[新聞] Either feast or famine in Bombers playoff chase

看板NY-Yankees作者leddy (耿秋)時間17年前 (2007/08/29 00:43)推噓19(19推 0噓 1→)

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Either feast or famine in Bombers playoff chase 重點: 洋基的未來還在希望與絕望中擺盪 1. 想到洋基隊季後賽連八字都還沒一撇, 洋基球迷的心就在希望與絕望中搖擺。這情況因洋基以16比0輸給老虎後情況更是惡化, 洋基已經落後襪子八場勝差。與紅襪三場的系列就跟古早以前1978年洋基落後紅襪時, 遇到紅襪的遭遇戰的氣氛相當類似。不同的是, 洋基還有希望進到季後賽--不只在東區(雖然贏到東區冠軍可能要演一場夢幻秀), 還有外卡的爭奪戰, 還好不會演出從1993年以來首次這麼早回家吃自己。 2. 冷靜的想想, 洋基從明星賽後已經得到這麼多分了啊! 但是大聯盟的主管人員仍然說紅襪是美聯球隊裡最均衡的隊伍。假如歷史告訴我們十月份季後賽的任何教訓的話, 那就是純粹的沒有頭腦的力量(純粹的火力放送)總是會自毀長城。遲早洋基必須贏一場低分的比賽; 那可能就發生在這一週裡。(但洋基投手...尤其牛棚...) 3. 當然, 有著希望(沒有任何一支球隊有比洋基更恐怖的打線), 但也有很多理由令人感到不安(紅襪九月的賽程遇到的大多是可以輕鬆拿分的球隊)。所以洋基還是準備好恐怖地/令人振奮地繼續得分吧! 最後的結果將決定2008年老托還有沒有工作。 4. 希望: 從紅襪六月底最後一次遭遇洋基以後, 洋基每場比賽平均得6.4分, 有嚇死人的 0.305的打擊率。這種得分的累積不僅是驚人的, 同時也接近歷史紀錄。洋基炸彈隊可能會變成史上第三個在一季中得到1000分的球隊, 這是紅襪對洋基隊感到憂慮的唯一理由。洋基實際上在美聯所有的攻擊紀錄都是領先, 包括得分, 全壘打, 長打率及攻擊指數(上壘率加長打率)。絕望: 假如你想到東區攻頂的魔術數字是95勝, 那紅襪實際上可以說已經拿到。實際上在後面的比賽紅襪甚至不用贏五成以上, 他們只要在後面31場比賽拿到15勝16敗就足夠了, 洋基則必須贏七成才可能達成。而且請記得, 襪子最後一個月是可以輕鬆打的賽程: 31場比賽有18場在主場比賽, 18場裡又有13場遇到魔鬼魚和金鶯。(金鶯不是專吃紅襪嗎?...希望可以) 5. 希望: 洋基在紅襪的系列戰將排出他們最好的三個投手: Pettitte, 老克和小王。假如他們沒法用這三巨投打敗襪子, 那2007年大概也沒什麼好打的了。洋基在客場打得有點糟是31勝35敗, 但他們在主場打得嚇嚇叫是41勝24敗。主場的勝率贏過東區任何一隻球隊。絕望: 襪子並不特別怕離開芬威球場的比賽, 他們客場的成績是40勝28敗, 包括上週對白襪的四場大屠殺, 他們在這個系列戰得分遠遠超過對手, 比分是46比7。而且紅襪同樣在對上洋基時將排出他們最佳的三大武器: 松阪大輔, Beckett, 席林。 6. 希望: Mussina本週將不會再出賽(喂, 總算有些價值吧!)(也酸得太離譜了吧!), 但張伯倫一定可以出賽。就等襪子嚐嚐很晚才變化的滑球的味道吧, 這是一個美聯GM 在某天原本提到的事。21歲的張伯倫目前是別人幾乎球皮都摸不到的, 這傳說會持續下去。上週在洋基球場, 金鶯隊的Kevin Millar說: "我對上張伯倫的策略是不去打他的滑球。" 每個打者走到本壘板都有同樣的想法。但麻煩的是, 張伯倫丟這球用很多揮臂的速度, 不可能查覺出他的球路。球看起來就像快速球, 等到發現時都太晚了。等到打者準備打時, 那球已經掉了有一呎。絕望: 假如張伯倫第一場比賽解決兩到三個重要的出局數, 他第二場就沒法出賽。那是用他的使用說明書, 相當僵化無法改變。很難相信總經理現金人, 他對張伯倫設了這種封印條款, 這會使得洋基最好的後援投手坐在牛棚裡看著冠軍賽的機會從身邊溜走(這話講得還蠻鄉民化的)。洋基應該不會有仇到讓35歲的Pettitte投120以上的球, 然後兩天後又要他後援上場(這不是牛棚日上場嗎?)。但本季都這樣搞過兩次, 那用心照顧一個比Pettite漢草還好還要強悍的小朋友的道理在那裡呢? (這說得有點鄉民, 張伯倫若要這麼操, 明年大概..., 但這緊要時刻, 什麼事不會發生呢?唉! 今年少個像去年的天天P實在差蠻多的) 7. 希望: 洋基知道如何火力放射; 他們已經在得分上遠超過對手, 得失分比是775分比 634分。只有紅襪有比較好的得失分差, 假如洋基無法抓到襪子, 在外卡可預期機會很大; 洋基在紙上的成績是比水手或老虎都還要好的球隊。而且下週洋基將在主場和水手最後遭遇一決雌雄, 對洋基是另一個利多。絕望: 洋基在一分差的比賽只有11勝17敗。水手是21勝17敗, 老虎22勝15敗。問題出在牛棚, 洋基牛棚已經搞砸17場比賽的救援機會。但這些不正常的數字是出現在Joba 還未上場前的黑暗時期。洋基現在有像紅襪一樣可靠的後面局數的守成能力, 假定他來得還沒太晚(但最近還是守到最後搞走了兩勝)。仍然, 最緊迫的問題是洋基沒法守成, 難以保住他們的攻擊力打下的基礎。最後一次洋基贏了一場得少於5分的比賽要回溯到7月17日。(有沒有洋基得少分就贏不了的八卦????) 已經有很久的時間沒有看到洋基打出巧妙, 投得好, 完全用防守取勝的比賽了。說起久遠記憶, 常常是今天全壘打火力放射在"體育中心"撥放看來很爽, 但對他們而言, 卻可能會有一個寂寞的10月。洋基正在學到這痛苦的教訓的邊緣上。(今年真得好多場低比分延長到最後結果都輸掉..., 唉...) Tuesday, August 28, 2007 By BOB KLAPISCH RECORD COLUMNIST You drift between hope and despair, figuring the Yankees' path to the postseason lies somewhere in between. The situation has deteriorated rapidly following Monday's devastating 16-0 loss to the Tigers that dropped the Yankees eight games out of first place. The three-game series with the Red Sox has long since lost its 1978-like comeback vibe. Instead, the Yankees are