[blog] James: Yanks lacking in young talent

看板NY-Yankees作者 (耿秋)時間17年前 (2008/10/23 16:55), 編輯推噓25(25018)
留言43則, 16人參與, 最新討論串1/1
source: riveraveblues.com James: Yanks lacking in young talent Posted by: Ben K. in Analysis In advance of the release of The Bill James Handbook 2009, the venerable baseball analysts has released his list of the top young talent in baseball. James has also put forward a ranking of the Major League clubs by top young Major League talent, and the Yankees aren’t looking so hot with the team ranked 29 out of 30. According to ACTA Sports, publishers of the Handbook, these rankings include players 30 and younger: "To achieve his inventory, James first eliminates from the list all players who were 30 years old or older in 2008. He employs two widely used statistics —'Runs Created' for position players and 'Runs Allowed' for pitchers—as the basis for comparison. He makes several adjustments, including for injuries suffered during the year and the differences in predictability between pitchers and position players, and then takes into account the number of years the player should be at his peak performance." Of course, it doesn’t take a baseball genius to recognize the Yankees’ young-gun problems. Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano turned in disappointing 2008 campaigns; Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy didn’t meet the lofty expectations placed upon them; and even Joba Chamberlain suffered a lengthy stay on the disabled list. As the Yankees head into free agency, this list should be a part of their considerations. Five of the top 15 and three of the top ten youngest teams made the playoffs this year, and if the Yanks don’t get marked older, they’ ll suffer through some pretty bad seasons over the next few years. The full franchise rankings and James’ top 25 young players are after the jump. 1. Minnesota Twins 2. Arizona Diamondbacks 3. Tampa Bay Rays 4. Florida Marlins 5. Kansas City Royals 6. Milwaukee Brewers 7. Cleveland Indians 8. Colorado Rockies 9. Atlanta Braves 10. Boston Red Sox 11. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 12. Oakland A’s 13. Los Angeles Dodgers 14. St. Louis Cardinals 15. Cincinnati Reds 16. New York Mets 17. Pittsburgh Pirates 18. Seattle Mariners 19. Texas Rangers 20. Philadelphia Phillies 21. San Diego Padres 22. San Francisco Giants 23. Washington Nationals 24. Baltimore Orioles 25. Chicago White Sox 26. Chicago Cubs 27. Detroit Tigers 28. Toronto Blue Jays 29. New York Yankees 30. Houston Astros 1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24 2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24 3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24 4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25 5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24 6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24 7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23 8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26 9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25 10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24 11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24 12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23 13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24 14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23 15. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22 16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24 17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22 18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23 19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26 20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24 21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25 22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24 23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25 24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25 25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.130.155.141 ※ 編輯: leddy 來自: 140.130.155.141 (10/23 17:04)

