[轉錄]Re: [情報] 25 things you didn’t know about bas …

看板NY-Yankees作者l357 (l357)時間16年前 (2009/08/05 18:12)推噓6(6推 0噓 3→)

留言9則, 8人參與討論串1/1

※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板] 作者: maxspeed150 (我想當芽衣的哥哥) 看板: MLB 標題: Re: [情報] 25 things you didn’t know about bas … 時間: Wed Aug 5 17:57:06 2009 ※ 引述《Ally1213 (牧羊貓 ^.^)》之銘言： : 25 things you didn’t know about baseball : 關於棒球，有25件事情你不知道 : http://tinyurl.com/n3ofpj : I have found baseball nerd heaven, and it is a place called FanGraphs. : Earlier this year, the invaluable repository for statistics unveiled its : pitch-type linear weights. Do not be scared by the math jargon. The amount : of information gleaned from a few clicks is spellbinding, the urge to delve : in deeper addictive, and next thing you know it’s 1:30 a.m. and your boss : is asking where your story is and, uh … Fangraphs很強都有提供球種相關的數據 : So anyway, this is what the statistical revolution has wrought: The ability : to value every pitch thrown from the perspective of the pitcher and batter. : A ball in a certain count has value, as does a strike and a hit and so on. : Using data supplied from MLB.com’s incredible Pitch-f/x system – which : records the velocity and break of every pitch and uses an algorithm to : compute the type of pitch – FanGraphs breaks down the effectiveness of the : pitcher and hitter on every pitch. Fangraphs利用Pitch-f/x system評估投手/打者在使用/面對各種球路時的效率(比平均多打多少分或是比平均多守下多少分) : No longer do we need to rely on conventional wisdom to pinpoint the game’s : best fastball hitter. The numbers tell us. Gone are the days when a general : manager can make a trade and espouse its merits without an empirical review. : FanGraphs brings proprietary knowledge into the hands of fans. : Even mathematical dimwits like me can figure it out. The game’s best fast- : ball hitter, for example, is Albert Pujols(notes). By taking the result of : every fastball he has seen this season and assigning a value to the outcome, : the formula determines that Pujols has contributed 29.5 runs above average on : fastballs alone. 從此我們可以利用數據了解投手的球路好壞以及打者面對各球種的表現而不是只能依賴傳統的球探報告 : Oh, there is plenty more, and you can have at it right here . Though before : you do, look at the 25 points below. : Nerd or not, they’ll blow your mind. 下面來看看25點 : 1) The best fastball in baseball is 88.4 mph. : And it belongs to Jarrod Washburn. He also throws a slider, cutter, : curveball and changeup, but his average-velocity fastball is the dagger of : the bunch. At 22.4 runs above average this year, it has been more effective : than the fastest (Ubaldo Jimenez) and the slowest (Jamie Moyer). : The most amazing part: Washburn’s fastball was actually 8.3 runs below : average last year. 洗炸彈即使均速只有88.4mph 事實上他的速球是今年最好的不過去年他的速球被炸得很慘 : 2) No starter this decade has thrown a fastball like Jimenez’s. : The Rockies’ right-hander’s average velocity is 95.9 mph, the highest since : such data was compiled, in 2002. It’s not dipping, either. Jimenez’s average : fastball velocity in his last start was his highest this season. U-ball擁有2000年以後最快的先發投手球速 : 3) The fastest fastball in all of baseball kind of stinks. : The average velocity on Tigers reliever Joel Zumaya’s fastball is : 99.3 mph. He throws it more than 80 percent of the time. It has been knocked : around to the tune of 4.1 runs below average. The dream of an average 100 mph : fastball may die in August, when, for the second time in two years, Zumaya is : scheduled to undergo shoulder surgery. Zumaya的球速很快但是事實上效果並不理想 : 4) Somebody actually throws a slider more than 90 mph. : Average slider from the Chicago Cubs’ Angel Guzman: 90.2 mph. Angel Guzman的滑球均速超過90mph : 5) No one throws a changeup more than 90 mph. : Well, at least not until Neftali Feliz gets enough innings to count : (and hopefully, by then, the Pitch-f/x algorithm – which, truth be told, is : not 100 percent accurate – will have figured out that it’s not a two-seam : fastball). For now, the hardest changeup among those who throw it more than : five percent of the time belongs to Felix Hernandez, at 89 mph. King的變速球均速達到89mph 聯盟最快沒人能把變速球均速投破90 : 6) The best pitch in baseball is a changeup, and you’ll never guess who : throws it. : Tim Lincecum came up heralded for his blazing fastball and hammer curveball, : and neither is close to his best pitch. Lincecum’s changeup has been 27.5 : runs above average this year, the highest total for any pitch and almost : double the second-best change, Brian Tallet’s 14-runs-above special. It’s : not like Lincecum piles up the runs above average by throwing the changeup : egregiously. His 5.62 runs above per 100 changeups thrown is also the best : for that pitch. 