[新聞] A.J. to N.Y.

看板NY-Yankees作者pikachu123 (pika)時間17年前 (2008/12/14 12:28)推噓9(9推 0噓 3→)

留言12則, 9人參與討論串1/1

來看看FanGraphs 的David Golebiewski怎麼說巴 The New York Yankees made their second splashy, long-term commitment to a top-of-the-rotation starter yesterday, inking righty A.J. Burnett to a five-year,$82.5 million deal (which, by the way, Dave Cameron absolutely nailed in Burnett's Free Agent Value piece). 洋基與AJB同意了一只82.5M/5Y的合約 It’s virtually impossible to predict with any degree of certainty how those mega-deals will play out in the long run, given the injury and attrition risks associated with pitchers. However, the Yankees are at the top of the revenue curve , and each additional win added to the club’s roster brings them significantly closer to a playoff appearance. With CC and A.J. now headed to the Bronx, the AL East boasts three absolutely terrifying rotations in Tampa, Boston and New York.somewhere, a Blue Jays fan is weeping. 然而無法預測這些百萬合約的投手能堅持下去,因為他們是痛痛人,但Yankkes is A Evil Empire!!多的每一勝都可以讓Yankees更靠近季後賽,現在帝國有了CC跟AJB. 將與肥襪跟光芒有著豪洨的輪值,藍鳥球迷只能哭哭了 Using a mid-90’s fastball and a devastating curveball, Burnett has the repertoire to dominate. Few pitchers possess as much movement on their curve as A.J., whose power breaker has over six inches of horizontal and vertical break. In other words, it has more side-to-side motion than most sliders, while simultaneously “dropping” in the zone more than most 12-to-6 curves. Burnett’s 76.2 Contact% ranked 6th among all starters and is a testament to the quality of his stuff. Burnett有著mid-90的球速,跟很威的曲球,有他的曲球有著比滑球還大的水平位移掉的幅度也比12-6的曲球大,他有著76.2 Contact%在所有SP中排名第6(表示揮空率很高) If only the conversation could end there. 32 in January, Burnett might as well come with an “if healthy” sign plastered to his forehead, as that qualifier has been and will continue to be attached to him. His injury history is too lengthy to list here, but elbow soreness (2006) and shoulder pain (2007) are the latest ailments to sideline the 6-5, 230 pounder. 他實在是痛痛人,2006手肘痛,2007肩膀痛(還真痛) Burnett has a long track record of missing bats, getting grounders and showing average control, and all three of those trends continued in 2008. While Burnett’s ERA rose from 3.75 in 2007 to 4.07 in 2008, that was more the product of an unusually high .328 BABIP (especially strange, given Toront's slick fielding). His Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) actually dropped from 4.33 in 2007 to 3.45 this past year, but very little changed in his controllable skills. Rather, his sky-high 17.7 HR/FB rate from ‘07 regressed to a more average 9.6% this past season. Burnett三振率很高並且是滾地球投手,他的控球普普.直到2008也是這樣,他的ERA在07 年是3.75到了08年是4.07,他有著很高的BABIP但藍鳥守備明明就很好怎麼會這樣?,他的FIP 從07年的4.33到3.45,但有一點小小的改變,他在2007有著很高的HR/FB比約17.7%,到了2008 卻降到9.6%差不多在平均左右 Burnett’s peripherals remain very strong, as he punched out 9.39 batters per nine innings and walked 3.5, generating grounders at a 48.5% clip. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times (which evaluates pitchers based on strikeouts walks and a “normalized” HR rate), we find that Burnett’s last two campaigns were essentially of the same quality, with XFIP’s of 3.70 and 3.65. Burnett的K/9是9.39 BB/9是3.5.有著48.5%的滾地球,根據THT的數據他的XFIP 07 08年分別是 3.70 跟3.65 Despite the rather smooth glovework done by the Blue Jays overall (+19 as a team in UZR, 3rd in Defensive Efficiency), Burnett had pretty poor luck on balls put in play. As previously mentioned when discussing Andy Pettitte, the Yankee gloves were less than ideal in ‘08, with -39.4 UZR and a 25th-place finish in Defensive Efficiency. However, two of the team's biggest culprits, Bobby Abreu (-25.2 UZR) and Jason Giambi (-1.8 UZR), appear unlikely to return, which should help matters. In addition, the rumored Melky Cabrera-for-Mike Cameron swap would improve things, as the soon-to-be 36 year-old Cameron can still run ‘em down (9.7 UZR). 儘管藍鳥守備很好(UZR +19 全聯盟第3),Burnett實在有夠雖(Pettitte:哭哭).不過 Yankees守備實在有夠糟,08年URZ-39.4,隨著2個貢獻良多的Abreu(UZR -25.2)跟Giambi (UZR -1.8)走了加上如果Cameron來了(UZR 9.7 in 08)守備應該會好點 A groundball pitcher like Burnett will surely want to see better work f rom Robinson Cano, who was a plus defender in ‘07 (8.1 UZR) but had a rough go of it in 2008 (-7.3 UZR). Derek Jeter had one of his better fielding years in 2008, but he still only managed to post a -0.4 UZR. The previous year he was at -18.4, and he’s been in the red every year we have UZR data going back to 2002. 向AJB這樣的滾地球投手應該希望Cano能在防守表現得更好,07年UZR 8.1 08年卻掉到 -7.3.而Jeter呢,08年防守居然變好了,UZR有-0.4(那嘸可能) While Burnett is an extremely talented hurler, his durability remains the great unknown. Burnett tossed a career-high 221.1 IP in 2008, and he didn’t experience health problems during the course of the season. However, the other two seasons in which Burnett crossed the 200-inning threshold both came with consequences. In 2002 as a Marlin, he tossed 204.1 innings. The following year, he made just four starts before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Burnett again topped 200 innings in 2005 (209 IP). He made just 21 and 25 starts in 2006 and 2007, respectively, dealing with the aforementioned elbow and shoulder maladies. Burnett是個很有天分的投手,但他能不能持久是未知數.他08年投出creer high 的221.1IP 他今年還沒出過問題,但他第1次投超過200局是在2002年,隔年只先發4場就去動TJ了, 第2次則在2005年他投了209IP,但下一年以下下年都個只先發了21及25場(抖~~好痛) Will Burnett remain healthy and productive in the Bronx? It’s worth gambling to find out. Just don’t place too high of a wager on his dominant but oft-damaged right arm. Burnett能在Bronx持續健康並作出貢獻嗎?賭他一下確實有價值,但別期望太高他是個不輸Painvano的痛痛人 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 125.224.0.146