[BP] The Nats Go Red, and the Reds Go Nuts
TA: Breakout
by Christina Kahrl
July 14, 2006
http://0rz.net/491D2
Acquired OF-R Austin Kearns, SS-B Felipe Lopez, and RHP Ryan Wagner from the
Reds for RHP Gary Majewski, LHP Bill Bray, INF-R Brendan Harris, SS-R Royce
Clayton, and RHP Daryl Thompson; purchased the contract of RHP Roy Corcoran
from New Orleans (Triple-A). [7/13]
There's nothing to offer but congratulations to Nats GM Jim Bowden, because
he didn't merely pull off a major deal that helps his team far into the
future, he did it without giving up anything more valuable than Bill Bray's
potential. Considerable though that may be, the old thumbnail sketch on who
won a trade is who got the best player, and what do you call a deal where
it's plausible that a team got the three best players in a deal? Admittedly,
Wagner's a mess, and was flailing at Louisville, allowing almost seven runs
per nine, and neither his plus heat nor his slider are breaking with anything
like the movement that made him a top prospect. He's been having extreme
problems repeating his delivery since injuring his shoulder last summer, and
whether that's his problem or the Reds' tinkering, it seems clear that a
change of scenery will do him some good. He'll only just turn 24 tomorrow,
and with some patience and with the benefit of RFK's friendliness to all
pitchers, he could pan out to be as valuable as either Bray or Majewski.
To keep sifting through the little bit of black lining in an impossibly
silver cloud, financially, the move isn't a slam dunk for the Nats. Both
Lopez and Kearns stand to make a good amount of money through arbitration or
through negotiations inspired by a desire to buy out that eligibility for
arbitration. Presumably, new club president Stan Kasten and the Lerner family
are aware of the financial obligations that are being assumed. Also, they
presumably understand that having Lopez just means that the cost of having
Cristian Guzman around is entirely sunk, preferably in a Delmarva bog to be
named later. But that's just other people's money, and what really matters in
this trade is the ridiculous amount of talent that's been brought aboard in
D.C.
First, there's the virtue of having Kearns. He's only just turned 26, early
on in the usual peak seasons a hitter normally enjoys, from age 25 to 29.
He's finally healthy, and apparently none the worse for wear for his years of
getting nicked up. If his hitting has been somewhat slightly less than
projected, he's a tremendous offensive asset as a center fielder, where the
Nats plan on moving him now that they have him, thereby filling one of their
lineup's biggest holes. Offensively, hitting as well as he has this season,
if you plug him in as a center fielder, his VORP--his value over a
replacement center fielder, not right--jumps up to 24.2, or sixth-best in
baseball, just behind Johnny Damon. Can he handle the position? In terms of
defensive ability, he has the range, the instincts, and the arm to be good in
center, so it shouldn't really be a concern, although Bowden is saying that
they eventually anticipate returning him to right. However, it's easier to
find a right fielder who can help you at the plate than a center fielder, so
I wouldn't infer from this a master plan to replace Jose Guillen (after he
leaves as a free agent, presumably) with Brandon Watson next year.
Then there's exchanging their one-year rental of Clayton for a couple of
years or more of Lopez. Defensively, we've already dealt with how this is
closer to a push than some people will want to admit, and offensively, it's a
win-now, win-later, keep winning exchange that gives the Nats a shortstop who
can lead off, get on base well enough, slug a bit, and run well. Among
current shortstops, his VORP ranks twelfth, not as good as a budding star
like Jose Reyes, but not a huge step down, and in a division where the other
four teams are fielding some of the better hitters at short, an effective
response in kind. Like Kearns, he's a May of '80 baby, so he's just now
entering his prime as a hitter. Even if he's not an asset afield, he's
playing in a park that gives pitchers plenty of space to make mistakes yet
survive unscathed, and that makes his occasional boot that much more
affordable.
A brief chalkboard exercise, if you will. Kearns and Lopez both have two more
years to go before they're eligigle for free agency. That means that beyond
this season, the Nats really only control these guys for the next two years,
after which they might leave and turn into whatever type free agents Elias
labels them as through their archaic system. What did PECOTA initially
project for them without any adjustment for ballpark—they won't be calling
the GAP home, after all—in 2007 and 2008?
Season AVG/ OBP/ SLG EqA VORP
Kearns '07 .276/.370/.515 .292 22.5 (RF)
Lopez '07 .272/.345/.441 .265 23.7
Kearns '08 .278/.375/.525 .298 24.6 (RF)
Lopez '08 .267/.342/.430 .261 21.3
For Kearns, that's his projected VORP as a right fielder--put him in center,
and that value goes up, and you wind up with two of the best offensive
performers at their positions in the two seasons to come, and their value
remains about that high into their subsequent futures, considering that
they'd still only be 28 after 2008. Now, to get all that, you give up two
talented relievers, a rented shortstop of the almost used-up variety, and one
each of your garden varieties of utility infielder and
minor-league-arm-with-promise? Can I have seconds? This is a rip-off for the
ages--less humiliatingly bad than the infamous Jeff Bagwell-for-Larry
Andersen deal, but not by that much.
--
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