[情報] 2009 ZiPS Projections - Washington N …

看板Nationals作者pikachu123 (pika)時間16年前 (2008/12/28 16:12)推噓1(1推 0噓 1→)

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http://tinyurl.com/7mvfrq As strange as it may sound, the Nats had one of the best terrible offenses in baseball this generation. Upon reviewing last year's projections (adding in the benefit of knowing the 2008 park factor and league offense), I still ended up with an amazing amount of offensive underperformers.It wasn't an organizational issue - Nat minor leaguers didn't underperform at all as a group. It seemed to simply be localized in the majors. If it was luck, not much you can do to "fix" that.If the Nationals were putting Polonium-210 in the clubhouse drinking water, well, they could stop doing that. If it was Lenny Harris, who didn't fare any better as a hitting coach anecdotally, the Nats are in luck, as he was easily and mercifully fired at the end of last season. Washington's two main problems right now are lack of high-quality pitchers and Nick Johnson's wrist. The team can't do much about the fact that Nick Johnson has some genetic flaw that caused his hand to be connected to his arm by Scotch Tape that had been previous stuck on a carpet, but they can put some resources into bringing in some pitching, both in free agency, and not fighting over relatively small sums of money in the amateur draft. All in all, the Nats, like the Orioles, aren't a good team yet, but are a lot less depressing than they were a couple of years ago. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATCHERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jesus Flores c 24 .252 .312 .409 104 313 32 79 17 1 10 55 23 81 Av FAIR Johnny Estrada# c 33 .272 .301 .384 84 294 25 80 15 0 6 38 10 29 Fr Luke Montz c 25 .242 .308 .384 111 396 46 96 18 1 12 54 37 85 Fr POOR Wil Nieves c 31 .245 .289 .322 78 233 19 57 10 1 2 22 14 29 Vg ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRST BASEMEN ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG EXCELLEN Nick Johnson* 1b 30 .264 .416 .486 66 216 38 57 18 0 10 31 51 46 Av AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dmitri Young# 1b 35 .280 .355 .434 84 279 31 78 17 1 8 36 32 53 Pr FAIR Ronnie Belliard 2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 Av POOR Larry Broadway* 1b 28 .252 .327 .394 126 432 47 109 23 1 12 49 47 97 Fr Kory Casto* 1b 27 .240 .316 .371 116 388 43 93 19 1 10 50 42 87 Av Luke Montz c 25 .242 .308 .384 111 396 46 96 18 1 12 54 37 85 Fr Yurendell de Caster 3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 Vg Chris Marrero 1b 20 .227 .273 .385 105 410 42 93 15 1 16 44 24 71 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE Ronnie Belliard 2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Willie Harris* lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 Fr FAIR Yurendell de Caster 3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 Pr Leonard Davis* lf 25 .243 .283 .421 123 456 48 111 23 2 18 53 22 90 Pr POOR Alberto Gonzalez ss 26 .260 .313 .348 80 227 29 59 12 1 2 14 16 27 Vg Ray Olmedo# ss 28 .252 .300 .326 106 337 33 85 14 1 3 26 22 49 Av Ed Rogers ss 30 .255 .289 .335 110 373 35 95 15 0 5 25 15 57 Fr Anderson Hernandez# ss 26 .245 .285 .318 136 535 64 131 21 3 4 41 30 82 Av Pete Orr* 2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIRD BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Ryan Zimmerman 3b 24 .280 .342 .481 137 553 82 155 33 3 24 76 51 99 Vg AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ronnie Belliard 2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 Fr FAIR Willie Harris* lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 Av POOR Kory Casto* 1b 27 .240 .316 .371 116 388 43 93 19 1 10 50 42 87 Fr Yurendell de Caster 3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 Fr Leonard Davis* lf 25 .243 .283 .421 123 