Washington Nationals have major personnel d …

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Washington Nationals have major personnel decisions to make By Thomas Boswell Monday, March 15, 2010 這篇文章老實說還蠻長的，有興趣的朋友就稍微多點耐心把它看完吧！不過這篇內文的重點其實版上的文章都已經有了，主要就是關於Desmond， Strasburg，Storen開季的方向還有討論是否該跟Dunn續約等等幾乎都是些老調重彈的問題Zzzz，只是多少加了些解釋和說明。沒興趣的朋友大致上看一下上色的部份就行了。以上！ The last weeks of spring training offer classic questions that a century of debate has never resolved. If you're a fan who loves to argue, which means everybody, then you're in heaven. If you're the club that faces those decisions, you lose hair every day. Right now, the Nats have just such quandaries everywhere they look. 在過去幾週的春訓當中，有好幾個典型的問題被人們丟出來詢問，這些問題不外乎就是那些彷彿快爭論了一個世紀，但到現在都還沒有解決的疑問。如果你是某個喜歡與人爭辯的球迷--這代表著所有的人--我要恭喜你，毫無疑問你現在已經在天堂了。如果你是某位球團高層，我相信面對這些抉擇你每天都因為壓力過大而害得頭髮不斷減少。而現在，國民隊的確有著許多為難之處。 Should they go with the red-hot rookie shortstop, Ian Desmond, on opening day or stick with the aging, expensive incumbent for one last year? Should they risk rushing an equally impressive rookie reliever, Drew Storen, into their bullpen, even though he signed his first pro contract just nine months ago? And do they push hard between now and opening day to sign Adam Dunn, their all-hit-no-field cleanup slugger, to an extension or risk losing him at the end of this year if he sticks to his word, won't negotiate during the season then goes free agent next winter? 究竟，他們到底該不該啟用目前在春訓打擊狀況絕佳的新人游擊手Ian Desmond，並且將他視為開幕戰的先發人選，或者是堅持讓已經開始老化而且價格又貴的Guzman繼續擔任應該是他在國民隊最後一年的先發？究竟，他們是否應該冒著有可能會Rush到備受矚目的新秀中繼投手Drew Storen的風險，仍堅持將他放進我們的牛棚裡，即使他在短短9個月之前才簽下了他的第一張職業合約？還有，國民隊是否應該趕在目前到開幕戰的這段時間內和Adam Dunn--這位彷彿每次都想把小白球幹出球場而全力揮擊的國民隊第四棒強打者--完成續約？或者，冒著今年球季結束後失去他的風險，等到Dunn成為自由球員後再來跟他談簽新約的事？畢竟Dunn 如果堅持他自己曾說過的承諾，那他將不會在季中協商有關他的合約的事情。這樣的話就只能等到Dunn在今年冬天成為自由球員之後才能開始討論。 Compared with these three problems, everything else is easy. Send Stephen Strasburg to the minors until June, thus delaying his free agent eligibility a year. It's good player development and good business, too. As for that rotation tangle, just let 'em fight it out. It's going to be a fascinating mess all year as injured arms return. However, the decisions about Desmond, Storen and Dunn -- none of them easy or obvious -- have long-term implications. 跟這些問題比較起來，其他事情就輕鬆多了。把Stephen Strasburg送到小聯盟去磨練到6月為止，如此就可以拖延他晚一年的時間成為自由球員。這對於Strasburg未來的發展和球隊未來的利益可說是一舉兩得。至於有關輪值的問題，就交給他們自己去競爭，尤其是當傷兵歸隊之後，接下來一整年就可以好好欣賞這些選手們的良性競爭了。然而，無論是關於Desmond、Storen還是Dunn的決策--先不論這些決策究竟是不容易的或者是顯而易見的--都將會產生深遠的影響。 GM Mike Rizzo has told Manager Jim Riggleman to pick his starting shortstop, Desmond or Cristian Guzmán. That's a skipper's call. But if Riggleman picks Guzmán, then Rizzo believes Desmond should play every day in the minors, even though he's had 2,749 pro plate appearances. That would have been a lot of seasoning even in Ted Williams's day, much less now. But Rizzo's strong preference is that Desmond play every day -- somewhere. GM Mike Rizzo已經告訴過總教練Jim Riggleman，請他決定究竟是讓Desmond還是Guzman 成為我們的先發游擊手。