[外電] 361 2016 TOP 10 Prospects

看板Nationals作者vg175 (非典型廢言)時間9年前 (2015/12/04 19:25)推噓3(3推 0噓 0→)

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http://prospect361.com/nl-team-prospects/Washington-Nationals/ 1. Lucas Giolito (RHP) Scouting Report: Giolito has some of the best stuff in the minor leagues. He has two double-plus pitches in his fastball and curve ball. The fastball sits 93 to 95 MPH and can touch into the upper nineties. His curve ball, a hard offering at 80 to 83 MPH with nasty and deceptive break, is his best pitch and could be Clayton-esque in quality. He shows a feel for a change-up, but it’s clearly his third pitch. He can throw all of his pitches for strikes with very good command of his fastball and curve. Giolito 坐擁全小聯盟最好的stuff之一。他的速球與曲球都是plus-plus。速球約93-95也可到high-90s，變化幅度噁心的詐欺級強力大曲約80-83，是他最好的球種，品質甚至有可能發展到書僮的等級；他對變速也有球感，不過毫無疑問是排名第三的球種。他的所有武器都能取得好球數，其中速球與曲球的command更是非常優秀。 Despite his 6-foot-6 frame, Giolito has very good control. He gets this from his excellent and smooth mechanics, enhanced by the extension he gets and his high three-quarters delivery. The mechanics and stuff all point to a ceiling of a number one. While Alex Reyes and Tyler Glasnow have arguably better raw stuff, with Giolito’s combination of present stuff and command and control, the floor is higher. How high? At worse, I think he’ll be a low number two. 儘管身高六呎六吋，Giolito的control還是很好。這來自於傑出又滑順的投球機制與身體的延伸能力以及高四分之三出手，這樣的機制與stuff 都指向 ACE。就算Alex Reyes和Tyler Glasnow 可能擁有更棒的raw stuff，以目前 Giolito 所展現的stuff與控球能力來看Giolito的天花板還是比較高。有多高？我認為他最糟糕也能發展到比較差的二號。 Fantasy Impact: Giolito is owned in all Dynasty Leagues and should be owned in all 2016 re-draft leagues. The 2016 upside is Noah Syndergaard. The long-term upside is multiple Cy Young awards. 明年天花板是Noah Syndergaard，長時間則上看數屆CYA得主。 2. Trea Turner (SS) Scouting Report: When Turner was drafted, we all knew about his double-plus speed, but what I didn’t realize was how good of hitter he had become. He has plenty of bat speed with a short and compact swing and a good approach at the plate. He sometimes will get pull-happy and try to show off his raw power, but he’s best when making hard contact to all fields. Turner 被選上的時候大家都清楚他的plus-plus speed，問題是我不了解他會變成多好的打者。他出棒十分迅速且簡潔俐落，攻擊策略也很理想，有時會為了表現一下他的raw power 而爽爽拉，但他最棒的攻擊型態還是用hard contact把球打到各個角落。 His ability to control the strike zone, get on-base and steal bases will make him a quality leadoff batter in the majors. He also has all the makings of a high BABIP guy with a consistent .300 batting average possible. The speed will play and Turner should be able to build on his 18 stolen bases he posted in the minors leagues in 2015. 控制好球帶、上壘與盜壘的能力都將助他成長為大聯盟優質開路先鋒，他也具備高BABIP以及穩定維持三成打擊率的特質。speed會幫上大忙，Turner應能以今年小聯盟18次盜壘成功為基礎持續進步。 Fantasy Impact: Turner should have the inside track on the NL rookie of the year in 2016. Anything can happen and it usually does, but he has a chance to be a very good player, including next year. Once he’s fully acclimated to the big leagues, a line of a .310 hitter with 30 stolen bases, 100 plus runs scored and a handful of home runs are entirely possible. Turner應是明年NL年度新人的有力人選。雖說可能人算不如天算，但包括明年在內他也還是有機會成為一個非常棒的球員。一旦他適應大聯盟，.310打擊率、30盜、超過100的得分與少量全壘打都近在咫尺。 3. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP) Scouting Report: Lopez throws really hard. He routinely hits the upper nineties with his fastball while sitting 95 to 96 MPH. His secondary pitches are still emerging. He throws a 79 to 81 MPH curve ball that will flash plus but is still very inconsistent. He does show a feel for a change-up when he throws it, but that occurs very infrequently. As he moves to Double-A in 2016, it’s a pitch that will need to improve for him to turnover a more advanced lineup. Lopez球速真的很快。他的速球約95-96，也可以規律地衝上high-90s；第二球種還在努力，曲球79-81偶爾閃現plus 不過仍非常不穩定。變速球有些球感，但相當罕見。