[洋基] 外電預測
來源網址:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8389
Prospectus Today
A Holiday Surprise
by Joe Sheehan
It's not a classic, or even a movie I would describe as one of my favorites,
but if I stumble upon Quiz Show while I'm flipping channels, I usually stay
there for a while. The movie features a great story, some fantastic
performances by the members of an ensemble cast—I'm partial to Rob Morrow as
the self-made investigator dealing with issues of class and education in his
interactions with the Van Doren family; and Paul Scofield as Mark Van Doren,
the elite, even effete, academic father of the dashing protagonist—and some
tremendous dialogue, particularly between Scofield and Ralph Fiennes as
father and son. The movie, a docudrama about the 1950s scandal in which the
game show Twenty-One, among others, was found to be rigged, with the
producers supplying answers to contestants in advance and deciding which ones
would win and for how many shows, holds up well over multiple viewings.
上半段算是引言吧，應該是講他內心的感慨XD
There's a scene in the film in which a contestant who has been told to give a
wrong answer instead supplies the correct one, foiling the plot while on live
television. Host Jack Barry, played convincingly by Christopher McDonald, is
all set to turn to the opponent to get the correct response when he catches
himself, pauses, turns, and goes back to the first contestant, asking in
disbelief if he heard correctly. You can see the wheels turning..."You
weren't supposed to say that, sir. Now what do I do?"
這段和前一段一樣，算是要切入主題前的引言。
和上一段相同，要我翻譯我也翻不出來XD
怕硬翻結果失真了......
That was me at 3 p.m. yesterday. After expecting the wrong answer for months,
I was astounded to learn that the Yankees had signed the best free agent on
the market, a player who fills a need for them and who upgrades their team on
both sides of the ball. The signing of A.J. Burnett seemed to close off the
possibility of adding Mark Teixeira, given that it was their second major
commitment to a pitcher in the previous two weeks. With $40 million per year
worth of starting pitchers in hand, a $20 million-or-more per season first
baseman didn't seem within reach. By inking Mark Teixeira to an eight-year
deal worth $180 million, the Yankees cemented their position as the game's
evil empire to the other 29 fan bases, and reaffirmed their commitment to
their own. They made a decision that might eventually cause even more
targeted rule changes, but one that is clearly the right one for their
franchise.
那是昨天下午三點。在已經預期了好幾個月的錯誤的答案之後，我非常意外的
聽到了洋基簽下了今年市場上最大尾的自由球員，
而他完全符合洋基的需求，可同時在兩方面為隊伍帶來升級。
(on both sides of the ball:這句話不知道該怎麼翻)
簽下了AJ看起來使得簽下Teixeira的可能性縮小不少，因為這已經是過去兩個禮拜來
球隊花在投手身上的第二份約了。
在已經耗費了一年四千萬美元的代價在尋找新的投手的情況下，
追求一位必須花上20M/y的一壘手看起來是相當不合邏輯的。
但最後他們還是簽下了鐵爺，這讓洋基成了以其它二十九支球隊的棒球迷為基石
而建立的邪惡帝國....(有那麼邪惡嗎?)
----------------------------------------------------------
好多，剩下的簡短帶過好了
This is the Yankees at their best: signing the top free agents on the market.
They're leveraging not only the greater marginal revenue that can be
generated by each win in New York City, but also their massive cash flow in
an industry in which many, even most, teams are hoarding cash in an unsure
economy. Other fans and other owners may complain, but the money is coming
in; it can go into the team's pockets, or it can be used to improve the
baseball team. If the scale doesn't work, change the scale—fix the
revenue-sharing formulas to factor in market size and potential revenues, as
Keith Woolner suggested forever ago—but don't blame a team for trying to
win. Ever. For all of the focus on the $420-odd million the Yankees have
committed to three players, their 2009 payroll won't be much more than the
2008 one, due to the absence of so many eight-figure salaries: Jason Giambi,
Mike Mussina, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, and Carl Pavano all combined to
make nearly $80 million last year.