這是身為老船長的Rizzo的要求。但如果Riggleman最後選擇的是Guzman，那Rizzo就會讓Desmond回去打小聯盟，他相信天天出賽對他會比較好--即使Desmond已經在小聯盟打了2749個職業打數--這樣的打數在Ted William所處的那個年代，已經是必須好幾個球季所累積才能達到的數字了，而且恐怕現在Desmond所累積的數字還要更遠遠超過。儘管如此，Rizzo依舊會持續堅持Desmond必須天天出賽--不管是在任何地方。 There's a third option: Make Desmond a super-sub who starts at three different positions (shortstop, second base and outfield) in '10. Then he can take over at short in '11. These days, baseball has several valuable utility men who get more than 400 at-bats, such as Mark DeRosa, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe or Brendan Harris. One such role player, Ben Zobrist, even evolved into a star. But none of those players, when they were made utility men, were still projected as young standouts. You don't mess up the mind of a kid you still think may be a star as the Nats do Desmond. 這裡還有第三個選項：把Desmond當作是一個超級工具人，讓他今年先發守三個不同的位置--游擊、二壘以及外野，這樣他就能在明2010年正式接手成為正職的先發游擊手。這幾年，棒球界有幾位非常好用的工具人球員，而且他們甚至得到了超過400個打席，像是Mark DeRosa，Craig Counsell，Juan Uribe以及Brendan Harris。而其中一位同樣是屬於工具人角色的Ben Zobrist，他甚至進化成為了一位明星選手。但是當這些球員被定位是一個工具人打球的時候，並沒有任何一個人被期待能夠成為一位年輕且表現傑出的優秀選手。你不能冀望你把一個年輕人的定位整個打亂之後，還認為他能夠繼續擁有近乎明星等級的表現，現在Desmond也是同樣的道理。 Last year, at 24, the 6-foot-2, 210-pound Desmond finally went from a prospect with too many strikeouts and errors into the most exciting all-around player the Nats had, after Ryan Zimmerman and Nyjer Morgan. When the Nats came to D.C. in '05, you heard Desmond's name a lot. Then, his career blurred. Partly because of injuries, he just wasn't quite as good as hoped. 24歲，身高6呎2吋，重達210磅的Desmond，在過去是一個容易遭到三振和發生失誤的年輕新秀，然而在去年他卻變身了！成為國民隊繼Ryan Zimmerman和Nyjer Morgan 之後，令人驚豔的全方位選手。在05年國民隊剛搬到華盛頓的時候，你幾乎到處都可以聽到Desmond的名字。然而，Desmond的職業成績並不理想，應該說他並沒有發揮出他在預期中所該有的好表現，這當然有一部分是因為受傷的緣故。 Then, suddenly, last year, he was better than imagined. His OPS was .878 in the minors and .879 in a September call-up. He's not that good; Derek Jeter's career OPS is .847. But, for the last three years, Desmond's OPS has been .820. Guzzy's career number: .693. Now, in Viera, Desmond is on fire again, going 10 for 21 with 11 RBI, 5 extra-base hits, 2 steals and lots of range at short. 在這之後，去年他的表現突然變得比想像中的還要更好。去年他在小聯盟的成績， OPS高達.878，而在9月份被叫上大聯盟之後他的OPS甚至有.879，不過這當然不是他真正的實力；Derek Jeter生涯OPS也不過.847左右而已。但是在過去這三年， Desmond的OPS是.820的好成績，而Guzman的職業生涯呢？只有0.693。而在目前進行的春訓比賽當中，Desmond的打擊手感依舊火燙，21個打數中擊出 10支安打，其中有5支是長打，帶有5分打點，另外還有2次盜壘成功，同時也展現出他在游擊區廣大的守備範圍。 If Desmond starts at shortstop, what happens to Guzmán's midseason trade value? The last three years, he's hit over .300 combined. If he is on the bench and grouchy like Ronnie Belliard last summer, you may get little. 如果Desmond最後成為先發的游擊手，那Guzman在季中的交易價值會變得如何呢？在過去3年，總計他還是有超過3成的打擊率。如果他因為坐板凳發牢騷而變得令人難以忍受，就像去年的Ronnie Belliard一樣，那國民隊可能就得不到什麼好貨了。 