當他明年升上2A後變化球就必須改進，否則無法對抗更強大的打線。 As with Luis Severino, which is a very good physical comparison, Lopez stands 6 feet tall with a delivery that is very top-heavy. He does have a high three- quarter delivery which helps create plane and reduce fly balls (2.02 G/F). However, the delivery as with Severino is one that usually winds up in the bullpen. That said, Severino has been very good in his first 10 starts in the big leagues and Lopez could have similar early success. Luis Severino是相當好的體格比較對象。六呎的Lopez出手動作相當仰賴上半身，高四分之三出手能增加斜切也可減少飛球量（2.02滾飛比）。然而像 Severino這樣的出手最後通常會進牛棚。儘管如此Severino大聯盟生涯頭十場先發依舊表現出色，Lopez當然也有機會取得類似的成功起步。 Fantasy Impact: The Nationals will continue to push Lopez as a starter but even if he winds up in the bullpen, he has closer stuff. That’s a win-win scenario for fantasy owners. The upside is a number two starter with a strikeout an inning, low WHIP but a higher ERA than you would expect. He’ll be a Top 100 prospect for us with a chance to see Washington in the second half of next season. 國民將持續把Lopez當作先發培養，但就算他進牛棚也是頭擁有終結者stuff 的好牛。天花板是一局一次奪三振的二號先發，低WHIP 但ERA會比你預期得高。他會進入我們的百大新秀，明年下半季也有機會看他穿上國民制服。 4. Erick Fedde (RHP) Scouting Report: Fedde has a nice three-pitch mix that features a fastball that sits 91 to 94 MPH (T96) with a plus slider and a feel for a change-up. The stuff does play up because he is able to throw all of his pitches consistently for strikes. This was true in college as well as after his surgery. Fedde有三種不賴的球種可供混用，包括91-94極速96的速球、plus滑球、還 OK的變速球。stuff 引人注目是因為無論大學時期或手術後他都能持續用所有球種取得好球數。 He has a quick delivery with good extension and balance on his landing. There is some effort to his delivery and sometimes when he rushes, he can have bouts of wildness. However, when he slows things down, he can be very effective with a ceiling of a number three starter with a chance to be a half a grade better. 他的投球動作相當迅速，身體延展性非常好，前腳落地時也能保持平衡。不過投球時他會稍微用力催，一旦催過頭就會失去控球。然而只要緩下來他就能上看非常有效率的三號，甚至比傳統三號更好上一截。 Fantasy Impact: Fedde is a really good pitcher that flies under-the-radar in Dynasty League circles. He doesn’t have a premium arsenal but there’s enough there with the ability to throw strikes that should make him a very effective fantasy starter. The upside is eight strikeouts per nine with better than league average ratios. 雖然Fedde 沒有超優質武器但也夠用了，而且他有投好球的能力。天花板是每九局比聯盟平均更好的八次奪三振。 5. Wilmer Difo (SS) Scouting Report: Difo has plenty of athleticism that he shows in the field and on the base paths. While he spent the majority of his time at shortstop this year, assuming he stays with the Nationals, he’ll likely be moved to second. An infield of Rendon, Turner, Difo and Zimmerman would give the Nationals a plus defender at each position, not to mention long-term team control. Difo滿滿的運動能力在防守與跑壘時展露無遺。雖然生涯大部分時間都守游擊，但想前進華盛頓就得換防二壘。以Rendon、Turner、Difo 與Zimmerman 組建而成的防線能提供國民每個內野位置都有plus defender ，更不用說長時間的年資控制權了。 Offensively, Difo has a short compact swing but lacks leverage and therefore only projects to hit a handful of home runs annually with a ceiling of high single-digits. He does have double-plus speed with excellent base stealing instincts. In 466 minor league games, he has stolen 150 of 183 bases for an 82% success rate. Difo揮棒短小精悍不過缺乏以小搏大的能力，因此他能貢獻的全壘打最多也就年均近十支。他有plus-plus speed加上傑出的盜壘直覺，在他的166場小聯盟比賽裡嘗試過183次盜壘，成功150次，成功率82%。 Fantasy Impact: With the ability to steal 30-plus bases annually, Difo should be on all fantasy owner’s radar. He does need to improve his approach or the ceiling could drop from everyday regular to a utility player. Difo 有能力提供年均30+盜壘成功，但他得改善自己的攻擊策略否則天花板就會從先發選手降到工具人。 