大意是在講洋基的財務上並沒有爆表，因為今年確實清出不少薪資空間。
Teixeira is at his peak, one he's expected to maintain for a few more
seasons. Check out his PECOTA card, generated prior to the 2008 season, and
both the stable performance expected in 2009-11 and the tiny rate of decline.
Teixeira's fantastic 2008 season did nothing to lower expectations. He is as
safe a bet as exists on the market, and when you also consider the defensive
upgrade—Teixiera is generally a +10 to +15 defender, and he's replacing the
brutal Jason Giambi—few teams had as much to gain from signing Teixeira as
the Yankees did. Teixeira may lose a few points of batting average in the
move to the AL East, but everything else will be the same. He's an
inordinately safe investment for a free agent, which is a contrast to the
contracts of Sabathia and Burnett.
鐵爺正在他的巔峰狀態，而這樣的狀態也被預期會維持好幾個球季。
預期的退化速度會相當的慢，至少在前面三個球季之中。
鐵爺在來到美東之後打擊的表現也許會稍微下降，但其它地方都維持一樣。
This was simply a great baseball decision, and a great business one. The
Yankees' focus on signing starting pitchers will do little more than maintain
the status quo. Sabathia and Burnett replace Mussina and Pettitte, who
combined to throw 404 innings of 3.90 ERA baseball last season. With Sabathia
moving to a much tougher competitive environment and Burnett not pitching for
a new contract, it's far from a lock that the two will combine to improve
upon those rotation slots. The Yankees are paying just shy of $40 million
next year just to maintain the run prevention they got at the front of the
rotation a year ago. For the Yankee pitching to improve, the young starters—
Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy should someone get hurt—
will have to stay in the rotation and perform to expectations.
大意是在講CC和AJ的組合在短期內未必會比Moose+派派來的好，
(補充一下，23+16.5 vs 13+16，所以洋基花了多10.5M的錢來換取升級，
當然，這絕對不是再講補進那兩位是錯誤的，只是說未必會立刻感受到明顯差異)
先發輪值中依然有著隱憂，AJ對於更具競爭的環境適應力如何，
年輕的三小將也有可能會受傷，也未必能如同預期般的表現良好。
It's easy to say that these moves make the Yankees the favorite in the AL
East, but it's not clear that's the case. The Red Sox have certainly had a
quiet winter, but they also had many fewer holes to fill. From the primary
contributors on the team that fell six innings shy of the World Series, the
only guys they're losing are Coco Crisp and Jason Varitek; in both instances,
the players are replaceable, and can even be improved upon. The Yankees have
been active by necessity; the Red Sox have been quiet by choice. The Yankees
appear to be basically even with the Red Sox now; the Sox' edge is in their
defense, while the Yankees' lies in the likelihood that they'll score more
runs. Both are ahead of the Rays, who are likely to regress a bit in '09
before being scary good in the years that follow.
洋基的作為確實將他們往美東最好的球隊推進了，但他們未必是最好的，
紅襪在這段期間顯得相當的安靜，但他們要填的洞也比較少。
簡單的說，洋基的作為是因為被需求給壓迫的，而紅襪則是主動選擇較為安靜。
簡而言之，依照現在的情況看來，洋基應該勉強可以跟紅襪打平了，
紅襪的強項在於防守，而洋基則著重於打進更多的分數。
他們分別在防守和進攻上強過了光芒隊，光芒隊在09年時也許會出現巨大的退步
(說實在的，我覺得不會...)
If this winter signals that the Yankees are going to narrow their focus to
the very best talent available and use their deep pockets to bring them into
the fold, that's a very good thing for Yankee fans who spent too many years
with Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright instead of Carlos Beltran. What it means
for the industry is less clear, although the most shrill voices are almost
certainly out of key.
這段的前半段，洋基已經為了當年追求痛痛還有萊特而非Carlos Beltran付出慘痛代價，
所以說現在最好的就是不斷的努力抓進更多有天份的選手，
利用洋基球團那深不可測的口袋..........
最後一句話不會翻XD
Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Joe by
clicking here or click here to see Joe's other articles.
翻譯的很爛，請鞭小力一點
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
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