hoping to stay alive -- not just in the East (that's all but a fantasy now), but in the wild-card race, and not be sent home early for the first time since 1993. It's a sobering thought, considering how many runs the Bombers have scored since the All-Star break. But major league executives still say the Red Sox have the most balanced team in the American League. If history has taught us anything about October baseball, it's that pure, mindless muscle always self-destructs. Sooner or later the Yankees will have to win a low-scoring game; it just might have to be this week. Of course there's hope (no one has a more dangerous lineup than the Yankees), but plenty of reasons to sweat, too (the Red Sox' September schedule is a layup). So get ready for a terrifying/exhilarating stretch run. How it all ends could determine whether Joe Torre has a job in 2008. HOPE: The Yankees have averaged 6.4 runs per game since the last time the Red Sox saw them in early June, with an incredible .305 average. The accumulation of runs isn't just breathtaking, it's close to historic. The Bombers may become only the third team in history to score 1,000 runs in a season, which is reason enough for the Sox to worry about them. The Yankees lead the American League in virtually every offensive category, including runs, home runs, slugging percentage and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage). DESPAIR: If you consider 95 wins as the magic number in the East, the Red Sox are practically there. In fact, they don't even have to play .500 ball the rest of the way; a mere 15-16 in the last 31 games will be enough. The Yankees, meanwhile, will have to play .700 ball just to match that. And remember, the Sox are looking at a soft final month: 18 of their final 31 games will be played at home, 13 of them against the Devil Rays and Orioles. HOPE: The Yankees have their three best pitchers lined up for the Boston series: Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens and Chien-Ming Wang. If they can't beat the Sox with this trio, it's just not meant to be in 2007. The Bombers have had their problems on the road (31-35), but they clearly feed off the energy in the Stadium, where they're 41-24. That's more home victories than any other team in the East. DESPAIR: The Sox aren't particularly worried about being away from Fenway. They're 40-28 on the road, including last weekend's four-game massacre of the White Sox, whom they outscored, 46-7, in the series. And Boston has its best weapons all pointed in the same direction, too: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling. HOPE: Mike Mussina won't get anywhere near the action this week (hey, that has to count for something), while Joba Chamberlain surely will. Just wait until the Sox get a taste of that late-breaking slider, is what one AL general manager essentially