Interview With Aaron Fitt
Aaron Fitt of Baseball America has completed the organizational rankings for
the Washington Nationals for the last four seasons (2005-2006-2007-2008).
Over that time he has seen the Nationals grow from shoestring to among the
tops in the major leagues (#9 overall in 2008). Aaron was kind enough to take
the time to answer a few questions for me about where the Nationals have come
from and where he sees them going.
Nationals Farm Authority (NFA): Baseball America moved the Nationals from the
30th best system in 2007 to the 9th best in 2008. In your opinion, what was
the primary reason driving this rapid ascension? How much fluidity is there
to this ranking (i.e. do you see stability to the ranking or will it be more
mercurial)?
Aaron Fitt (AF): Simply put, the Washington’s system has gotten a major
infusion of talent over the last year. Much of that is because of the 2007
draft, which we rated as the best in baseball. The Nationals had five picks
in the first two rounds and made the most of them, grabbing players with
upside but who could also move quickly. They really did a great job landing
the best player available with each pick, getting Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker,
Michael Burgess, Jordan Zimmermann and Jake Smolinski. And they were
aggressive in the later rounds, forking over big bucks for Jack McGeary in
the sixth round; nobody thought he’d be signable outside the first round,
but the Nats got creative with his contract and found a way to get him done.
That draft was the single greatest reason for the leap, adding some
much-needed high-impact talent, but trades over the previous year and a half
also added good depth. If anything, I think the Nationals are likely to rank
higher next year, as some of their players in the low minors get closer to
the big leagues and establish themselves as premium prospects, rather than
simply promising prospects.I expect Zimmermann, in particular, to make that
leap next year.
NFA: In your opinion, who is leading the efforts to rebuild the farm system?
Jim Bowden? Mike Rizzo? Dana Brown? Bob Boone?
AF: It really is a true team effort. It starts at the top, where the Lerners,
Stan Kasten and Bowden have made a legitimate commitment to building a solid
foundation through player development, rather than sacrifice the long-term
vision for some short-term gratification as the team moves into its new
stadium. That commitment is not typical, and it’s absolutely vital. Give
Bowden credit for parlaying veterans like Livan Hernandez, Mike Stanton and
Marlon Anderson into solid prospects like Garrett Mock, Jhonny Nunez and
Shairon Martis, and give him credit for letting people like Rizzo and Brown
do their jobs. Brown deserves most of the credit for the exceptional 2007
draft, though Rizzo was heavily involved as well. All of those people work
together very well.
NFA: What are the organization’s strengths? Where do they need to improve?
AF: Before they traded Glenn Gibson, I don’t think any organization had a
better reservoir of quality lefthanded pitching than the Nationals. Even
without Gibson, the Detwiler-Smoker-McGeary-John Lannan group is pretty
special, and Cory Van Allen is intriguing as well. That is the strength of
the organization, in my mind. There are plenty of promising righthanded power
arms as well, like Collin Balester, Zimmermann, Colton Willems, Mock, Brad
Peacock, Nunez, Hassan Pena, Adam Carr, Martin Beno and Zech Zinicola. That’
s very good depth as well. There are a few potential high-impact bats in the
system, like Chris Marrero (who I think is a very safe bet to be a
.280-30-100 type player in the big leagues, and could very well be better
than that), Burgess, Justin Maxwell and Smolinski, but most of the the other
position-player prospects carry more risk. Guys like Stephen Englund, Stephen
King, Ian Desmond and Derek Norris have plenty of talent, but they all have
major flaws as well. I think the Nationals are very thin on good infield
prospects.
NFA: The Nationals have openly discussed starting the season with Ross
Detwiler in the major league bullpen, in a fashion similar to what teams did
in the past, working a high profile SP into the rotation slowly. Where do you
come down on this idea? Good or bad? [Note: In the time between conducting
the interview and getting it posted, the Nationals assigned Detwiler to
Potomac]
AF: Brandon Morrow of the Mariners seems to be a very good model for this,
but I would rather see him work as a starter in the minors. He’s such a
promising arm, it would be a shame to destroy his confidence in the big
leagues (think Craig Hansen of the Red Sox) before he’s ready. He’s got
some things to work on, so let him work on them in Double-A, and bring him up
when he’s ready.
NFA: What reason do you believe led to the sliding of Burgess in the 2007
draft? After signing, Burgess showed the ability to hit at the levels he
played. What are his strengths? What areas does Burgess need to work on?
AF: He had a very poor senior year of high school, kind of like Chris Marrero
’s slide the year before that allowed the Nationals to get him in the middle
of the first round. Burgess had too many people whispering in his ear, and he
benefited by just listening to his professional instructors after he was
drafted. He’s got so much power crammed into that compact frame, he’s got a
chance to be a big-time home run hitter in the majors. He does need to work
on getting his swing a little more under control, and he’s got to watch his
weight — I’ve spoken to at least one organization official who thinks
Burgess will end up at first base for sure. That would suppress his value
considerably.