林盲腸的變速球是今年最強的球種每100個變速球比平均多守下5.62分 : 7) Mariano Rivera doesn’t have the best cut fastball in the major leagues. : Texas starter Scott Feldman does. His 3.55 runs above per 100 cutters thrown : is more than a run better than Rivera’s, whose 2.36 per 100 isn’t too : shabby: It ranks fourth in baseball. Feldman今年的切球比Mo還好 : 8) The other best-pitch winners aren’t the ones you’d think, either. : Best curveball goes to Houston left-hander Wandy Rodriguez at 16.7 runs above : average, just ahead of Adam Wainwright’s 16.5. Best slider is Ryan Dempster, : whose 15.6 runs-above-average pitch is well ahead of second-place Zack Greinke. 今年霸主的曲球比擅長曲球的Wainwright強蛋皮的滑球比Greinke強 : 9) Francisco Liriano’s slider isn’t his problem. : Scouting myth: Liriano has lost the bite on his slider since Tommy John : surgery. False. Liriano’s slider is actually 5.9 runs above average. His : fastball is the problem. It’s the worst in the major leagues this season, : 21.8 runs below average, and it has lost more than three mph since his : breakout 2006 season. 小李飛刀的問題是在少了3mph的速球不是在滑球 : 10) Johan Santana is throwing his changeup more than ever to less success : than ever. : As Santana’s fastball velocity declines – he’s down to 90.7 mph on average : – he has increased his changeups thrown to nearly 31 percent, which, in : years past, would be welcome. The problem? His changeup isn’t even a run : above average per 100 thrown this season, whereas his career low is 1.58 per : 100. 山大王速球球速下降變速球越投越多但是變速球品質變差了 : 11) You do not need a good fastball to succeed. : Examples: Ricky Romero(notes) (5.5 runs below on his fastball, 9.4 runs above : on his changeup), Wainwright (13.8 below fastball, 16.5 above curveball and : 10.2 above slider), Dempster (12.9 below fastball, 15.6 above slider), A.J. : Burnett (8.9 below fastball, 10.1 above curveball), Brett Anderson(6.1 below : fastball, 11.1 above slider) and many others. Ricky Romero, Wainwright, Dempster, AJB, Brett Anderson的速球都很糟但是他們變化球都很強 : 12) The largest separation between fastball and changeup is 15.6 mph. : Oakland starter Dallas Braden’s 87.9-mph fastball looks a lot meaner : alongside a changeup that toddles in at 72.3 mph. The only pitcher with a : slower changeup is Cincinnati reliever Danny Ray Herrera, whose numbers are : exempt because, at 5-foot-6, he qualifies for the gnome division. Dallas Braden的速球均速有87.9mph 但是變速球只有72.3mph 速差達到15.6mph (杜福明:科科) : 13) Mark Buehrle throws five above-average pitches. : In order of effectiveness: changeup, fastball, slider (which – hint, hint, : A.J. Pierzynski – he throws only 2.8 percent of time but to 4.55 runs : above per 100 thrown), curveball and cutter. Buehrle有五種超過平均的球路:變速速球滑球(AJP聽到沒) 曲球切球 : 14) Mixing pitches isn’t overrated. It isn’t integral, either. : Los Angeles left-hander Clayton Kershaw’s fastball has the second most runs : above average, and he throws it 72.9 percent of the time. It’s still not : close to the highest. Colorado starter Aaron Cook fires fastballs – of the : sinking, two-seam variety – 85 percent of the time. And with good reason: : His slider and curveball are both around 2? runs below average per 100 thrown. 投手可以只靠一種球路吃飯例如Kershaw或Cook : 15) One person has three pitches that are among the five best in runs above : average. : More evidence that Dan Haren is the business: He’s got the best : splitter in baseball (7.2 runs above average), the fourth-best cutter (13.7 : above average) and the fifth-best fastball (19.3 above average). Haren有三種前五名的球路:快速指叉球(1) 切球(4) 速球(5) : 16) Pitchers should stop throwing Ryan Howard sliders. Like, yesterday. : The book on Howard is the same as ever: throw breaking balls, watch him : chase. This year, he’s seeing more than ever. Only 45.2 percent of pitches : thrown to him are fastballs, and 26.7 percent are sliders, more than seven : percent over his career average. Newsflash: Howard is hitting 8.1 runs above : average off of sliders, second in the major leagues to Shin-Soo Choo. : Want more evidence? Howard’s 1.7 runs above per 100 sliders seen is better : than his 1.25 per 100 fastballs. 