How the Nationals Were Winners at the Draft Deadline
http://www.baseballdigestdaily.com/bullpen/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=520&Itemid=39
Sunday, 17 August 2008
By Brian Joseph
Criticize general manager Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals for their
failure to land Aaron Crow all you want but, in this case, you’d be wrong.
Three first round choices went unsigned on Friday but the Nationals were the
only team to fail to sign their first pick over money. The Mariners did not
sign 20th overall pick Joshua Fields but with no eligibility, Seattle has
until next May to seal the deal and the Yankees failed to sign 28th pick
Gerrit Cole but that was due to his father’s wishes for his son to go to
UCLA. In the case of the Nationals, it was due to a failed negotiation
between the team and the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year.
On MVN, 18 hours before the deadline, I rated Crow as the least likely to
sign on Friday of the 10 first round choices that remained unsigned entering
the final day. While I wasn’t close to the situation, all signs pointed to
such a breakdown between the two sides that Crow’s signing with the Fort
Worth Cats of the independent American Association looked to be more than
just negotiating leverage. Admittedly, part of my reasoning for the rating
was the lack of faith I had in Bowden to get the deal done.
After the deal, thanks to an MLB.com report detailing Bowden’s account of
the negotiations and e-mail comments from one of Crow’s advisers Randy
Hendricks, it’s hard to fault Bowden and the Nationals from landing the
talented Missouri junior.
In Bowden’s recount of the offer, there were a number of reasons why making
a deal was difficult and, in the end, would have been irresponsible for
Bowden to approve:
1. Crow’s Unrealistic Signing Bonus Demands
From the beginning of the negotiations, Crow’s advisers, Randy and Alan
Hendricks, were mum on the amount of money their client wanted. On Tuesday,
just three days before the deadline, Crow’s advisers made the Nationals
aware that Crow wanted a $9-million signing bonus. For 99.8% of the
negotiations, Crow’s side refused to budge.
From the Nationals perspective, they paid their 2007 pick Ross Detwiler a
$2.15-million bonus as the sixth overall pick. The ninth pick in the 2007
pick, Jarrod Parker, received a $2.1-million bonus from the Arizona
Diamondbacks.
According to Bowden, the original bonus offer was somewhere in the ballpark
of $2.2 million. After being informed of Crow’s demands for $9-million,
Bowden rightfully called the Hendricks to get an explanation for such a high
demand. The Hendricks refused to offer Bowden one.
As the deadline drew closer, the top pitcher drafted -- Brian Matusz --
signed with the Baltimore Orioles for a $3.2-million signing bonus.
According to Bowden, when they learned of the Matusz deal, the Nationals
contacted Crow through his agents and left a message that they were willing
to offer a deal within the “same framework” of Matusz.
Hendricks responded via e-mail: “We have no interest in the Matusz deal and
no interest in a deal below Matusz.”
By 10:30 p.m., the Nationals had moved to $3 million. Crow’s side didn’t
budge. Later, Bowden raised the offer the $3.3 million but had to pull the
Major League contract offer off the table (more on that in the next point).
Finally, at 11:44 p.m., the Hendricks contacted the Nationals with a
declaration they were willing to take $4.4 million which fell closer to the
$4.55-million signing bonus received by seventh overall pick Yonder Alonso
than the $3.5-million signing bonus received by eleventh overall pick Justin
Smoak who both signed on deadline day. Crow still wanted the Major League
contract.
With minutes to spare, the Nationals verbally offered Crow a bonus above
Matusz at $3.5-million. As the clock struck midnight, there was no deal.
2. The Major League Contract Demand
Before the draft, Crow made teams aware that he wanted a Major League
contract and an “out-of-the-box deal.” It’s hard to imagine that when the
Nationals drafted Crow, they were unwilling to give him a Major League
contract when the deal was sealed.
At one point, a Major League contract was on the table but the Nationals
pulled it from negotiations on Friday. A closer look leaves you asking the
question, can you blame them?
Crow and the Hendricks wanted $9 million from the Nationals but never
scheduled with the Nationals to perform a routine physical on their potential
investment. Until the point there was not enough time to perform the
physical, the Nationals were perfectly willing to give Crow a Major League
contract.
