[原文] Thorn 的詛咒
大致是說 離開籃網的球員大概的趨勢 看起來還真的蠻恐怖的
The Curse of Thorn - Scarier than Ever
January 12th, 2009, 8:09 am by NetIncome
You could call it the “Curse of Thorn” – an affliction that affects
players once they are traded bought out or otherwise let go by the Nets’
President of Basketball Operations.
Rod Thorn has had an uncanny ability to tell when his players are on the
downside of their career. With the Jason Kidd trade, the “curse” was once
again tested. Typically, Kidd’s averages went way down, from near triple
double averages to triple singles.
In his 51 games with the Nets last season, Kidd averaged 11.3 points, 10.4
assists and 8.1 rebounds, shooting a miserable 36.6% overall and 35.6% from
the arc. In his 29 games with the Mavs, those numbers plummeted, to 9.9, 9.5,
and 6.5 although his shooting did improve to 42.6% and 46.1%. And while he
had 12 triple doubles last season in New Jersey, he had only one in Dallas.
In the playoffs, the numbers dropped further, to 8.6 points, 6.4 assists and
6.8 rebounds…and Chris Paul ran by him relentlessly. This season, the
decline has continued with Kidd averaging 8.8, 8.3 and 6.5.
It was the playoffs that made people notice how Kidd had declined. It wasn’t
just the point spread between him and Paul. There was the broad agreement
that Kidd, who was spoken of in the same breath as Oscar Robertson and Magic
Johnson in January, was being described as “done” in May. Kidd did win his
second Olympic gold in Beijing this summer, but played few minutes.
There are exceptions to the Curse, like Alonzo Mourning, but his was a
special case, involving kidney surgery and a desire to go home to Miami for
one last and, as it turned out, successful shot at a championship. Anthony
Johnson has also done well since the Nets dumped him…and of course, there’s
Stevie Jackson, who Thorn dropped unceremoniously in 2001. In spite of
behavioral issues, Jackson is now a bona fide 20 point a game scorer and
(sometimes) a leader in Golden State. And, oh yeah, he has a ring, won with
the Spurs at Nets’ expense. Eddie House, too, did well after leaving the
Nets, becoming an intregral part of the Celtics’ championship team.
You can argue that the Nets have kept some players too long, like Jason
Collins and yes, like Kidd, but for the most part, Thorn has done well. A
NetsDaily statistical analysis of what happened to more than a dozen former
Nets—plus almost-Net Shareef Abdur-Rahim—shows marked career declines, both
in terms of traditional measures, like scoring and rebounding, as well as in
value…and health.
Take a look:
Stephon Marbury: The Curse begins here. Marbury hasn’t had such a calamitous
fall on his individual stat sheet but more importantly, everyone knows that
in the seven years since Thorn traded Marbury for Kidd, “All Alone 33〃s
value has plummeted. In the years leading up to the trade, Marbury had
averaged 21 points and 8.2 assists. He had been All-NBA. Since then, there
has been a slight dropoff statistically, to 19.4 and 7.4. But the real
decline is in his value. After last season’s performance–complete with a
one-game strike, a unanimous vote of no-confidence by his teammates, a
lengthy bereavement leave, a locker room ban, and ankle surgery–not to
mention career lows of 13.9 and 4.7, Marbury was a lot more “done” than
Kidd. This season? Don’t even start. He hasn’t.
Keith Van Horn: In his five years with the Nets, ending with his trade in
August 2002, Van Horn averaged 18.2 points and 7.6 rebounds over 314 games.
In the next four, Van Horn averaged 13.4 points and 5.8 rebounds and played
in 261 games for four teams, the Sixers, Knicks, Bucks and Mavs. His three
point shooting did have an uptick, from 34.6% to 38.1% but no one noticed. Of
course, he did help the Nets at the end of last year, agreeing to come out of
retirement to accept a $4.2 million deal from Mark Cuban and be traded as
part of the Kidd deal. (Is there a reverse Curse for players who come back?
Does it entail having someone else pay them $4.2 million?)