猴兒其實不怕滑球事實上他僅次於秋信守他打滑球甚至比打速球還順手 : 17) More pitchers need to learn the split-fingered fastball so they can get : Pujols out. : Superman is fallible after all. While only 2.6 percent of the pitches he sees : are splitters, Pujols can’t hit them. For the last four years, he has been : below average with them, and this year could be the worst: 4.89 runs below : per 100 seen. Scouts have this one pegged: Only seven players have faced a : higher percentage of splitters. 對Pujols應該要多丟點SFF 他打不好 : 18) Justin Upton should never, ever see a fastball again. : Upton is 25.2 runs above average hitting fastballs. The only better fastball : hitters are Pujols, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young. Upton is 13 runs below : average hitting sliders. No one is worse. Pitchers throw Upton sliders 23.9 : percent of the time. It should be more like 40. Justin Upton只會打速球打不到滑球 : 19) Hitting a fastball is not imperative. Just ask the Pittsburgh Pirates. : You figure that during the Pirates’ fire sale they would manage to upgrade : offensively from their former shortstop, Jack Wilson, whose anemic 11.2 runs : below average on fastballs personified the franchise quite well. But no. : They replaced him with Ronny Cedeno(notes), who in just over 200 at-bats is : 17.9 runs below average. His 3.46 runs below per 100 fastballs is the worst : in baseball, and scouts recognize it: Cedeno sees almost 70 percent fastballs : because he can’t touch them. 海盜走了一個打不到速球的Wilson 來了一個更不會打速球的Cedeno : 20) Scouting reports on Chone Figgins stink. : Only David Eckstein, Luis Castillo, Jason Kendall and Denard Span see a : higher percentage of fastballs than Figgins’ 69.5 percent. Difference is, : they can’t hit them. Figgins is 14.5 runs above average against fastballs. 投手很愛給Figgins速球但其實他很會打 : 21) Pitchers may well amp up for good hitters. : Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Mark DeRosa and Billy Butler have one thing in : common: Each has faced an average fastball of 91.7 mph. Pujols, Cabrera and : Butler are their teams’ best hitters, which could be interpreted as pitchers : saving their top-shelf stuff for the toughest out. Or maybe it’s the : opposite: managers saving their hardest-throwing pitchers for use with the : team’s best hitters. Either way, the players that face high-end velocity : tend to skew toward good. 面隊強打時投手均速會變快 : 22) Kendry Morales learned to hit a curveball sometime in the last year. : Morales, in limited playing time last year, was 7.84 runs below average per : 100 curves seen. This year: 5.13 above per 100, the best in baseball. 古巴人去年不會打曲球今年會打了糾~竟這之中有什麼祕密呢 : 23) For the last six years, scouts have pegged Aaron Rowand totally wrong. : How only 7.5 percent of pitches to Rowand last year were curveballs – and : how the number has averaged 8.7 percent the last six years – is in- : conceivable considering Rowand can’t hit one worth a damn. He’s been above : average once in the last eight years, and finally pitchers are throwing him : more curves than anyone else – 13.3 percent, highest in baseball – with : which he’s doing nothing: 2.31 runs below average per 100. Rowand一直都不會打曲球直到今年投手們終於發現這點而他果然打不好 : 24) Travis Ishikawa is like a left-handed, half-Japanese Pedro Cerrano. : Like his Giants teammate Rowand, he cannot hit a curve. His 6.85 runs below : per 100 is worst in baseball among hitters with 200 plate appearances. 石川隆是MLB最不會打曲球的人也是打者面對單一球種最糟的成績 : 25) Six players in baseball do not have a weakness on a specific pitch. : As you know, Pujols isn’t one of them. Joe Mauer is an easy guess, : and it would be correct. Same with Cabrera, who has the privilege of being : the only player above average in all six categories – knuckleball included. : Torii Hunter just makes it, one-one hundredth a run in the black on : curveballs, and his center field peer Adam Jones joins him. The two : National League representatives come from the Central Division. Cincinnati : first baseman Joey Votto is a monster. The other is not. He hits .292. : He slugs .386. He is the epitome of utility. The final player without a : weakness: Skip Schumaker. 六個球員無弱點但其中不含普神他們是貓兒、小卡布、獵人、Adam Jones(水兵迷哭哭) 以及代表國聯的Joey Votto和.........車神 : Just proof that even the most fun numbers do lie a little. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.43.155.174