456 48 111 23 2 18 53 22 90 Pr Ed Rogers ss 30 .255 .289 .335 110 373 35 95 15 0 5 25 15 57 Fr Pete Orr* 2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHORTSTOPS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Cristian Guzman# ss 31 .299 .336 .423 100 411 56 123 22 4 7 35 21 43 Av AVERAGE Ronnie Belliard 2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 Pr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAIR Alberto Gonzalez ss 26 .260 .313 .348 80 227 29 59 12 1 2 14 16 27 Av POOR Ray Olmedo# ss 28 .252 .300 .326 106 337 33 85 14 1 3 26 22 49 Av Ed Rogers ss 30 .255 .289 .335 110 373 35 95 15 0 5 25 15 57 Fr Ian Desmond ss 23 .226 .283 .348 116 425 45 96 19 0 11 36 31 81 Vg Anderson Hernandez# ss 26 .245 .285 .318 136 535 64 131 21 3 4 41 30 82 Av Pete Orr* 2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 Pr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORNER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Elijah Dukes# rf 25 .255 .375 .461 95 321 52 82 17 2 15 38 56 84 Av AVERAGE Josh Willingham lf 30 .259 .355 .458 121 424 59 110 24 3 18 65 49 93 Pr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lastings Milledge cf 24 .280 .343 .452 128 471 67 132 23 2 18 60 36 89 Av FAIR Austin Kearns rf 29 .252 .351 .400 121 437 63 110 24 1 13 60 58 92 Vg POOR Willie Harris* lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 Vg Ryan Langerhans* cf 29 .239 .341 .375 131 301 46 72 16 2 7 33 45 82 Vg Jorge Padilla rf 29 .271 .330 .370 105 376 46 102 17 1 6 43 28 55 Av Justin Maxwell cf 25 .234 .300 .429 89 333 49 78 15 1 16 44 29 68 Vg Rogearvin Bernadina*cf 25 .262 .318 .373 119 466 65 122 21 2 9 42 37 93 Vg Wily Mo Pena lf 27 .246 .303 .401 98 289 30 71 13 1 10 29 21 85 Pr Kory Casto* 1b 27 .240 .316 .371 116 388 43 93 19 1 10 50 42 87 Fr Marvin Lowrance* lf 24 .228 .295 .387 124 457 49 104 22 0 17 50 40 89 Pr Yurendell de Caster 3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 Fr Leonard Davis* lf 25 .243 .283 .421 123 456 48 111 23 2 18 53 22 90 Av Alex Escobar rf 30 .241 .293 .365 48 170 19 41 9 0 4 20 12 33 Av Chris Marrero 1b 20 .227 .273 .385 105 410 42 93 15 1 16 44 24 71 Fr Pete Orr* 2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CENTERFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG EXCELLENT Elijah Dukes# rf 25 .255 .375 .461 95 321 52 82 17 2 15 38 56 84 Pr VERY GOOD Lastings Milledge cf 24 .280 .343 .452 128 471 67 132 23 2 18 60 36 89 Fr AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Willie Harris* lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 Fr FAIR Ryan Langerhans* cf 29 .239 .341 .375 131 301 46 72 16 2 7 33 45 82 Fr Jorge Padilla rf 29 .271 .330 .370 105 376 46 102 17 1 6 43 28 55 Pr Justin Maxwell cf 25 .234 .300 .429 89 333 49 78 15 1 16 44 29 68 Av Rogearvin Bernadina* cf 25 .262 .318 .373 119 466 65 122 21 2 9 42 37 93 Av POOR Wily Mo Pena lf 27 .246 .303 .401 98 289 30 71 13 1 10 29 21 85 Pr Alex Escobar rf 30 .241 .293 .365 48 170 19 41 9 0 4 20 12 33 Fr Pete Orr* 2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ MIDDLE THIRD John Lannan* 24 4.11 11 11 29 28 171.0 171 78 19 59 98 107 Shawn Hill 28 4.45 4 6 17 17 91.0 104 45 7 25 50 98 Daniel Cabrera 28 4.62 9 13 31 31 185.0 179 95 21 99 165 95 Scott Olsen* 25 4.76 9 12 32 32 191.0 206 101 28 65 131 92 Jordan Zimmermann23 4.81 6 8 26 25 131.0 135 70 18 57 88 91 Tim Redding 31 4.82 8 13 30 29 170.0 184 91 23 60 111 91 Odalis Perez* 32 4.84 6 10 26 23 132.0 147 71 18 43 92 90 Jason Bergmann 27 4.94 5 9 35 22 142.0 150 78 22 53 106 89 BOTTOM THIRD Garrett Mock 26 5.02 5 7 30 20 122.0 134 68 15 49 87 87 Shairon Martis 22 5.13 7 12 27 27 144.0 158 82 20 64 87 85 Matt Chico* 26 5.13 4 7 20 19 107.0 122 61 15 38 63 85 Collin Balester 23 5.24 7 12 30 30 158.0 179 92 24 58 100 84 Marco Estrada 25 5.66 4 8 22 18 97.0 112 61 15 42 58 77 Michael O'Connor*28 5.72 3 6 17 17 85.0 99 54 