up just 30 hits, but wobbly command led
to 38 walks. High ceiling.
19) Danny Muno, SS, Grade C+: Senior out of Fresno State led New York-Penn
League in OBP, impressed observers with steady play and makeup. May end up as a
utility player but a good one, could get beyond that if he keeps hitting at
higher levels.
20) Juan Lagares, OF, Grade C+: Quick bat, improved plate discipline from
abysmally awful to merely poor and hit .349/.383/.500 as a result between
High-A and Double-A. This was at least partially driven by unsustainable BABIP
gains, and I want to see more before buying into him.
21) Logan Verrett, RHP, Grade C+: College pitcher out of Baylor has yet to make
pro debut. I saw him pitch in college and I think he has the stuff and command
to be a number four starter.
OTHERS: Robert Carson, LHP; Darrell Ceciliani, OF; Albert Cordero, C; Matt den
Dekker, OF; Josh Edgin, LHP; Erik Goeddel, RHP; Gilbert Gomez, OF; Chase
Huchingson, LHP; Jack Leathersich, LHP; Zach Lutz, 3B; Brad Marquez, OF; Jefry
Marte, 3B; Rafael Montero, RHP; Greg Peavey, RHP; Tyler Pill, RHP; Aderlin
Rodriguez, 3B; Armando Rodriguez, RHP; Josh Satin, UT; Chris Schwinden, RHP;
Juan Urbina, LHP; Taylor Whitenton, RHP.
The Mets farm system has improved and I don't think it gets enough respect.
There are some problems that have to be addressed, but they have some strengths
as well. The organization is still suffering hangover from the way prospects
were managed in the previous administration, but things are looking up.
The entire second half of this list is very fluid. You could make a case to
rank Juan Lagares, number 20, as high as 11 or 12. Even spots five through 10
are difficult to rank. How do you weight injury guys like Mejia or Havens in
comparison to high-risk-high-upside tools guys like Puello and Flores? It is
all a balancing act and every analyst is going to come to a different
conclusion.
I like the pitching. Harvey, Wheeler, and Familia are three hard-throwing
right-handers with the ability to be staff anchors. The first two aren't far
off the A- category, and Familia is a fine prospect in his own right. It may be
tempting to rush Harvey and Familia to the majors sometime in 2012, but I think
both will be better-positioned to help in 2013. Mejia is something of a
forgotten man but I liked him a lot before he got hurt, despite the ridiculous
way he was handled in '10.
There are more right-handed arms coming up behind them. Mazzoni, Fulmer, and
Verrett from the 2011 draft bring a nice variety of upside and command. Tapia
and Morris from Kingsport have very live arms. There are several
average-stuff-inning-eater types with McHugh and Chris Schwinden possibly
contributing in '12. Whitenton is interesting too but we need to see him at
higher levels. Efforts of the previous administration to find talent at smaller
colleges didn't bring in any stars, but you need organization arms too and
sometimes those guys become real prospects, which a few have in this case.
Left-hander Juan Urbina in the C-category is highly-projectable and picked up
velocity this year, although this wasn't reflected in his performance. Darin
Gorski was excellent at St. Lucie but we need to see if he can avoid being the
next Mark Cohoon. Edgin, Huchingson, and Leatherisch all have southpaw bullpen
potential.
Hitting is in tougher condition than the pitching. There are several very high
upside players. There is some "shiny new toy" hope regarding Nimmo, but while
his selection has been questioned by some, I like him. Products of the Latin
American program like Puello, Flores, Valdespin (and Aderlin Rodriguez and
Gilbert Gomez) have high upside but have yet to fulfill their potential, with
strike zone issues being a persistent theme. Gomez had a nice run at St. Lucie
but it was 75 at-bat sample and out of context with the rest of his career. I
want to see more.
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