The feeling here is that, assuming he finishes spring training strongly, Desmond should play every day. Find out the truth about his defense at short. Is he only a high-ball hitter that big leaguers will figure out? If he flops, it's better to find out now; don't go into '11 with a Desmond fantasy. 我的感覺是這樣：假設最後Desmond在春訓的表現非常優異，那就應該讓他每天先發。同時藉此機會觀察他在游擊區的防守能力究竟表現如何，以防如果他被大聯盟的投手發現他只是個會打快速球的打者呢？如果他失敗了，最好現在就立刻發現到這一點；這樣就不用在2011年仍抱著和Desmond有關的不切實際的幻想不放。 Storen is a paradox: He may be too good for his own good. "I see him the first time. He's unbelievable. Fastball, curveball, you just say, 'Wow!' " said Livan Hernandez. "The ball explodes." Storen則是個矛盾的存在：他將來的表現很可能遠比他本身所擁有的資質還要來得更加優異。「當我第一次看到他的時候，簡直是令人難以置信。」 Livan Hernandez說道。「快速球，然後是曲球，你只能說一聲『傑克！這真是太神奇了!』」「他的球看起來就像爆炸似的快速噴了出來。」 Because he's emotionally mature for 22, the temptation to put Storen in the bullpen early in '10, perhaps even on opening day, then push him into the closer's job in '11, may be great. But, for 50 years, precocity has usually been tragic career news for kid closers. Storen僅僅才22歲左右，還只是個容易情緒化的年輕人。這樣的球員當然會讓人產生某種誘惑，想盡快在今年就把他放進牛棚裡，甚至開幕戰當天就讓他上場投球，然後明年Storen就會接手終結者的角色。這建議聽起來似乎感覺不錯，不過當你50年後再回過頭來看就會發現，太早就把年輕人推去當終結者往往會導致他們的職業生涯產生悲劇。 Of all active closers, how many saved 20 before they were 25? Not Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman or Billy Wagner. Only Francisco Rodriguez and Huston Street. 在現任的所有終結者當中，有哪些人在25歲之前就達到20次以上救援成功的？ Papelbon，Mariano Rivera，Trevor Hoffman還有Billy Wagner？以上這些人都不對。答案是只有K-ROD以及Huston Street這兩位而已。 Young relievers' arms are at even greater risk than starters'. You can count on your fingers the relievers who've saved 20 games before age 25 who were not incinerated before age 30. A few were great: Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter. But it's more common when you close games at age 21 to 23, to end up with arm problems like Chad Cordero or the Orioles'Chris Ray. For years, most relievers were converted starters, so they went to the bullpen at older ages. That distorts the history books. But if the Nats put Storen's arm through ninth-inning strains before '12, his career may well mirror those of Gregg Olson, Bobby Thigpen and Mitch Williams. They had several fine years, made enough money for a lifetime but had little left in the tank by 28. 年輕中繼投手的手臂比起先發投手還要更容易受傷。你可以自己數數看有哪些在25歲以前就投出20次救援成功的投手在30歲之前還沒有爆掉的？嘛，當然還是有少數幾個投的還不錯的，像是Rollie Fingers，Goose Gossage，還有Bruce Sutter。但是更常見的是當你21~23歲就負責替球隊關門，最後就因為手臂受傷而不得不提早結束選手生命，例如Chad Cordero(囧)還有前金鶯的終結者Chris Rayro。多年來，大部分的中繼投手都轉作先發，因此他們都等到年紀增長到一定程度之後之後才進到牛棚，這個改變扭轉了歷史課本的內容。但如果國民在2012年以前就把Storen 推上火線負責第9局的任務，他的職業生涯將會變得和Gregg Olson，Bobby Thigpen以及 Mitch Williams等人相同。這些投手都曾經有好幾年投的非常成功，也賺到了有生之年足夠花用的金錢，然而他們一旦超過28歲之後就開始走下坡了。 