[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Nationals Preview

看板Nationals作者Belladonaa時間16年前 (2009/02/17 14:37)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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Athlon Baseball 2009 Washington Nationals Preview Expect the Washington Nationals to spare their fans the indignity of a second straight 100-loss season. The good news, however, ends there. The widespread injuries that doomed the Nats to baseball’s worst record last season are unlikely to cripple them again. But good health isn’t enough to overcome their lack of starting pitching depth and a lineup that has not proven it can consistently produce. Anyone believing that the Nationals can duplicate the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays’ Cinderella story is indeed living a fairy tale. Rotation Washington’s rotation lacks a bona fide ace and depth at the back end. John Lannan’s solid rookie season was perhaps the brightest spot in a dismal 2008. His 9–15 record doesn’t stand out, but the run support he received was among the worst in baseball. Lannan, who turned 24 last September, proved he could handle the rigors of a full season and learned the importance of locating his high-80s fastball. The addition of lefty Scott Olsen provides some long-term stability, but he’s an innings eater — not an ace. The Nationals are counting on him to progress to another level of success. The rest of the rotation will be comprised of prospects or bargain veterans. Washington hopes pitching coach Randy St. Claire can minimize free agent Daniel Cabrera’s longstanding control problems. Expect both growing pains and signs of promise from Collin Balester and Jordan Zimmermann. Bullpen The Nationals’ best asset two seasons ago was overhauled during 2008, leaving an inexperienced and unproven group in place. Closer Joel Hanrahan began last season in long relief but finished with nine saves after Chad Cordero (now released) got hurt and Jon Rauch was traded. Hanrahan’s mid-90s fastball and complementary slider are worthy of a closer, but controlling his emotions and pitches is still a work in progress. Lefty Mike Hinckley didn’t allow an earned run in his first 13.2 big league innings, and it’s imperative that he sustains that success. Saul Rivera was his normal, solid self last season, but his 3.96 ERA was a step back. Steven Shell was good enough as a rookie to win management’s trust. Middle infield Shortstop Cristian Guzman finally lived up to the $16.8 million deal he signed prior to 2005. Washington’s lone All-Star stayed healthy and batted .316 with 183 hits, 35 doubles and a .345 OBP — all career highs. He credited the laser eye surgery he had prior to the 2006 season. Since the procedure, he has hit .318 in 753 at-bats (he sat out all of 2006 and played only 46 games in 2007). He signed a two-year extension in July, and Washington is counting on this version of Guzman to show up in 2009. The second base picture is a bit blurry, with Anderson Hernandez and Alberto Gonzalez battling for playing time. Their offensive numbers and defensive ability are similar. Corners Uncertainty at first base is one of Washington’s biggest concerns entering 2009. Considering Nick Johnson has spent time on the disabled list in each of his eight major league seasons, the Nationals would like to have a more reliable short-term option and some long-term stability. They hoped to achieve both by wooing free agent Mark Teixeira to D.C., but that attempt was unsuccessful. Johnson can be a solid contributor if healthy, but that “if” will keep general manager Jim Bowden awake at night. Ronnie Belliard could play first in a pinch. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is the lineup’s anchor, though he is still waiting for that breakout season. His power dropped after a left shoulder injury last May, but he still hit .283. His sparkling defense at third is one of few treats Nationals fans can look forward to. Outfield How Washington handles its surplus of outfielders will be interesting. The situation at first base could have an impact. Josh Willingham was acquired to play left field, but he played first on occasion in the minors. If Willingham plays left, the focus shifts to Lastings Milledge. Milledge played center all last season, but his arm strength and trouble judging fly balls make him better suited for left field. The Nationals want Milledge’s bat in the lineup, but Elijah Dukes may be a better option on both offense and defense. Dukes could play center or right, but putting him in right would displace Austin Kearns, a management favorite who is coming off an injury-shortened 2008. Kearns plays tremendous defense but has struggled at the plate. How he hits early could dictate the lineup. Wily Mo Pena is returning from a left shoulder injury that ruined his 2008, but he’ll have to hit his way into the mix. Catching The Nats wanted Jesus Flores to spend last season developing in Triple-A, but injuries created an opportunity for him in the big leagues and he quickly won the starting job. Management loves his demeanor, competitiveness and the way he handles the pitching staff. Flores, who turned 24 in October, hit .256 with eight homers and 59 RBIs. He threw out 11 runners on 58 stolen base attempts (19 percent). Wil Nieves proved his worth as Flores’ backup. He hit .261 and invigorated Washington’s young pitchers with his energy behind the plate. Luke Montz, who was called up last September, will likely start the season in Triple-A. Bench The Nationals hope they won’t have to rely on their bench as heavily as last season, when injuries forced most of the reserves into starting roles for extended periods. The odd man out in the outfield’s musical chairs — whether it’s Kearns, Milledge or Dukes — will provide a formidable bat in pinch-hitting situations. Willie Harris’ versatility in the field is an invaluable asset late in games or in case of injury. His career-high 13 homers last season were a surprise, and the importance of his clubhouse presence can’ t be minimized. Hernandez and Gonzalez are close to interchangeable at second base, and both are switch-hitters. Belliard is the type of veteran the Nats want at the plate in key situations. Management Manager Manny Acta is entering the final year of his contract. The Nationals have yet to exercise his 2010 option, so he is managing for his future. However, it’s wrong to blame him for Washington’s dismal 2008. Injuries decimated a roster that wasn’t stocked with enough talent to begin with. St. Claire, the pitching coach, was the only coach retained from 