18 26 47 77 Tyler Clippard 24 5.75 5 13 27 27 133.0 147 85 22 74 90 76 Ross Detwiler* 23 5.93 3 8 18 17 82.0 94 54 13 42 46 74 Luis Atilano 24 6.06 3 7 22 16 101.0 123 68 19 34 34 72 Mike Hinckley* 26 6.46 3 11 33 17 117.0 145 84 18 62 53 68 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ MIDDLE THIRD Saul Rivera 31 3.80 5 4 71 0 83.0 82 35 3 39 62 115 Chad Cordero 27 3.91 3 2 46 0 46.0 45 20 6 16 40 112 Joel Hanrahan 27 3.92 5 4 70 0 85.0 76 37 9 43 92 112 Steven Shell 26 4.19 3 4 71 0 86.0 84 40 13 29 69 105 Jesus Colome 31 4.50 2 3 56 0 64.0 64 32 6 30 46 97 BOTTOM THIRD Terrell Young 23 4.96 2 4 36 0 49.0 52 27 5 31 25 88 Brian Sanches 30 4.98 4 2 50 0 56.0 59 31 10 21 51 88 Levale Speigner28 4.98 2 4 38 2 65.0 75 36 7 23 31 88 * - Throws Left --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Ryan Zimmerman (3B) AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Projection .280 .342 .481 137 553 82 155 33 3 24 78 51 99 2 0 116 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ron Santo, Adrian Beltre ODDIBE Offense % STAR 41 AVG 76 REP LV 99 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 1 >.400 1 >10 1 >200 0 >140 8 >.375 10 >5 15 >150 60 >130 20 >.350 40 >120 41 >.325 77 2B % >110 66 >.300 97 >45 4 >100 86 >30 71 >90 96 >80 99 >60 100 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 7 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 2 >.500 32 >40 2 >50 0 >.300 19 >.450 77 >30 12 >30 0 >.275 55 >.400 97 >20 80 >10 0 >.250 90 >.350 100 >10 100 (Based on Projected ABs) --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Lastings Milledge (CF) AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Projection .280 .343 .452 128 471 67 132 23 2 18 60 36 89 21 7 110 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jose Cardenal, Chet Lemon ODDIBE Offense % STAR 43 AVG 77 REP LV 90 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 2 >10 0 >200 0 >140 4 >.375 11 >5 21 >150 5 >130 11 >.350 41 >120 27 >.325 81 2B % >110 50 >.300 98 >45 0 >100 74 >30 10 >90 91 >80 98 >60 100 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 2 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 3 >.500 14 >40 0 >50 1 >.300 16 >.450 50 >30 2 >30 20 >.275 53 >.400 88 >20 31 >10 98 >.250 94 >.350 99 >10 96 (Based on Projected ABs) --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - John Lannan ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 4.11 11 11 29 28 171 171 78 19 59 98 107 Top Near-Age Comps: Tom Glavine, Dave Fleming ODDIBE ERA % Top 1/3 50 Mid 1/3 36 Bot 1/3 14 ERA+ % BB % >150 5 <29 0 >140 9 <38 5 >130 17 <48 24 >120 28 <57 47 >110 43 <67 67 >100 63 <76 91 >90 82 >80 96 HR % >70 100 <13 11 <19 50 K % <25 79 >171 0 <30 97 >152 0 >133 4 >114 21 (Based on Projected IP) --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Daniel Cabrera ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 4.62 9 13 31 31 185 170 95 21 99 165 95 Top Near-Age Comps: Stan Williams, Darryl Kile ODDIBE ERA % Top 1/3 30 Mid 1/3 39 Bot 1/3 31 ERA+ % BB % >150 1 <31 0 >140 2 <41 0 >130 5 <51 2 >120 13 <62 9 >110 24 <72 20 >100 43 <82 29 >90 65 >80 83 HR % >70 93 <14 17 <21 52 K % <27 73 >185 14 <33 89 >164 36 >144 72 >123 90 (Based on Projected IP) --------------------------------------------- ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) OPS+ >140 Dukes 19 Willingham 8 Zimmerman 8 OBP >.400 Dukes 24 Young 8 Kearns 7 SLG >.550 Zimmerman 7 Dukes 6 Willingham 4 BA >.325 Guzman 17 Young 4 Milledge 3 2B >45 Zimmerman 4 3B >10 Harris 2 Zimmerman 1 HR >30 Zimmerman 12 Lowrance 4 Milledge 2 SB >50 Bernandina 36 Milledge 1 ERA+ >140 Hanrahan 20 Rivera 13 Shell 13 K/9 >9 Hanrahan 49 Sanches 20 Cabrera 14 BB/9 <1.5 Hill 12 O'Connor 9 Perez 8 HR/9 <0.7 Rivera 92 Hill 49 Hanrahan 28 All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 125.224.2.35 ※ 編輯: pikachu123 來自: 125.224.2.35 (12/28 16:16)