Put yourself in the shoes of both sides. If you are the Nationals, would you
be willing to offer a Major League contract to an amateur player without a
physical? If you were the Hendricks, wouldn’t you personally accompany your
client to Washington for a physical to move the process along in good faith?
3. Crow’s Advisers’ Preference to Negotiate Via E-Mail
Bowden made it clear in his description of the negotiations that the
Hendricks were more willing to negotiate via e-mail. The fact that Bowden
mentioned their preference makes me think that this was not Bowden’s
preference.
If I was in Bowden’s shoes, this approach would have left a bad taste for me
especially if I picked up the phone to discuss the potential deal with the
player I wanted.
In addition to this, the fact that Crow’s advisers waited until the 73rd day
to make their first contract request which was also not done verbally.
4. Compensation for Crow and How Far Away the Nationals Are From Contention
The Nationals are arguably the worst team in the Majors. Their sense of
urgency to overpay for Crow should be higher, right? Well, maybe. But the
Nationals get the ninth pick in 2009 since Crow went unsigned. With the late
signing of Crow, the team would not have been able to get an opportunity to
get a real good look at the University of Missouri pitcher until next year,
anyway. While Crow will be 22 and just completed his junior year, it is
unlikely for him to contribute on the Major League level until 2010 or 2011.
Now, the Nationals can draft a player in 2009 comparable to Crow who, if he
progresses quickly, will contribute in 2011 and 2012. Plus, the team has an
additional $3.5 million in spending money -- their final offer -- to go out
in the offseason and land a free agent.
Their new park needs attractions immediately to get fans to the park and an
extra $3.5 million will help the team do that quicker than Crow will.
Final Thoughts
Just to give a little perspective on Crow’s original, ridiculous demands, at
the deadline, the $9 million signing bonus was more than the total bonuses
given out by the Yankees in 2007 who gave out a then-record $8,035,000 in
bonuses to ALL of their signed amateurs.
While the seventh and eleventh picks held out for bigger bonuses, the eighth
overall pick Gordon Beckham signed for a $2.6-million bonus and the 10th
overall pick Jason Castro signed for a $2.07-million bonus. Average the
seventh, eighth, 10th and 11th picks together and the figure works out to
$3.18 million. By the end, the Nationals made an offer $300,000 higher than
that number which was also $300,000 higher than the offer signed by the top
pitcher selected in the draft, Matusz.
After the deadline, both sides postured. Bowden claimed the team offered
money higher than any pick in the draft and a Major League contract and
pointed to that as an example of how much they valued Crow. The Hendricks
offered little but did make a statement in an e-mail message:
“The only relevant thing at this point is that Bowden and the Nationals had
an opportunity to sign Aaron for halfway between what Yonder Alonso and
Justin Smoak signed for late Friday night, and they declined to do so.”
A convenient argument easily debunked by anyone who looked at Gordon Beckham’
s $2.6-million bonus at the eighth pick.
On the other hand, look at where Bowden and the Nationals were coming from.
They immediately informed Crow of their offer of $2.2 million which fell in
line with Beckham and Castro who signed before the last day. Before they
received a counter offer, Washington bumped their offer to $2.25 million.
The counter offer of $9 million came with less than 96 hours remaining in
the negotiations. Eventually, the team budged and threw out an offer of $3
million and $3.3 million. Team Crow gave the team a total of 16 minutes to
consider the $4.4 million bonus and sight unseen Major League contract they
demanded.
Maybe if the Hendricks were willing to budge sooner, the deal would have
gotten done. If Crow was insulted by the additional $50,000 added to the
original offer, his advisers could have returned with a compromise of $8.95
million. And why did they wait almost 11 weeks to make their demands known?
Bowden’s Nationals are a long way away from getting better. After a dud of
a trade deadline, the team made a smart move by cutting ties with Paul Lo
Duca and Felipe Lopez. The need to improve is going to come at a price but
was overpaying for Crow the right one to pay? And even if it was, how much
more difficult would negotiations with the Hendricks and, more importantly,
Crow been? Maybe in the end, it was better for Washington to let Crow fly
south to play for the Fort Worth Cats, even if he didn’t lose a game in 2008
in college. Besides, it took his University of Missouri Tigers 31 runs to
overcome a poor outing by Crow against the Texas Longhorns back in August…
the Nationals have never scored 31 runs!
--
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