[外電] Five Questions: Baltimore Orioles
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Five Questions: Baltimore Orioles
by David Gassko
March 28, 2008
1. What will happen with Brian Roberts?
With all the rumors there have been about various possible deals, the Orioles
better trade him to justify the cost of all the paper that’s been spent
discussing all the different scenarios. Though a trade to the Cubs has seemed
like the most logical ending to this saga, Baltimore President of Baseball
Operations Andy MacPhail said this week that option is off the table.
You have to believe that Roberts will be traded at some point, and probably
sooner rather than later. While the Orioles do want to get as much as they
can for him, there is little point to hanging onto a 30-year-old,
good-but-not-great second baseman who would be incredibly useful to a
contender but does nothing for a team that has pretty much no shot at making
the playoffs.
Roberts does have another year left on his contract, though, so teams may be
willing to give up substantial value for him at the trade deadline, much like
Mark Teixeira last year. I would expect him to be gone by then—if he isn’t,
you really have to question what the Orioles are thinking.
2. Is Adam Jones a franchise cornerstone?
He'd better be. Jones was the cornerstone of the package Seattle sent over to
Baltimore in a trade for ace Erik Bedard in February. With a 13-5 record and
3.16 ERA last year, as well as an incredible 221 strikeouts in 182 innings,
Bedard was Baltimore’s first real ace since Mike Mussina. However, Bedard is
also 29 and a free agent after the 2009 season, meaning that he didn’t
really fit in with the Orioles’ rebuilding plans.
Jones does. Only 22, Jones projects for an .832 OPS this season, according to
The Hardball Times Season Preview, and more impressively, we forecast that
number to go up to .915 by 2010. That would have placed Jones first among all
center fielders last year. In addition, Jones looks to be at least an average
defender is center field, which is actually pretty darn valuable.
All in all, Jones is exactly the type of player you want to get back for an
ace like Bedard. While there are no guarantees with prospects (or even
established players), Jones is as good a bet to be one of the top center
fielders in baseball over the next decade as almost anyone else, and a nice
piece for the Orioles to build around.
3. Will Daniel Cabrera ever break out?
This is my third year writing the “Five Questions” column for the Orioles,
and Cabrera has figured prominently in each one. In 2006, I wrote:
Daniel Cabrera is only 25; he's 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, and he throws his
fastball in the triple digits. Cabrera was 4 percent better than league
average last season after being 21 percent worse than league average the year
before, according to DIPS 3.0. While he improved his home run and walk rates,
the greatest improvement for Cabrera came in his strikeout rate; he struck
out 8.76 batters per nine innings last season, after posting a 4.63 K/9 in
2004. Now, it's up to him to lower his walk rate. Given Mazzone's belief in
the importance of getting strikes—he insists that the first pitch should
always be a fastball over the plate—it's easy to see that happening, and
Cabrera could be ready to break out.
Cabrera went on to post a 4.74 ERA in 148 innings. His strikeout rate
continued to improve, but his walk rate actually got worse, rising from 4.7
walks per game in 2005 to 6.1 in 2006. Last year, I bunched Cabrera in with a
few other pitchers, and wrote:
But Daniel Cabrera, Adam Loewen and Hayden Penn combined for a 5.72 ERA in
280 innings pitched. The news isn’t all bad—Cabrera is 26, and projects to
be a respectable No. 3 starter next season; Loewen is 23 and Penn is 22, but
the fact is, these guys are going to need to show something, and soon.
The best-case scenario for the Orioles is that Bedard continues to develop
into an ace, Cabrera finally has a better-than-average season, Loewen
improves on his already-decent peripherals and Penn pitches more in line with
his minor league record than his major league performances. If Jaret Wright
somehow turns it around, the O’s might have a pretty good staff.
But that is a lot of ifs, and realistically we should probably expect two of
those pitchers to fail.
So what actually happened? Bedard developed into an ace, Loewen’s season
ended after just six stats with a fractured elbow, Penn didn’t even make it
to the major leagues, and Cabrera went 9-18 with a 5.55 ERA.
At this point, it’s difficult to see Cabrera ever putting it all together,
but the stuff is still tantalizingly there. According to Baseball Info
Solutions, Cabrera’s fastball is sixth-hardest in the major leagues, at 94.3
mph, while Josh Kalk’s data shows a 95 mph fastball to go along with an 86
mph changeup and an 83 mph slider, which breaks more than nine inches away
from right-handed batters.
Unfortunately, only 58 percent of Cabrera’s pitches go for strikes, versus a
league average of 63. There’s no reason to expect that ever to change, so
Baltimore fans would probably be best served by giving up all hope when it
comes to Cabrera.
4. Is the minor league system any good?
There is some hope for the Orioles. Kevin Goldstein ranked their farm system
10th among all major league teams, writing that, “They drafted the best
college position player in Matt Wieters, and added a ton of talent in the
Erik Bedard trade.”
Wieters, the fifth overall pick in the 2007 draft, received a $6 million
signing bonus, the largest up-front bonus ever given to a draft pick. He is a
well-rounded hitter who batted .358/.480/.592 with Georgia Tech last season.
His defense gets knocked a bit, but overall, Wieters is already one of the
best prospects in baseball.
Beyond Wieters, the O’s farm system is fairly deep in pitching prospects,
though none are surefire major leaguers, something that probably makes
Baltimore fans worry given the team’s recent experiences with good but not
great pitching prospects. Chorye Spoone and Radhames Liz are the best of the
rest.
5. Will they avoid last place?
No. Our projections have the O’s finishing with 96 losses, a full 15 games
back of Tampa Bay. All other projection systems concur.
Unfortunately for Baltimore fans, this season is as good as gone, and the
Orioles would be best served if they concentrated on winning a few years down
the line, investing heavily in their minor league system now and trading away
any major leaguers who can generate a useful return.
David Gassko is a former consultant to a major league team, and a writer for
Heater Magazine. He welcomes comments via e-mail.
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