6. A.J. Cole (RHP) Scouting Report: As Cole has matured, his stuff has actually taken a step backwards. Just two years ago, his fastball was sitting 93 to 96 MPH but in his limited big league exposure, his fastball averaged 91.66 MPH. In his lone start, his fastball averaged 90.35; which probably explains the eight hits he gave up. Making matters worse, Cole pitches up in the strike zone and without premium velocity, he’s going to be susceptible to the long ball. His off speed pitches continue to be above-average with his change-up taking a big step up in 2015. He is throwing his slider more now than his curve ball and PitchFx data shows that it’s a quality pitch. Cole成熟之後stuff反而往下掉。兩年前他的速球還能落在93-96，但短暫的大聯盟之旅卻只繳出91.66的均速，唯一一次先發更剩下90.35。這或許可以解釋為何他會被當成沙包打。更嚴重的是沒球速掩護的Cole如果把球丟進好球帶就會被轟得很慘。今年變速球取得很大的進展，也是平均之上的球種；目前的他使用滑球的量也高於曲球，根據PitchFX 資料觀察這顆滑球的品質也很不錯。 Cole’s pitching mechanics are very clean and repeatable. He has outstanding balance with good posture which is all contributing to him throwing a ton of strikes. While that’s great, with his arsenal backing up a bit and Cole liking to pitch up in the zone, continued success in the big leagues is going to be very difficult. The Nationals might want to introduce a two-seamer into the mix to neutralize some of the fly balls that he is giving up. Cole能穩定重複那非常乾淨的投球機制，平衡感傑出的姿勢可以幫助他投出許多好球。即使如此，只要stuff 回不來，加上Cole又傾向把球投進好球帶上方，這都會讓他大聯盟的成功之路變得非常難走。球團也許會要他開始混用二縫線來減少被打的飛球量。 Fantasy Impact: My ceiling for Cole has drop from a number two starter to a three last year; and now to a four. I’m worried about the reduction in velocity and his tendency to give up home runs. It’s not a recipe for success at the highest level and fantasy owners need to set their expectations accordingly. 去年我對Cole的天花板從二號降到三號，現在是四號。我擔心他下滑的球速與挨轟趨向，這些都不是更高階層的生存方式。 7. Andrew Stevenson (OF) Scouting Report: Stevenson has two plus skills. He’s an outstanding defender with comps to another recent SEC centerfielder, Jackie Bradley Jr. His other plus skill is his foot-speed. Not only does he have sub 4.1 times from home to first, he has great instincts on the base paths and will be a threat to steal 40 plus bases annually. Stevenson擁有兩種plus skill：驚人的防守能力能比肩另一位SEC中外野手 Jackie Bradley Jr. （Southeastern Conference Baseball Tournament，大學聯賽之一），還有一種plus skill則是跑速。不只是從本壘到一壘只需 4.1秒，他還有很棒的跑壘本能，能挑戰年均40+盜壘成功。 The hit tool is very contact-oriented with no leverage and therefore very little over the fence power. He does have physical strength, but he just doesn’t incorporate his strength into his swing. 打擊非常仰賴contact，沒什麼驚人power。他的身體的確很有力量，不過就是沒辦法運用到揮棒上。 Fantasy Impact: The ceiling for Stevenson is Ben Revere with a realistic ceiling of a fourth outfielder. However, with his ability to steal bases, he should be on all Dynasty League owner’s radar. He should be rostered in all Dynasty Leagues with 250 or fewer minor leaguers. FB天花板是Ben Revere，不過現實中的天花板更可能是四號外野手。 8. Rafael Bautista (OF) Scouting Report: Bautista’s carrying tool is double-plus speed that he shows both on the base paths and in the outfield. He does make great contact with a slappy-swing that is void of much power. He’s simply trying to get on base and then use his wheels to make things happen. Bautista 的賣點是展現在跑壘與防守雙方面的plus-plus speed。他會用盡一切手段製造contact，但也因此無法提供power；他只是純粹把目標擺在上壘然後用腳下的風火輪製造機會。 The big concern with Bautista is whether his approach will work once he moves to the upper minor leagues. Even speedsters like Billy Hamilton and Ben Revere have had to develop more strength to hang in against premium velocity. However , at age 23, there is concern that Bautista will develop enough strength to be more than just a fourth outfielder. Bautista最大的疑慮是當升上小聯盟更高階層後他的攻擊策略還有沒有用。就算是Billy Hamilton或Ben Revere這種等級的腿哥都得培養更多力量應付更快球速，然而Bautista 已經23歲，他能否養出足夠的power以避免只當個四號外野是個問題。 Fantasy Impact: The upside for Bautista is Ben Revere. In XXX plate appearance in 2015, Revere struck out XX times while walking only XX times. If you extrapolate Bautista’s stat line out in 2015, it comes very close to what Revere did this year. Of course, Revere did it in the majors and Bautista is only in High-A. However, there’s enough there for fantasy owners to bite. I would consider rostering him in leagues with 250 or fewer minor leaguers. 