[外電] Mailbag: How secure is Trembley?
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Mailbag: How secure is Trembley?
Beat reporter Fordin answers Orioles fans' questions
After seeing Lee Mazzilli and Sam Perlozzo dismissed rather quickly into
their tenure, how secure is Dave Trembley's job?
-- Randy H., Jacksonville, Fla.
Both Mazzilli and Perlozzo had to deal with outsized expectations that proved
unattainable, and Trembley has the good fortune -- or bad, depending on your
perspective -- to inherit a rebuilding team. In short, that means his job is
relatively safe for now but that he may wind up saddled with a record that
doesn't reflect his managing abilities.
When you measure the manager next to the team's expectations, the Orioles
chose exceedingly well. Trembley has a proven track record of working with
young players honed over two decades as a Minor League manager, and he also
has a no-nonsense and back-to-basics approach that will play well with a team
in need of direction.
Many analysts around baseball peg Baltimore as a fifth-place team that could
lose more than 90 games, but Trembley's performance will be judged more in
terms of how quickly the team's young players progress. He'll preside over a
lightly tested pitching staff with a lot of potential, and he'll be charged
with getting the most out of a modest offense.
Trembley's blend of enthusiasm and emphasis on stressing the small stuff make
him a virtual certainty to finish the season as manager, but it's unclear
whether the Orioles will commit to him past that point. Baltimore may not be
any closer to contention in 2009, which may well play a role in whether
Trembley is granted a contract extension.
With the rebuilding process under way, what are the Orioles' prospects of
developing some power hitters (30-plus homers) for the friendly confines of
Camden Yards?
-- Chris K., Bedford, Va.
In the short run, they're not particularly good. Right fielder Nick Markakis
may be on the verge of reaching that plateau, but it could be a few seasons
before the Orioles have another homegrown slugger to keep him company.
Outfielder Nolan Reimold, who should start the season at Triple-A Norfolk, is
the team's most advanced power-hitting prospect.
Baltimore also has two high-ceiling offensive players -- catcher Matt Wieters
and third baseman Billy Rowell -- who have yet to prove themselves at
Double-A. Wieters, last year's first-round Draft pick, will likely start at
Class A Frederick and progress to Double-A Bowie by the end of the season.
Rowell, meanwhile, may spend the whole year at Frederick.
The Orioles also have former catcher Brandon Snyder, who has moved out from
behind the plate and will be forced to hit more at an infield corner. But
after that group, the offensive cupboard appears to be largely bare.
Baltimore does have another high pick in this year's First-Year Player Draft,
though, and may stock more potential sluggers via trade.
The Draft focus in recent seasons has been on pitching, and the results can
be seen all throughout the organization. The Orioles are blessed with a
bounty of arms that should stock their staff for years to come. Pitching is
spread from the lower rungs of the organization all the way to the top, a
credit to the team's current talent evaluators.
I'm wondering how Adam Loewen is holding up after his season-ending injury
last year. What are the chances that he has of a productive season for the
O's in 2008?
-- Nick B., Harrisonburg, Va.
Nobody will really know how healthy Loewen is for sure until he steps on a
mound in Spring Training, but the Orioles have reported that he's passed all
the checkpoints in his recovery from a stress fracture in his pitching elbow.
The injury was deemed non-threatening because it didn't impact his ligaments,
but it did rob him of a year of development.
Loewen is one of the team's brightest talents, and his progression will say a
lot about Baltimore's season. The southpaw showed a lot of promise in six
early-season starts last year, but he's yet to iron out his command at the
big-league level. He should get that chance this season, and the Orioles
believe he'll get better with more experience.
After drafting him fourth overall in 2002, Baltimore believed in Loewen so
much that it gave him a Major League contract to make sure he signed, an
arrangement that caused him to be out of options before he threw a pitch in
the big leagues. Now, he has to do all his learning with the Orioles and
can't pitch in the Minors without being exposed to waivers.
Look for Loewen to have some bright spots and some rocky moments in 2008, but
also look for him to emerge from the season stronger for his trials and
tribulations. He was touted as a special talent as an amateur and has a
maturity and confidence well beyond his years, so Loewen is one reason to
watch the Orioles in '08 and beyond.
While Radhames Liz was named the 45th best prospect by MiLB.com, there seems
to be a lot of question of how the Orioles will use him. Are they more likely
to use Liz as a starter or reliever long-term?
-- Greg B., Richmond, Va.
My personal opinion is that Liz will wind up as a reliever, but the Orioles
are determined to give him every chance to stick as a starter. The
right-hander has a powerful fastball that's somewhat reminiscent of teammate
Daniel Cabrera, but he wasn't able to control it in his brief big-league
audition and seemed more comfortable working out of the bullpen.
Liz was downright dominant at Bowie last year, notching an 11-4 record with a
3.22 ERA and 161 strikeouts in 137 innings. He also walked 70 batters,
though, a trait that could hurt him against more advanced hitters. Liz will
likely open the season as the ace at Triple-A Norfolk, but he could surprise
and earn a big-league job in Spring Training.
Liz has averaged more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings in the Minor
Leagues, which is an absolutely eye-popping number. He's proven to be largely
unhittable, which would make a transition to a relief role relatively
painless. Baltimore could easily spot him in the bullpen tomorrow, but that
might damage his chances of maturing as a starter.
For now, though, it's got to be tempting for the Orioles to send him to
Triple-A and see what happens. Baltimore has several more polished candidates
for a back-end rotation slot -- including but not limited to Garrett Olson,
Troy Patton and Brian Burres -- and may have more to gain from allowing Liz
to progress at his own pace.
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