2008. Over the last two seasons, he turned a group of no-name hurlers into a respectable staff and could be considered the most valuable National. New hitting coach Rick Eckstein is eager to work in the majors after years with Team USA and in the minors. Bowden is always searching for creative ways to build, and no move of his could be considered a surprise. Final analysis The Nationals didn’t acquire much established talent from the outside during the offseason, so their improvement in 2009 will again depend on the progression of youngsters such as position players Zimmerman, Milledge, Dukes and Flores and pitchers Lannan and Balester. Their offense lacks the talent to contend, and it’s missing the left-handed power hitter management covets. The underwhelming starting rotation is inexperienced, and the back end again figures to be a merry-go-round of raw prospects and unimpressive veterans. The bullpen, an asset in 2007, is mostly unproven after being overhauled during the 2008 season. It’s a formula for another long summer in the nation’s capital. Beyond the Boxscore Only two Expos Following the offseason release of former closer Chad Cordero, the Nationals’ roster contains only two players who played for the Montreal Expos. First baseman Nick Johnson and pitcher Shawn Hill remain with the franchise more than four years after it relocated to Washington, but their respective tenures could end soon. Both players have lengthy injury histories that include season-ending injuries early in 2008, and the organization’s patience with both is wearing thin. No more homers Washington’s hitters eagerly anticipated the inaugural season at Nationals Park, which they hoped would be more hitter-friendly than cavernous RFK Stadium. Although many Nationals hitters deemed the new park “ fair,” they didn’t benefit from a long-ball bonanza. The Nationals hit 15 more homers on the road than they did at home. Washington’s pitchers, however, surrendered four more home runs at home than on the road. Banged up The Nationals placed eight of their nine Opening Night starters on the disabled list during the 2008 season. They lost 1,216 games to the DL in 2008, 44 fewer than in 2007. Washington overhauled much of its medical and training staff during the offseason, though the front office insisted the changes were unrelated to the team’s injury woes. Retool the pen Washington’s bullpen took a dramatic step backward in 2008 and was transformed by season’s end. In 2007, the group ranked fourth in the NL with a 3.81 collective ERA. It jumped to 4.18 last season, 10th in the league. Cordero sustained a shoulder injury on Opening Night, pitched in only six games and was released after the season. Jon Rauch, who closed during the first half of the year, was traded to Arizona in July. Setup man Luis Ayala lost his job and was traded to the New York Mets in August. Middle-inning righty Jesus Colome was released in December. The group of relievers that begins the 2009 season will be drastically different from that of a year ago. Farm System 2008 Top Draft Pick — The Nationals were thrilled that Destin Hood turned down a football scholarship to the University of Alabama and joined the organization, especially because their first-round pick, Missouri righthander Aaron Crow, did not sign. Hood, a second-rounder who turns 19 in April, overcame a slow start and batted .256 with 14 RBIs and six doubles in 86 at-bats in the Gulf Coast League. His switch from shortstop to left field was widely considered a success. He learned to be more aggressive chasing fly balls and to trust the instincts that made him a top-flight high school infielder. The Nationals don’t expect him in the big leagues anytime soon. 2007 Top Pick — Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State Mechanical problems in Single-A resulted in an 8–8 record, a 4.86 ERA and 4.1 walks per nine IP. 2006 Top Pick — Chris Marrero, 1B, Monsignor Edward Pace (Fla.) High School A seriously broken right fibula last June derailed his ascent, a significant setback considering Washington’s long-term hole at first base. 2005 Top Pick — Justin Maxwell, OF, Maryland A broken right wrist that was misdiagnosed cost him most of 2008. 2004 Top Pick — Ian Desmond, SS, Sarasota (Fla.) High School His glove is much closer to being major league-ready than his bat. 2003 Top Pick — Kory Casto, OF/IF, University of Portland Called up to D.C. due to injuries last season and hit .215 with a .297 OBP in 66 games. Other Prospects (age on Opening Day) CF Roger Bernadina (24) Speedster batted .125 during a 10-game midseason call-up but rebounded and hit .333 in 10 September games. RF Michael Burgess (20) Had 24 homers and 136 strikeouts in 401 at-bats at two Single-A levels in his first full season. OF Leonard Davis (25) Emerged from non-prospect status and hit .308 with 25 homers to earn Nationals Minor League Player of the Year honors. SS Esmailyn Gonzalez (19) “Smiley” hit .343 to win the Gulf Coast League batting title at age 18. More advanced leagues await him. LHP Jack McGeary (20) Part-time Stanford University student had 64 strikeouts and 13 walks in 59.2 innings in the Gulf Coast League. Statistician 3.98 >> Runs the Nationals averaged per game last season, third-worst in the National League. 13 >> Homers by outfielder Willie Harris in 2008, six more than his career total in seven previous seasons. 29,005 >> Average home attendance during the inaugural season at Nationals Park. 15 >> Rookies who played for Washington last season. 24 >> Losing seasons in the 40-year history of the Washington/Montreal franchise. 123 >> Errors committed by the Nationals last season, the most in the National League and second-most in baseball. 6 >> Losing streaks of at least five games that Washington endured last season. 1976 >> The last time the organization — as the Montreal Expos — lost 100 games in a single season (107) before reaching that milestone in 2008. 8–7 >> John Lannan’s record in his 21 quality starts last season. He had a 2.00 ERA in those games. Difference Maker Austin Kearns is coming off an injury-shortened season that reinforced the perception that he has been a bust since the Nationals traded for him in 2006. Now, one of baseball’s best defensive right fielders might be the odd man out in a crowded outfield that includes Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge. If Kearns can somehow produce some offense in his contract year, he could boost the lower half of Washington’s run-starved lineup and foster a midseason trade for a prospect or two. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.70.19