天花板是Ben Revere 。今年Revere的XXX個打席裡被三振XX次，只選到XX次保送。如果你攤開Bautista今年數據會發現跟Revere非常接近，不過Revere 是在大聯盟打滾而Bautista只打到A+。 9. Chris Bostick (2B) Scouting Report: I’ve long been a fan of Chris Bostick. He’s a five tool player with speed, pop and good contactability. Granted, none of the tools are plus, but the sum of the parts are definitely better than any individual skill. He has premium bat speed with the chance for future above average power. He’s also a good runner with excellent instincts on the base paths. While there’s an outside shot for 20 HR/20 SB upside, a more realistic ceiling is a 15/15 player. 我喜歡Chris Bostick有段時間了。他是five tool guy，有speed，有power ，contact能力也很棒。當然了他沒有任何plus tool，但加總起來也絕對比只有一種skill 特別突出要來得好。他有很優質的揮棒速度，未來有機會得到超過平均的power。他也是跑壘本能優異的跑者，即使有上看20/20的空間還是15/15更接近現實。 Since he was drafted in 2011, he has improved his contact every year. He’s still aggressive at the plate and just doesn’t walk much. He does have very good hand-eye coordination and with his ability to barrel the ball, he should be an average hitter at the highest level. 打從2011年被選上開始他就不斷精進自己的contact 。他還是很積極出棒，不大選保送；手眼協調性非常好，加上用球棒咬住甜蜜點的能力，他在更高階層應能成為打出平均打擊率的打者。 Fantasy Impact: I still believe Bostick is a big leaguer, but he’s best suited at second or the outfield and I just don’t think that will happen in Washington. Once he gets into the right situation, I think the upside is a 15 HR/15 SB player with a decent average but with a low on-base percentage. That should be enough for a solid middle infielder in a deeper fantasy league. 我依舊相信Bostick 屬於大聯盟，但最適合他的位置是二壘或外野而我不認為他能在華盛頓找到這兩個位置。一旦得到最適當的定位，我想他有 15/15 的天花板與不錯的打擊率。只不過上壘率會偏低就是了。 10. Austin Voth (RHP) Scouting Report: Voth is more command and control over stuff. He throws a three pitch mix with a fastball that sits 89 to 91 MPH, a change-up that has good deception and a curve ball that has taken a step up this year. None of the pitches though are plus but he can throw each for strikes with the ability to vary speeds to give hitters a variety of looks. Voth的command與control比stuff優秀。他有三種球種搭配使用：包括89-91 的速球，變化幅度優秀的變速球，以及今年有所進步的曲球。他不具備任何 plus級球種，不過他的三種武器球都能取得好球數。他也有用速差迷惑打者的能力。 Voth has solid pitching mechanics and gets more plane on his fastball than his 6-foot-1 frame would suggest. He’s able to repeat his delivery which explains his plus control. Voth有不錯的投球機制，速球斜切幅度超過他六呎一吋身材該有的樣子。他能重複複製投球動作，這也正好可以解釋為何他有plus control。 Fantasy Impact: Voth should see time in the major leagues next year and could be an interesting guy to draft in a draft-and-hold league. While there’s nothing that sets Voth apart, he throws strikes and will keep the ball in the ballpark and that should give him enough upside to make him a back-of-the- rotation starter. Voth明年有機會上大聯盟。就算沒有特別突出的賣點，投好球與不挨轟的能力也夠讓他上看輪值後段先發了。 2016 Emerging Player Victor Robles (OF) There has been a lot of buzz about Victor Robles this year and after seeing him play in only one game, I concluded that the buzz is in fact true. He’s extremely athletic with premium bat speed and strong hands that point to future plus power. At 18-years-old, he has an idea of what he’s doing at the plate with the ability to adjust his swing when the situation dictates. Finally, he’s a plus runner and the 46 stolen bases in 60 attempts are just a taste of his upside. He could be special and if you’re in a fantasy league, now might be the last time to jump on the Robles band wagon. 今年有不少人對著Victor Robles 高潮。就算只看過一次他的比賽，我也興奮了。他有超強體能、優秀揮棒速度與強壯手腕，在在指出未來將長出plus power ；他才年僅18就清楚自己站在打擊區時該做什麼，也能試情況調整揮棒。最後，他是個plus跑者，60次盜壘嘗試46次成功也僅只牛刀小試而已。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.34.47.100 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Nationals/M.1449228324.A.D38.html