[BA] 2005 Top 1 Prospect: Mike Hinckley
1. MIKE HINCKLEY, lhp Age: 22 Ht: 6-3 Wt: 170 B-T: R-L
Drafted: HS⑬oore, Okla., 2001 (3rd round) Signed by: Darrell Brown
Background:
Hinckley quickly and quietly has established himself as one of the top
lefthanded pitching prospects in the minors. His talent has been evident
for some time锝e ranked No. 2 in the organization behind Clint Everts in
each of the previous two years end his ascent accelerated rapidly in 2004.
The Expos initially brought Hinckley along slowly, pitching him in the
Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in his pro debut, then kept him in extended
spring training before sending him to short-season Vermont in his second
year. He finished strong at high Class A Brevard County in 2003, then handled
that level with ease again last season before moving on to Double-A Harrisburg.
Hinckley allowed two earned runs or fewer in 19 of his 26 starts while
leading the system in victories (11) and strikeouts (131 in 156 innings).
He now owns a 32-13, 2.80 career record in the minors and has won 20 of his
last 26 decisions.
Strengths:
Hinckley has a lot going for him. He has outstanding command of his fastball,
which sits at 89-92 mph and touches 94, and he holds that velocity deep into
games. His 76-78 mph curveball has good bite and depth. His changeup already
is average. What really puts Hinckley ahead of most 22-year-olds is his makeup,
which might be the best in the organization. He knows the game, he studies it
and prepares well for every start. He demonstrates an advanced feel and
tremendous poise on the mound. His athletic frame is durable and projectable,
and his delivery is free and easy. He uses his lower half well, pitching on a
downward plane that makes it difficult for hitters to take him deep. Hinckley
has been equally effective against lefthanders and righthanders. Lefties hit
.288 with five homers off him in Double-A but that likely was just an
aberration, as they batted .182 against him in high Class A.
Weaknesses:
While he does have a long, lean body, Hinckley still needs to fill out. Once
he does, his fastball velocity should stay in the 91-94 range more often. How
fast he realizes his potential also depends on his ability to refine his
secondary pitches. Both his curveball and changeup are effective, but neither
is as good as Everts? If Hinckley can make them more consistent, his curve
could be a strikeout pitch and his change could be above-average.
The Future:
Now that Hinckley has started to move, he should continue to fly through the
system. He歓l get a look in big league camp after being added to the 40-man
roster this offseason, but he旧 a longshot to make the club. More realistically
, he歓l start 2005 in the minors and could return to Double-A for the first
couple of months, but figures to see Triple-A New Orleans and the majors
before the season is out. Few in the organization see Hinckley as a No. 1
starter in the majors, but he has a high probability of reaching the big
leagues and becoming a successful No. 2 or 3 starter on a quality team.
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