Bowden 1, Krivsky 0
http://0rz.net/531Bk
by Aaron Gleeman
July 14, 2006
Lopsided trades happen all the time. In fact, it's the very nature of trading
that a large percentage of swaps involve one team getting significantly more
in return than the other team. Even completely one-sided deals—the ones that
cause guys like me to express amazement that such a thing could take place as
a result of negotiations between two people who are paid to run major-league
baseball teams—happen relatively often.
However, there's a particular subset of unbalanced trades that still occurs
infrequently. These are the trades that not only look unfair from the moment
they take place, but look so out of whack that it's difficult to even
conceive of what one general manager was thinking during negotiations (or how
the other general manager kept a straight face). These are the trades that
would get vetoed in any self-respecting fantasy league in the country.
What sets this specific kind of lopsided deal apart from all the rest is that
there's zero hindsight needed to know that it was a colossal mistake. There
are plenty of trades that become one-sided once they've had time to play out—
for instance, Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser for A.J.
Pierzynski—but rarely can you point to a trade the moment it's made and
label it a sure-fire disaster. "Disaster trades" only happen once every few
years, but what's amazing is that they typically end up looking even worse
than expected very quickly.
The last example of a legitimate disaster trade that I can think of was the
Mets swapping 20-year-old elite pitching prospect Scott Kazmir to the Devil
Rays for 28-year-old Victor Zambrano and his 4.47 career ERA. At the time of
the trade, the vast majority of Mets fans had trouble even coming up with a
plausible line of thinking to even approach justifying the deal, and it
became an instantaneous punchline.
In analyzing the Kazmir-for-Zambrano swap immediately after it took place in
mid-2004, I called it "an awful, awful trade for the Mets" and added:
The Mets just traded for a soon-to-be 29-year-old pitcher
with severe control issues who has never had an ERA below
4.00 as a starter in the major leagues. And what did they
give up for him? Here's where this deal gets crazy ... They
gave up one of the best—and perhaps the best—pitching
prospect in all of baseball, Scott Kazmir.
To show you that it met the aforementioned qualifications for being a
disaster trade—clearly horrible without the need for any hindsight and
impossible to make sense of from the loser's point of view—I then went on to
say:
The idea that Scott Kazmir was just sent from the Mets to
the Devil Rays in a trade that revolved around Victor
Zambrano is enough to make you wonder whether or not you're
following the same game as some of the people in charge
of actually making these decisions.
And as difficult as it may be to believe after re-visiting my initial
reaction, the deal became a true disaster trade by looking even worse for the
Mets than expected almost immediately. Kazmir made it to the big leagues
within weeks and quickly emerged as one of baseball's top young starters,
while Zambrano continued to pitch like he had in Tampa Bay and then struggled
with arm problems.
I bring this up because the Reds completed a disaster trade yesterday,
sending Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner to the Nationals for
Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, and Daryl Thompson.
Any trade with that many players involved is difficult to break down, but
think of it this way: Cincinnati essentially sent its starting right fielder
and starting shortstop—both solid young players making reasonable salaries—
to Washington for two middle relievers, a 36-year-old no-hit shortstop, a
potential utility man, and a Single-A pitcher who's been injured most of the
year.
While "Kazmir-for-Zambrano" is the way most people remember the Mets-Devil
Rays trade from 2004, New York also gave up low-level pitching prospect
Joselo Diaz. Here's what I wrote at the time about his inclusion:
Honestly, if you'd have told me the Devil Rays traded
Zambrano to the New York Mets for just Joselo Diaz, I
would have thought that made sense. A mediocre, 28-year
-old starting pitcher for a mediocre-but-intriguing
24-year-old prospect? Yeah, that seems about right.
Similarly, if you'd have told me that the Reds traded either Kearns or Lopez
for those same five Nationals, it would have seemed somewhat reasonable. That
they parted with both of them—along with Wagner—is difficult to comprehend.
Dealing Kearns and Lopez for spare parts will never haunt the Reds like
dealing Kazmir may haunt the Mets, because Kearns and Lopez are merely solid
players while Kazmir has superstar potential. However, in terms of an overall
exchange of talent—both short term and long term—this trade is about as
lopsided as it gets.
Kearns and Lopez are both 26-year-old former first-round picks who aren't
eligible for free agency until after the 2008 season. They're also both
somewhat enigmatic, but for different reasons. Kearns has never played more
than 112 games in a season, but he's a good defensive outfielder who came
into this season as a career .266/.360/.461 hitter and has batted
.274/.351/.492 this year while missing just two games. Lopez had a big year
in 2005, hitting .291/.352/.486 with 23 homers, but his production has
dropped off this season and he struggles defensively at shortstop.
They're far from perfect players, but Kearns and Lopez are already
above-average regulars entering their peaks years. Kearns ranks fourth among
NL right fielders in Value Over Replacement Position, while Lopez ranks sixth
among NL shortstops even in a disappointing year (and led NL shortstops in
VORP last season). Majewski and Bray are quality relievers and the Reds
certainly need bullpen help, but this appears to be a case of first-year
general manager Wayne Krivsky panicking and overpaying for middle-relief help.
The Reds' strength is their offense, which led the NL in scoring last season
and ranks third this season. They have the outfield depth to adequately
replace Kearns with Chris Denorfia or Ryan Freel, but they'll be suffering a
huge drop-off at shortstop. With Lopez manning the position, the Reds ranked
second and fourth among NL teams in shortstop production over the past two
years. Krivsky has been on the job for about half a year, but he's already
traded for two of this era's worst hitters in Clayton and Juan Castro. Now
those two will split playing time in place of Lopez.
The best-case scenario for the Reds is that Majewski and Bray help stabilize
what has been a brutal bullpen, the Clayton-Castro duo offsets some of the
offense lost by providing better defense than Lopez, and Harris and Thompson
develop into useful role players. Unfortunately, competent middle relief
isn't really something to pay a premium for, there's little to suggest that
Clayton and Castro are quality defenders despite what their long-expired
reputations might have you believe, and Kearns and Lopez are good enough to
make the deal look horrible even if everything breaks right for Cincinnati.
This is a classic example of trying to patch up one hole while opening up
several others in the process, and the end result is Cincinnati trading
dollar-bills for a whole bunch of loose change. Giving up players like Kearns
and Lopez is one thing, but giving them up for such a pathetic return is an
entirely different story. What makes this trade particularly interesting is
that the general manager doing the fleecing, Jim Bowden, hasn't exactly been
known for being the most shrewd decision-maker in the past.
All of which is another way that yesterday's deal is similar to the
Kazmir-for-Zambrano swap, where much-maligned (and since fired) general
manager Chuck Lamar shocked everyone by actually ripping someone else off for
a change. Back then I wrote that the Devil Rays "shocked the hell out of me
by not only making a smart trade, but actually robbing another team blind." I
feel much the same way about Bowden and the Nationals today.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 61.216.79.7
Nationals 近期熱門文章
10
13
PTT體育區 即時熱門文章