Todd MacColloch: In his lone year with the Nets, “Big Todd” played a vital
role until a mysterious foot injury slowed him late in the season. He
averaged 9.7 points and 6.1 rebounds and Kidd called him the best big man he
played with. Then after being traded to Philly, he missed 40 games and had
significantly lower numbers: 7.1 and 4.7. Moreover, it was his last year in
the NBA. The foot injury wasn’t an injury at all. It was a genetic condition
that hurt his ability to walk. He did win several million dollars in an
arbitration and is now an analyst for the Sixers’ radio network…and
championship level pinball player but he never played again.
Dikembe Mutombo: The man Van Horn and MacColloch was traded for, Mutombo had
astounding numbers on arrival in New Jersey. For his career, he was averaging
12.3 points and 12.3 rebounds, having already passed the 10,000 career mark
in both. More impressive was his shot-blocking, a gaudy 3.4 per game. But
Mutombo suffered a broken wrist, his first major injury, in New Jersey and
didn’t fit well in the Nets’ offensive scheme. More importantly, rule
changes, like the defensive three second rule, hurt him. So, Thorn bought him
out at more than $30 million, the biggest buyout in NBA history, then and
now. His career has since tailed off considerably. In the four and a half
years since the buyout, Mutombo’s numbers are 3.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and
1.2 blocks. He’s back with Houston, at age 42.
Kenyon Martin: The Nets were unwilling to pay Martin the $92.5 million Kiki
Vandeweghe ultimately paid him. Lucky for Thorn. Kmart’s numbers in New
Jersey were super: 15.1 points and 7.6 rebounds plus two trips to the NBA
Finals. In his four years with the Nets, he did miss an average of 11 games a
season, but once he moved to Denver, he went into a downward physical spiral.
His numbers there are not that far off his numbers in New Jersey, 13.5 points
and 6.8 rebounds, but games to lost to injury—and microfracture surgeries—
mounted. In his five years with the Nuggets, KMart has missed 134 games or
more than one-third of all of his team’s games…that’s more than any player
in the NBA over that period. This year, both he and Denver are doing better,
with Martin averaging 12.9 points and 6.6 rebounds. But is that worth the
$14.4 million he makes this season and the $46.6 million he’s still owed
over the rest of his contract?
Richard Jefferson isn’t playing as well as he did in New Jersey although he
isn’t playing that badly either. Still the second highest scoring Net in
team history was averaging only 17.3 points (down from 22.6 last year) on
only 42.7 percent (down from 46.6) and 2.1 assists (down from 3.1) entering
Friday’s game. He even takes three fewer foul shots than his career-high 8.3
per game a year ago. Give the Curse some time to work.
Kerry Kittles: Nets’ fans were furious the summer of 2004 when the team
traded Kerry Kittles to the Clippers for a second round pick and a $10.2
million trade exception. The Nets even had to send $1.5 million to the Clips.
Bad trade for LA. Kittles played in 11 games in 2004-05 and has not played
since. He went from a career averages of 14.3 points and 37.8% three point
shooting with the Nets to 6.3 points and 33.3% in those 11 games. Kittles
gave assistant coaching a shot last year but hasn’t been seen much this
year, as he tries to complete an MBA.
Lucious Harris: After averaging 10 points for the three prior years, he
dropped to below seven in 2003-04 and the Nets bought him out for $1 million
on a $2.6 million contract. The deal was not popular even though he had a bad
back. Cleveland liked what they had seen in the Nets’ two trips to the
Finals and so signed him. But the back problems that worried Thorn got worse
and he averaged only 4.3 points and shot only 32.3% from the arc for the Cavs
in 2004-05, his last year in the league. In his seven years with the Nets, he
had averaged 6.2 points and shot 34.1%.
Aaron Williams: Thorn’s first free agent pickup in 2000, he was productive
big man off the bench for the two Finals teams. During his four plus years in
New Jersey, Williams averaged a solid 7.2 points and 2.9 rebounds in 336
games. As a starter the year before Kidd arrived, he had averaged 10.1
points. But early in the 2004-05 season, the Nets began trying to move
Williams, offering him for Sasha Pavlovic and Dahntay Jones. No takers. Then
he was sent to Toronto in the Vince Carter deal. He played for the Raptors
and Clippers, but minimally. In three plus years, he averaged only 4.7 points
and 2.5 rebounds and only 130 games. He was cut by the Clippers late last
season and is out of the game.
