[農場] Rotoworld Top 10 Prospects
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=2&articleid=27653
1. Kory Casto - OF - DOB: 12/08/81 - ETA: July 2007
.272/.379/.468, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 104/81 K/BB, 6 SB in 489 AB for Double-A
Harrisburg
.302/.471/.434, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 12/17 K/BB, 0 SB in 53 AB for Peoria (AFL)
Casto doesn't offer the upside a team wants from its top prospect, but he's
nearly ready now and he seems likely to have a career as a corner outfielder.
With Ryan Zimmerman set to play the hot corner in Washington for a long time,
Casto made the switch from third base to left field at the end of the June.
He should possess enough range to be an average defender in time. Casto will
have to be a platoon player initially. The left-handed hitter batted
.303/.405/.541 against righties in Double-A last year. He was at .189 against
lefties. Casto is expected to have a chance to compete for a starting job
this spring, though he shouldn't beat out Ryan Church if Church is still
around. Three or four months in Triple-A would do him some good.
2. Jesus Flores - C - DOB: 10/26/84 - ETA: Now
.266/.335/.487, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 128/27 K/BB, 2 SB in 429 AB for Single-A St.
Lucie
It's also discouraging when a team's No. 2 prospect just arrived through the
Rule 5 draft. Flores, though, will have a spot in the bottom third of the top
150 next month. The Nationals are likely to keep the 22-year-old after taking
him out of the Mets organization in December and groom him as a replacement
for Brian Schneider in 2009 and 2010. Flores offers 25-homer potential and a
strong arm behind the plate. The rest of his game remains raw, and he's not
going to benefit from spending the year on the Washington bench rather than
in Double-A. Still, he looks like a future regular.
3. Chris Marrero - OF - DOB: 07/02/88 - ETA: 2011
.309/.374/.420, 0 HR, 16 RBI, 19/8 K/BB in 81 IP for Rookie GCL Nationals
Marrero was the Nationals' first of four picks in the first two rounds of the
2006 draft, going 15th overall. The Nationals moved him from third base to
the outfield immediately after signing him and he was playing well there in
the Gulf Coast League until having his season cut short by viral meningitis.
The Nationals expect Marrero to blossom into a 30-homer guy. It's a bigger
question whether he'll hit for average against advanced pitching. He's due to
open this year at low Single-A Hagerstown.
4. Esmailyn Gonzalez - SS - DOB: 09/21/89 - ETA: 2012
Gonzalez, a native of the Dominican Republic, picked the Nationals over the
Yankees, Red Sox, Twins and Rangers when he signed with the Nationals for
$1.4 million in July. Washington GM Jim Bowden then went and compared his
glove to Ozzie Smith's and his bat to Miguel Tejada's. He may have been a
little overly optimistic with his assessment, but there was enough demand
from other teams to get Gonzalez a spot here, even if he has yet to make his
pro debut. That should come this June in the Gulf Coast League.
5. Collin Balester - RHP - DOB: 06/06/86 - ETA: May 2008
4-5, 5.20 ERA, 126 H, 87/53 K/BB in 117 2/3 IP for Single-A Potomac
1-0, 1.83 ERA, 15 H, 10/6 K/BB in 19 2/3 IP for Double-A Harrisburg
Balester got off to a rough start as a teenager in high-A ball, but right
around the time he turned 20 in June, he began to step up his performance and
he even had three successful starts in Double-A at the end of the year.
Balester remains rather raw. He gets movement on his low-90s fastball and
shows a plus curve, but his stuff has yet to result in a lot of strikeouts. A
better changeup would help in that department. The plan is for Balester to
begin this season in Double-A, and he'll probably make his major league debut
sometime this summer. However, he's likely years away from becoming a quality
major league starter.
6. Matt Chico - LHP - DOB: 06/10/83 - ETA: July 2007
3-4, 3.75 ERA, 48 H, 49/11 K/BB in 50 1/3 IP for Single-A Lancaster
7-2, 2.22 ERA, 62 H, 63/21 K/BB in 81 IP for Double-A Tennessee
2-0, 3.27 ERA, 28 H, 13/8 K/BB in 22 IP for Double-A Harrisburg
The Nationals picked up Chico along with Garrett Mock in the Livan Hernandez
trade with the Diamondbacks last August. Although he's yet to pitch above
Double-A, he is a candidate for a spot in the Nationals' rotation this year.
Since he'd be a flyball pitcher in RFK Park and he doesn't walk many batters,
he could survive now. He's not going to overpower anyone with his 90 mph
fastball, however, and neither his curve nor his changeup is a particularly
big weapon. A future as a fourth or fifth starter seems likely.