The Nats' final puzzle of the spring is Dunn. He is, by all measures, one of the 15 best offensive players in the 16-team National League. And, at 30, he should be in his prime for several years. So he's a genuinely rare commodity: In his peak seasons, probably willing to sign for three years, a true cleanup man but also a fine fit to bat No. 5 if you develop another heart-of-the-order bat. 國民隊在春訓最後的一個難題就是有關於Dunn的合約。在國家聯盟16支球隊的所有球員當中，Dunn毫無疑問都是排在前15名的最佳打者之一。今年30歲的Dunn未來好幾年都應該是他職業生涯的黃金時期，因此他的確是個貨真價實的稀有商品。因此在Dunn的這段高峰期，國民隊應該會試著和他簽下一份長約三年的合約。他是一位真正的第四棒打者，同時如果能找到另一位核心打者的話，他也將是非常合適的第5棒人選。 However, there is the question of his defense: It is either very poor or else the worst in the history of spherical objects. Scouts generally say the former. Stat buffs swear it's the latter. Now, with every ball in every game charted, down to its parabolic trajectory, Dunn has been either the most prominent victim of these new stats, or the most exposed sinner. The only way he could rank worse would be if, when he actually caught a ball, he deliberately threw it into the stands. That's why the Nats got him late and cheap in '09. 不過，這裡有一個很嚴重的問題，那就是關於Dunn的守備能力。如果Dunn的守備不是非常差勁的話，那他應該就是球類運動史上最糟糕的防守者了。球探們通常會表示Dunn 是屬於前者，然而數據派卻發誓他絕對是屬於後者。現在，隨著每一場比賽的每一顆球都被徹底紀錄，到將這些紀錄做成的拋物線軌跡，每一樣紀錄都明確指出Dunn如果不是守備數據所顯示最悽慘的野手，就是最容易遭到猛烈抨擊的罪人。唯一有可能比他現在的守備還要更糟糕的情況是：當他接到球之後就故意把球用力丟到看台上去了。這就是為什麼國民能夠在2009年的自由市場上等到很晚而且又能便宜簽下Dunn的原因。 If the Nats can extend Dunn for three years for close to $40 million, they should do it -- and fast. His defense may improve. If it doesn't, he's still a bargain because the stat lovers have probably overshot in their zeal for quantifying. It's the way of things. They themselves may be the new inefficiency in the market. Dunn's defense should slash his price, but not slaughter it. If the Nats don't extend Dunn, as they signed Ryan Zimmerman to an extension moments before last opening day, they and their fans should understand the implications. When a player says he won't continue negotiations during the season, he usually means it. Then, after playing all season, risking injury, with no long-term security, when that player reaches free agency intact, he almost always leaves his old team. Feelings get hurt. 如果國民能夠跟Dunn延長3年的合約並且將價格壓到接近40MM左右，他們就應該馬上搞定這件事，而且要快。Dunn的守備可能會有所進步，如果沒辦法改進這一點，那他就還是個便宜貨--只因為統計學愛好者一定會盡其所能地將Dunn的守備能力加以數據化，這就是目前的情況。他們有可能會在自由市場上造就出一股新的低迷景況。Dunn的守備當然多少會降低他本身的價值，不過倒還不至於到任人宰割的地步。如果國民決定不跟Dunn續約--也就是說不採取如同去年在開幕戰之前跟Ryan Zimmerman 簽下延長合約這樣的的方式來走的話，國民和國民隊的球迷們就必須要了解到這樣的動作所代表的含意。而當一個選手表示他不想在球季間談合約的時候，他通常就是指這個含意。在打滿整個球季，而且還是冒著有可能受傷的風險，也沒有長期合約所保障的安全感，此時這位選手又成為完整的自由球員，幾乎都會選擇離開原本所屬的球隊。而這一點總是很傷感情。 Decisions, decisions. Losing the first 10 games in Florida, while annoying, will be forgotten quickly. How the Nats handle Desmond, Storen, Strasburg and Dunn will reverberate for years. 抉擇，緊接著必須做出決策。我們在佛羅里達的春訓賽是十連敗，這多少會讓人感到有些惱怒，不過這種事情很快就會被遺忘了。然而國民對於Desmond，Storen，Strasburg 以及Dunn等人的判斷和處理，將會有長達數年的深遠影響。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.135.43.84

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