[情報] John Sickels Top 20 Prospects for 2012
1) Bryce Harper, OF, Grade A: 80 power, 80 arm, 80 hype, 80 arrogance...but
produces the numbers to back that hype and arrogance up. He is not just a
power masher; he's got great instincts, and I have seen him make adjustments
within at-bats more rapidly than most major leaguers can. Even Christopher
Hitchens would believe in Harper.
2) Anthony Rendon, 3B, Grade A-: Borderline A. I want to see how his shoulder
is, if his power and arm strength come back fully, before giving him the
Grade A imprimatur. I still expect him to be an excellent player.
3) A.J. Cole, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B+. I really believe in his upside.
Needs to build stamina and refine his changeup, but if it comes together he
could be a Top 20 pitching prospect next year, perhaps more. (This grade is
very likely to be revised to a straight B+ once I do some comparisons)
4) Brad Peacock, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B+. Still has some command issues,
but his ERAs finally caught up with his components and his overall potential
in 2011. Will be ready before Cole but his upside is not quite as high.
Future 2/3 starter if all works out.
5) Brian Goodwin, OF, Grade B: Some risk here until we see him play, but I
love the combination of power, speed, and walks he showed in college. Swing
needs some work, but has all the tools and 20/20 potential.
6) Derek Norris, C, Grade B: Loads of power, walks, and scouting reports on
his defense are getting more positive each year. Ranking may seem high for
such a low batting average, but I see him as a Mike Napoli/Mickey Tettleton
type who can be productive even with a low average.
7) Alex Meyer, RHP, Grade B: I respect his upside as a guy with two
dominating pitches, but his command is still a work in progress, and such
tall pitchers often struggle to keep their mechanics in line. Could be a
superior starter, a closer, or a failure.
8) Matt Purke, LHP, Grade B-: Very difficult to grade properly until we see
what his arm strength looks like in the spring. Number two starter upside
(and a higher grade obviously) if his shoulder cooperates.
9) Tom Milone, LHP, Grade B-: At some point, the radar guns stop mattering.
The guy can simply pitch. He has little margin for error, but he will
probably have a better career than hundreds of guys who throw 10 MPH harder.
10) Steve Lombardozzi, 2B, Grade B-: The Tom Milone of hitters? Plays above
his tools and will likely continue to do so. Terrific defense and bat keeps
improving.
11) Sammy Solis, LHP, Grade B-: Velocity boost this year was pushing him into
B+ consideration, but the elbow injury throws everything into doubt now. No
word on if he'll need Tommy John yet.
12) Destin Hood, OF, Grade B-: Raw tools outfielder made big strides in the
second half, improved his plate discipline with more power production and
huge gains in baserunning and fielding. Has momentum.
13) Robbie Ray, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+: Limited pitch counts in Low-A,
but strong K/IP ratio. Reports on stuff and projectability are mixed, but he
did well for a 19-year-old in full-season ball.
14) Chris Marrero, 1B, Grade C+: Didn't seize control of first base job when
he had an opportunity, and suffered a hamstring injury in winter ball. Still
only 23 years old, production has never quite matched potential, but there is
still a chance it will.
15) Dan Rosenbaum, LHP, Grade C+: Nice sinker from the left side, good
breaking ball, changeup coming along, has very quietly built a strong
statistical history. Possible back-of-rotation starter or useful relief
option in a year or two.
16) Michael Taylor, OF, Grade C+: Tools outfielder still has tons of work to
do with the strike zone, but flashed power/speed skills in the Sally League.
Not to be confused with Oakland outfielder.
17) Dave Freitas, C, Grade C+: Borderline C. Draws tons of walks, has some
power, not great at nailing runners but doesn't give up many passed balls or
errors. We need to see him higher than the Sally League, but an interesting
player.
18) Rick Hague, INF, Grade C: Season lost due to injury. Should hit for
average with some power, position questionable.
19) Matt Skole, 3B, Grade C: Nice power potential from left side, good plate
discipline. Platoon issues, defensive problems and necessity to prove himself
outside NY-P preclude higher grade at this time, but has potential.
20) Jason Martinson, SS, Grade C: Draws walks, hits for power, steals bases,
but strikes out a lot and needs to show skills higher than Sally League.
OTHERS: Justin Bloxom, 3B-1B; Brian Dupra, RHP; Wirkin Estevez, RHP; Taylor
Hill, RHP; Blake Kelso, INF; Kevin Keyes, OF; Cole Kimball, RHP; Jeff
Kobernus, 2B; Pat Lehman, RHP; Rafael Martin, RHP; Estarlin Martinez, OF;
Tyler Moore, 1B; Randolph Oduber, OF; Eury Perez, OF; Josh Smoker, LHP';
Kylin Turnbull, LHP; Zach Walters, INF.
I like this system.
You can't go wrong at the top, where Harper and Rendon are the foundation of
a terrific offense, and both Goodwin and Norris (and possibly Hood and
Marrero) can develop into regulars. There are some very interesting role
player types backing them up. Lombardozzi could start for some teams and will
be a strong utility player at worst. If he doesn't pan out for some reason,
you have Hague, Martinson, Kobernus, Kelso, and Walters who could. Finding
solid college infielders who can be utility men and contribute something on
offense seems to be a focus.
The pitching group has questions and the cautious grades for some of them
reflect this, but there is a lot of upside. Cole, Peacock, and Meyer all have
the ability to be staff anchors. So do Purke and Solis if their health
allows. Milone deserves a real shot no matter what the radar guns say, and
Rosenbaum isn't far behind him. Turnbull, Dupra, and Hill are college arms
from the 2011 draft that could follow in their footsteps.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/20/2650433/washington-nationals-top-20-prospects-for-2012
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