7. Colton Willems - RHP - DOB: 07/30/88 - ETA: 2011
0-1, 3.38 ERA, 23 H, 8/3 K/BB in 16 IP for Rookie GCL Nationals
Willems was the 22nd overall pick in the 2006 draft. The Nationals got him
signed quickly, but he had to be shut down after just one appearance in
August because of some elbow soreness. It wasn't believed to be anything
serious. Willems throws in the low-90s and has a hard slider that should turn
into a strikeout pitch. He's not going to move quickly, but he has a lot of
potential, perhaps more than Balester.
8. Garrett Mock - RHP - DOB: 04/25/83 - ETA: May 2008
4-8, 4.95 ERA, 144 H, 117/50 K/BB in 131 IP for Double-A Tennessee
0-4, 10.26 ERA, 29 H, 9/5 K/BB in 16 2/3 IP for Double-A Harrisburg
Mock was rated ahead of Chico entering the year and may have still qualified
as the superior prospect at the time of the Livan Hernandez trade, but his
already disappointing campaign took a turn for the worse after the deal. Mock
has the stuff to become a middle-of-the-rotation starter. He works in the
low-90s with regularity, gets grounders with his cut fastball and shows a
curve that occasionally resembles a plus pitch. Perhaps the results will
catch up with his stuff this year. If so, he could he a factor after the
All-Star break.
9. Larry Broadway - 1B - DOB: 12/17/80 - ETA: April 2008
.288/.353/.455, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 116/45 K/BB, 5 SB in 444 AB for Triple-A New
Orleans
Broadway was dealt a setback in 2005, when knee surgery limited him to 78
games, and again prior to last year, when Nick Johnson got a three-year
extension through 2009. The 2002 third-round pick was able to put in a
healthy 2006, but he didn't do much to advance his cause by finishing with an
808 OPS at New Orleans. The left-handed hitter didn't even make a case for a
future as a platoon player, as he hit 65 points higher and delivered seven of
his 15 homers against southpaws. Barring a step forward this year, Broadway
is likely to settle in as a quad-A player. He'll compete with Travis Lee and
Robert Fick for playing time if Johnson's broken leg isn't going to be ready
for Opening Day.
10. Brett Campbell - RHP - DOB: 10/17/81 - ETA: July 2007
3-1, 8 Sv, 2.38 ERA, 22 H, 27/2 K/BB in 22 2/3 IP for Single-A Potomac
0-3, 8 Sv, 3.14 ERA, 16 H, 20/11 K/BB in 14 1/3 IP for Double-A Harrisburg
0-1, 0 Sv, 3.92 ERA, 14 H, 19/11 K/BB in 20 2/3 IP for Triple-A New Orleans
0-0, 0 Sv, 10.38 ERA, 4 H, 4/2 K/BB in 4 1/3 IP for Washington
Before arriving in D.C. in September and struggling, Campbell had a 3.12 ERA
and a 66/24 K/BB ratio at three levels in the minors last season. The 2004
34th-round pick throws in the low-90s and has an above average slider. His
changeup doesn't draw raves, but since left-handers hit just .233 with one
homer against him in the minors last season, he must be doing something
right. He could become a seventh-inning guy for the Nationals after spending
another half season in Triple-A.
Next five: RHP Shairon Martis, RHP Clint Everts, RHP Zech Zinicola, OF
Rogearvin Bernadina, LHP Mike Hinckley
Ineligible because of service time: Emiliano Fruto
2006 top 15: Ryan Zimmerman, Clint Everts, Mike Hinckley, Collin Balester,
Larry Broadway, Bill Bray, Kory Casto, Brendan Harris, Darrell Rasner, Ian
Desmond, Jason Bergmann, Frank Diaz, Daryl Thompson, Justin Maxwell,
Rogearvin Bernadina
2005 top 10: Mike Hinckley, Clint Everts, Brendan Harris, Larry Broadway,
Ryan Church, Bill Bray, Darrell Rasner, Josh Karp, Jerry Owens, Danny Reuckel
2004 top 10: Mike Hinckley, Seung Song, Clint Everts, Josh Karp, Larry
Broadway, Chad Cordero, Terrmel Sledge, Val Pascucci, Darrell Rasner, Rich
Rundles
2003 top 10: Josh Karp, Seung Song, Clint Everts, Zach Day, Claudio Vargas,
(RHP) Chris Young, Mike Hinckley, Darrell Rasner, Val Pascucci, Terrmel Sledge
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