Nationals blew Soriano deal in many ways
Michael Rosenberg
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5837666
Oh, I get it. The Washington Nationals really want to keep Alfonso Soriano.
No wonder they decided he would change positions without discussing it with
him, then tried to trade him every day for the past three months.
They did it because they want to keep him.
Sure.
Makes perfect sense.
No matter how much they spin it, the Nationals bungled this. They were right
to shop Soriano. But they let it get so public (and he played so well) that
it all unfolded into one big mess.
Their fans got angry. Totally understandable. When the best player on a
mediocre team is on the trading block, fans get angry. The key is not to let
public opinion drive your decisions — all the best executives know that.
Except ...
The general manager, Jim Bowden, is trying to keep his job. He couldn't
afford to alienate his fan base, and besides, Bowden likes to be loved; he
all but puts on TV makeup before he gets out of bed in the morning. After
publicly talking about how much Soriano is worth, Bowden had to get a huge
return in order to make the deal. And nobody wanted to give him that for a
two-month rental.
So now the Nationals are saying "What? You thought we said we'd move him? No,
no no. We said we'd soothe him."
"Others will offer money, too," team president Stan Kasten told the
Washington Post, "but nowhere will he have the city behind him, the locker
room behind him, the way he has it here."
It's a nice sales pitch.
Of course, the Nationals spent the last three months dangling Soriano in
front of every general manager in baseball and letting every reporter on the
planet know about it.
And Kasten is the same guy who has insisted he doesn't give out no-trade
clauses.
The word "fair" probably doesn't belong in any conversation about a man who
will pull down an eight-figure salary for playing a boy's game, but think
about this for a second. The Nationals want Soriano to commit to D.C. They
think his love for the city should be a factor. But they won't commit to
keeping him in D.C. by giving him a no-trade clause.
In other words, they can change their mind, but he can't. If the Nationals
don't come around on that no-trade clause, they'll almost certainly lose
Soriano. And if they lose him for a silly reason like that, they will annoy
their fan base as much as if they had traded him Monday.
Remember: Soriano still has a condo in the New York area and never wanted to
leave the Yankees. The Yankees might come calling in the off-season. (Where
will they play him? Who cares? They're the Yankees. They'll invent a
position.) Maybe Soriano loves D.C., but does he love it that much more than
he loves New York?
The Nationals will probably lose Soriano in free agency.
But if they re-sign him, all is well, right?
Wrong. For all the talk about Soriano this season — and nobody in baseball
has generated more discussion — one thing you don't hear is the obvious: the
man is having a career year in a contract year.
His OPS of .953 is way better than his previous career best of .879. In the
last two years in Texas, Soriano's OPS was .808 and .821.
Soriano has power, he has speed, and even in his worst year, he is a very
good player. But the Nationals will have to give him superstar money to keep
him, and it is statistically unlikely that he will play like a superstar for
the duration of his contract.
Is it risky to give a guy huge money after a career year? Does the name
Adrian Beltre mean anything to you?
The Nationals had a coveted player having a career year as he entered free
agency. They are not in the playoff hunt. That is exactly the time when you
make a deal.
Now they lose either way — they either overpay for Soriano or they get draft
choices instead of high-level minor leaguers. Bowden himself said that if he
were to lose a player like Soriano, he would like more than just compensatory
draft choices. If Bowden had secured at least one big-time prospect and one
or two good ones for Soriano, the Nationals would have a better chance at the
playoffs in the future.
The playoffs, by the way, are how some teams try to please their fans. Next
time, the Nationals ought to remember that.
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