10/23 17:13, , 1F
沒想到我們只贏太色人農場沙漠...農場都沒什麼人了= =
10/23 17:13, 1F

10/23 17:15, , 2F
這跟農場關係不大,紐約老人隊!!!
10/23 17:15, 2F

10/23 17:17, , 3F
看起來真的很冏。之前不是有說投手的部分還不差嗎?
10/23 17:17, 3F

10/23 17:18, , 4F
這又不是看農場,是看25人名單中under 30的天份
10/23 17:18, 4F

10/23 17:19, , 5F
喔。是這樣喔...
10/23 17:19, 5F

10/23 17:19, , 6F
美東有3之球隊都在20名以後大家都愛老人嗎= =
10/23 17:19, 6F

10/23 17:42, , 7F
Hank:老子有錢 等你練好我再簽你 我沒時間等你!!
10/23 17:42, 7F

10/23 19:11, , 8F
哀,之前還再說沒有三十三,沒敢去舊金山,現在........
10/23 19:11, 8F

10/23 20:10, , 9F
幾年前農場乾枯的後果吧
10/23 20:10, 9F

10/23 20:18, , 10F
甚麼鳥評價~連Pujous都沒有...
10/23 20:18, 10F

10/23 20:19, , 11F
Pujols 28歲了,而且你連名字都打錯- -
10/23 20:19, 11F

10/23 20:20, , 12F
仔細看就會知道這個人說的是30以下其實不怎麼排
10/23 20:20, 12F

10/23 20:21, , 13F
改成25以下比較不會有爭議
10/23 20:21, 13F

10/23 20:53, , 14F
可是套用他的公式 還是有機會出現25歲以上的人在榜上阿
10/23 20:53, 14F

10/23 20:55, , 15F
像K-Rod跟A-Gon不就是嗎
10/23 20:55, 15F

10/23 20:57, , 16F
K-Rod和A-Gon都也才超過25一點
10/23 20:57, 16F

10/23 20:58, , 17F
以33歲來分的話 Pujols的分數只能*5 他們可以*7
10/23 20:58, 17F

10/23 20:58, , 18F
嗯,也是
10/23 20:58, 18F

10/23 21:01, , 19F
不過萬一有人乘*1還能上榜(雖說不可能) 加年齡限制不就囧了
10/23 21:01, 19F

10/23 21:03, , 20F
*1的話那他已經32了 我們通常不會叫32的人年輕球員
10/23 21:03, 20F

10/23 21:04, , 21F
是沒錯...可是排名不是按照公式排的嗎
10/23 21:04, 21F

10/23 21:05, , 22F
其實你一開始假設*1就不成立了 因為只排30歲以下
10/23 21:05, 22F

10/23 21:06, , 23F
這個模型是在看一個球員的"未來發展性" 29歲的人可能
10/23 21:06, 23F

10/23 21:07, , 24F
有超人的累積成績 但是他已經29 A/E期也老早過了
10/23 21:07, 24F

10/23 21:08, , 25F
如果今天是比"最強的30歲以下球員"那又是另回事
10/23 21:08, 25F

10/23 21:08, , 26F
Pujols*5都不能上榜了,去談那個*1的做啥啊.......
10/23 21:08, 26F

10/23 21:14, , 27F
去年Melky:Grade A Ethier:B 排名參考一下就好了
10/23 21:14, 27F

10/23 21:34, , 28F
Cabrera會輸Adrian Gonzalez嗎? 該不會連體重問題都計算了
10/23 21:34, 28F

10/23 23:20, , 29F
30歲以上就事先拿掉了..不會有*1的問題
10/23 23:20, 29F

10/23 23:38, , 30F
去年RC Melky:73, Ethier:70, Melky又比Ethier小一歲
10/23 23:38, 30F

10/23 23:40, , 31F
你要用今年的成績質疑James算得有問題嗎?
10/23 23:40, 31F

10/23 23:41, , 32F
用明朝的劍斬清朝的官....你分明是反清復明...
10/23 23:41, 32F

10/23 23:45, , 33F
XD
10/23 23:45, 33F

10/23 23:46, , 34F
更正應該是小兩歲
10/23 23:46, 34F

10/24 00:25, , 35F
Kemp的排名有點高,Longoria有點低。Gonzalez不管怎麼看
10/24 00:25, 35F

10/24 00:26, , 36F
都贏不了Cabrera耶,何況照上面說的算法卡布是*8 岡薩*7
10/24 00:26, 36F

10/24 00:29, , 37F
B.J. Upton沒進榜也滿怪的 年齡和去年成績看起來他應進
10/24 00:29, 37F

10/24 00:35, , 38F
Upton去年RC95排名第27, 今年RC剩88你覺得該排第幾..
10/24 00:35, 38F

10/24 00:39, , 39F
Kemp今年也不比Upton高多少阿,95/89,Upton還年輕一歲
10/24 00:39, 39F

10/24 00:40, , 40F
然後一個第七;一個沒進。不會差太多嗎?
10/24 00:40, 40F

10/24 00:40, , 41F
看錯= = 年紀一樣
10/24 00:40, 41F

10/24 00:41, , 42F
詳細公式去MLB板看.人家還有參考速度和母隊的得分能力.
10/24 00:41, 42F

10/24 12:54, , 43F
所以就說參考一下就好了 不看選手的天份直接拿表現來用=.=
10/24 12:54, 43F
文章代碼(AID): #1903m9Zp (NY-Yankees)
文章代碼(AID): #1903m9Zp (NY-Yankees)