推

prover

08/05 18:00,

08/05 18:00

推

zxbnm

08/05 18:03,

08/05 18:03

推

Sarladin

08/05 18:06,

08/05 18:06

推

sarserror

08/05 18:09,

08/05 18:09

推

gary63122

08/05 18:09,

08/05 18:09

推

qlman

08/05 18:09,

08/05 18:09

推

raygod

08/05 18:10,

08/05 18:10

推

searoar

08/05 18:11,

08/05 18:11

推

albertjet

08/05 18:12,

08/05 18:12

推

l357

08/05 18:12,

08/05 18:12

-- 在冰高小夜晚上，兀立在松島楓樹上的加藤鷹，俯視自蒼井空掠下大地的來生光...。噢!是奇蹟!在平地的令一頭，高樹瑪麗亞隨著櫻朱音樂跳著椎名舞步，連川島和津實也深受氣氛感染，不時地望著淺倉舞動身體，印照在小澤圓潤的臉上的白石瞳孔中，西村萌了起來，喝著草莓牛奶的大澤惠與正低頭啜飲南波杏仁茶的愛田由，眼中透露著飯島愛意--武藤蘭花上的黑澤愛情是如此堅貞不移！曲末，在白鳥櫻樹下，晚風吹過，安西美穗偃著風勢，那瀨戶由衣也飄盪起來... 給遠方的伊東怜 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 59.125.162.219

→

l357

08/05 18:13, , 1^F

08/05 18:13, 1^F

→

maxspeed150

08/05 18:14, , 2^F

08/05 18:14, 2^F

推

fetoyeh

08/05 19:45, , 3^F

08/05 19:45, 3^F