NFA: What are your feelings on the deal McGeary signed? Is it something you
can see the Nationals (or other teams) doing in the future?
AF: I’ll certainly give the Nationals points for creativity. The time at
Stanford could slow his development early in his pro career, but I think the
trade-off will be worth it, because he’s got a chance to be an Andy Pettitte
type in the majors down the road. He’s just so polished for a high school
product, and guys with his makeup seem to succeed at a higher rate than other
players.
NFA: Where are the strengths in the 2008 draft? If you were in charge of the
Nationals and knowing you should always go with the best available player,
what type of player would you select at #9, a high school or college player
who grade on equally? Any names we should watch for?
AF: The college class is rich with corner infield bats (Justin Smoak, Pedro
Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, Allan Dykstra, Conor Gillaspie, Brett Wallace, James
Darnell) and quality (if flawed) arms (once you get past the top guys–Brian
Matusz, Aaron Crow, Shooter Hunt– you’ve got Brett Hunter, Ryan Perry,
Tanner Scheppers, Luke Burnett, Cody Satterwhite, Lance Lynn, Christian
Friedrich, Tyson Ross, Jacob Thompson). The college outfielders and middle
infielders are weak. Pitching seems to be the strength of the high school
class, though I think the Nationals could be looking at a catcher at No. 9.
There are two in the prep ranks who would seem a decent fit there–Kyle
Skipworth and Adrian Nieto–and one in the college ranks who could be perfect
–Florida State’s Buster Posey. Catching is one area where the Nationals are
thin, and those are good options for that part of the draft. But the
Nationals have proven adept at taking the best player available, whether
college or prep, and I’m confident they’ll do the same thing this year.
NFA: Is there a break even point with going over slot in signing draft picks?
In other words, should teams break the bank at every chance or should they
target a handful of overslot guys and fill in the other areas with more
signable players?
AF: Every team has a different approach to this, so there’s not any single
right answer. Personally, I think investing in the draft is always a good
idea, but some teams are reluctant to cross the commissioner’s office. I don
’t think Washington will be one of those teams.
NFA: Marrero has thus far delivered on his potential but has moved from 3B to
LF to 1B. What sort of offense will need need to provide to be an above
average contributor as a 1B? How does he appear defensively?
AF: He’ll need to be a 30-homer guy, and I think he will be. That bat is
legit — and it’s not just a power bat. His mature approach is what really
sets him apart for his age. He’s making progress defensively and should be
more than adequate at first.
NFA: What sort of future do you see for some of the other 2006 high
schoolers? King? Englund? Willems?
AF: They’re all high-risk, high-reward types, and I like Willems the most of
that group and think his fastball command is encouraging, though I worry
about his command of his secondary pitches. Englund has a higher ceiling than
King, but I think King is much more likely to reach his ceiling, which is an
offensive second baseman.
NFA: How are the Nationals doing internationally? After the attention the
Nationals focused on the signing of Smiley Gonzalez, they have not publicly
highlighted their efforts internationally. Is there progress there? What
should a fan of the Nationals look for to demonstrate improvement in the
international area?
AF: They continue to sign quality players in the Dominican, if not the
blue-chippers, but there is a lot of risk associated with giving a $2 million
bonus to a 16-year-old, and I don’t think it’s a great investment. They’re
making progress in Venezuela, having signed four decent prospects there last
year, and are looking to make inroads in the Pacific Rim with an 18-day trip
out there leading up to the Olympics in China.
NFA: After years of high expectations unrealized, it appears that Desmond has
begun to deliver to some degree. Where do you see his ceiling now?
AF: I think he can be a fringe-average major league shortstop. I don’t see
him being a star. But there’s nothing wrong with fringe-average.
NFA: Please provide me a breakout pitcher and hitter for the Nationals in
2008. Who do you think could be this year’s Lannan and quickly climb the
organizational ladder?
AF: Breakout pitcher: Hassan Pena. Breakout hitter: Edgardo Baez (in a Frank
Diaz 2006 kind of way). This year’s Lannan: Jeff Mandel.
NFA: With the Braves moving out of Richmond, what are the chances the
Nationals can get a foothold there? A Triple-A franchise seems unlikely but
is there an opportunity for the Nationals to get a Double-A or A-ball
affiliate there?
AF: It seems a perfect fit given the proximity to Washington, obviously, and
I think it’s extremely likely Richmond will try to land another minor league
affiliate in the near future.
I want to thank Aaron for taking the time to answer my questions.
--
我會唱歌我知道，我也對評審的肯定給予肯定。
～～王菲
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