said the other day. The 21-year-old Chamberlain has been unhittable so far, and the word is spreading. Last week at the Stadium, the Orioles' Kevin Millar said, "My plan [against Chamberlain] is don't swing at the slider." Hitters everywhere go up to the plate with the same intention. Trouble is, Chamberlain delivers the pitch with so much arm-speed, the spin on the seams becomes impossible to detect. It looks like a fastball until it's too late. By the time hitters commit, the ball already has dropped a foot. DESPAIR: If Chamberlain picks up two or three critical outs tonight, he's cooked for Wednesday. Those are the rules, as rigid and suffocating as they may be. It's hard to believe general manager Brian Cashman – who devised the terms of Chamberlain's imprisonment – will let the pennant slip away while his best reliever is sitting in the bullpen. One Yankee noted without rancor that no one seems to have a problem with letting 35-year-old Andy Pettitte go 120-plus pitches and come back in relief two days later. It's happened twice this season, so where's the logic in coddling a kid who's bigger and stronger than Pettitte? HOPE: The Yankees know how to pour it on; they've outscored their opponents, 775-634. Only the Red have a better run-differential. If the Bombers can't catch the Sox, that should bode well for the wild-card race; they are a better team on paper than either the Mariners or Tigers. And next week's showdown with Seattle will be played in the Bronx, another bonus for the Bombers. DESPAIR: The Bombers are just 11-17 in one-run games. The Mariners are 21-17, the Tigers 22-15. The problem rests with the bullpen, which has blown 17 saves. But those abysmal numbers were borne of the pre-Joba dark age. The Yankees now have a late-inning recipe as dependable as Boston's, assuming it isn't too late to matter. Still, the most compelling red flag is the Yankees' inability to prevail without crushing their opponents back to the stone age: The last time the Yankees won a game when they scored fewer than five runs was July 17. It's been a long time since the Yankees played intelligent, well-pitched, defense-oriented baseball. Talk about distant memories. Today's home run orgies look great on "SportsCenter,'' but, on their own, they can make for a lonely October. The Yankees are on the verge of learning that lesson the hard way. E-mail: klapisch@northjersey.com -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.132.198.21 ※ 編輯: leddy 來自: 220.132.198.21 (08/29 00:46)

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KVL

08/29 00:47, , 1^F

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cutedesert

08/29 00:48, , 2^F

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※ 編輯: leddy 來自: 220.132.198.21 (08/29 00:51)

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dick0631

08/29 00:51, , 3^F