[外電] A Fun Comparison for Denard Span

看板Nationals作者vg175 (非典型廢言)時間11年前 (2014/09/24 19:56)推噓6(6推 0噓 3→)

留言9則, 5人參與討論串1/1

A Fun Comparison for Denard Span http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/a-fun-comparison-for-denard-span/ by Dave Cameron - September 18, 2014 I’m an unabashed fan of Denard Span, and for my money, he remains one of the game’s most underrated players. But I’ll admit that when I saw this a few hours ago, even I was surprised. 我從不掩飾自己是厚臉皮的Span粉，在我看來，他還是最被低估的球員之一。不過我也承認當幾個小時前看到這些時，就算是我也被嚇到惹。 Below, a side by side comparison of Span and Jacoby Ellsbury since the start of the 2012 season. 下面是Span與Ellsbury自2012年開始的side by side比較表。 Name PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Span 1872 7% 11% 0.109 0.318 0.287 0.340 0.396 0.325 105 10.9 Ellsbury 1587 7% 14% 0.128 0.316 0.282 0.336 0.410 0.327 104 22.4 Off Def WAR Span 21.7 21.4 10.8 Ellsbury 28.9 18.6 10.7 Over the last three seasons, Span has essentially been Ellsbury’s equal. They walk the same amount, and while Ellsbury has a tick more power, Span strikes out a little less. Their slash lines are almost identical, and once you adjust for the offensive environments they’ve played in, Span’s wRC+ is actually a point higher, even with less power. Ellsbury’s a better base stealer, but UZR and DRS like Span’s defense a little more. They aren’t perfect clones, but the differences are small, and the overall value has been very similar. 過去三個球季Span基本上可與Ells勢均力敵。他們的走路比相同，Ells砲瓦稍強， Span風扇比則低一些。他們的三圍幾乎一致，而當你針對offensive environments做調整後，砲瓦較弱的Span的wRC+甚至高出1。 Ells是更好的壘包小偷，但UZR與DRS顯示Span防守能力較佳。他們幾乎是完美的複製人，差距很小，整體價值非常相似。 They’re basically the same age — Span was born in February of ’84, Ellsbury in September of ’83 — and have the same general set of skills. Ellsbury’s additional power allows one to see him as a player with a bit more upside — his 2011 season did happen, after all, when he hit as many home runs that year as Span has in his career — and he’s been a slightly better player over his entire career. If you look at their whole big league resume, Ellsbury is at +27 WAR in 3,800 plate appearances, while Span is at +22 in 4,000 plate appearances . On a per-600 PA basis, that gives Ellsbury roughly a +1 WAR advantage. 他們差不多同齡，Span生於84年二月，Ells則是83年九月，而skills也一樣。 Ells的額外砲瓦則讓他擁有更高的天花板，也的確在2011年球季發揮出來，當年他單季HR跟Span生涯總合一樣多，生涯成績Ells也比Span更好上一些。如果你回頭看他們的大聯盟資歷， Ells在3800個打席中WAR是+27， Span在4000個打席中WAR則為+22。以一個球季600打席為基礎計算， Ells的WAR粗估能比Span的+1。 But the entirety of that difference comes from one year (which occurred four years ago), when Ellsbury was maybe the best player in the game while Span dealt with symptoms from a concussion. That season happened, and it counts, but we’re now on year three of Span and Ellsbury being basically the same player. 但最大的差距只來自於一個球季（發生在四年前），當時Ells也許是聯盟中最好的球員，而Span則深受腦震盪困擾。自此之後的三年Span跟Ells基本上是一樣的。 The Nationals have a crowded outfield, and the assumption has been that they may look to trade Span this winter. But he’s going to make $9 million next year, and the market just valued a very similar player as a $22 million per year player on a long-term deal. It might be easy to think that Span is a replaceable part, given the team’s depth, let’s not underestimate Span’s impact on the Nationals, and assume that he’d be so easy to replace. Denard Span is really good. 國民的外野塞滿滿，或許這個冬天他們會試圖交易Span。不過他明年只拿你9M，而市場上評價非常相似的球員卻要一年22M還得一簽好幾年。如果從球隊的外野深度觀察Span似乎很容易就可以取代，但別低估Span能為國民帶來的衝擊，也別假設他真的這麼簡單就能被取代。 Denard Span真的很棒。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.34.47.100 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Nationals/M.1411559760.A.990.html