Eric Williams: The other Williams in the Carter deal, he played in only 21
games for the Nets, having spent nearly a decade elsewhere in the league. He
had a reputation as a solid defender, a decent shooter and a glue guy. Plus,
he’s from Newark. In 499 career games prior to being traded, Williams had
respectable numbers: a career average of 9.7 points. He was averaging 12.6
points and shooting 42.5% from beyond the arc at the time of the Carter
trade. Now out of the league, his last three years were spent in three
different cities, with minimal court time in any of them, playing only 159
games. He scored at a 4.9 point clip. He too is done.
Marcus Williams, dealt this season, is perhaps the most striking example of
the Curse. Once seen as a draft steal, he was a member of the NBA All-Rookie
team in 2006-07. But poor conditioning, a lack of defense and a general
sullenness pushed the Nets to trade him for a heavily protected first
rounder. In his two years with the Nets, Williams averaged 6.2 points and 3.0
assists in 16 minutes a game over 132 games. Since joining the Warriors, he’
s scored exactly nine points in seven games and is deep in Don Nelson’s dog
house.
The $15 Million Men: Brian Scalabrine and Mikki Moore: That’s the amount of
contracts signed by Scalabrine and Moore after they rejected lesser deals
from the Nets. Neither seems to be worth it. Scalabrine has averaged less
than three points a game in Boston, a drop of a point per game from his time
with the Nets. And while “Veal” was a fan favorite in New Jersey, he was
the subject of boo-birds in Boston…until last year’s championship season.
Then, he became the human equivalent of a Red Auerbach cigar. He, House and
Stevie Jackson are the only former Nets to win a ring. Moore’s scoring
numbers in Sacramento dropped a bit last season from his time in New Jersey,
9.8 to 8.5. This season, however, his production has been poor, with averages
of 4.2 points and 4.0 rebounds. He has a buyout next season…and may have to
find work elsewhere.
Shareef Abdur-Rahim: A special case, no doubt, but an instructive one. At the
time the Nets offered him a $35 million deal in 2005, he was one of the league
’s premier scorers upfront, with an 18.1 ppg career average as well as a
solid rebounder, pulling down 7.6 per game. He had once scored 50 points in a
game. But the Nets thought they detected a knee problem and wanted to rework
the contract. Abdur-Rahim declined and the Kings’ doctors took a look at the
same MRI’s and decided SAR was worth the risk. He wasn’t. Abdur-Rahim
averaged only 10.7 points and 6.8 boards in the next three years. He had to
retire this year because of arthritis on the same knee the Nets were worried
about.
Some other players could have made our list: Rodney Rogers, Marc Jackson,
Linton Johnson III, etc. all now out of the league. Jeff McInnis falls into a
whole separate category: competing curses. There are others as well: Jason
Collins, done in by nagging injuries; Antoine Wright, on and off the bench in
Dallas, Jamaal Magloire, seeing some time in Miami after failing in Dallas
and Malik Allen, hanging on in Milwaukee, were all moved last season and none
have had comebacks.
Thorn’s strengths and weaknesses are well known among Nets’ fans. His
trades are usually on the phenomenal end of the scale, his draft record is
mixed at best. Nenad Krstic, was a lottery-level talent taken outside the
lottery and Josh Boone is solid for a player taken at #23, but many picks
have been disastrous. Sean Williams may have looked good last year and Marcus
Williams two years ago, but neither is currently on the team. Wright and Mile
Ilic were both busts, Wright mainly because of where he was taken…#15. This
year’s group looks a lot better with Brook Lopez a steal of the draft and
Ryan Anderson about to get his big chance with Yi Jianlian’s injury. Until
this season, free agency was even worse. Jarvis Hayes and Keyon Dooling have
been terrific and although Eduardo Najera has been hurt, he’s now coming on
strong. (One strong piece of advice re free agency: Thorn shouldn’t be
allowed to sign another player whose last name begins with “M”, considering
how well he has done with Alonzo Mourning, Ron Mercer, Lamond Murray, Jeff
McGinnis, and Jamaal Magloire.)
Now, the “Curse of Thorn”–will be tested again with Nenad Krstic who the
Nets declined to re-sign this summer and is now in a Thunder uniform. As for
Kidd–the Curse’s biggest test, he should have been careful what he wished
for. Wishes often turn into curses.
http://www.netsdaily.com/blog/?p=585
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